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> Bering Sea Rule and Typhoon Rule and Southern Oscillation Index Delta, Forecasting based on the BSR and TR and SOID
JDClapper
post Nov 21 2015, 06:31 AM
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http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2033778

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 11 2015, 08:45 PM) *
Post on 10/22: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2031824

Post on 10/25: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2032038

Post on 10/28: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2032441

Post on 11/1: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2032756

Post on 11/4 http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2032988

Post on 11/8 (below): http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2033338
The results are in.. what's the BSR think of the Thanksgiving period?

Same as my last post a few days ago.. ridge east & trough west early then, storminess moves through the Plains flattening the east ridge and cooling things down a bit. Give or take a day or two, of course.

http://beringsearule.blogspot.com/p/bsr-forecast-maps.html

[attachment=269778:1.jpg]

[attachment=269779:2.jpg]

[attachment=269780:3.jpg]

[attachment=269781:4.jpg]

[attachment=269782:5.jpg]


Coming up this period .. looking more like a 20-21 correlation on the EC?

Attached File  1.png ( 130.69K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  2.png ( 136.55K ) Number of downloads: 2

Attached File  3.png ( 138.06K ) Number of downloads: 2

Attached File  4.png ( 129.82K ) Number of downloads: 2

Attached File  5.png ( 123.51K ) Number of downloads: 2


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Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Undertakerson
post Nov 21 2015, 06:45 AM
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OK guys, so help me out here... do these two images correlate? (top image 12zGFS 11/18 - bottom image 06zGFS 11/21)

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ak_5.png ( 169.43K ) Number of downloads: 4



Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_51.png ( 169.43K ) Number of downloads: 5


lag would be a tick under the 18D, but there is a "tolerance" is there not?

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OSNW3
post Nov 21 2015, 08:14 AM
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Awesnap.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/...895560687456256

Working on the new overlay now. East Asia Rule (aka TR).


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jdrenken
post Nov 21 2015, 10:00 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Nov 21 2015, 07:14 AM) *
Awesnap.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/...895560687456256

Working on the new overlay now. East Asia Rule (aka TR).



Now...if we can only get our correlation points matching as close to the BSR!


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jdrenken
post Nov 21 2015, 10:04 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 21 2015, 05:45 AM) *
OK guys, so help me out here... do these two images correlate? (top image 12zGFS 11/18 - bottom image 06zGFS 11/21)

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ak_5.png ( 169.43K ) Number of downloads: 4

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_51.png ( 169.43K ) Number of downloads: 5


lag would be a tick under the 18D, but there is a "tolerance" is there not?


The 06z shows a little progressive bias there.





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OSNW3
post Nov 21 2015, 10:31 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 21 2015, 09:00 AM) *
Now...if we can only get our correlation points matching as close to the BSR!


No kidding. I have two. Japan is the the East Coast of the CONUS. Some place in South Korea is Nashville, TN. Lock image on the EC and J connection, then scale to get TN to SK. Lol.




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OSNW3
post Nov 21 2015, 10:32 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 21 2015, 05:31 AM) *
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2033778
Coming up this period .. looking more like a 20-21 correlation on the EC?

Attached File  1.png ( 130.69K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  2.png ( 136.55K ) Number of downloads: 2

Attached File  3.png ( 138.06K ) Number of downloads: 2

Attached File  4.png ( 129.82K ) Number of downloads: 2

Attached File  5.png ( 123.51K ) Number of downloads: 2


ROC Trend looks slow compared to your modeled images as well.



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Undertakerson
post Nov 21 2015, 10:58 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 21 2015, 10:04 AM) *
The 06z shows a little progressive bias there.




Gee - imagine that. rolleyes.gif

Thanks for the perspective.
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OSNW3
post Nov 21 2015, 11:27 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 21 2015, 05:45 AM) *
OK guys, so help me out here... do these two images correlate? (top image 12zGFS 11/18 - bottom image 06zGFS 11/21)

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ak_5.png ( 169.43K ) Number of downloads: 4

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_51.png ( 169.43K ) Number of downloads: 5


lag would be a tick under the 18D, but there is a "tolerance" is there not?


QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 21 2015, 09:04 AM) *
The 06z shows a little progressive bias there.





Surface (same time frame) based on BSR



EDIT: Seems JD posted the dynamic H5 images from the BSR blog. The surface images I posted are static for the dates referred to in the original post from Undertakerson.

