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> FAQ: Models, Z-Time, etc., What is Z-Time? How To Read Model? 06&18Z?
young
post Jan 8 2008, 09:11 AM
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I would like a list of the different models. I would like to be able to understand all the lingo on this sight. thanks for your help. LET IS SNOW
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columbiawx
post Jan 8 2008, 09:57 AM
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QUOTE(young @ Jan 8 2008, 09:11 AM) *
I would like a list of the different models and a schedule for when they are run. I would like to be able to understand all the lingo on this sight. thanks for your help. LET IS SNOW

well I dont know what you comprehend now but here is a list of terms that are probably going to be used on the board, My suggestion is that you read posts on this board, ,,start doing a lot of reading as that is the way you will learn these terms. This list is not complete by any stretch of the imagination.
nao
qbo
nino, nina
pdo
epo
500mb, all the mb levels and what they mean
jet streak
right entrance jet
left entrance jet
statospheric warming
Global Wind Oscillation
Madden Julian Oscillation
Polar vortex
Atlantic Tripole
Ensembles
850 mb temp
cold conveyor belt
dendrite growth level
steering height for storms
pna
zonal flow
cross polar flow
different patterns and what they mean for east coast weather


Once you understand thes principles then you will know a tiny bit about the weather. These are used and discussed frequently among mets on this boards when they discuss the weather. I suggest you read and look up on the web or buy a met book and start reading. It takes a long time to understand all these terms. This is just the tip of the iceberg. Have fun. Anyone else want to add?? This list is far from complete.
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mikeyj1220
post Jan 12 2008, 06:22 PM
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I am just learning on how to use these models and had some questions?

1) What models are most consistent? GFS, NAM, ETC...

2) What do the different runs mean... 00z 06z 12z... Is one better than the other... Which does everyone use

3) What sights does everyone use for model runs (which model, run, etc...)

Thanks guys! Sorry for the noob questions!!!


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Not snow starved this winter of 09/10: Approx.. 85-90 inches

Feb 2010 beat our snow record in one month with approx. 45-50 inches
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Kyle P
post Jan 13 2008, 10:38 AM
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QUOTE(mikeyj1220 @ Jan 12 2008, 06:22 PM) *
I am just learning on how to use these models and had some questions?

1) What models are most consistent? GFS, NAM, ETC...

2) What do the different runs mean... 00z 06z 12z... Is one better than the other... Which does everyone use

3) What sights does everyone use for model runs (which model, run, etc...)

Thanks guys! Sorry for the noob questions!!!

GFS is usually good because its public and long range and decent accuracy, NMM is really nice but short range
00z, 6z, ... is when they run the models z is UTC time

Most people use the latest runs wink.gif
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mikeyj1220
post Jan 18 2008, 05:09 PM
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I was just wondering why have all the models been so wrong? Is it due to the La Nina? Just curious? Which model has been more dependable this winter?

This post has been edited by mikeyj1220: Jan 19 2008, 01:47 AM


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Not snow starved this winter of 09/10: Approx.. 85-90 inches

Feb 2010 beat our snow record in one month with approx. 45-50 inches
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mikeyj1220
post Jan 18 2008, 05:50 PM
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What I dont understand is why someone would use the 00z to the 12z to the 18z?


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Not snow starved this winter of 09/10: Approx.. 85-90 inches

Feb 2010 beat our snow record in one month with approx. 45-50 inches
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WeatherMatrix
post Jan 18 2008, 07:48 PM
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It's important to remember that the 06Z and 18Z runs can be radically different because they do not have the benefit of the upper-air observations produced by weather balloons at 00Z and 12Z, so it is best to take 06Z and 18Z with a grain of salt. Comparing 12Z today to 12Z tomorrow is more fair.


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ForensicMeteoBoy
post Jan 23 2008, 10:16 AM
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The times, such as 0z, refer to the time the models START to run. The GFS takes over four hours to finish everything. The NAM about half the time. These two models are the most popular because they are freely available. Other models, such as the ECMWF (AKA the Euro), aren't as popular because even though they can sometimes be more accurate, the output is not as freely available on the web. Also, FYI, the NAM IS the WRF model, just with the domain of North America. NAM is sometimes referred to as Eta/NAM- they mean the same thing. The GFS is also sometimes referred to as AVN/GFS... they mean GFS.

