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> Western PA Discussion Board, Latest Forecast & Weather Discussion for Western PA.
stlcity
post Jan 29 2008, 08:31 AM
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QUOTE(PittWeatherWatch @ Jan 29 2008, 06:02 AM) *
WOW

the latest GFS shows a huge spurt of snow during the 1st of the month (a good 7" or so)



I hope............................. dry.gif
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PittWeatherWatch
post Jan 29 2008, 05:31 PM
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now u see it
now u dont

the gfs took away the snow, and put in the ice
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Removed_Member_baltimore_big_daddy_*
post Jan 29 2008, 05:42 PM
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QUOTE(PittWeatherWatch @ Jan 29 2008, 05:31 PM) *
now u see it
now u dont

the gfs took away the snow, and put in the ice

yep, looking like an ice storm
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hoodlow77
post Jan 29 2008, 05:50 PM
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QUOTE(PittWeatherWatch @ Jan 29 2008, 05:31 PM) *
now u see it
now u dont

the gfs took away the snow, and put in the ice

unless there's a sudden shift eastward in the track, i think here in the pgh area, its gonna be a little frozen precip, and mostly rain. that seems to be our usual weather with these types of storm tracks

i hope im wrong
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Removed_Member_baltimore_big_daddy_*
post Jan 29 2008, 05:59 PM
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QUOTE(hoodlow77 @ Jan 29 2008, 05:50 PM) *
unless there's a sudden shift eastward in the track, i think here in the pgh area, its gonna be a little frozen precip, and mostly rain. that seems to be our usual weather with these types of storm tracks

i hope im wrong

well, still got a day or 2 before they nail down the track on the models
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steve_s
post Jan 29 2008, 06:29 PM
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Wish this thing would make up it's mind soon. The wife and I are traveling From Middletown to Columbus OH this weekend through mid next week. Sure would be nice to see some snow while out that way, but I sure don't need the ice if I'm running the PA turnpike all the way out. That'd be a nightmare. So I guess I'm saying that I really hope this thing tracks east and Ohio/western PA get the white stuff.
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wthr guy
post Jan 29 2008, 06:33 PM
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QUOTE(steve_s @ Jan 29 2008, 06:29 PM) *
Wish this thing would make up it's mind soon. The wife and I are traveling From Middletown to Columbus OH this weekend through mid next week. Sure would be nice to see some snow while out that way, but I sure don't need the ice if I'm running the PA turnpike all the way out. That'd be a nightmare. So I guess I'm saying that I really hope this thing tracks east and Ohio/western PA get the white stuff.


I think we could be looking at a potential ice storm as of now. A lot could change untill then though.


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mikeyj1220
post Jan 29 2008, 07:15 PM
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Wow, well I worked all night and before I left for work I checked AccuWeather Pro with no weather alarms... Came home went straight to bed woke up around 4:30 pm checked AccuWeather Pro and said this!

WeatherAlarm™!
Snow Total:3.7 in Occurring: Jan 31
Rain Total:1.57 in Occurring: Jan 29 | Jan 31 | Feb 1
Ice Total:0.3 in Occurring: Jan 31 | Feb 1
Winds Gusts:45 mph Occurring: Jan 30

Geez I hope this comes true!


--------------------
Not snow starved this winter of 09/10: Approx.. 85-90 inches

Feb 2010 beat our snow record in one month with approx. 45-50 inches
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hoodlow77
post Jan 29 2008, 08:26 PM
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QUOTE(mikeyj1220 @ Jan 29 2008, 07:15 PM) *
Wow, well I worked all night and before I left for work I checked AccuWeather Pro with no weather alarms... Came home went straight to bed woke up around 4:30 pm checked AccuWeather Pro and said this!

WeatherAlarm™!
Snow Total:3.7 in Occurring: Jan 31
Rain Total:1.57 in Occurring: Jan 29 | Jan 31 | Feb 1
Ice Total:0.3 in Occurring: Jan 31 | Feb 1
Winds Gusts:45 mph Occurring: Jan 30

Geez I hope this comes true!

its alittle too much rain and ice for me, but i guess we have to take what we can get

man back in the mid 90's we wouldn't have even talked about a storm like that, my how times have changed
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wildfire
post Jan 29 2008, 11:11 PM
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Hey folks to my west. It's true we need a good dumping of snow. Being up here on the mountain one would think we have the snow, nope. We have some but not as much as we should have. Maybe Heney is right, do we really get the bulk of our snow in Feb and March?


