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> Winter Forecast: MidAtl & Northeast, (CLOSED - Winter Has Begun)
Removed_Member_Garrett_*
post Dec 14 2008, 07:32 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Dec 14 2008, 07:54 PM) *
Seriously i dont think there is a southeast ridge.... and even if there is one it is very weak.

Nothing like last year or years. Its annoying to hear this every single time we get a storm of "OOH the winter is over because there is too much warm air coming" or " the southeast ridge has come back to haunt us"
This storm (15th-21st see the threads to find out whats happening) is the one time i have actually seen it on the map and being mentioned this entire year. The last couple of storms were warm only really because of where they came from. The GOM.... things happen like that. In fact it actually has been the trend where the cold air sticks around longer than expected. Temps last storm were supposed to be in the 40's it only got to 36. This has happened in almost all the storms. Give winter a chance. We have actually had about 4-5 inches total so far this winter. We usually barely have that at this time of year and im pretty sure we will get a storm this month that will give us snow. Seriously just give it time and enjoy the winter. Plus on a little side note ski resorts around my area have opened up earlier than usual. They usually dont open until christmas to january. Just give it a chance relax and enjoy the winter.


I agree with that first part...Many people here are so fickle it's astonishing....They're also being ridiculously oblivious to the bigger picture here....Winter has NOT officially started, most December snow occurs in late month, and that is when it will be cold, late month. It's been that way since October.

October-Warm Start, Cold Finish
November-Very Warm Start, Very Cold Finish
December-Semi-milder start, Colder Finish(?)
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Snowlover Den
post Dec 14 2008, 08:24 PM
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QUOTE(Garrett @ Dec 14 2008, 08:32 PM) *
I agree with that first part...Many people here are so fickle it's astonishing....They're also being ridiculously oblivious to the bigger picture here....Winter has NOT officially started, most December snow occurs in late month, and that is when it will be cold, late month. It's been that way since October.

October-Warm Start, Cold Finish
November-Very Warm Start, Very Cold Finish
December-Semi-milder start, Colder Finish(?)

Winter hasnt officially started, but remember all the winter outlooks. December was suppose to be the worst month, cold & snow which has not happened. It has been cold, but nothing dramatic. January was suppose to be above average, " Thaw ", so February better be good because after that spring is close. Not looking to good even though alot of people dont want to believe it. Just keeping fingers crossed for a nice set up sometime. mellow.gif
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Removed_Member_Garrett_*
post Dec 14 2008, 08:56 PM
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QUOTE(Snowlover Den @ Dec 14 2008, 09:24 PM) *
Winter hasnt officially started, but remember all the winter outlooks. December was suppose to be the worst month, cold & snow which has not happened. It has been cold, but nothing dramatic. January was suppose to be above average, " Thaw ", so February better be good because after that spring is close. Not looking to good even though alot of people dont want to believe it. Just keeping fingers crossed for a nice set up sometime. mellow.gif


One month being off and not completely at that does in no way cancel winter. For all any of us know the January thaw may never come at all.
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sewellsnowlover
post Dec 16 2008, 08:08 AM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Dec 16 2008, 08:56 AM) *
The only model showing it.
laugh.gif
Don't lose hope.

The current weather pattern we are in will be the dominant one this winter for areas of the northern
Mid Atlantic states.Where you see it cold now is where it will be for most of the winter months.I dont think we will be any where near the over all warmth of last winter but generally speaking this area
will see average highs in the low to mid 40s. There will be a few chances for 2 to 3 inch snows but that is it.Traditional winters like we used to have are gone it has nothing to do with global warming just where the warm southern jet sets up. The last 3 winters the dominant air flow has been out of the south west,south and east. This will be the same this year with over running snows all winter long in northern Pa. and mid to upstate New York where I think this year they will have record breaking snow.I have to admit with the early cold shots in November here in Southern New Jersey I actually thought we had a shot at having a decent winter but that has waned the last three weeks.Have all of you been checking your 15 day outlooks for the past three weeks,each day when it is updated the predicted cold is always
lessened in severity and length of and pushed further out as to it's arrival.Todays national map showing where the snow is and where the rain is is a perfect snap shot of the the winter in the United States for this season.Draw a line from Reno,to northern New Mexico,to Denver,through the middle of Kansas,through the middle of Missouri,and then right across the botom of Illinois,Indiana, Ohio curving north eastward through the northern third of Pennsylvania,continue the line clipping extreme north west New Jersey then proceeding northward through most of New york state and then it will go right to the coast just north of Rhode Island and all of New England will have a snowy and cold winter.Sorry folks living in the mid Atlantic you can look at these models all winter long and there showing snow five to 10 days out the trend is always to push them back west and lift them up a hundred miles or so.When is the last time around here the mid Atlantic rain was predicted and then suddenly the forecast was changed and snow was coming instead?The answer is never!!! even back when we did have real winters in the late 70s and early 80s most predicted snow events never occured as predicted as most of those storms stayed just south or east of our area and I would watch the early radars of the day and the snow would never make it up to our area just the virga snow.Once again look at todays map I really believe this is this winters team picture this year.Any one else agree or disagree?

