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> Jan 27-30th MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
PoconoSnow
post Jan 14 2018, 12:41 PM
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JDrenken had me reading some thoughts from uncle Larry cosgrove which caused me to look towards the end of January for our next significant threat.

Snippet from uncle larrys google drive

https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!forum/weatheramerica

So bsr has a nice storm originating from the western GOM and moving due NE into our forecasting area around the same time that uncle Larry is suggesting. So I had to dive in further....

BSR







This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 27 2018, 06:30 PM


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 14 2018, 12:42 PM
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Here we see a possible transfer to the coast





East Asia has a potent winter storm originating from the SW and riding up off the coast. It's been trending west the last few runs and looks like it may be a nice hit in Japan


Using a 6-8 day lag would put us at the 28-30 for the correlation to this coastal system

SOID

This is occurring during transitional soi to high + which if I interpret correctly would be a ridge building in the Midwest as the storm leaves the gulf region possibly initiating the transfer to the coast




I notice that the mjo is scheduled to return to the phase 7 area not exactly amplified around this period per the ecmfw



The euro seasonal forecasts are even more bullish with a return to a coherent phase 7 by Next month. Just too lagged for ''tis threat to be affected at this time.



This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 14 2018, 03:04 PM


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 14 2018, 12:55 PM
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I enjoy deciphering long range signals so some may think opening a thread so far away is just plain silly......

I however find it fascinating and try not to lean on modeling when I do this. Regardless I will keep this thread updated and maybe just maybe it will be something of significance.

I must also point out that there is a vacation rule in effect for these dates as our very own jdclapper will be in fla, which almost makes this a lock.

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 14 2018, 02:13 PM


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Undertakerson
post Jan 14 2018, 05:51 PM
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Plenty of beef. smile.gif

LR model ensembles have a few members that support. Would, I think, pump a lot of warm just prior, so only big storm would be totally winter - OR OF help from HP regions show up.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloopmref.html
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 14 2018, 06:01 PM
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Nice post Pocono, I'm looking forwards to seeing how this all unfolds. If interpreted verbatim the storm track looks remarkably similar to the most recent storm system.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Jan 14 2018, 06:02 PM


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Solstice
post Jan 14 2018, 06:05 PM
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Big swing in RRWT around this timeframe...

[Click to Animate]
Attached Image


Edit: GIF should be in the opposite order.

This post has been edited by Solstice: Jan 14 2018, 06:05 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).
Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 14 2018, 09:59 PM
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Esrl teles current prog



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PoconoSnow
post Jan 15 2018, 10:26 AM
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Pna looks to be headed + for this period according to ens



This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 15 2018, 10:27 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 15 2018, 10:28 AM
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Nao looks to be undecided at this time



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PoconoSnow
post Jan 15 2018, 10:30 AM
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Esrl for 15



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Solstice
post Jan 15 2018, 10:30 AM
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Teleconnections for today.
PNA seems to be on an positive delta near the time period.

Errr... awkward. Pretend that never happened.

This post has been edited by Solstice: Jan 15 2018, 10:32 AM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).
Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 15 2018, 10:37 AM
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Very stout winter storm retrigrading near Japan




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jdrenken
post Jan 15 2018, 12:17 PM
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Again...show GFS op tellies from wxbell and apply my rule.


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Snowadelphia
post Jan 15 2018, 01:03 PM
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Does look like a promising period for a system. It does appear uncertain whether or not cold air will be available during this time frame however.


--------------------
WINTER 17/18 - 15.5"
12/9- 5"
12/13 - 1"
12/15 - 2"
12/30 - 2.5"
1/4 - 5"

WINTER 16/17 - 15"
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 15 2018, 01:06 PM
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I don't have wx bell tellies


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plowxpress
post Jan 15 2018, 02:10 PM
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Gfs


Attached Image


Attached Image
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Solstice
post Jan 15 2018, 02:43 PM
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Models this far out...

Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).
Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.
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Storms R us
post Jan 15 2018, 06:38 PM
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QUOTE(plowxpress @ Jan 15 2018, 02:10 PM) *
Gfs


Attached Image


Attached Image


Looks like possible rain at least here in DE might have to wait for Feb to produce snow here by the coast but are normal temps could be an issue.
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avsguy01
post Jan 16 2018, 07:26 AM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Jan 15 2018, 06:38 PM) *
Looks like possible rain at least here in DE might have to wait for Feb to produce snow here by the coast but are normal temps could be an issue.

Yeah south DE along beaches have done well, but add a third year in a row of dismal winters for the rest of DE. Doesn't look promising until February, but even at this rate I'm not counting on it. Temps should most likely be a concern into February. It's gonna take a special track or perfect air mass positioning to give us any hope to end the weak winter streak.
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Snowadelphia
post Jan 16 2018, 12:01 PM
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Boy, GFS says this is the month of the GLC. I counted four on the most recent GFS run. Time for a pattern change!


--------------------
WINTER 17/18 - 15.5"
12/9- 5"
12/13 - 1"
12/15 - 2"
12/30 - 2.5"
1/4 - 5"

WINTER 16/17 - 15"
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