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> Bering Sea Rule, Typhoon Rule, and the Recurring Rossby Wave Train, Ongoing research, analysis, and forecasting based on the BSR/TR/RRWT
jdrenken
post Nov 18 2015, 04:45 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 18 2015, 02:24 PM) *
Quite the Nina look to end the month


Just to be sure...here is the 18 day lag. Earlier one was 20.

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Attached File  06nov_11nov_bsr_anomaly.png ( 11.08K ) Number of downloads: 1
 


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JDClapper
post Nov 18 2015, 06:43 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Nov 18 2015, 01:27 PM) *
I made the switch. Today's run will show the change. Check the site around 2PM CST. smile.gif


Flippin love it..

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Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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JDClapper
post Nov 18 2015, 07:07 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 12 2015, 09:06 AM) *
aka...Miller B? wink.gif

I see a post in the near future. laugh.gif



QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 12 2015, 10:03 AM) *


OK, so yeah..it's the 18z GFS .. a "storm" didn't appear on the 12z but it did look like there was a little vorticity coming from the MN region, anyways, plenty of time to sort it all out. I've kept my eye out for this one...

Attached File  1.png ( 158.18K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  2.png ( 159.32K ) Number of downloads: 1


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Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

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OSNW3
post Nov 18 2015, 10:55 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 18 2015, 05:43 PM) *
Flippin love it..

Attached File  a.gif ( 65.37K ) Number of downloads: 2


I am glad to read it. Thank you for the suggestion. smile.gif


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OSNW3
post Nov 18 2015, 11:00 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 15 2015, 02:41 PM) *
Looks like cooler than average temps for the NE may persist through the first few days of December, after Thanksgiving...

http://beringsearule.blogspot.com/p/bsr-forecast-maps.html

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[attachment=269894:4.jpg]
[attachment=269895:5.jpg]
[attachment=269896:6.jpg]
[attachment=269897:7.jpg]






This post has been edited by OSNW3: Nov 18 2015, 11:03 PM


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jdrenken
post Nov 19 2015, 12:37 AM
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WISN-Milwaukee

QUOTE
Winter Forecast

Temperatures = Above Average

Discussion: Temperatures should finish above average this winter season. A warm fall is hard to brush aside when looking at the overall pattern. A strong El Nino currently in place should aide in our above average temperature forecast. You will shiver at times as quick shots of cold are likely throughout the winter, but nothing as long lasting as the previous two years. Just don't expect mild temperatures all winter! Our area should see fewer sub-zero low temperatures when compared to last winter.

Snowfall = 35 to 45 inches

Discussion: Snowfall totals this winter should finish below our annual average of 46.9". A southwest flow aloft should allow a number of systems to deliver ample moisture within parts of the pattern. However, I think we battle precipitation type at times. The snowiest part of winter may occur from the second half of January through February. An overall wetter winter is expected with total precipitation(rain and melted down snow) finishing near or slightly above average.

Some wildcards that may impact our final snowfall accuracy include lake effect snow and precipitation type. Lake effect snow is always a tough variable to pinpoint in a long range forecast. Barring a heavy lake effect snow event, most inland locations should finish with a higher snow total than a majority of lakeshore locations. Again this is due to temperatures being a touch colder inland vs lake. It's all about precipitation type! Less rain & mix and more snow will result in a slightly higher snow total.


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Gnutella
post Nov 19 2015, 12:48 AM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Nov 18 2015, 04:21 PM) *
Southeast ridging much?


sad.gif
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jdrenken
post Nov 19 2015, 01:42 AM
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Just throwing it out there...

North Pacific 00z 06NOV15


European CONUS 00z 06NOV15


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StL weatherjunki...
post Nov 19 2015, 11:21 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 19 2015, 02:42 AM) *
Just throwing it out there...

North Pacific 00z 06NOV15


European CONUS 00z 06NOV15

Verrryyyyy interesting indeed, I'm starting to imagine the correlation points a bit better and as a result I am connecting the weather features a bit better too. Suggests a positive tilt trough lee of the Rockies with a deep trough over the Rockies and a little stretching of the imagination correlates the 578 dm low with the closed/cut off low east of Florida.

Perhaps the 509 dm low in the top left of the OPC analysis suggests the Euro is too fast/far east with the upper level low centered near Idaho? Also kind of curious about the 575 dm low east of Japan on the OPC analysis.

