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> Feb 4-6 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Short Range (0-3 Days Out) Forecast
Storms R us
post Jan 27 2014, 08:06 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 27 2014, 05:49 PM) *
Lets keep an eye on the storm itself rather than details like this. But since it's available, here's GFS18z 24hr snow depth Tuesday 4th afternoon to Wednesday 5th afternoon
[attachment=221966:GFS2.jpg]



It was the 18z which from my understanding are never worth the grain of salt. Plus I don't see BWI/DC/DE getting much snow the rest of this season. The NAEFs show maybe just below normal which normal is mid 40's. More time for the midwest and northern Mid Atlantic to NNE.
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rtcemc
post Jan 27 2014, 08:44 PM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Jan 27 2014, 08:06 PM) *
It was the 18z which from my understanding are never worth the grain of salt. Plus I don't see BWI/DC/DE getting much snow the rest of this season. The NAEFs show maybe just below normal which normal is mid 40's. More time for the midwest and northern Mid Atlantic to NNE.

Said this last night on another thread 1- American call the 18z the Happy Hour GFS laugh.gif I do find that quite funny. 2-IMHO, the Feb pattern will favor the Williamsport, N'Eastern PA(basicly northern Pa), NY, and NE states(Conn, Mass, and north of course). Basically, the regions that have, for the most part, had to suffer watching southern areas get the snows. Areas south and east are going to struggle. May get a big one, but think interior storm track and constant struggles with changeover's. Ironic. Alomst exact opposite of most long range forecasts. Inland, many cutter's track first part winter, then shifting to colder, more southery storm track.
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d-_-b
post Jan 27 2014, 08:49 PM
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QUOTE(WinterWolf @ Jan 27 2014, 06:07 PM) *
OH Absolutely!! That Snow Bomb the Euro had at 12z is gone for sure on the 0z!! I have no doubt about that!! No way that scenario is hanging around more than one run! LOL.


I don't think it'll hang on to it either, but would love to be pleasantly surprised. This hasn't been the EURO's season that's for sure.


--------------------
2014-15: 2.6"
Departure from average to date: -0.8"
Departure from seasonal average (44"): -41.4"
(updated: 12/10/14)
Nov: 2.6"
Dec: trace

Past winters:
2013-14: 58.9" (+14.9" from average)
2012-13: 63.4" (+19.5" from average)
2011-12: 9.3" (-34.6" from average)
2010-11: 81" (+37.1" from average)
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LoveNYCSnow
post Jan 27 2014, 08:58 PM
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QUOTE(d-_-b @ Jan 27 2014, 02:02 PM) *
Quite different from the 00z run (and much more like yesterday's 12z run)

12z


00z



lol, I haven't had a storm like that since I moved here, I doubt it happens, but I do think big storms are likely around this time period but not sure who will benefit yet.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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JDClapper
post Jan 27 2014, 09:09 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 27 2014, 05:49 PM) *
Lets keep an eye on the storm itself rather than details like this. But since it's available, here's GFS18z 24hr snow depth Tuesday 4th afternoon to Wednesday 5th afternoon
[attachment=221966:GFS2.jpg]


This snow map makes me giggle. smile.gif I mean, look at the bulls-eye. I think a lot of fellow CPA-ers can see the irony in it... wink.gif

Pic didn't carry over.. quick link: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=1828618

This post has been edited by JDClapper: Jan 27 2014, 09:10 PM


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2014: 34"

'14-'15: 11" and counting...
'13-'14: 45"
'12-'13: 33"
'11-'12: 13"
'10-'11: 42"
'09-'10: 33"
'08-'09: 20"
'07-'08: 32"
'06-'07: 29"
'05-'06: 24"
'04-'05: 36"
'03-'04: 53"
'02-'03: 63"
'01-'02: 20"
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paletitsnow63
post Jan 27 2014, 09:12 PM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Jan 27 2014, 08:06 PM) *
It was the 18z which from my understanding are never worth the grain of salt. Plus I don't see BWI/DC/DE getting much snow the rest of this season. The NAEFs show maybe just below normal which normal is mid 40's. More time for the midwest and northern Mid Atlantic to NNE.

