2008 Daily Tornado Reports, On Track To Be An Above Average Year! Options

[denandtina]

I've been doing a bit of research and it seems that the 2008 tornado season seems to be starting earlier and is much more active. I will attempt to post daily reports and maps from the previous day's severe weather(tornado, hail and high wind reports). Thoughts and discussion? Post your comments here!

See graph below obtained from NWS Storm Prediction Center website.

I also included a link to the site as I could not find a way to save the other chart with shows tornado statistics for 2005 through 2008 so far including number of tornados, tornado deaths per year and number of "killer" tornados.

2005-2008 Tornado Statistics

This post has been edited by denandtina: May 4 2008, 08:02 PM

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[weather_boy2010]

I've been doing a bit of research and it seems to me at least, that the 2008 tornado season seems to be starting earlier and more active. Thoughts and discussion? See graph below obtained from NWS Storm Prediction Center website.

I also included a link to the site as I could not find a way to save the other chart with shows tornado statistics for 2005 through 2008 so far including number of tornados, tornado deaths per year and number of "killer" tornados.

2005-2008 Tornado Statistics

Well, my thoughts on this year's severe weather season is that it will likely continue to be this strong due to the La Nina. I have seen and heard people asking, well, what about the upper Midwest? Are they going to get in on the action too? Yes, of course they will, but the pattern has to shift first. Right now the low pressure's cut through Iowa and into Illinois, which is favorable for severe weather south of I-80. Once this pattern beings to shift, in I would think roughly 2-3 weeks, the storms will start cutting into North Dakota and northern Minnesota, causing severe weather all the way north into Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Nebraska.

Now as far as the trend goes with this amount of severe thunderstorms, this early in the season, I think this trend will continue as well. It may level off a little bit, and get closer to the average later on in the season, but overall I think we are going to see an increased number of storms this summer with many tornado and wind events possible. I am basing all of this simply off of what has happened so far this season and how the storms have been tracking and how they have been behaving when they track through the United States.

[TJ Schulte]

when was the last time we had a real serious La Nina, 2004?

[denandtina]

I thought the same thing about La Nina weatherboy. Not saying I agree or disagree with your statement, but when I read your post I remembered seeing this statement also on the NWS Storm Prediction Center website.

"Does El Niņo cause tornadoes? No. Neither does La Niņa. Both are major changes in sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific which occur over the span of months. U.S. tornadoes happen thousands of miles away on the order of seconds and minutes. El Niņo does adjust large-scale weather patterns. But in between those and tornadoes, there are way too many variables to say conclusively what role El Niņo (or La Niņa) has in changing tornado risk; and it certainly does not directly cause tornadoes. A few studies have shown some loose associations between La Niņa years and regional trends in tornado numbers from year to year; but that still doesn't prove cause and effect. Weak associations by year may be as close as the ENSO-to-tornado connection can get -- because there are so many things on the scales of states, counties and individual thunderstorms which can affect tornado formation. For more detailed information, see The Relationship between El Niņo, La Niņa and United States Tornado Activity, a research paper by Schaefer and Tatom."

I'll include the link to this also. The statement is under the "TORNADO CLIMATOLOGY" section.

NWS Storm Prediction Center Tornado FAQ's

[denandtina]

I also read a great paper titled "Tornado trends over the past 30 years" written by Daniel McCarthy and Joseph Schaefer of NOAA/NSW/NCEP in the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK. I will attach. Good insights and charts showing tornado activity from the years 1970 through 2000.

This post has been edited by denandtina: Mar 28 2008, 10:21 AM

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[weather_boy2010]

I thought the same thing about La Nina weatherboy. Not saying I agree or disagree with your statement, but when I read your post I remembered seeing this statement also on the NWS Storm Prediction Center website.

"Does El Niņo cause tornadoes? No. Neither does La Niņa. Both are major changes in sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific which occur over the span of months. U.S. tornadoes happen thousands of miles away on the order of seconds and minutes. El Niņo does adjust large-scale weather patterns. But in between those and tornadoes, there are way too many variables to say conclusively what role El Niņo (or La Niņa) has in changing tornado risk; and it certainly does not directly cause tornadoes. A few studies have shown some loose associations between La Niņa years and regional trends in tornado numbers from year to year; but that still doesn't prove cause and effect. Weak associations by year may be as close as the ENSO-to-tornado connection can get -- because there are so many things on the scales of states, counties and individual thunderstorms which can affect tornado formation. For more detailed information, see The Relationship between El Niņo, La Niņa and United States Tornado Activity, a research paper by Schaefer and Tatom."

I'll include the link to this also. The statement is under the "TORNADO CLIMATOLOGY" section.

