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> Feb 17-18, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Last minute Forecasts
Undertakerson
post Feb 9 2018, 12:45 PM
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Well, since the prior thread was originally for 2/15-16 and not these dates. AND since this is a very historical date range for winter storms in the East, I figured I'd better open a thread for it.

QUOTE
I'm nearly tempted to open a Daytona 500/ P Day thread (first time both have been on same day, since 2011) based solely on that "JD-ism" and some features I've been watching within the ensembles. With a split flow at present, it will be tough for models to get this or the Daytona500 time pd correct.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...p;#entry2300382
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OFM via a JD'ism - warm in winter, watch what follows. wink.gif wink.gif

Let's see if we can get this to turn left at all ( like a race car driver might) smile.gif

Daytona 500 on P'day weekend - 15 years anniversary. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...-blizzard/45874

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Feb 17 2018, 07:43 AM
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snowyweatherman
post Feb 9 2018, 12:53 PM
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wouldn't that High pressure off coast make this have to turn up coast instead of escaping out to sea? from hour 216

This post has been edited by snowyweatherman: Feb 9 2018, 12:53 PM


--------------------
Current Snow Depth 18

2016-17Snowfall = 85
2017-18 snowfall 74
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LUCC
post Feb 9 2018, 01:46 PM
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QUOTE(snowyweatherman @ Feb 9 2018, 12:53 PM) *
wouldn't that High pressure off coast make this have to turn up coast instead of escaping out to sea? from hour 216

Nope, that Hp is on the move to the east......
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Undertakerson
post Feb 9 2018, 02:23 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 9 2018, 01:46 PM) *
Nope, that Hp is on the move to the east......

True - as is verbatim.

However, interestingly, that is what they said 15 years ago too. Until the storm actually happened that is, and the rest - as they say - is history wink.gif
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 9 2018, 02:28 PM
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Bring it on.....need this a bit further North so it effects the Apps in far western Maryland.
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LUCC
post Feb 9 2018, 02:38 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 9 2018, 02:23 PM) *
True - as is verbatim.

However, interestingly, that is what they said 15 years ago too. Until the storm actually happened that is, and the rest - as they say - is history wink.gif

Was just going by that model run and why storm didn't get forced north.....
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stretchct
post Feb 9 2018, 02:56 PM
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Euros 12z forecast for mby. Winter of NADS continues.

CODE
SUN 06Z 18-FEB -2.2 -5.2 1028 45 19 0.00 559 537
SUN 12Z 18-FEB -2.1 -9.0 1027 66 98 0.03 559 538
SUN 18Z 18-FEB 0.4 -3.9 1024 78 70 0.10 561 542
MON 00Z 19-FEB -0.5 -0.4 1023 88 56 0.09 562 544
MON 06Z 19-FEB -0.1 0.8 1022 91 39 0.04 563 545


--------------------



First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Undertakerson
post Feb 9 2018, 03:49 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 9 2018, 02:38 PM) *
Was just going by that model run and why storm didn't get forced north.....

Understood. I was not disputing your post nor your thoughts.

Only pointing out that, the last time this all happened in unison, the storm was forecasted to go out to sea, for days. Until the last minute actually.

I'll have to find my case study on PDII to verify more, but I'm fairly certain that the N HP was forecasted to allow the storm to slip off the Carolina coast, but then got pinned when the HP anchored.

In the interest of candor, that storm came during an El Nino (less influential N stream) whereas we are coming out of La Nina (with a heretofore swiftly moving N stream) - so it may be a very tall order to get an exact repeat. Nor am I implying the two storms are made of the same "stuff".

AND there have been many years since (some might say, EVERY year since) that Mets looks for a repeat perfoermance - PDIII if you will. None have panned out despite showing up on models a week or more out. So this thread may very well suffer that same fate, in the end.

Interesting though, none the less.

EDT: - it was PDI that surprised, PDII was well handled up to 6 days in advance with the computer modeling of the day. (see link in subsequent thread to Ucellini case study of both storms)

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Feb 9 2018, 04:02 PM
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Undertakerson
post Feb 9 2018, 03:53 PM
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But, I think one might not need to stretch the imagination very far to see similarity


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MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 9 2018, 03:53 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 9 2018, 03:53 PM) *
But, I think one might not need to stretch the imagination very far to see similarity

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No thank you.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 9 2018, 03:59 PM
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And lest anyone forget PDI happened on the same dates in 1979

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/2-PresidentsD...m_Uccellini.pdf
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MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 9 2018, 04:00 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 9 2018, 03:59 PM) *
And lest anyone forget PDI happened on the same dates in 1979

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/2-PresidentsD...m_Uccellini.pdf


no thank you.
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 9 2018, 04:08 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 9 2018, 03:53 PM) *
But, I think one might not need to stretch the imagination very far to see similarity


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Great day back in 2003. I love those slow moving come in from the SW qpf bomb storms. No need for bombogensis
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Miller A
post Feb 9 2018, 04:29 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 9 2018, 04:08 PM) *
Great day back in 2003. I love those slow moving come in from the SW qpf bomb storms. No need for bombogensis


Wish this was an OBS thread as that's all I can offer. I was living outside Balt, but visiting in NENJ. NYC was 17 on Saturday and predicted for 1-3", but I heard 8-14" (odd prediction) for Balt and could be a Top 5. Told wife I HAD to go home for it and she said "well, then you gotta take the dog with you" i guess thinking that would deter me.

So me and the dog jump in the car at 8pm and head back. Got home at 12:30. Waited up for it to start snowing. It did at 3:30am. Went to sleep for 2 hours got up at 5:30. just couldnt sleep. Snowed heavy fr 24 hours

Balt 28+ inches.
NYC ended up with 19"

I believe Cantore was in the area, but don't quote me.

Yes, Great Day!

This post has been edited by Miller A: Feb 9 2018, 04:30 PM


--------------------
TOTAL 2017-18: 52.35"
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"

TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"


Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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Undertakerson
post Feb 9 2018, 04:44 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 9 2018, 04:00 PM) *
no thank you.

Understood.

But I guess yill take it if it a comes, dang nab it! mad.gif

tongue.gif
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Undertakerson
post Feb 9 2018, 04:47 PM
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Hmm - not too bad in ensemble land. I'd say, somewhat supportive. Even the solutions that have the 540 NW of the region, have uber cold 850's and some intense precip (ala Halloween a couple years back, sorta)

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clindner00
post Feb 9 2018, 05:54 PM
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Uh oh! 18z gfs. haha!
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beastieboy101
post Feb 9 2018, 05:55 PM
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18Z GFS looks pretty good for the I-95r's from Fredericksburg VA to Mass. I would love just 1 storm this winter over 6"


--------------------
Located here : 38.56314, -77.33113 or 3833'47.3"N 7719'52.1"W
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shaulov4
post Feb 9 2018, 06:05 PM
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how I am feeling
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yamvmax
post Feb 9 2018, 06:54 PM
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All of a sudden winter is not over. We all have issues.
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