The GFS is also very popular because of how long it runs out to (384 hours). Most other models stick to 84 hours or something not as long as the GFS. It is also accepted that, generally, GFS after seven days is just a good guess.

Hope that helps!


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weatherseeker83
post Jan 23 2008, 04:30 PM
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I am looking for information about GFS and NAM models because they are constantly used on this board and in Accuweather blogs. My first question is what do the acutal letters stand for and mean? Once I figure that out can someone post a picture of each model and explain the different parts of the model and what they acutally mean? Also what does the Z after the timeframe number mean such as 0z 6z 12z? Thanks for any help

-Weatherseeker83
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WeatherMatrix
post Jan 24 2008, 03:32 PM
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QUOTE(weatherseeker83 @ Jan 23 2008, 04:30 PM) *
I am looking for information about GFS and NAM models because they are constantly used on this board and in Accuweather blogs. My first question is what do the acutal letters stand for and mean? Once I figure that out can someone post a picture of each model and explain the different parts of the model and what they acutally mean? Also what does the Z after the timeframe number mean such as 0z 6z 12z? Thanks for any help

-Weatherseeker83


I'm going to combine this post with another question which has already answered the Z time question. As to what they stand for - you can see a list of those definitions on my blog.


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WeatherMatrix
post Jan 24 2008, 03:39 PM
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QUOTE(mikeyj1220 @ Jan 18 2008, 05:09 PM) *
I was just wondering why have all the models been so wrong? Is it due to the La Nina? Just curious? Which model has been more dependable this winter?


Unfortunately each model is good in certain situations, and they aren't always consistent. There are over 50 models, so figuring out which ones will be right in situations is the dilemma of the meteorologist.

Generally people prefer the new WRF-NMM (formerly NAM & ETA) for short-range (because it is the highest resolution) and GFS for long-range (because it's the only freely available model that goes out 15 days).


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mikeyj1220
post Jan 24 2008, 04:23 PM
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Thanks everyone for the useful information!!!


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Not snow starved this winter of 09/10: Approx.. 85-90 inches

Feb 2010 beat our snow record in one month with approx. 45-50 inches
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weatherseeker83
post Jan 25 2008, 09:40 AM
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Thank You!!! Very Helpful
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Rayn
post Feb 11 2008, 02:35 PM
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The site I use for the GFS and NAM models is at the Oklahoma Weather Lab site. From there you can click on "Forecast" and choose which model you would like to look at. It also has other useful links on their homepage. It's free and easy to use.

This post has been edited by Rayn: Feb 11 2008, 02:36 PM
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WeatherMatrix
post Mar 7 2008, 09:11 AM
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Just to be clear on WHAT Z-TIME IS... check out this AccuWeather Help Page.

It's hard to remember... I have a clock at my desk set to Z-time.

Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 


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WeatherMatrix
post Mar 10 2008, 07:12 PM
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A frequently asked question here is: Why shouldn't you believe the 06Z and 18Z computer model runs?

To quote from a blog entry I wrote last year...

QUOTE
It's a little-known fact that the 6Z and 18Z (overnight and afternoon) runs of the GFS and other Forecast Models are generally more inaccurate than the 00Z and 12Z (evening and morning) programs. Unfortunately, the 6Z and 18Z runs come out during times when weather weenies and meteorologists are wide awake and checking the maps (about 8 am and 8pm). So hype spreads.

Why the difference in accuracy? Weather balloons, measuring the true state of the atmosphere, are only sent up for the 00Z and 12Z runs of the models. During these intermediate periods, satellite or other estimations of the atmosphere's content are used. Although that data is more granular (satellites can see everywhere, upper-air sounding stations -- balloon stations -- are hundreds of miles apart), it tends to disagree with the previous manually-measured atmospheric conditions. This is either because the data really is more inaccurate, or we just haven't learned the right equations to handle it in the computer models.

