Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

4 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Nov 9-11, 2017 MidAtl/NE Arctic Blast, Reality: [0-3 Days Out] FORECASTS & OBS
NorEaster07
post Nov 8 2017, 06:46 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,590
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Points for the Euro seeing this depth of cold from 6-8 days ago while GFS and Canadian didnt buy it. Only about
3 days ago the GFS started coming around.

The PV talk is back.

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
623 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Upper trough associated with polar vortex over Hudson Bay this
eve amplifies as a 110+ kt upper jet on the west side dives
towards the base. This will set up a SW flow aloft across the
northeast resulting in a weak WAA pattern. However, conds appear
to be optimal for radiational cooling and many rural locations
will likely fall to or below the freezing mark. Although the
growing season has already ended across most of these areas,
have issued a freeze warning for coastal CT zones, New Haven,
Middlesex and New London, where it hasn`t ended yet.

Dry weather continues on Thu with the longwave trough and
associated sfc arctic front approaching. The weak WAA will
result in slightly higher temps in the lower to mid 50s with
increasing clouds and onshore flow keeping them in check.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
***Arctic blast Friday into Friday Night with Record Cold Possible***

A polar trough digs into the Great Lakes Thursday and then swings
into Northern New England as it closes off Friday. This upper low
lifts NE through Eastern Canada for the weekend, with a more zonal
PAC flow returning for the weekend.

At the surface, an arctic front approaches and crosses the region
late Thursday Night. A few showers possible in the waa ahead of the
front Thursday Night. High-res models indicating a snow squall line
moving through Western and Central NY, but appears it should
dissipate as it works towards Orange County. Perhaps a snow shower
or flurry for the NW hills late Thursday night.

A modifying arctic high will builds west towards the region Friday
into Friday Night. This will bring the first taste of winter temps
on Friday, with temps likely holding in the lower 30s interior to
upper 30s coast city/coast during the day (around 15-20 degrees
below seasonable). Combined with NW winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts
in the 30s...windchills will likely hold in the 20s for the
city/coast and teens across the interior. A hard freeze then likely
for Friday Night, with lows in the teens across the interior and 20s
for the city/coast. This should end the growing season for the
entire area. See the climate section below for records.



NWS Discussions

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Nov 14 2017, 02:10 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Nov 8 2017, 06:49 AM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,590
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





The last Arctic Blast thread we had was

March 13-15, 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Nov 8 2017, 06:54 AM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,590
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Max Temp forecast Friday November 10th

https://www.weather.gov/images/erh/gis/ALY_maxt_Day3.png

https://www.weather.gov/images/erh/gis/PHI_maxt_Day3.png

Attached Image

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
kpk33x
post Nov 8 2017, 08:26 AM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 1,816
Joined: 18-July 05
From: Mahomet, IL
Member No.: 1,100





Oh no the v-word! ohmy.gif

North Conway, NH with a 28/13 range forecasted for Friday plus a breeze. Nice and chilly! But it stays dry for the entire week, which they need.


--------------------
Winter 2017 - Mahomet, IL

Snowfall:
October: T
November: T
December: T (Dec. 10th)

# subzero lows to date: 0
Lowest temperature: 13F
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SnowMan11
post Nov 8 2017, 08:44 AM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 24,112
Joined: 27-February 08
From: Brooklyn,NY
Member No.: 14,017





Saturday

Euro has highs in the mid 30s for the NYC area with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

Euro has highs in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC


--------------------
Anthony

2017-2018 Snowfall

12/9-10/17 :
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Nov 8 2017, 09:32 AM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,590
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Euro 850mb anomalies for Friday evening.

Each frame is from the 00z runs since November 3rd. First it had it too slow still over Ontarios but impressively consistent thereafter.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Nov 8 2017, 09:59 AM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,481
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





QUOTE(kpk33x @ Nov 8 2017, 08:26 AM) *
Oh no the v-word! ohmy.gif

North Conway, NH with a 28/13 range forecasted for Friday plus a breeze. Nice and chilly! But it stays dry for the entire week, which they need.


beat it. You's aint from around these parts no more.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Miller A
post Nov 8 2017, 12:28 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,122
Joined: 5-December 08
From: Sussex, NJ
Member No.: 16,359





unsure.gif blink.gif
Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"
TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Nov 8 2017, 12:35 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,961
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