This post has been edited by sewellsnowlover: Dec 16 2008, 08:45 AM
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WeatherMatrix
post Dec 16 2008, 09:39 AM
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QUOTE(Snowlover Den @ Dec 14 2008, 09:24 PM) *
Winter hasnt officially started, but remember all the winter outlooks. December was suppose to be the worst month, cold & snow which has not happened.


This argument perplexes me for two reasons.

1. December's only half over.

2. The period from November 15 - Dec. 8 was extremely cold, probably the coldest in 20 years, over much of the East. What more can you want below double-digit departures from normal? (See map below).

Maybe forecasters were just off by two weeks, which in the scheme of creating a long-range forecast, isn't that bad.


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John1122
post Dec 16 2008, 11:01 AM
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It's shaping up here exactly like the past few winters have. Chilly in late November. We had snow showers on or just before my birthday (Nov 22nd) two years in a row now. Followed by warming that just grows all winter long and never really goes away. By January we are in the cool, warm up and rain, back to cool pattern. This year it looks like we are already in that pattern.

My area isn't terribly snowy, we average about 12-14 inches a year. But we've only had about 4-6 inches total in 2006-2007-2008 combined. We averaged 3 decent snow/wintery events (4+ inches of snow or signifigant icing) per year, normally in Jan-Feb from 1994-2004. We've only had 2 in the last 4 years now with no non-elevation snow greater than 3 inches in 2006, 2007, or 2008 so far.

I used to take delight at Alberta Clipper forecasts, they were a sure shot of 1-3 inches of snow. Most of them now track further north than they used to and we end up with a few snow showers or flurries with little or no accumulation outside of 3000ft or higher in altitude.

Our true Arctic air has also went away here. We used to get to zero or slightly below every winter. With -10 to -15 type temps every 3-4 winters. We've only been slightly below 0 here once in the 2000s that I remember and our coldest temp in the last 4 years is 6 degrees. It used to snow here and stay cold for several days after. Now if we do manage 1-2 inches of snow it's gone the next day.

At this point I'll have to see winter truly change to the pattern it was in for most of my life to believe it's coming back here. I don't know what's changed but something definitely has changed. Especially since 2004.

So I have no hope that we will even approach our normal snowfall total. Right now we are at 2 inches with nothing more than a slight chance of light snow showers mainly at elevation forecast for the next week. The 2 week forecast brings in cold on days 13-15 every few days, then removes if for couple days, and brings it back in the same 13-15 day frame. It seems to never quite make it.

At least you North of 40 folks are predicted to have building cold in the next two weeks. I look at this area and see red extending from the Atlantic across the entire SE in that time frame (what could that mean?). It looks like it will be another winter that I will have to spend knowing that Louisiana, Mississippi, South Texas etc outsnowed this area.


--------------------
Winter 2010-11 breakdown.


First Frost: October 4th.

First Freeze: October 4th

First accumulating snowfall: November 5th 1/2 inch, November 6th 1/2 inch.

Largest Snow: 5.5 inches December 12th-13th

Coldest Max: 19 degrees December 13th.

Coldest Low: 3.8 degrees December 14th.

Total Snowfall to date: 8.25 inches

.
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Robert Jewell
post Dec 16 2008, 11:53 AM
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IMO if your south of the mason dixon line you can give up on winter now because it isnt happening AGAIN this year. Rain this week and the possible storm over the late weekend time frame will be rain south of the mason dixon line. Lets face facts, if you live in the DC, VA,NC area you COULD say that our best winters are far behind us.
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mr freeze
post Dec 16 2008, 12:15 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMatrix @ Dec 14 2008, 06:05 PM) *
I've been hearing similar negative comments on my blogs and seeing them here in the Forums. I'm surprised to see people calling winter or December's snowfall "over" when technically it hasn't even started yet. It just doesn't make sense.