I remember you saying you tried many many potential correlation points, but purely out of curiosity have you tried to find any correlation points over the open ocean. I understand that you need surface stations to compare and this particular case suggests Bermuda might not be that bad, or maybe there are some buoys that could be compared?


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jdrenken
post Nov 19 2015, 12:22 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Nov 19 2015, 10:21 AM) *
Verrryyyyy interesting indeed, I'm starting to imagine the correlation points a bit better and as a result I am connecting the weather features a bit better too. Suggests a positive tilt trough lee of the Rockies with a deep trough over the Rockies and a little stretching of the imagination correlates the 578 dm low with the closed/cut off low east of Florida.

Perhaps the 509 dm low in the top left of the OPC analysis suggests the Euro is too fast/far east with the upper level low centered near Idaho? Also kind of curious about the 575 dm low east of Japan on the OPC analysis.

I remember you saying you tried many many potential correlation points, but purely out of curiosity have you tried to find any correlation points over the open ocean. I understand that you need surface stations to compare and this particular case suggests Bermuda might not be that bad, or maybe there are some buoys that could be compared?


The issue that we run into is how it's the 500mb that we depend on most of the time. Maybe you could volunteer to launch balloons from those buoys. wink.gif laugh.gif


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OSNW3
post Nov 19 2015, 03:51 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Nov 19 2015, 10:21 AM) *
I remember you saying you tried many many potential correlation points, but purely out of curiosity have you tried to find any correlation points over the open ocean. I understand that you need surface stations to compare and this particular case suggests Bermuda might not be that bad, or maybe there are some buoys that could be compared?


By far I am the laziest of the crew. I have always stated, if someone can find me a reliable data source that takes less than minimal effort to auto extract, I am game.

BSR correlation framework is already in place. Feed me data. Results within minutes. Lol.


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OSNW3
post Nov 19 2015, 09:45 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 18 2015, 11:37 PM) *


They hyped the snot out of that piece. But, I guess that is the nature of the biz.

https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/667186289846956032


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ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 20 2015, 03:08 PM
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TR has a system coming through around December 3 or 4.



Then possibly a couple more troughs dipping into the west sometime between the 7th to 10th



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OSNW3
post Nov 20 2015, 03:23 PM
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BSR


RRWT


Will update the BSR once it is realized.



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ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 20 2015, 03:28 PM
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That's a really nasty looking trough on December 10. Neat that we have TR and BSR support.

I'm really digging all these western troughs. Would love to see this continue throughout the winter. Probably won't though because strong Nino winter patterns tend to change from one half to the other.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Nov 20 2015, 03:32 PM


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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/11/17)
Slight risks: 3 (Last: 4/29/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
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ohiobuckeye45
post Nov 20 2015, 03:28 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Nov 20 2015, 03:23 PM) *
BSR
[img]http://www.theplayerstour.net/socialmedia/wow83.pn

RRWT
[img]http://www.theplayerstour.net/socialmedia/wow82

Will update the BSR once it is realized.

that one would make for a MW headliner
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OSNW3
post Nov 20 2015, 03:50 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 20 2015, 02:28 PM) *
That's a really nasty looking trough on December 10. Neat that we have TR and BSR support.


Indeed. I think JD says the TR verifies the BSR, so there should be agreement there. And with timing of the pattern using the GFS +144 we could add a day or two to your TR connection.


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OSNW3
post Nov 20 2015, 03:54 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Nov 20 2015, 02:28 PM) *
that one would make for a MW headliner


In regard to the RRWT, check out the connection dates in the image. MW troughs, seasonally conditioned. We shall see. smile.gif


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ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 20 2015, 05:34 PM
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Nasty system in the Bering. I'm guessing the severe threat would be west of the Ohio valley... Arkansas/Louisiana/Missouri... maybe Illinois if we get good enough moisture return. But severe weather climatology suggests that's unlikely.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Nov 20 2015, 05:34 PM


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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/11/17)
Slight risks: 3 (Last: 4/29/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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jdrenken
post Nov 20 2015, 05:38 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 20 2015, 04:34 PM) *
Nasty system in the Bering. I'm guessing the severe threat would be west of the Ohio valley... Arkansas/Louisiana/Missouri... maybe Illinois if we get good enough moisture return. But severe weather climatology suggests that's unlikely.




You are too far West on the severe weather call. Look at the TN Valley on South.


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