NWS Storm Prediction Center Tornado FAQ's

I wasn't saying that I think the La Nina affects each individual tornado that occurs, but rather the weather pattern, which seems to be causing a lot of early tornado outbreaks this year. What I am thinking is this... Take the winter weather pattern we were seeing, with these incredibly strong cold fronts that would come in and cool some places off by as much as 40 degrees. So now take those cold fronts, which just because it's spring and summer are not going to stop, and imagine those strong cold fronts coming into airmasses like we've been seeing already this spring. The airmass in front of these fronts could be in the 80's and 90's with very high dewpoints. Everything is going to warm up of course, but the same general rule will apply with the cold fronts, it will cool everything off 20-40 degrees. Now, imagine a strong cold front, with temperatures in the 50's and 60's behind it, slamming into an airmass with temperatures in the 80's and 90's. You are going to get an outbreak of severe thunderstorms with that front.

Basically what I am saying, is that this La Nina causes very strong temperature contrasts, which is what drives these big storm systems. The La Nina is weakening, but the pattern isn't going to settle down just with the snap of a finger. So the storms are going to retain their intensity this spring through early summer, which will cause some major severe thunderstorm outbreaks all the way into Canada.

Anyone follow a word I said? Lol

[denandtina]

Makes complete sense. I think we're in for a wild tornado season....

[ontariolightning]

If we're all guessing on hunches here, I will guess the year started off quickly and then drops off
I'm thinking less than a 1000

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Guys. We are normally suppose to have between 150-200 tornados at this point, but we are near 500! That is simply incredible.

[denandtina]

Guys. We are normally suppose to have between 150-200 tornados at this point, but we are near 500! That is simply incredible.

Thanks Craig. I thought so also. That's why I started this thread. Seeing the charts on the NOAA Storm Prediction Center website really opened my eyes to the early activity.

[weather_boy2010]

Thanks Craig. I thought so also. That's why I started this thread. Seeing the charts on the NOAA Storm Prediction Center website really opened my eyes to the early activity.

Yeah, I must agree, this year's tornado count is absolutely insane! The amount that we are suppose to have had by now, was overachieved in February alone! I think the year is going to be one heck of a year. La Nina is playing a part in this, and the earth is warming up, whether it be a natural cycle or global warming, I am not really taking a side to either of them. But to stay on topic so I don't get moderated ( ), I think this year's tornado count will set a record. I am not prepared to say how many, but just keep in mind, tornado season doesn't peak for another month!

[denandtina]

The actual number of tornados so far this year will be lower than the preliminary number of 494, but it's still about doubled from last year. If the year goes along with this increased activity, we COULD possibly see close to 2000 confirmed tornados. That's rediculous!

[weather_boy2010]

The actual number of tornados so far this year will be lower than the preliminary number of 494, but it's still about doubled from last year. If the year goes along with this increased activity, we COULD possibly see close to 2000 confirmed tornados. That's rediculous!

It really is ridiculous! I am amazed that we have seen that many! Some of the outbreaks that we have seen already this year remind me more of outbreaks that we see in May, not February!

[denandtina]

I've been wanting to attend training to become a trained Skywarn severe weather spotter for my county and with a crazy start to tornado season, this would be a good time to do it....

[denandtina]

Preliminary tornado reports for 3/27/08 and 3/28/08:

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[weather_boy2010]

I've been wanting to attend training to become a trained Skywarn severe weather spotter for my county and with a crazy start to tornado season, this would be a good time to do it....

Yeah, I took the training two years ago, it's a long class, and somewhat boring, but it is well worth it! The only reason it was really too boring for me, was because I knew almost everything they were telling me, but in order to have that official title "Skywarn Spotter" I had to sit through it. Good luck to you!

It looks like this week is going to add at least a hundred tornadoes to that count!

[denandtina]

Yesterdays storms:

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[denandtina]

Hail, Tornadoes Possible in PlainsUpdated: Sunday, March 30, 2008 6:46 AM

Severe thunderstorms will rumble across the Plains Sunday. Warm, moist air moving northward across Texas and Oklahoma will collide with cooler air pushing southward from the northern Plains. While contrasting air masses collide at the surface, winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere will push a storm toward the region in the afternoon. These features will combine Sunday afternoon and create a very unstable atmosphere across southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.

Thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon heat across the region. The warm, moist air over Texas and Oklahoma will fuel the storms as they strengthen through the afternoon hours. Conditions will be favorable for these storms to produce large hail, damaging wind gusts, flooding rain and tornadoes.

The threat of severe weather will remain over the region Sunday night and into Monday.

Story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist David Novak.

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[denandtina]

Recent radar.

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[denandtina]

3/30/08 Storm reports:

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