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> Feb. 4 Northeast Light Snow Event, Forecasts Thread (Closed)
_AR_
post Feb 2 2008, 10:09 PM
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Why is there not a thread for this event on Monday for the northeast?

I noticed this on the 12Z NAM, and it is on the 00Z too:





Light snow event changing to rain? (Mostly for PA and southern NY)

I have not seen a thread on this event. Unless the timing of the storms is getting screwed around.
I know temps are supposed to be warm on moday, but hey, you never know. Soundings from the 12Z NAM showed all snow mainly above I-80.


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Removed_Member_wfreeck_*
post Feb 2 2008, 10:13 PM
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I don't believe in that NAM. It hasn't handled the parameters right today. At best, I think you guys could see some Wet-Bulbed Ice before quickly going over to Rain.
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Removed_Member_baltimore_big_daddy_*
post Feb 2 2008, 10:24 PM
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QUOTE(wfreeck @ Feb 2 2008, 10:13 PM) *
I don't believe in that NAM. It hasn't handled the parameters right today. At best, I think you guys could see some Wet-Bulbed Ice before quickly going over to Rain.

most forecasts are for rain for that event
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Removed_Member_OHweather2_*
post Feb 2 2008, 10:35 PM
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QUOTE(_AR_ @ Feb 2 2008, 10:09 PM) *
Why is there not a thread for this event on Monday for the northeast?

I noticed this on the 12Z NAM, and it is on the 00Z too:





Light snow event changing to rain? (Mostly for PA and southern NY)

I have not seen a thread on this event. Unless the timing of the storms is getting screwed around.
I know temps are supposed to be warm on moday, but hey, you never know. Soundings from the 12Z NAM showed all snow mainly above I-80.

Maybe a few hours of light snow/ice changing to rain. Here is my snow map for the whole storm system
(it's a bit confusing, but you can probably read it)
Attached Image
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Removed_Member_wfreeck_*
post Feb 2 2008, 10:51 PM
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QUOTE(OHweather2 @ Feb 2 2008, 10:35 PM) *
Maybe a few hours of light snow/ice changing to rain. Here is my snow map for the whole storm system
(it's a bit confusing, but you can probably read it)
Attached Image


That's the Wrong storm. You posted a map for Tuesday/Wednesday. We're speaking of Sunday Night/Monday's Event.

This post has been edited by wfreeck: Feb 2 2008, 10:51 PM
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Removed_Member_OHweather2_*
post Feb 2 2008, 10:56 PM
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QUOTE(wfreeck @ Feb 2 2008, 10:51 PM) *
That's the Wrong storm. You posted a map for Tuesday/Wednesday. We're speaking of Sunday Night/Monday's Event.

I kind of looked at it as one large system, cause the light "front end" precip (as I put it on my map) snow/ice Sunday night and Monday will be along a warm front out ahead of the storm that will give the NE rain Tuesday and a change to snow on Wednesday. That kind of purplish color is for the change to snow on Wednesday, and the green dots over PA and southern NE is where I think the light snow/ice will occur Sunday night/Monday. (In that general area)

This post has been edited by OHweather2: Feb 2 2008, 11:02 PM
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Removed_Member_ilovesnow2007_*
post Feb 2 2008, 10:57 PM
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Temps are going to be too warm for any snowfall.
High temp here monday 43
High temp tuesday 54
Remember the air behind this last storm (that delivered the ice /rain is WARMER then the air BEHIND it!

It does not look good for snow until MAYBE march anywhere in PA ....
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Removed_Member_wfreeck_*
post Feb 2 2008, 11:02 PM
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QUOTE(OHweather2 @ Feb 2 2008, 10:56 PM) *
I kind of looked at it as one large system, cause the light "front end" precip (as I put it on my map) snow/ice Sunday night and Monday will be along a warm front out ahead of the storm that will give the NE rain Tuesday and a change to snow on Wednesday. That kind of purplish color is for the change to snow on Wednesday, and the green dots over PA and southern NE is where I think the light snow/ice will occur Sunday night/Monday.


That's true, I see it as two distinct areas of dynamics and energy though. They're different animals who are related.
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Removed_Member_OHweather2_*
post Feb 2 2008, 11:06 PM
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QUOTE(wfreeck @ Feb 2 2008, 11:02 PM) *
That's true, I see it as two distinct areas of dynamics and energy though. They're different animals who are related.