Besides, according to the map below, most of the east coast averages 0-3 inches in December (OK, 3-6 on the New England coast), which means pretty much 0 through mid-December, so why do people think they are "missing" anything?

Frankly, we're lucky to even have the cold air this time of year! I don't think that this December is that different than previous ones... although NYC & Baltimore have had significant snows during 3 or 4 of the last 5 winters, according to data from AccuWeather.com Professional, in the MONTH OF DECEMBER which I would point out is not over yet, and most of that snow was probably in the latter half of the month.

[attachment=22230:decembersnow.gif]
.

I think the main reason that people keep declaring winter over (and Iam not immune to this) is because of the long range forecasts for the rest of winter, specifically from January onward. In other words, since most east coast folks were looking so forward to a rough December and haven't really had it, atleast not in terms of snow for coastal regions, its automatically assumed that its downhill from here. You know what though........Iam starting to get the feeling that the forecasts for a warmer Jan & Feb (compared to what was forecast for Dec) may have to be tweaked somewhat and perhaps we'll get some of that snowy weather and some persistent arctic air as well. We all need a prescription of cold and snow on the east coast in the worst way. We've suffered for too long now. We deserve it. Keep your fingers crossed! I know Iam!!!!


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Weatherjunkie
post Dec 16 2008, 06:49 PM
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I think the MJO is key to how long the s/w ridge lasts. However, as today's storm shows, you can have an enhanced MJO event on the west coast and still have a weak s/e ridge. This winter isn't over. In fact, it just began.


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jasonus03
post Dec 16 2008, 07:08 PM
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Thus far, his winter has been very cold where I live. We normally do not see arctic air until January. During the past couple days our temps have not even gotten out of the 20's. November was well below normal and it has been one of the coldest December's we've had in years. It's going to warm up into the 50's on Thursday before another arctic front shoots through over the weekend knocking us back down into the 10's and 20's. I don't live in the north either, I'm about 100 miles south of St. Louis, MO.

This is shaping up to be a very cold winter. We haven't seen much winter precip, just trace amounts, but all it takes is one strong low pressure system to track over us at the right time and we'll get buried. With all this cold air constantly coming in it's just a matter of time.

I'm very optimistic because I think winter has just begun. Also, the CPC said there would be wild temperature swings this winter. I've already experienced that. It was 60 degrees Sunday and within a couple hours it plunged back down into the 20's. I'm not writing this winter off, I believe it will be the coldest winter the nations mid section and has seen in several years.
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Removed_Member_AstroMet_*
post Dec 16 2008, 09:16 PM
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QUOTE(AstroMet @ Aug 17 2008, 02:23 PM) *
**THEO'S SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR AUTUMN 2008 & WINTER 2008/2009**
Expect Fall and Winter 2009 To Arrive Early This Year

Welcome back to all those returning from summer vacation!
UPDATED: SEPTEMBER 2, 2008

{NOTES: This seasonal outlook precedes my WINTER/SPRING 2009 Long-Range Climate & Weather forecast to be published between August 30 through September 7th. This outlook is written to give early-bird climate hawks time to adjust & prepare for what I forecast will be an early fall and winter seasons just ahead the latter months of 2008 going into the winter and spring months of 2009...}

THEO'S ASTOMETEOROLOGICAL
SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR FALL 2008 & WINTER 2008/2009


According to my astrometeorological calculations on climate conditions, the fall season will arrive earlier than normal and will lead to an earlier than expected winter.

This winter will last from mid-November 2008 into May 2008 due to the cooler and wetter Spring of 2009, which will make this coming winter season seem longer than normal.

Winter, in my astrometeorological calculations, will begin on Saturday, November 13, 2008 and will extend to April 25, 2009. The biggest story of the winter will be the Air temperatures, making this one of the coldest winters for some time in North America.

Spring 2009 will be late, making the months of March, April and May 2009, wet and cooler than is normal for spring. From what I can determine from my calculations, Spring 2009 is muddled, cold, cloudy, with the climate still in the throes of winter, which does not want to seem to end until late April 2009. Warmer weather and clearer sping-like skies will not become more frequent until early June 2009.