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wildfire
post Jan 30 2008, 12:47 AM
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12 45 am and I just looked at the radar. Look at that line of storms heading towards pitts. Noy sure if they will stay together but I sure hope so. It's Jan. right?


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[font="Comic Sans MS"][/font][color="#FF0000"][/color]

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-- Laurel highland's Weather Specialization

-- ACCU-WEATHER FORUM MODERATOR
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mismicma
post Jan 30 2008, 07:52 AM
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Hello all. It looks like we are going to have a week full of forty degree rains. This is by far the most snow-less winter I can ever remember (Im a forty minute drive west of Pitt). It's depressing, I wish we would just get some solid cold air and a couple of clippers...at least enough for a few inches to stick and stay around for awhile.
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mikeyj1220
post Jan 30 2008, 01:23 PM
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QUOTE(mismicma @ Jan 30 2008, 07:52 AM) *
Hello all. It looks like we are going to have a week full of forty degree rains. This is by far the most snow-less winter I can ever remember (Im a forty minute drive west of Pitt). It's depressing, I wish we would just get some solid cold air and a couple of clippers...at least enough for a few inches to stick and stay around for awhile.


Im a fourty minute drive east of Pittsburgh, and we are also really getting the shaft also! mad.gif Closer to the mountains isnt working out either!

When weather sights or anyone posts snow maps I was just wondering why they cut out south western Pennsylvania? Thats where I live!!! Would really like to know the reason for this!!!



Here is Henry's snow map! (also has south western with no snow! WHY?)



--------------------
Not snow starved this winter of 09/10: Approx.. 85-90 inches

Feb 2010 beat our snow record in one month with approx. 45-50 inches
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steve_s
post Jan 30 2008, 03:33 PM
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QUOTE(mikeyj1220 @ Jan 30 2008, 01:23 PM) *
Im a fourty minute drive east of Pittsburgh, and we are also really getting the shaft also! mad.gif Closer to the mountains isnt working out either!

When weather sights or anyone posts snow maps I was just wondering why they cut out south western Pennsylvania? Thats where I live!!! Would really like to know the reason for this!!!



Here is Henry's snow map! (also has south western with no snow! WHY?)



Interesting. Would that put you in the Laurel Highlands? Don't you guys generally get pounded out there. I remember trailering out some sleds to that part of the state and thinking "Wow, this is an awesome part of the state that you never hear about." This was a few years ago now, but the snow was powdery and my understanding was that there was snow cover for well over a month straight at that time. I was thinking "this is where I want to live."
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PittWeatherWatch
post Jan 30 2008, 06:02 PM
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winter storm watches issued for northern and eastern counties

still a lot of uncertainty
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mikeyj1220
post Jan 30 2008, 06:07 PM
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QUOTE(steve_s @ Jan 30 2008, 03:33 PM) *
Interesting. Would that put you in the Laurel Highlands? Don't you guys generally get pounded out there. I remember trailering out some sleds to that part of the state and thinking "Wow, this is an awesome part of the state that you never hear about." This was a few years ago now, but the snow was powdery and my understanding was that there was snow cover for well over a month straight at that time. I was thinking "this is where I want to live."


Yea we're considered laurel highlands! We usually get some great snows! I think this winter total snows were 8.2 inches and the most we got in a 24hr period was 2.3 inches... Maybe had that 2.3 inches for 2 days....


