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> Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak Forecasts, Obs, Thread Closed - See Post-Analysis Thread
WeatherMatrix
post Feb 4 2008, 09:30 AM
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The SPC has issued a MODERATE RISK for parts of the Deep South on Tuesday. It's pretty rare for SPC to issue a Moderate Risk on Day 2, and it's unusual for one to be issued at all this time of year.

Henry seemed pretty excited when he came into work this morning; he says on his blog:

QUOTE
What is astonishing to me this morning are the high dew points already soaring north into the southern Plains and the lower Tennessee Valley. It explains why we have so many thunderstorms already this morning across Kentucky into Tennessee and parts of Iowa. Basically, you are not going to throw warmth and humidity under a winter jet stream without bad things happening the next three days, and part of that will be tornadoes.

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Wxbuff
post Feb 4 2008, 11:55 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMatrix @ Feb 4 2008, 08:30 AM) *
The SPC has issued a MODERATE RISK for parts of the Deep South on Tuesday. It's pretty rare for SPC to issue a Moderate Risk on Day 2, and it's unusual for one to be issued at all this time of year.

Henry seemed pretty excited when he came into work this morning; he says on his blog:



I have been looking at the latest models and staying in contact with my local news meteorologists that I spot for. This appears to be a similar situation of that last Tuesday. However, the tornado potential may be enhanced. I live in North West KY just 5 miles south of the Ohio River. This is starting out as a very stormy year and we are yet in severe weather season. We have had some significant tornadoes over the last couple of years and this could go down as another day of significant severe weather. Any thoughts or predictions for North West KY? Damaging Wind Threat vs. Tornado Threat?


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JansenSmith12
post Feb 4 2008, 12:03 PM
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QUOTE(Wxbuff @ Feb 4 2008, 12:55 PM) *
I have been looking at the latest models and staying in contact with my local news meteorologists that I spot for. This appears to be a similar situation of that last Tuesday. However, the tornado potential may be enhanced. I live in North West KY just 5 miles south of the Ohio River. This is starting out as a very stormy year and we are yet in severe weather season. We have had some significant tornadoes over the last couple of years and this could go down as another day of significant severe weather. Any thoughts or predictions for North West KY? Damaging Wind Threat vs. Tornado Threat?


Well i live in Owensboro, Kentucky and after looking at the latest NAM and GFS its looking like a pretty big outbreak for us, especially around the Tennessee and Kentucky border. It looks like some isolated supercells could develop during the day if enough instability exist, which is looking likely each run. But around 3-6p.m. the intense squall line will move through our area, giving us the chance for widespread damaging winds and maybe some significant tornadoes in our area. I wouldn't be surprised if were in a HIGH RISK of severe weather for Tuesday, especially in southern kentucky.


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Ben
post Feb 4 2008, 12:17 PM
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QUOTE(JansenSmith12 @ Feb 4 2008, 12:03 PM) *
Well i live in Owensboro, Kentucky and after looking at the latest NAM and GFS its looking like a pretty big outbreak for us, especially around the Tennessee and Kentucky border. It looks like some isolated supercells could develop during the day if enough instability exist, which is looking likely each run. But around 3-6p.m. the intense squall line will move through our area, giving us the chance for widespread damaging winds and maybe some significant tornadoes in our area. I wouldn't be surprised if were in a HIGH RISK of severe weather for Tuesday, especially in southern kentucky.


I live in Northern Alabama, and Ive been looking at all I can find on the coming weather event. Anyone have any idea what will happen for my area? I know from the years of looking at the sps maps that a moderate risk on day 2 is very rare. I do feel that there will be a high risk area inside the moderate risk they have now, but I think itll be on the southern end of the moderate risk area they have now. Any ideas? unsure.gif


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JansenSmith12
post Feb 4 2008, 12:23 PM
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QUOTE(Ben @ Feb 4 2008, 01:17 PM) *
I live in Northern Alabama, and Ive been looking at all I can find on the coming weather event. Anyone have any idea what will happen for my area? I know from the years of looking at the sps maps that a moderate risk on day 2 is very rare. I do feel that there will be a high risk area inside the moderate risk they have now, but I think itll be on the southern end of the moderate risk area they have now. Any ideas? unsure.gif



Well the SPC has just issued a brand new outlook for Day 2 and they have pushed the moderate risk farther north into Indiana. Like i said earlier Western Tennesse, Central Tennessee, most of Western Kentucky, Central Kentucky, and Far Southwest Indiana could be in a HIGH RISK for severe weather. So their is a very good likelyhood of seeing a HIGH RISK tommorow. For Northern Alabama you will be on the border line of Moderate to High risk.