They are different areas of energy I guess, but good analogy they will be related to the storm that will be producing severe weather and snow over the midwest and a change to snow over the NE on Monday.
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phillyfan
post Feb 2 2008, 11:23 PM
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well weather.com is forecasting snow to wintry mix on monday


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Flood Watch: 4/29-5/1
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5/22 - Marble sized hail
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Removed_Member_wfreeck_*
post Feb 2 2008, 11:25 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 2 2008, 11:23 PM) *
well weather.com is forecasting snow to wintry mix on monday


Putting "The Weather Channel" or "weather.com" and forecasting in the same sentence should be a crime.
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phillyfan
post Feb 2 2008, 11:42 PM
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QUOTE(wfreeck @ Feb 2 2008, 11:25 PM) *
Putting "The Weather Channel" or "weather.com" and forecasting in the same sentence should be a crime.


Yeah there not right most of the time


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Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/22, 5/27, 7/2, 7/3, 7/8, 7/9, 7/13, 7/14, 7/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 4/22, 5/22, 5/22, 5/27, 7/2, 7/8, 7/13
Flood Watch: 4/29-5/1
Flash Flood Watch: 5/16-17, 6/12-13, 6/13-14, 7/3-4, 7/14-16
Flash Flood Warning: 6/13, 7/2
Flood Warning: 4/30-5/1

5/22 - Marble sized hail
5/27 - 54 mph wind gust
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_AR_
post Feb 3 2008, 08:17 AM
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Now, accuweather is calling for AM freezing rain for my area, and the NWS is calling for snow before noon with a changeover to mix/rain. Not like it will be a major event, but w/e.

ilovesnow2007, why would you make a reply like that. There are many chances for snow in PA before March.


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Removed_Member_ilovesnow2007_*
post Feb 3 2008, 11:46 AM
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QUOTE(_AR_ @ Feb 3 2008, 08:17 AM) *
Now, accuweather is calling for AM freezing rain for my area, and the NWS is calling for snow before noon with a changeover to mix/rain. Not like it will be a major event, but w/e.

ilovesnow2007, why would you make a reply like that. There are many chances for snow in PA before March.

We are in a strong raging LA NINA! The MJO is not in a favorable position for any cold air. The NAO is raging positive. All the air is coming straight off the pacific ocean! You will not get snowstorms with pacific air!

I am sorry I do not see any snow for pa until maybe march and by then it will be too late.

Take heart though that I believe next winter will be snowy!
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_AR_
post Feb 3 2008, 03:52 PM
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QUOTE(ilovesnow2007 @ Feb 3 2008, 11:46 AM) *
We are in a strong raging LA NINA! The MJO is not in a favorable position for any cold air. The NAO is raging positive. All the air is coming straight off the pacific ocean! You will not get snowstorms with pacific air!

I am sorry I do not see any snow for pa until maybe march and by then it will be too late.

Take heart though that I believe next winter will be snowy!


What do you define as "snow" then? I can guarantee there will be snow before march, even if it is only an inch. NWS has lowered my forecasted high for tomorrow to 35, which it can definitely snow at if there is cold air aloft, which models say there will be for a little bit anyway. I know it won't be much snow, probably wont even accumulate before it changes to rain, but it is snow. Now, a 6" snow storm... that will be much harder to come by.


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Storm017
post Feb 3 2008, 04:02 PM
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Did anyone pick up on this.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0134.html
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Edhannafan
post Feb 3 2008, 04:04 PM
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NAM 18z seems to be a little more agressive for tomorrow, temps seem marginal, we'll have to see how this plays out and if the GFS will show this as well.

Attached Image
This is accumulated precip for 36 hours out. NE PA would recieve up to .25" which could translate into a nice 1-3" blanket.


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Removed_Member_wfreeck_*
post Feb 3 2008, 04:04 PM
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QUOTE(Storm017 @ Feb 3 2008, 04:02 PM) *


You know I did.

Grand Rapids upped their snow totals to 2-4 inches for the I-94 corridor tonight. They say a 3-6 hour period of heavy snow is possible.
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Removed_Member_OHweather2_*
post Feb 3 2008, 04:06 PM
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QUOTE(Storm017 @ Feb 3 2008, 04:02 PM) *

I saw that...there won't be enough moisture farther NE to get quite as heavy precip but areas in NE PA could see 1-2" of snow and .1-.2" of ice, so it could be a bit messy there for several hours.
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Edhannafan
post Feb 3 2008, 04:09 PM
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Should be interesting to watch.


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But the fire is still delightful.
Let it snow!
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