This is important for picking up on model trending as well. It means that it's more fair to compare 00Z to the previous day's 12Z model when looking for trends -- instead of comparing 00Z against 18Z for example.


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Removed_Member_ilovesnow2007_*
post Apr 17 2008, 11:43 PM
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COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC) = ZULU TIME - CONVERSION CHART

RED numbers are your local clock times.
GREEN numbers are the UTC or ZULU time in each respective time zone.

LOCAL EDST EST CDST CST MDST MST PDST PST
MIDNIGHT 0400 0500 0500 0600 0600 0700 0700 0800
1 AM 0500 0600 0600 0700 0700 0800 0800 0900
2 AM 0600 0700 0700 0800 0800 0900 0900 1000
3 AM 0700 0800 0800 0900 0900 1000 1000 1100
4 AM 0800 0900 0900 1000 1000 1100 1100 1200
5 AM 0900 1000 1000 1100 1100 1200 1200 1300
6 AM 1000 1100 1100 1200 1200 1300 1300 1400
7 AM 1100 1200 1200 1300 1300 1400 1400 1500
8 AM 1200 1300 1300 1400 1400 1500 1500 1600
9 AM 1300 1400 1400 1500 1500 1600 1600 1700
10 AM 1400 1500 1500 1600 1600 1700 1700 1800
11 AM 1500 1600 1600 1700 1700 1800 1800 1900
NOON 1600 1700 1700 1800 1800 1900 1900 2000
1 PM 1700 1800 1800 1900 1900 2000 2000 2100
2 PM 1800 1900 1900 2000 2000 2100 2100 2200
3 PM 1900 2000 2000 2100 2100 2200 2200 2300
4 PM 2000 2100 2100 2200 2200 2300 2300 2400
5 PM 2100 2200 2200 2300 2300 2400 2400 0100
6 PM 2200 2300 2300 2400 2400 0100 0100 0200
7 PM 2300 2400 2400 0100 0100 0200 0200 0300
8 PM 2400 0100 0100 0200 0200 0300 0300 0400
9 PM 0100 0200 0200 0300 0300 0400 0400 0500
10 PM 0200 0300 0300 0400 0400 0500 0500 0600
11 PM 0300 0400 0400 0500 0500 0600 0600 0700
LOCAL EDST EST CDST CST MDST MST PDST PST

LEGEND:
EDST = EASTERN DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME
EST = EASTERN STANDARD TIME
CDST = CENTRAL DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME
CST = CENTRAL STANDARD TIME
MDST = MOUNTAIN DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME
MST = MOUNTAIN STANDARD TIME
PDST = PACIFIC DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME
PST = PACIFIC STANDARD TIME

EXAMPLE: If your local clock reads 8 PM and you are in the Eastern Daylight Savings Time (EDST) time zone, the UTC or ZULU time would be 2400 hours. (Note: 2400 hours = 0000 hours)

Too see this chart at its original page...
Time Conversion

This post has been edited by ilovesnow2007: Apr 17 2008, 11:45 PM
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Removed_Member_ilovesnow2007_*
post Apr 20 2008, 03:16 PM
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Another online weather tutorial...

MetEd Tutorial
Its a course where you watch different educational videos ranging from Convective Weather to Winter Weather...There are also quizzes available as well!

A site that I have found very helpful!
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AnthonyS
post Apr 20 2008, 03:23 PM
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QUOTE(ilovesnow2007 @ Apr 20 2008, 04:16 PM) *
Another online weather tutorial...

MetEd Tutorial
Its a course where you watch different educational videos ranging from Convective Weather to Winter Weather...There are also quizzes available as well!

A site that I have found very helpful!


Actually, my professors have assigned some of these quizzes for homework from time to time. I had to view this lesson and take the corresponding quiz a couple of weeks ago; it counted as an actual quiz grade!

Satellite Meteorology: GOES Channel Selection

Anthony




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Removed_Member_ilovesnow2007_*
post Apr 20 2008, 03:29 PM
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Better Understanding to Model Reading

A plethora of information here that will give you a better understanding of the weather provided by
METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY
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