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> November 26-29 Plains/MW/GL/OV Thanksgiving Clipper, Typhoon Nuri Correlation Experimental Thread: Thanks For Playing Along
ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 3 2014, 09:03 AM
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EDIT: First off, please read this
QUOTE
QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Nov 5 2014, 08:06 PM) *
I agree, while the new "organic forecasting" and such is great. Even though most of it is over my head, threads such as this should be in the long range forecast forum.

While a storm is likely to impact a part of the US during this time frame, I hope this isn't the new trend. The 8-15 day long range threads get to be a bit much at times, but again I understand new forecasting is occurring.

I still follow but it's a bit extreme, soon we'll have threads for the repeat wave in early January or whenever it will be started before this system ever starts.


I agree with you. There could be some bad unintended consequences from this... I should've consulted with more people to get more opinions before doing it. I don't plan on doing this again... but I can't speak for others. It's a very slippery slope... so let me take this time to advise people not to do what I did here.

As I stated early on, based on the amount of discussion going on in the Fall thread and the possible significance of the storm, I felt it was better to have a separate discussion for this system than keeping it in the LRC/Organic forecasting/Fall threads. Again, I didn't fully realize the possible unintended consequences from this, and I should've messaged JD about it before opening the thread.

Sorry about that... but it's too late to reverse it now.
"Game on."


Original discussion:

Going out on a limb here. The long-range models have been detecting a possibly significant system in the Bering sea in the time frame of November 6-9. Using the BSR, we can expect this system around the 26th and 29th in the east US. There's been much discussion in the Fall thread about it, so I think it's best to open a thread for it rather than continue to fill up the Fall thread and drown out other discussions. After all, a thread would likely be opened for this time frame in 20 days anyway.

So many variables are coming together to create this system.
From how I understand it, here's the synopsis.

Currently, there's a system north of Japan that's bombing out. It'll continue to shift north into eastern Siberia. Over time, the system will split into two deep systems (see the second image). Due to a huge high pressure system over the Arctic (strongly negative AO) and other upper-latitudinal blocking, they'll stay nearly stationary in east Siberia.



Meanwhile, Super Typhoon Nuri is being influenced by 2 very strong high pressures; one over east Asia, causing it to stay away from mainland. The other one is in the north-central Pacific, which is drawing the system northeast due to its clockwise flow.



The Typhoon then meets up with the systems in east Siberia, and they combine Friday evening... making a huge system.



Two important things;

1) We're still ~120 hours away from this system reaching the climax overseas. The models will most likely "weaken" the system a bit. However, "weaken" is used relatively in this case... because even if you knock off 30mb from what's being shown, it's still a very, very deep system.

2) The Bering Sea Rule is used to forecast the general weather pattern 20 days ahead of time... which means the weather systems won't correlate 1-to-1. In other words, if an observed system's pressure is 960mb in the Bering, the system that shows up in the east US will be weaker than 960mb, but still a deep system.

Records:
Deepest extratropical cyclone on record: 916mb (December 15, 1986)
Deepest extratropical cyclone recorded in the US: 953mb (October 26-27, 2010)

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Nov 27 2014, 01:03 PM


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The Snowman
post Nov 3 2014, 09:36 AM
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This must be a new record for long range threads, but with the excessive discussion in the Fall thread, i agree, it was warranted.

Game on.


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snow4ever
post Nov 3 2014, 09:43 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Nov 3 2014, 08:36 AM) *
This must be a new record for long range threads, but with the excessive discussion in the Fall thread, i agree, it was warranted.

Game on.

I agree....and good test for BSR.....
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snow4ever
post Nov 3 2014, 09:49 AM
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I love this view........ http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/...10.52,27.45,659
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ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 3 2014, 09:54 AM
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QUOTE(snow4ever @ Nov 3 2014, 10:49 AM) *

Indeed. I find it interesting how Super Typhoon Nuri is apparently in the jet stream now.

I can't wait until these systems combine. Euro and GFS have this system becoming so deep that it creates an eye.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 10 (Last: 5/28/17)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 3 2014, 10:24 AM
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12z GFS has initiated. Gotta leave for class soon.