Why do you write off MD & DE so quickly? Historically speaking February is the best month for snowstorms in the MA & NE. That would include MD & DE.
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WinterWolf
post Jan 27 2014, 09:31 PM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Jan 27 2014, 09:12 PM) *
Why do you write off MD & DE so quickly? Historically speaking February is the best month for snowstorms in the MA & NE. That would include MD & DE.


I tried to tell him that in the long range thread too. He's not getting it! Maybe it's a mind game...you know, Prepare for the worst, and then perhaps be pleasantly surprised if things change for the better???
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WinterWolf
post Jan 27 2014, 09:34 PM
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QUOTE(d-_-b @ Jan 27 2014, 08:49 PM) *
I don't think it'll hang on to it either, but would love to be pleasantly surprised. This hasn't been the EURO's season that's for sure.


I'm betting/all in, that the Euro FLOPS back to a Snoozer at 0z!!! That model can't hang on to a storm this year to save it's life lol.

Maybe it comes back by Sunday or Monday?? Maybe not at all?
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jums300
post Jan 27 2014, 09:41 PM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Jan 27 2014, 08:06 PM) *
It was the 18z which from my understanding are never worth the grain of salt. Plus I don't see BWI/DC/DE getting much snow the rest of this season. The NAEFs show maybe just below normal which normal is mid 40's. More time for the midwest and northern Mid Atlantic to NNE.

I take offense to this post. tongue.gif February is our best month!


--------------------
February, 13th, 2014: 8" of snow fall in one hour...Never forget.
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USCG AST
post Jan 27 2014, 09:46 PM
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QUOTE(jums300 @ Jan 27 2014, 09:41 PM) *
I take offense to this post. tongue.gif February is our best month!

Normal temps in the forties produce latent heat and nice thermal gradients with a colder Atlantic.. Can produce some really strong storms (which one or two days below freezing can still factor into an avg or just below normal temps)


--------------------
"We make a living by what we get; we make a life by what we give" Churchill
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phillyfan
post Jan 27 2014, 10:27 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jan 27 2014, 08:44 PM) *
Said this last night on another thread 1- American call the 18z the Happy Hour GFS laugh.gif I do find that quite funny. 2-IMHO, the Feb pattern will favor the Williamsport, N'Eastern PA(basicly northern Pa), NY, and NE states(Conn, Mass, and north of course). Basically, the regions that have, for the most part, had to suffer watching southern areas get the snows. Areas south and east are going to struggle. May get a big one, but think interior storm track and constant struggles with changeover's. Ironic. Alomst exact opposite of most long range forecasts. Inland, many cutter's track first part winter, then shifting to colder, more southery storm track.


I will hate that if the storms go north after they've been southeast before this.


--------------------
Winter 2014 - 2015

First Flakes: 11/13
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/2, 12/8-9
Winter Storm Watch: 11/26-27
Winter Storm Warning: 11/26
Freezing Rain Advisory:
Ice Storm Warning:

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
Nov. 26: 3"
Dec. 11: 1.5"
Snowfall Total: 4.5"

Year by Year Totals
2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25 from avg.)
2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.)
2011-2012: 14" (-18" from avg.)
2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.)
2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.)
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LoveNYCSnow
post Jan 27 2014, 11:22 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jan 27 2014, 08:44 PM) *
Said this last night on another thread 1- American call the 18z the Happy Hour GFS laugh.gif I do find that quite funny. 2-IMHO, the Feb pattern will favor the Williamsport, N'Eastern PA(basicly northern Pa), NY, and NE states(Conn, Mass, and north of course). Basically, the regions that have, for the most part, had to suffer watching southern areas get the snows. Areas south and east are going to struggle. May get a big one, but think interior storm track and constant struggles with changeover's. Ironic. Alomst exact opposite of most long range forecasts. Inland, many cutter's track first part winter, then shifting to colder, more southery storm track.


