Thunderstorms and then a snow storm? Options

[puttin]

Anyone in Southern Ontario have some good thunder and lightning last night around midnight? After all that, we had hail pounding on the windows too! I live in Newmarket and it seemed like storm after storm. Now we're in for some good snow? How much?

[theyoungweatherm...]

yep, EC upgraded the watch to a warning as expected. This should be a even closer call than the last one. With the freezing line right through Toronto. We'll see though, especially after the Feb 6 00 models come out

it looks like this storm will be seperated into three parts

First Part- 3:00 AM to 11:00 AM.
Freezing line right through Sarnia to Hamilton. Toronto will probablt receive mostly snow but anything can happen at this point. If it turns out to be mostly snow. Toronto could get 10-15cm, If its lots of mixing, it could be 5cm with lots of ice.
I had to say we should get about 10cm.

Second Part - 11:00 AM to 4:00 PM
A break from a large amount of precip. Freezing drizzle and light snow will be around. Not much to be expected during this period. 2cm

Third Part - 4:00 PM to 11 PM
This should be and will be all snow. Starts to get heavy late afternoon and slowly tampers off through the evening. We could get another 10 to 15cm at this period.

We shouldn't receive as much amount as last time(28cm recorded last time at my place). Generally 15 to 20 cm (downwards to 10 cm and upwards to 30cm). Still waiting for the next run of models to come out, this should tell us a pretty good story of what will happen( they did a very good job for the last storm).

Another note is that the snow from the last storm wont melt off completely before the snow start again. This means that most snow will stick onto the ground. The snow is still melting though and the water could freeze up and become very slippery. That with ice and freezing rain isn't a very good mix.
Schools for most of TDSB got cancelled at noon sending kids back home last Friday. Marking the first time TDSB closed their schools since 1999 when the army was called!!!! Can miracle happen twice??

[lynden-jeff]

yep, EC upgraded the watch to a warning as expected. This should be a even closer call than the last one. With the freezing line right through Toronto. We'll see though, especially after the Feb 6 00 models come out

it looks like this storm will be seperated into three parts

First Part- 3:00 AM to 11:00 AM.
Freezing line right through Sarnia to Hamilton. Toronto will probablt receive mostly snow but anything can happen at this point. If it turns out to be mostly snow. Toronto could get 10-15cm, If its lots of mixing, it could be 5cm with lots of ice.
I had to say we should get about 10cm.

Second Part - 11:00 AM to 4:00 PM
A break from a large amount of precip. Freezing drizzle and light snow will be around. Not much to be expected during this period. 2cm

Third Part - 4:00 PM to 11 PM
This should be and will be all snow. Starts to get heavy late afternoon and slowly tampers off through the evening. We could get another 10 to 15cm at this period.

We shouldn't receive as much amount as last time(28cm recorded last time at my place). Generally 15 to 20 cm (downwards to 10 cm and upwards to 30cm). Still waiting for the next run of models to come out, this should tell us a pretty good story of what will happen( they did a very good job for the last storm).

Another note is that the snow from the last storm wont melt off completely before the snow start again. This means that most snow will stick onto the ground. The snow is still melting though and the water could freeze up and become very slippery. That with ice and freezing rain isn't a very good mix.
Schools for most of TDSB got cancelled at noon sending kids back home last Friday. Marking the first time TDSB closed their schools since 1999 when the army was called!!!! Can miracle happen twice??

Lets hope something big is brewing, plows loaded up and ready to go.

Cheers
Jeff

[pcrosby]

Lots of rain last night in Pickeiring but not sure although looking a the radar last night around 10pm there appeared to be a lot of soundings that would suggest that some areas were having convective activity.

[theyoungweatherm...]

a mainly snowfall event tommorow

[theyoungweatherm...]

latest model don't look very promising