--------------------
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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 10 (Last: 5/28/17)
Slight risks: 7 (Last: 5/27/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
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OSNW3
post Nov 3 2014, 10:42 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Nov 2 2014, 01:48 AM) *


Perfect timing as this feature could fall inside the 54-60 day harmonic, or what some people call the LRC or HP. WCONUS shows it strengthening. Start claiming victory on your blog now, before GL and DH. wink.gif

EDIT: This, of course - http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20141005.html


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ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 3 2014, 04:32 PM
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Latest from OPC


WPC now has a 936mb system in the Bering sea ohmy.gif





QUOTE
ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 PM EST MON NOV 03 2014

VALID 12Z FRI NOV 07 2014 - 12Z TUE NOV 11 2014

...REMNANTS OF TYPHOON NURI TO AFFECT THE ALEUTIANS AS AN INTENSE
EXTRATROPICAL STORM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...

THE FORECAST OVER ALASKA WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION OF SUPER TYPHOON NURI EAST OF JAPAN AND THEN INTO THE
BERING SEA AS IT PHASES WITH TROUGHING EXITING NORTHEAST ASIA. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS WITH
ITS CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPING AS LOW AS THE 910S MB /NEAR A RECORD
FOR MIN MSLP OUTSIDE A TROPICAL SYSTEM/
BUT EVEN THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS SHOW NEAR 950MB. THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RANGE FROM THE 910S TO
THE 950S MB BUT ARE SPREAD OUT OVER THE REGION. A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS... 06Z GEFS... AND 00Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN OFFERED A GOOD BALANCE
BETWEEN INTENSITY /930S MB/ AND LOCATION... JUST NORTH OF THE
ENSEMBLE AVERAGE POSITION 24 HRS AGO. WORST AFFECTS SHOULD BE WEST
OF ANY POPULATED ISLANDS /WEST OF ADAK/ WHERE WINDS COULD EASILY
ECLIPSE HURRICANE FORCE.


EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL NOT BE DEVOID OF WEATHER... AND...
IN FACT... POSE THE LARGER FORECAST CHALLENGE. WESTERN CANADIAN
RIDGING SHOULD BE LOATHE TO RETREAT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE... AND
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. LEAD SYSTEM SHOULD GET
HUNG UP SOUTH OF 50N AS THE JET JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NURI
REMNANTS /NEAR 200 KTS/
BREAKS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND REINFORCES A
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION... AND A SW TO NE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH ABOUT SATURDAY BEFORE THERE MAY BE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO KICK SOME ENERGY EASTWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
HOWEVER... ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD FORMING A CLOSED LOW NEAR
35N/150W LATE SATURDAY AS THE DEEP SFC LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE
BERING. 12Z GFS MIGHT BE TOO QUICK TO BRING THE SFC WAVE TOWARD
THE PANHANDLE. EVENTUALLY... WITH RIDGING FORECAST TO BLOCK
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LEAD BOUNDARY... THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SHOULD COMBINE... IN SOME FASHION... AND ATTEMPT TO PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TREND TOWARD
THE ECMWF AND GEFS MEANS WITH TIME SMOOTHED OUT ANY SHORTWAVES
THAT MAY ROTATE AROUND THE FILLING UPPER LOW IN THE BERING SEA SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO EVENTUALLY PAINT IN SOME SMALLER SYSTEMS
DOWN THE ROAD. SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE A WET PERIOD FROM
SOUTHERN COASTAL AK DOWN ALONG THE PANHANDLE.


This is insane.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Nov 3 2014, 04:43 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 10 (Last: 5/28/17)
Slight risks: 7 (Last: 5/27/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
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snowlover2
post Nov 3 2014, 04:51 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Nov 3 2014, 10:36 AM) *
This must be a new record for long range threads, but with the excessive discussion in the Fall thread, i agree, it was warranted.

Game on.

Has to be. Never seen a thread for Thanksgiving weekend this far in advance. We'll see how it goes.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 3 2014, 04:56 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Nov 3 2014, 05:51 PM) *
Has to be. Never seen a thread for Thanksgiving weekend this far in advance. We'll see how it goes.

Well I am known to be a trend setter wink.gif

(not really mellow.gif )

Glad to see others agree with me on the idea of creating a thread this early. I'm very interested to see how this turns out.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Nov 3 2014, 04:58 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 10 (Last: 5/28/17)
Slight risks: 7 (Last: 5/27/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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ohiobuckeye45
post Nov 3 2014, 05:59 PM
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this is insane....but I like it laugh.gif so if the system were correlated be be in the MW most of this thread would be on the severe weather side of things in the great lakes regions followed by a huge cold shot

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Nov 3 2014, 06:00 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 3 2014, 06:44 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Nov 3 2014, 06:59 PM) *
this is insane....but I like it laugh.gif so if the system were correlated be be in the MW most of this thread would be on the severe weather side of things in the great lakes regions followed by a huge cold shot

Naturally, when I think of this system in the Midwest, October 26/27, 2010 comes to mind. Obviously we still need to observe the system in the Bering... but as long as the models don't make a drastic change like making it into a 990mb system, the upper-level winds should be amazing. Even the areas under the October 26/27 bomb experienced widespread non-thunderstorm wind gusts.