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JansenSmith12
post Feb 4 2008, 01:35 PM
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QUOTE(JansenSmith12 @ Feb 4 2008, 01:23 PM) *
Well the SPC has just issued a brand new outlook for Day 2 and they have pushed the moderate risk farther north into Indiana. Like i said earlier Western Tennesse, Central Tennessee, most of Western Kentucky, Central Kentucky, and Far Southwest Indiana could be in a HIGH RISK for severe weather. So their is a very good likelyhood of seeing a HIGH RISK tommorow. For Northern Alabama you will be on the border line of Moderate to High risk.


12:30p.m Conditions at Owensboro, Kentucky

Temp:68
Dewpoint:66
Wind Speed:12
Wind Direction:SW
Mostly Cloudy


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WeatherMatrix
post Feb 5 2008, 08:45 AM
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WOW... a High Risk in February! I'm speechless. This is going to be a looooong day.

How many high risks are issued each year, half a dozen? And in early February?

This outbreak will be on the news tomorrow.

Check Henry's blog for detailed analysis. I'll try to post some model maps on my blog later today. SPC's Public Severe Weather Outlook says in part:

QUOTE
"AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT... [snip] ...WITH ADDED THREAT OF A FEW SIGNIFICANT EVENTS."

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WeatherMatrix
post Feb 5 2008, 08:59 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMatrix @ Feb 5 2008, 08:45 AM) *
How many high risks are issued each year, half a dozen? And in early February?


A high risk has not been issued in February for 10 years, the only other one was in 1998. Here is a list of all High Risks issued by the SPC.

More info on my blog later today regarding the historical significance of this storm, and comparisons to previous Winter Tornado Outbreaks.

And it's gonna get started quick. Already at 9 AM they are anticipating a Tornado Watch for Arkansas.


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Midwest Skywarn
post Feb 5 2008, 09:52 AM
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wow. Arkansas is in for it today.


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Ben
post Feb 5 2008, 09:58 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMatrix @ Feb 5 2008, 08:59 AM) *
A high risk has not been issued in February for 10 years, the only other one was in 1998. Here is a list of all High Risks issued by the SPC.

More info on my blog later today regarding the historical significance of this storm, and comparisons to previous Winter Tornado Outbreaks.

And it's gonna get started quick. Already at 9 AM they are anticipating a Tornado Watch for Arkansas.


Wow. Looks like Little Rock and Memphis are in for a bumpy ride in a little while. I wonder if that means my area is going to be in for it later. The high risk area isnt too far to my west. Any thoughts on how the severe weather threat is going to evolve here as the day progresses?


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Removed_Member_Dagga_*
post Feb 5 2008, 10:08 AM
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yeah, that's crazy! (global warming in full-effect) mad.gif
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post Feb 5 2008, 10:12 AM
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CrAzY


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WeatherMatrix
post Feb 5 2008, 10:53 AM
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Here's an updated Tornado Risk Map (I had posted last night's map earlier on my blog).



A 30% tornado probability doesn't sound like much, but that's about as high as it ever gets (the key doesn't even go higher!).


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post Feb 5 2008, 11:04 AM
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High risk area is now being expanded


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WeatherMatrix
post Feb 5 2008, 11:48 AM
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The High Risk has been extended to the Northeast. Overlay of both outlines on my blog.
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JansenSmith12
post Feb 5 2008, 12:18 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMatrix @ Feb 5 2008, 12:48 PM) *
The High Risk has been extended to the Northeast. Overlay of both outlines on my blog.



Well the high risk has now shifted into the Western Kentucky area. I live in Owensboro, Kentucky and the rain has ended, with partly cloudy skies right now. I believe the next outlook will shift the high risk even farther northward. What does everybody else thank.


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Mercer
post Feb 5 2008, 12:37 PM
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It seems as if the worst of it for my area is expected to move in at night - JEEZ, I hate it when
I can't see what's coming! I'll definitely be sitting up and hugging the weather radio.

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the high risk does get shifted more eastward by late afternoon.


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delta_queen
post Feb 5 2008, 02:39 PM
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As of this week I am a new resident of AR. We are temporarily renting a triple wide trailer WAY out in the country. With no storm shelter and feeble communication dependibility at best, I am highly tuned in to Ferrell's/ Accuweather's updates as long as the cell towers and satellite dishes will let me. This storm has my eyes open today! ohmy.gif

I am in the middle of that red zone - in a trailer. Yikes.

~Delta


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AnthonyS
post Feb 5 2008, 03:02 PM
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This sounding from Little Rock, Arkansas this morning is almost a perfect example of what is informally called a "Loaded Gun Sounding." The only thing missing is massive CAPE. It also provides a beautiful example of what a "cap" looks like.

Anthony



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Midwest Skywarn
post Feb 5 2008, 03:04 PM
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so do we have any PDS tornado watches yet?


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