This seems to be the general expectation. this is going to be a fun month though I think for all, I can see a lot of slop storms, going to be a battle between the SE ridge pushing storms west and cold airmasses that won't want to retreat I think.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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psu1313
post Jan 27 2014, 11:24 PM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Jan 27 2014, 08:06 PM) *
It was the 18z which from my understanding are never worth the grain of salt. Plus I don't see BWI/DC/DE getting much snow the rest of this season. The NAEFs show maybe just below normal which normal is mid 40's. More time for the midwest and northern Mid Atlantic to NNE.


This seems a bit premature. The next 2 weeks don't look promising for the MA, but until we see otherwise, i'm sticking with what we know this winter and expect these few weeks to be an intermission. We can have this discussion again Feb. 14th when we'll have a better look at how the rest of the winter will set up. Once you get into March, climatology doesn't favor south of the Mason/Dixon line.

As far as this storm, definitely going to be watching for ice storm signals for PA.

This post has been edited by psu1313: Jan 27 2014, 11:25 PM
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rtcemc
post Jan 27 2014, 11:27 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jan 27 2014, 10:27 PM) *
I will hate that if the storms go north after they've been southeast before this.

This isn't the thread for this as we should be talking about this storm - but it is slow in here so anyway. Please don't misinterpret, Feb is my favorite month as warm air starts to get injected which usually leads to big storms. Our snows are not over. Just think we will toe the line of mix/ice/ etc as I think the pattern favors inland - just hope most don't cut too far inland. Doesn't mean that's an absolute pattern of no coastals. Cold appears to reappear and POSSIBLY some blocking, so it's going to be a fun ride. Take this pattern anytime. No suppression,no endless cold and clippers only.
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rtcemc
post Jan 27 2014, 11:29 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Jan 27 2014, 11:22 PM) *
This seems to be the general expectation. this is going to be a fun month though I think for all, I can see a lot of slop storms, going to be a battle between the SE ridge pushing storms west and cold airmasses that won't want to retreat I think.

laugh.gif Didn't see this before I posted but we are in locked in agreement again.
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kpk33x
post Jan 27 2014, 11:30 PM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Jan 27 2014, 09:12 PM) *
Why do you write off MD & DE so quickly? Historically speaking February is the best month for snowstorms in the MA & NE. That would include MD & DE.


3 big reasons why you shouldn't give up after V-day:

2/16-19/2003
3/13/1993
2/19/1979

Depending on what part of MD/DE go ahead and throw in 3/31-4/1/1997

If talking about the whole of Feb, I kind of remember waist deep snow after 2 storms in a week way back in....2010 tongue.gif

This post has been edited by kpk33x: Jan 27 2014, 11:33 PM


--------------------
Winter '14-'15 - Intervale, NH
Snow
November - 15.75" - incl. 11.5" 11/26-27
December - 10.00" (as of 12/15)
Season total to date - 25.75"

First flakes - 11/2/14
Lowest temp of season - +3F on 12/8
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LoveNYCSnow
post Jan 27 2014, 11:34 PM
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back to this storm, gfs clobbers northern MA this particular run


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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WinterWolf
post Jan 27 2014, 11:39 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Jan 27 2014, 11:34 PM) *
back to this storm, gfs clobbers northern MA this particular run


Can you post? What about SNE? Well, I guess we have some Model agreement now lol. Euro definitley going to loose the storm now!
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LoveNYCSnow
post Jan 27 2014, 11:39 PM
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QUOTE(WinterWolf @ Jan 27 2014, 11:39 PM) *
Can you post? What about SNE? Well, I guess we have some Model agreement now lol. Euro definitley going to loose the storm now!


That's the most impressive frame, after that the storm kind of seems to fizzle out.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/...mb&hour=204


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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WinterWolf
post Jan 27 2014, 11:45 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Jan 27 2014, 11:39 PM) *
That's the most impressive frame, after that the storm kind of seems to fizzle out.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/...mb&hour=204


Thank YOU. How does a system with that much QPF just fizzle out lol? Well we know that's not correct.
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