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> March 12-14 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Possibility: 4-7 Day Medium Range
sheabird32
post Mar 7 2014, 01:45 PM
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This is getting me amped...Birthday is the 15th...hoping for some snow in the mountains so I can hit some fresh pow pow next Saturday. so much time and so many variables. I def feel like inland has a better chance of heavy snow to do mid March dynamics here, and I'm all for that.
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stretchct
post Mar 7 2014, 01:48 PM
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Euro v GFS v CMC - still a lot of work to do sorting this one out. Funny thing is that I'm used to seeing the Euro hold back energy out west, and the GFS string it out too far east. Its like being in opposite land. Makes me not want to trust either.
GFS
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Euro
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CMC
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http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html


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My lame attempt at a blog
If you're going through heck, keep going - Churchill (oddly the actual quote is not allowed and self corrects, despite the word showing up repeatedly in sermons and the Bible)
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Undertakerson
post Mar 7 2014, 01:52 PM
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And again - the Euro phases in the STJ energy that the other models ignore or dampen out. given the GFS bias to dampen STJ energy too quickly, have to side with the Euro for now (both give me about half a foot so this is not an IMBY preference)


--------------------
The greens of summer lushness, each turn to Autumn's blaze.
Glow now ever deeper in morning's foggy haze
Bring forth thy plate Pomona, to sustain through winter days.
- UTS
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 7 2014, 01:54 PM
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QUOTE(HV Snowstorm @ Mar 7 2014, 01:39 PM) *
lol is this the strongest Euro run yet? At least based on Precip and pressure maps, it looks like it may be.

No it's not, but it's been consistent on track and somewhat close in strength. Either way still a bomb
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d-_-b
post Mar 7 2014, 01:56 PM
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This is about as good of a run as I could ask for IMBY. From here on out it'll probably be an adjustment back to reality laugh.gif


--------------------
2014-15: 00.0"
Departure from average to date: 00.0"
Departure from seasonal average (44"): 00.0"
(updated: 10/01/14)

Past winters:
2013-14: 58.9" (+14.9" from average)
2012-13: 63.4" (+19.5" from average)
2011-12: 9.3" (-34.6" from average)
2010-11: 81" (+37.1" from average)
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jb1979
post Mar 7 2014, 01:58 PM
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QUOTE(jb1979 @ Mar 7 2014, 01:27 PM) *
No cave here...



How's this for consistency? Todays 12Z on top compared to yesterday's 12Z below. Like 30 miles off on track and temps. Pretty remarkable



This post has been edited by jb1979: Mar 7 2014, 02:06 PM
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--------------------
_____________________________________________
Winter 2014 - 66.3 inches. 2nd highest total on record
December 8 - 3.2 inches
December 10 - 3.2 inches
December 14 - 2.7 inches
December 16 - 1.2 inches
January 2-3 - 8.0 inches
January 21 - 10 inches
January 25 - 2.0 inches
January 29 - 1.0 inches
February 3 - 9 inches
February 9 - 3 inches
February 13-14 - 15 inches
February 15 - 1.0 inch
February 18 - 3.0 inches
March 3 - 2.0 inches
March 17 - 2.0 inches
_____________________________________________

Winter 2013 - 17.7 inches
Winter 2012 - 11.3 inches
Winter 2011 - 47.3 inches
Winter 2010 - 83.2 inches (Record)
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telejunkie
post Mar 7 2014, 02:02 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 7 2014, 01:38 PM) *
Nice


excellent Smithers....excellent
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--------------------
Winter '13-'14 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/15 - 11"
1/2 - 11"
1/25 - 5"
2/5 - 9"
2/14 - 17"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
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baltimorewisher8...
post Mar 7 2014, 02:03 PM
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QUOTE(jb1979 @ Mar 7 2014, 01:58 PM) *


If only I could remember the last time a model was so consistent 4-7 days before a storm. Just kidding but certainly taking a cautious approach on all accounts with this one. I'm still leaning towards a SNE NEPA. And NE snowstorm with a slop storm/rain further south but I'd be unwise to rule out any situation this far out.


--------------------
BG - All comments are just my opinion and all are FWIW

My View: Talk possibilities, not absolutes
--
Hoboken, NJ


First Flakes: 11/12/13 - No Accumulation
First 'Accumulating' Snow: 12/8/13 - 0.75"
First One Inch Snowfall: 12/10/13 - 1.25"
December 14th/15th Storm: 5.5'
December 17th Clipper(s): 1.5"
Christmas Eve Snow Squall: 0.50"
New Years Eve Snow Squall: Trace
January 2/3 Storm: 6.5"
January 21st Storm 10.5"
January 25 Clipper: 1"
January 29 Coastal: Coating
February 3rd Over-runner: 6.0"
February 4/5th Ice/Snow Storm: 4.0" Snow before 0.4" Ice (Thunder-Snow)
February 9th Clipper: 1.0"
February 13th Classic: 11" front end/2" backside = 13" (Thunder-Sleet)
February 15th Coastal: 2.5"
February 18th Overrunning: 2.0"

Seasonal Snowfall: 56"
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HV Snowstorm
post Mar 7 2014, 02:04 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 7 2014, 01:54 PM) *
No it's not, but it's been consistent on track and somewhat close in strength. Either way still a bomb


Your right but like you said either way 2mbs doesn't really matter, its a huge bomb yet again.
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 7 2014, 02:10 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Mar 7 2014, 02:02 PM) *
excellent Smithers....excellent

Haha nice. If the euro unfolds I think you're in a prime spot. Good luck. I think it's time the i95 shares the wealth and spreads the love north and nw to your area. You're long overdue

This post has been edited by PA ROAD DAWG: Mar 7 2014, 02:11 PM
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stretchct
post Mar 7 2014, 02:14 PM
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And then the UKMET looks like the GFS. KS/OK to KY to East of CCOD.