Personally, I'm trying not to think about the severe weather potential until this system is observed in the Bering. Even then, I'd call that daydreaming. I'm not saying you shouldn't do it--I just don't want to tease myself yet. smile.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Nov 3 2014, 06:52 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 10 (Last: 5/28/17)
Slight risks: 7 (Last: 5/27/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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The Snowman
post Nov 3 2014, 06:57 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 3 2014, 04:32 PM) *
Latest from OPC


WPC now has a 936mb system in the Bering sea ohmy.gif




This is insane.

ECMWF ensembles also deepening with time.

It's too late to hold back excitement about the storm in the Bering Sea, much less the effects here at home (at least on my end). Let's see what the system ends up doing.

This post has been edited by The Snowman: Nov 3 2014, 06:58 PM


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MaineJay
post Nov 3 2014, 07:32 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Nov 3 2014, 06:57 PM) *
ECMWF ensembles also deepening with time.

It's too late to hold back excitement about the storm in the Bering Sea, much less the effects here at home (at least on my end). Let's see what the system ends up doing.


Indeed, somewhere south of 948mb if I'm extrapolating properly.

Attached Image
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...M=0&PERIOD=

I applaud your ambitious endeavor CV, I'll be spectating for sure..

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Nov 3 2014, 07:33 PM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 3 2014, 07:55 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 3 2014, 08:32 PM) *
Indeed, somewhere south of 948mb if I'm extrapolating properly.

Attached Image
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...M=0&PERIOD=

I applaud your ambitious endeavor CV, I'll be spectating for sure..

Lol, thanks much smile.gif this will be a good one to watch.

Current view of the 2 systems
500mb


850mb


http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/...94.95,53.85,659

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/...94.95,53.85,659


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 10 (Last: 5/28/17)
Slight risks: 7 (Last: 5/27/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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jdrenken
post Nov 3 2014, 08:20 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 3 2014, 03:32 PM) *
Latest from OPC


WPC now has a 936mb system in the Bering sea ohmy.gif




This is insane.


Actually...the SLP is lower than 936mb, but they can't label it due to the tightened isobars. OPC just updated...

927mb
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


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ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 3 2014, 08:25 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 3 2014, 09:20 PM) *
Actually...the SLP is lower than 936mb, but they can't label it due to the tightened isobars. OPC just updated...

927mb

huh.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 10 (Last: 5/28/17)
Slight risks: 7 (Last: 5/27/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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The Snowman
post Nov 3 2014, 08:25 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 3 2014, 08:20 PM) *
Actually...the SLP is lower than 936mb, but they can't label it due to the tightened isobars. OPC just updated...

927mb

Running out of adjectives to describe this thread & the guidance.

November 8th can't come soon enough to see whether this storm verifies or not.


--------------------
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2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
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ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 3 2014, 08:30 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Nov 3 2014, 09:25 PM) *
Running out of adjectives to describe this thread & the guidance.

November 8th can't come soon enough to see whether this storm verifies or not.

Less than 12 hours into the thread and you're already out of adjectives laugh.gif . Well, after the 8th comes, you'll have ~15 more days to come up with more before this monster starts appearing on the models.

May I suggest... www.thesaurus.com? smile.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Nov 3 2014, 08:34 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 10 (Last: 5/28/17)
Slight risks: 7 (Last: 5/27/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ohiobuckeye45
post Nov 3 2014, 08:44 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 3 2014, 06:44 PM) *
Naturally, when I think of this system in the Midwest, October 26/27, 2010 comes to mind. Obviously we still need to observe the system in the Bering... but as long as the models don't make a drastic change like making it into a 990mb system, the upper-level winds should be amazing. Even the areas under the October 26/27 bomb experienced widespread non-thunderstorm wind gusts.

]http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dlh/StormSummaries/2010/october26/regionalimpactsmap.PNG[/img]

Personally, I'm trying not to think about the severe weather potential until this system is observed in the Bering. Even then, I'd call that daydreaming. I'm not saying you shouldn't do it--I just don't want to tease myself yet. smile.gif

this is about exactly what I pictured in my head

although it would be nice to see a more eastward moving storm

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Nov 3 2014, 08:48 PM
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