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Nov 21 2015, 09:42 PM


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JDClapper
post Nov 21 2015, 04:48 PM
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http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2033778

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Nov 21 2015, 10:32 AM) *
ROC Trend looks slow compared to your modeled images as well.



Or maybe 19.5 days, based on the 12z GFS .. ohmy.gif smile.gif

Attached File  1.png ( 130.14K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  2.png ( 135.34K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  3.png ( 135.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by JDClapper: Nov 21 2015, 04:49 PM


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 21 2015, 08:14 PM
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Watching the surface patterns for the Bering for the system that's supposed to hit us around 12/10. The system of interest in this image is the one that's "rapidly intensifying"

As for severe potential with this system, I'd imagine it's a good sign that there's a weak system ahead of it that could draw up some moisture to prime the environment. I might be taking the correlation too literally, but if you want a cool season severe event, you'd want this weak system to precede the big one... as long as the front doesn't sweep too far south.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 1 2015, 04:26 PM


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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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jdrenken
post Nov 21 2015, 08:25 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 21 2015, 07:14 PM) *
Watching the surface patterns for the Bering for the system that's supposed to hit us around 10/10. The system of interest in this image is the one that's "rapidly intensifying"

As for severe potential with this system, I'd imagine it's a good sign that there's a weak system ahead of it that could draw up some moisture to prime the environment. I might be taking the correlation too literally, but if you want a cool season severe event, you'd want this weak system to precede the big one... as long as the front doesn't sweep too far south.



I wish the 24hr forecast was more than east Pacific for this reason. The issue is how quickly it occludes.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  image03.gif ( 192.94K ) Number of downloads: 1
 


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ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 21 2015, 08:25 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 21 2015, 08:25 PM) *
I wish the 24hr forecast was more than east Pacific for this reason. The issue is how quickly it occludes.

Exactly. That's why I'm gonna keep a tab open so I can hope to catch the latest surface observations. Looks like the 21z update should come soon. If there's no 21z update, certainly the 00z will be up by Midnight

500mb looks good though


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Nov 21 2015, 08:26 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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OSNW3
post Nov 22 2015, 07:53 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Nov 18 2015, 07:58 AM) *
LRC preliminary winter forecast. In depth forecast will be out Dec. 2nd

Above average temps for the most part with a few major cold outbreaks.

[attachment=270019:Screensh...07_55_38.png]

One of the 2 main storm tracks that will repeat several times

[attachment=270020:Screensh...07_55_24.png]

Calling for above average temps, rain and snow for the KC area with ine major ice storm

[attachment=270021:Screensh...07_55_15.png]


QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Nov 18 2015, 08:15 AM) *
And the Heady Pattern winter forecast will be out on Nov. 23rd


The Lezak Recurring Cycle and Heady Pattern length based on OSNW3 frequency auto discovery: http://osnw3isorr.blogspot.com/2015/11/the...-and-heady.html (new blog post) #RRWT


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OSNW3
post Nov 22 2015, 09:46 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 18 2015, 06:07 PM) *
OK, so yeah..it's the 18z GFS .. a "storm" didn't appear on the 12z but it did look like there was a little vorticity coming from the MN region, anyways, plenty of time to sort it all out. I've kept my eye out for this one...

[attachment=270072:1.png]

[attachment=270073:2.png]


December 2nd

East Asia Rule (TR)


Verifies the Bering Sea Rule (BSR)


Verifies the Recurring Rossby Wave Train (RRWT)


Individual RRWT maps




RRWT is based on the 15 day mode frequency, 12/2 ~45 is 10/17 ~36 is 09/12 ~41 is 08/03.

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Nov 22 2015, 10:01 AM


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jdrenken
post Nov 22 2015, 10:07 AM
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32/51 European EPS members give Columbia, MO snow to start December!


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 22 2015, 11:32 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 21 2015, 08:25 PM) *
I wish the 24hr forecast was more than east Pacific for this reason. The issue is how quickly it occludes.

What a shame


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 22 2015, 02:04 PM
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Did someone say something about a system around the 9th? Well, well, well...




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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jdrenken
post Nov 22 2015, 04:30 PM
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Late November-Early December Storm update


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 22 2015, 05:05 PM
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Occlusion FTL



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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