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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 7 2014, 02:15 PM
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Latest tid but from Steve d; who IMO is very knowledgeable. I have much respect for this forecast and opinions. He is also the newest and latest member to the eastern pa weather authority team, and is covering nj areas.

This post has been edited by PA ROAD DAWG: Mar 7 2014, 02:16 PM
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telejunkie
post Mar 7 2014, 02:16 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 7 2014, 02:10 PM) *
Haha nice. If the euro unfolds I think you're in a prime spot. Good luck. I think it's time the i95 shares the wealth and spreads the love north and nw to your area. You're long overdue


Thanks man, same sentiments to you. But actually it's north of me in the snow drought this winter. Had a friend visit from northern VT last week and couldn't believe how much snow we had. That is something that I've never heard from him before.
Even if this storm is a bust, this winter is still #2 on my list for snow totals since i moved here in '02-'03 (don't even have a guess total for that winter, but would estimate well over 100"). '10-'11 aside, it's been a *bleep*-poor decade for snow-lovers in southern VT...so in that regard making up for lost time. Euro holds and 5 o'clock quickly approaching...should be a happy hour indeed with my crew wink.gif

edit: whoops '07-'08 actually comes in at #2 with estimated total of 91" (before I got more AR with measuring snow) so this winter is actually #3.

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Mar 7 2014, 02:25 PM


--------------------
Winter '13-'14 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/15 - 11"
1/2 - 11"
1/25 - 5"
2/5 - 9"
2/14 - 17"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
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jlind11
post Mar 7 2014, 02:17 PM
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I live just northwest of Boston. If the 0Z/12Z EURO runs held their ground I would get one heck of a snowstorm 12+ easy. Unfortunatley I have seen this before from the EURO. 5-7 days out numerous times this year the EURO has had several runs in a row showing a crush job for southern new england, only to back off inside of 5 days.

Unfortunately I fully expect it to back off and come more in line with the GFS from a track perspective. The EURO has folded like a cheap suit many times this winter and I expect that again. While the GFS has been erratic at times I feel it's done a decent job in catching onto the track. The GFS does struggle with timing/strength of these systems but it has been ahead of the EURO track wise most of the winter. EURO started out the winter OK but has completely fallen apart.

I expect this storm to be pushed south by the cold push of air that is coming out of Canada - just like the last several storms have had happened. Certainly want the EURO to happen but don't buy it one bit right now.....
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RobB
post Mar 7 2014, 02:19 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 7 2014, 01:38 PM) *
Nice


Wow...That map is terribly overdone with snow amounts. Is there no good snowfall algorithm for the Euro?
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baltimorewisher8...
post Mar 7 2014, 02:28 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 7 2014, 02:15 PM) *
Latest tid but from Steve d; who IMO is very knowledgeable. I have much respect for this forecast and opinions. He is also the newest and latest member to the eastern pa weather authority team, and is covering nj areas.


He has been excellent this year with the exception of the last storm where he did absolutely terrible even while the storm was going on. Everyone screwed up that forecast but he probably busted the biggest of all the forecasts I saw esp since he waited so long to change it.

All that said I agree with his thinking I this one as you can see from my previous post. Again not bashing him at all, he's done great this winter but it's important to note even the best can be tripped up sometimes.


--------------------
BG - All comments are just my opinion and all are FWIW

My View: Talk possibilities, not absolutes
--
Hoboken, NJ


First Flakes: 11/12/13 - No Accumulation
First 'Accumulating' Snow: 12/8/13 - 0.75"
First One Inch Snowfall: 12/10/13 - 1.25"
December 14th/15th Storm: 5.5'
December 17th Clipper(s): 1.5"
Christmas Eve Snow Squall: 0.50"
New Years Eve Snow Squall: Trace
January 2/3 Storm: 6.5"
January 21st Storm 10.5"
January 25 Clipper: 1"
January 29 Coastal: Coating
February 3rd Over-runner: 6.0"
February 4/5th Ice/Snow Storm: 4.0" Snow before 0.4" Ice (Thunder-Snow)
February 9th Clipper: 1.0"
February 13th Classic: 11" front end/2" backside = 13" (Thunder-Sleet)
February 15th Coastal: 2.5"
February 18th Overrunning: 2.0"

Seasonal Snowfall: 56"
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 7 2014, 02:28 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Mar 7 2014, 02:19 PM) *
Wow...That map is terribly overdone with snow amounts. Is there no good snowfall algorithm for the Euro?

How? It's 1-2" of qpf liquid? Throw in ratios north and west of the surface lp and that seems right.
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Storms R us
post Mar 7 2014, 02:33 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 7 2014, 01:38 PM) *
Nice


Snow looks be coming south little bit at a time. Who's right?
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 7 2014, 02:36 PM
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Most pkaces upstate are 1-1.25"..Some lolipops of 1.5"

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Mar 7 2014, 02:38 PM


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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Storms R us
post Mar 7 2014, 02:36 PM
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QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Mar 7 2014, 02:03 PM) *
If only I could remember the last time a model was so consistent 4-7 days before a storm. Just kidding but certainly taking a cautious approach on all accounts with this one. I'm still leaning towards a SNE NEPA. And NE snowstorm with a slop storm/rain further south but I'd be unwise to rule out any situation this far out.


Exactly and would be funny if it also went south or a little bit more NE sooner.
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