--------------------
Not snow starved this winter of 09/10: Approx.. 85-90 inches

Feb 2010 beat our snow record in one month with approx. 45-50 inches
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stlcity
post Jan 30 2008, 07:14 PM
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This winter bought us no good storms. mad.gif Let it rain!!!!!
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PittWeatherWatch
post Jan 31 2008, 06:16 AM
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...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SPREAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATING AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF ICE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW... SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
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mismicma
post Jan 31 2008, 08:07 AM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 AM EST THU JAN 31 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY AND
MILDER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON RECENT NAM AND GFS MODEL RUNS IN CONJUNCTION WITH RECENT
SATELLITE DATA, EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING TODAY. FOR TEMPERATURES, WENT WITH A
BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RECENT NAM
MODEL HAS BEEN RUNNING COLDER THAN RECENT GFS, SREF, AND ECM
MODEL RUNS. JUDGING FROM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB-700MB),
THERE IS A WARM LAYER, SO ONLY I-80 CORRIDOR HAS CHANCE OF GETTING
ANY SNOW WITH THE INITIAL PRE-SYSTEM LIFT. HOWEVER, THERE CAN BE A
6-12 HOUR OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SECONDARY LOW CENTER DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA WHICH CAN SLOW THE
INFLUX OF PRE- SYSTEM WARM AIR INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER
FACTOR IS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL BE SO COLD AND DRY
INITIALLY CAUSING SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES TO STAY SUBFREEZING
LONGER THAN USUAL. WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS
OF A HALF INCH, HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTH AND
EAST TO NEARLY THE I-70 CORRIDOR, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY HPC
THINKING, WHICH FAVORED THE COLDER NAM REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES

DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH SO
THAT RAIN WILL BE PREVALENT EXCEPT FOR MAYBE STILL THE I-80
CORRIDOR. AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

ENSUING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM FLOW REVERTING BACK TO ITS RECENT
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AS INDICATED BY BOTH GFS AND NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH RECENT GFS AND ECM MODEL RUNS, SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM
FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. HENCE EXPECT
MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING RAIN
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEN THE MODELS SHOW A LARGE UPPER LOW
NORTH OF HUDSON`S BAY CANADA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD CAUSING
A DEEP COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL US. HENCE, EXPECT A TREND
TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY AS INDICATED BY GFS MOS.

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q-vector
post Jan 31 2008, 12:27 PM
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QUOTE(mikeyj1220 @ Jan 30 2008, 01:23 PM) *
Im a fourty minute drive east of Pittsburgh, and we are also really getting the shaft also! mad.gif Closer to the mountains isnt working out either!

When weather sights or anyone posts snow maps I was just wondering why they cut out south western Pennsylvania? Thats where I live!!! Would really like to know the reason for this!!!



The reason for 'cutting out' southwest PA is because of the following:
with the expected path of the surface and upper systems (Thursday night/Friday) to be west of the Appalachian Mtns, warmer air is drawn northward up the Ohio Valley. This does two things... 1) it diminishes any pre-storm snow and 2) it leads to a period of rain falling as temps warm above freezing.
Typically, the surface low will track across Ohio from southwest to northeast, traveling just north of Pittsburgh and then into northern PA and New York. The warmer air doesn't travel any further north than the track of the surface low (and sometimes not even quite that far) and it can't work it's way up and over the mountains. Therefore the snowfall totals are reduced but there can still be moderate totals southward down the Appalachian Mtns into West Virginia.
Because the resolution of these maps, it can look like more of southwestern PA will get rain that actually does.

With this type of storm in mind, the weather could unfold like this (point of reference Pittsburgh International Airport):
- say the temperature around midnight is 34 with a dew point of 12
- the first moisture arrives during the night but because the atmosphere is so dry at the surface, it evaporates
- within an hour or so light snow is falling and it could be moderate if enough moisture is present to moisten up the atmosphere. Also, the temperature has fallen to 28 and the dew point has risen to around 25.
- within another few hours, sleet has mixed in with the snow as warmer air aloft works it's way in. Precipitation could be all sleet before long.
- By rush hour the precipitation is freezing rain, moderate at times, with a temperature around 30 to 31 degrees. It's been cold of late, so even if the temp would warm to 33 or even 34, the rain could still freeze on untreated roads/bridges
- depending on the track of the surface low and if a second low forms out near the coast of VA/NC, precipitation has turned to rain in Pittsburgh (and points immediately south and west) with temps in the 35-37 range.

I've lived in the Pittsburgh area (Cranberry) for almost 15 years and it's been rare where we've had a significant ice storm. All of the models can be showing it but if that surface low moves west of the Appalachians and west of Pittsburgh, it will turn to rain.



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