QUOTE(Miller A @ Nov 8 2017, 01:28 PM) *
unsure.gif blink.gif


Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Cool, thanks.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Nov 8 2017, 04:44 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,590
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Couple accu graphics

Attached Image


Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Nov 8 2017, 06:35 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,590
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





https://twitter.com/NWS/status/928399199942729728

Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Mike W IN herkim...
post Nov 8 2017, 07:59 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,282
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547





Hazardous Weather outlook

QUOTE
An arctic cold front will plow across our forecast area Thursday
evening. Rain showers that will precede the front will give way to a
burst of moderately heavy snow along and immediately behind it. This
could reduce the visibility to a few hundred feet. The heavier
precipitation could also be accompanied by thunder and lightning.

A flash freeze will then be possible in the wake of the front as
temperatures will plummet from the 40s into the 20s. While most
roadways will still be warm enough to prevent an issues...elevated
road surfaces, such as bridges and overpasses...will be particularly
susceptible to flash freezing. Motorists should be prepared for
winter driving conditions Thursday night into Friday morning...
especially southeast of the lakes where accumulating lake effect snow
will become likely


http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?...44#.WgOnhDNOmEc


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 4.6 (as of 11/23)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1
My PWS
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Nov 8 2017, 08:19 PM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,590
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Haha. Mid November and we're talking about growing season. There is some stuff barely hanging on at the coasts and I assume Long Island and NYC

QUOTE
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service New York NY
156 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

CTZ009-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>080-176>179-091900-
Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
156 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The 2017 growing season will end Friday Night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 9 2017, 02:39 AM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 14,020
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 8 2017, 10:19 PM) *
Haha. Mid November and we're talking about growing season. There is some stuff barely hanging on at the coasts and I assume Long Island and NYC


We havent really had our first hard freeze down here yet been close but think we have managed only 32-33 enough for nice frosts in the morning. Surely we will get that this weekend with temps expected even maybe in the teens overnight down here.

In fact we got our first snowfall, though only a trace, before we got our first freeze not many times that happens.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Nov 9 2017, 02:40 AM


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Nov 9 2017, 06:45 AM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,590
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864






6:45am temps. 1st Sub freezing temp of season for me

Attached Image


Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ryan Duff
post Nov 9 2017, 07:29 AM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,881
Joined: 2-February 10
From: Havre de Grace, MD
Member No.: 21,302





Attached Image


--------------------
M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)

"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

Current Elevation: 30' ASL
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Nov 9 2017, 07:36 AM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,590
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Heavy frost everywhere this morning. Needed my scraper.

My backyard..

1st Freezes:

2010: Nov 1
2011: Oct 27
2012: Oct 13
2013: Nov 4
2014: Nov 14
2015: Oct 18
2016: Nov 12
2017: Nov 9


Attached Image

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bradjl2009
post Nov 9 2017, 09:25 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,616
Joined: 27-November 08
From: Pittsburgh, PA
Member No.: 16,265





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 9 2017, 08:36 AM) *
Heavy frost everywhere this morning. Needed my scraper.

My backyard..

1st Freezes:

2010: Nov 1
2011: Oct 27
2012: Oct 13
2013: Nov 4
2014: Nov 14
2015: Oct 18
2016: Nov 12
2017: Nov 9


Attached Image

We had our first freeze overnight on Halloween, dropped to 32 just before midnight so we made it to an October freeze technically. wink.gif. Got down to 26 at KPIT today though, which is much earlier than last year as we didn't fall to this temp or lower under 11/22. NWS has us at 17 for Saturday morning, which would blow past the record low for 11/11 of 21. Last year, we didn't get below 20 until 12/14, so if we hit it, we are way ahead of last year with getting past that post.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Nov 9 2017, 09:46 PM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,590
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





With 850s at -12C you would think there would be instability at the surface especially this time of year with snow squalls or lomg lake streamers around. This may be one of those "Its too cold to snow" scenarios away from the Lakes of course. Air mass bone dry and surface staying frigid cold. I have to look back but we had a similar airmass digging in but warmer at 850s and we had snowsqualls around. May have been October 2016
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Fire/Rescue
post Nov 9 2017, 10:33 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,931
Joined: 4-January 10
From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





I can not wait to step outside come early Saturday morning for that nice breath of fresh crisp air, low 20's

Gonna be soooo refreshing smile.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

4 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 12th December 2017 - 05:22 AM