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> RICHMOND VA SNOW WHEN?
Removed_Member_richmondva_*
post Jan 13 2008, 11:27 AM
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When do you see the next best chance for snow down here? The gfs looks to be colder and snowier for the next 2 weeks
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weatherspmd
post Jan 13 2008, 02:47 PM
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Cant say for sure... Next best chance is the 18th..

Its not this one though...


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- Rainfall Total Since 12/1/09= 3.37"
- Ice Total Since 12/1/09 =0.1"
- Snowfall Total Since 12/1/09 =22.1"
-CoCoRaHS Observer
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Removed_Member_richmondva_*
post Jan 13 2008, 02:57 PM
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we havnt had a great snow down here in like 8 years its ridicolous. We use to get at least one a year.
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Devin Dodson
post Jan 13 2008, 03:18 PM
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Yeah, we probably haven't had over 3 inches in one storm in 8 years, and the last two years have all been traces or less. When we had the cold air needed for snow, the atmosphere was always just too dry and when we had the high dew point, the cold air retreated and we got rain. Its been this pattern ever since early 2000. Later I can post pictures of a typical snow for us. It's depressing enough for you outsiders to feel our pain.


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virginiasnowman
post Jan 13 2008, 05:02 PM
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QUOTE(Devin Dodson @ Jan 13 2008, 03:18 PM) *
Yeah, we probably haven't had over 3 inches in one storm in 8 years, and the last two years have all been traces or less. When we had the cold air needed for snow, the atmosphere was always just too dry and when we had the high dew point, the cold air retreated and we got rain. Its been this pattern ever since early 1998. Later I can post pictures of a typical snow for us. It's depressing enough for you outsiders to feel our pain.



Hey guys... I'm in Richmond also. The last real snowfall was the night of January 24th 2000... 8 years ago. And the funny thing is....that storm was not hyped at all by local meteoroligists. In fact... 2 days before the storm it was not being talked about.... the day before it happened they were talking about a weak storm...1-3 inches. Finally on the 24th it came into focus and we got 11-13 inches depending where you were in Richmond. Since then we've had a handful of 3 inch storms. It sucks...anyway I'm hoping for something around the 22nd. We just can't get the right set up anymore. Someone who knows more than me... please explain what we need to see on the map to get a big snow in Richmond.... I know the storm track needs to be significantly east of us....say 50 miles or better off the coast and should develop off the coast of the Carolinas.... am I right?
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Devin Dodson
post Jan 13 2008, 07:02 PM
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In the past, I don't think how far away the storm tracks have been were the biggest factors. The two biggest factors we need to have snow are a STRONG high pressure system to the northeast and good cold air damming effect. Of course there are many more factors, but those made the deciding factors. In the 2000 storm and I think thats what ended up happening. There was some damming anticapated and it was thought that warm air would start to filter in to help the change over to rain, but so much snow fell so fast that the accumulated snow cooled the atmosphere and enforced the cold air over Virginia and beyond. Also an unanticipated strong high pressure was our friend. Really its just getting all the factors to come together.


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columbiawx
post Jan 13 2008, 07:12 PM
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QUOTE(Devin Dodson @ Jan 13 2008, 07:02 PM) *
In the past, I don't think how far away the storm tracks have been were the biggest factors. The two biggest factors we need to have snow are a STRONG high pressure system to the northeast and good cold air damming effect. Of course there are many more factors, but those made the deciding factors. In the 2000 storm and I think thats what ended up happening. There was some damming anticapated and it was thought that warm air would start to filter in to help the change over to rain, but so much snow fell so fast that the accumulated snow cooled the atmosphere and enforced the cold air over Virginia and beyond. Also an unanticipated strong high pressure was our friend. Really its just getting all the factors to come together.

