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> Jan 12-14th 2015 Mid Atl/NE Winter Storm, Cogitation: short range (0-3 days) forecasts
telejunkie
post Jan 3 2015, 11:13 PM
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While Euro has been showing a whole lot of SHP for the EC...GFS has been advertising a minor interaction of northern & southern streams. EPO looks to go positive from where I'm standing for at least the middle part of January, so this may be the eastern CONUS's last chance for snow for several week. PNA looks to be on our side, so here's to hoping GFS (& maybe JD?) are onto something...

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Jan 10 2015, 02:54 PM
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--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9"
12/12 - 9”
12/22 - 5”
12/25 - 10"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 42”

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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SnowMan11
post Jan 4 2015, 01:42 AM
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Euro has light snow for a lot of the area


--------------------
Anthony

2017-2018 Snowfall


12/9-10/17 : 3.6 "
12/14/17 : 1.2 "
12/15/17 : 1.5"
12/30/17 : 1.0"
1/4/18 : 12.2"
Total : 18.5 "
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telejunkie
post Jan 4 2015, 11:38 AM
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12z GFS slower bringing this one up out the Gulf...but still has the southern SLP originate south of Brownsville, TX on the 9th, rides over the FL panhandle and exits from the Carolina coast...not enough height rise or northern stream interaction to get it to come up the coast though.

Attached Image


Here is why I expect this to change...northern stream energy has been consistently stronger than modeled in this range, look no further that this storm we are dealing with right now. Euro had it as a southern slider at this range...

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Jan 4 2015, 11:46 AM


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9"
12/12 - 9”
12/22 - 5”
12/25 - 10"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 42”

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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Violant V
post Jan 4 2015, 01:07 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Jan 4 2015, 11:38 AM) *
12z GFS slower bringing this one up out the Gulf...but still has the southern SLP originate south of Brownsville, TX on the 9th, rides over the FL panhandle and exits from the Carolina coast...not enough height rise or northern stream interaction to get it to come up the coast though.

Attached Image


Here is why I expect this to change...northern stream energy has been consistently stronger than modeled in this range, look no further that this storm we are dealing with right now. Euro had it as a southern slider at this range...

Seems a few mets have mentioned this potential this am and last night, saying signf storm is possible on the EC in Day 10


--------------------
AV
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LUCC
post Jan 4 2015, 01:52 PM
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QUOTE(Violant V @ Jan 4 2015, 01:07 PM) *
Seems a few mets have mentioned this potential this am and last night, saying signf storm is possible on the EC in Day 10

This has been the story this winter, in the two week timeframe it will get cold and snowy, still waiting......

This threat takes us into mid Jan, if this doesn't pan out, the next will be end of Jan more than likely.

This post has been edited by LUCC: Jan 4 2015, 01:54 PM


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"
12/13-14 - 1.5"
12/15 - 2.25"
12/30 - 4"
1/4/18 - 6.5"

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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JDClapper
post Jan 4 2015, 10:27 PM
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What kind of thread would this be without some DGEX love? Today's 18z...

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 5¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **

Cool, thanks.
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Snobal
post Jan 4 2015, 10:56 PM
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looks like an aps runner this time


--------------------
Annual Snowfall:
17'/18' = 14"
16'/17' = 32"
15'/16' = 24"
14'/15' = 49"
13'/14' = 55"

Historical Average : 40"
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shaulov4
post Jan 4 2015, 11:31 PM
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QUOTE(Snobal @ Jan 4 2015, 10:56 PM) *
looks like an aps runner this time


It looks like the models have no idea how to handle the energy properly
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SnowMan11
post Jan 4 2015, 11:38 PM
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QUOTE(Snobal @ Jan 4 2015, 10:56 PM) *
looks like an aps runner this time



Based on what? No model shows that.


--------------------
Anthony

2017-2018 Snowfall


12/9-10/17 : 3.6 "
12/14/17 : 1.2 "
12/15/17 : 1.5"
12/30/17 : 1.0"
1/4/18 : 12.2"
Total : 18.5 "
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Undertakerson
post Jan 5 2015, 03:25 AM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Jan 4 2015, 11:31 PM) *
It looks like the models have no idea how to handle the energy properly

It looks like some people have no idea how to read a weather model. rolleyes.gif


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Undertakerson
post Jan 5 2015, 06:08 AM
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QUOTE
Jan 11-13th 2014 Mid Atl/NE Winter Storm


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Undertakerson
post Jan 5 2015, 09:26 AM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Jan 4 2015, 11:38 PM) *
Based on what? No model shows that.

Ha- I found the model that SB must have been looking at

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html


--------------------
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Snowadelphia
post Jan 5 2015, 09:43 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 5 2015, 09:26 AM) *
Ha- I found the model that SB must have been looking at

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html


The DGEX never lies! tongue.gif In all seriousness though, I have been tracking this on the GFS for a few days. It seems to be in a good location but is missing the necessary interaction to make it a truly large storm. Right now this is just brushes the coast. GFS also claims cold air might be an issue. Possible as the "arctic" injection will have gone stale by then. Hoping we can thread this needle.


--------------------
WINTER 17/18 - 15.5"
12/9- 5"
12/13 - 1"
12/15 - 2"
12/30 - 2.5"
1/4 - 5"

WINTER 16/17 - 15"
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Undertakerson
post Jan 5 2015, 10:19 AM
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Might as well show the NAVGEM (usually the most progressive model among the globals)

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telejunkie
post Jan 5 2015, 10:33 AM
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Would be a nice little event for the coastal plain per overnight Euro, may need to adjust dates though

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Jan 5 2015, 10:33 AM
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--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9"
12/12 - 9”
12/22 - 5”
12/25 - 10"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 42”

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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avsguy01
post Jan 5 2015, 01:21 PM
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Its important that a piece of energy pushes through just before this storm arrives, to ensure enough cold air in place for coastal areas. Another interesting time frame here.
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phillyfan
post Jan 5 2015, 02:00 PM
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Steven DiMartino ‏@nynjpaweather
QUOTE
New ECMWF is certainly interesting. Another light snow threat for next Tuesday as well? In the cards.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5"

Total: 10.5"
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Snowadelphia
post Jan 5 2015, 03:43 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jan 5 2015, 02:00 PM) *
Steven DiMartino ‏@nynjpaweather


The GFS was showing that solution yesterday and is now OTS. This may be a defining storm for the Euro. It hasn't been handling these GLC storms as well as the GFS.


--------------------
WINTER 17/18 - 15.5"
12/9- 5"
12/13 - 1"
12/15 - 2"
12/30 - 2.5"
1/4 - 5"

WINTER 16/17 - 15"
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paletitsnow63
post Jan 5 2015, 04:11 PM
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12Z GGEM showing a storm on the 13th and the 15th. Also, last image is 10 day snowfall for the 12Z GGEM.




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phillyfan
post Jan 5 2015, 04:30 PM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Jan 5 2015, 04:11 PM) *
12Z GGEM showing a storm on the 13th and the 15th. Also, last image is 10 day snowfall for the 12Z GGEM.

He also mentioned the storm showing up on the 15th.

Steven DiMartino @nynjpaweather
QUOTE
I'm more interested in the coastal low of both the CMC and ECMWF at 240 hours. I will address all the long range stuff tomorrow. Lot to talk about and not enough room on twitter.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5"

Total: 10.5"
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