Devin you partly right, two factors that play a big role are the high you mention and a 50-50 low, but a third factor is a -nao. We may get the high in canada, but don't get the other two. Without all three. most of the time the low will not ride up the coast. Hopefully the new pattern , which comes in after the storm next week changes all this. -nao is shown on the gfs and the euro in the 200 hr frame. Until that happens richmond doesnt get any snow and neither does the midatlantic states of va , md, del. That's just the way it is. The storm should form on the carolina coast and ride n-ne and then you'll see some snow, hopefully. good luck . I,m getting tired of the same pattern too.
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bucikaroo
post Jan 13 2008, 08:22 PM
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Hate to say it, but our chances dont look good for any snow for any time, for the rest of this month, cause every station, every forecast I have checked for the whole month for us says rain, temps to high and this just isnt our year for snow, you dont know how much i wish they are wrong for my kids stake but dosen seem to be happening for us this year,
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Abominable Snowm...
post Jan 13 2008, 10:38 PM
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Man, I thought I was the only person in Richmond who liked snow. Glad to hear I'm not alone!! All I ever hear around here is how great it is that we dodged the bullet again. As you posted above the last good storm was in 2000, and before that it was the blizzard of '96.
It is just amazing to me that is seems like it will nearly take an act of God for all the factors to come together so it can snow around here. Obviously, this is not the northeast, but I remember frequent snowstorms growing up as a kid. We would have at least one, maybe two decent (6" or so) storms a year. We can't even get ice anymore. Not that I want that, but it is just always warm enough for plain ole rain.
The only thing I can think about this pattern is that it has to turn around at some point, so hopefully the snowstorms will return for the area.
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kimkt
post Jan 13 2008, 11:39 PM
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Richmond snow-lover here too...
mellow.gif
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Removed_Member_richmondva_*
post Jan 13 2008, 11:52 PM
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what do you think about the next 2 weeks looks like the storm at the end of the week is trending colder and colder but you know what happens down the road it turns warmer
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skinsfan540
post Jan 13 2008, 11:59 PM
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Snow has been lacking here in the Roanoke/Lynchburg area as well.

I think we have a good shot Thursday though.
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Devin Dodson
post Jan 14 2008, 01:12 AM
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Honestly, we can look at the models all we want, but something I've learned from madman Margusity, you have to look at the pattern. That said, I think the storm we're looking for will blind side us; that's the way is happened in the past, maybe that pattern will continue. We will be able to tell whether the ingredients are there or not, but we won't ever know for sure that snow is coming till the day before it happens. Knowing that, the models are showing some signs that some of the ingredients we need are coming within the next to weeks, but we won't know how it will work out till we get closer toward the event. Trust me, you'll know when somethings about to happen when the madman puts on his Big Daddy hat.


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Snowballz
post Jan 14 2008, 01:30 AM
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richmond wont ever get a decent snow again lolglobalwarming

my forecast for 2008-2015 for richmond, va: 1.5"
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Devin Dodson
post Jan 14 2008, 01:36 AM
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laugh.gif LOL, 1.5 inches is what the trend is showing. LOL laugh.gif


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Removed_Member_richmondva_*
post Jan 14 2008, 09:02 AM
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im getting excited after this coming up storm for richmond. We are so due
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Norfolk16
post Jan 14 2008, 09:44 AM
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Hey guys - I'd give anything to get even the 1.5" you're complaining about! Here in Norfolk England it used to snow every winter, sometimes we'd even get cut off in our village and they'd have to drop food, but now we're lucky if we even SEE snow falling from the sky. The medium range forecast promised some snow for this week but guess what? Now the week is here the forecast is for 60F! LOL.
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Devin Dodson
post Jan 14 2008, 10:59 AM
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We hit 70 last week, but at the end of the week we will have trouble getting out of the 30's. Maybe some of our temps will rub on you guys. lol


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lovesnow
post Jan 14 2008, 11:16 AM
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I have lived here 10 years (going on 11), and I remember a few good snows. Even 3-6 inches would be great. Since the '00 storm, we haven't had anything I feel like. My daughter is about to turn 6, and wants to build a snowman.....she can't even do that. Last February, we took my kids to my parents (NOVA) to go sledding, because we had NOTHING!!!

I'm glad there are others here in Richmond that like the snow. Each winter I hope that we get a good snow, since I love it, but mostly for my kids. And each year, I'm dissapointed. I considering moving to the NE.....not really. I'm of the opinion, if it's not going to snow, then bring on the 70 F.

Nice to meet all of you
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lovesnow
post Jan 14 2008, 11:24 AM
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One more thing....can anyone clarify our 'location?' Are we in the south, northeast, mid-atlanatic or I-95 corridor?

Multilple national weather sites/shows seem to forget us all the time, and it drives me crazy....
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