I am forecasting a long winter for this reason, as I see spring 2009 arriving latter than usual, with a delay in climate and spring weather until early June for many regions of North America.

As August 2008 winds down, some of you may have noticed that the month of August hasn't been as hot and humid for much of the country, expect those on the west coast and the Pacific Northwest, which have been experiencing warmer-than-usual hot and steamy weather.

Those residing in the Midwest, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and New England should have been aware of the cooler than normal August temperatures, especially those residing along the Canadian border, such as those in upstate New York, and those living near mountainous and valley regions.

Fall, for a majority of the country (excepting parts of the far west) will first be clear and chily, then wetter, and cold into late October, with winter's arrival by November 13th, about 18 days ahead of meteorological winter (Dec. 1) and a full five (5) weeks ahead of the Winter Solstice (Dec. 22) in the Northern Hemisphere.

The Pacific Northwest will be much colder than normal this winter, with above average snowfall, along with ice events that will make roads very dangerous. Expect a colder than normal fall season to precede a earlier than normal winter. Due to heavier than normal snowfalls in the Pacific Northwest this winter, many regions will experience common flooding in the northwest in the months of March and April. The slightly drier conditions will end in the northwest with the heavier than normal snowfalls during snowmelt season in spring 2009.

My long-range weather forecast will include my assessment of winter's early arrival by mid-November, with some snows in October along the northern regions of North America, and with colder-than-normal temperatures for two-thirds of the country during the months of Sep. through November. This means a early fall season.

Those in mountain and valley regions should already see signs of the earlier onset of fall before mid-September's autumn equinox. Keen city dwellers in the East, and New England who are attuned to the signs in nature will see trees shedding leaves. The color of the leaves assist in shedding (no pun intended) the coming season of fall, and winter. More bright yellow colors of fallen leaves in August indicate a wet autumn with cooler-than-normal temperatures.

AUTUMN 2008
We are seeing lowered daytime temperatures in the East, Southeast, and Midwest range between 82-70 degrees with night-time temperatures in the 50s & 60s. Areas close to mountains and valleys have seen night temps in the mid-40s in late July and early August.

Areas as far north as Buffalo, N.Y. for example have had a wet summer with cooler-than-normal temperatures, and it has been a wetter than normal summer for the midwestern and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. Farmers have been reporting wet hay fields because there has not been enough hot weather to dry the hay fields out.

This fall season will be clear, crisp and cooler-than-normal for many regions of North America. Fall conditions are arriving earlier than usual, and by second week of September it will be obvious to most that autumn is already here.

By the third week, everyone will be commenting on the cooler than normal temperatures and the spread of dry leaves everywhere. By that time, the fall equinox (Sept. 22) when the Sun enters tropical Libra, autumn will have already been here for the northern hemisphere.

The rainy season kicks off early too (in mid-September) and continues in early-to-mid October for some regions, and in early November in other regions. A very wet fall season after mid-September is ahead generally.

Early snows at higher elevations arrive the week of Sept. 22-29, with high wind conditions for New England, the Great Lakes, and all regions along the 49th Parallel bordering Canada.
AUTUMN 2008's General Climate Conditions

- Colder than normal Fall temperatures (mid-Aug. thru Sept.)
- Clear, sunny skies, dry, brisk, Cool Temps (first half of Sept.)
- Rainy Season starts earlier than normal (mid-Sept. thru Nov. 17)
- Colder night-time lows w/early frosts (Sept. 24 - Oct.19)
- First 19 days of October, very wet w/ cold, heavy rains
- Gusty Winds w/ driving rains from Oct. 19 thru Nov. 15
- Very cold, dry gusty winter winds Nov. 15 thru Dec. 12

PREVIEW OF WINTER'S EARLY ARRIVAL

Winter 2008-09, according to my assessment will be colder, and wetter than normal with increased snow and ice events for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Winter is earlier than usual, with much colder temperatures than is normal for November and December. I've been forecasting a earlier than normal winter for this year in my comments since last year.

Frost season will begin from Sept. 7 through to October 31, 2008. Farmers and gardening enthusiasts should prepare earlier than normal for this frost season. After Sept. 15, expect to see signs of an earlier-than-normal rainy fall season for the Midwest, East, and Southeastern states. Colder temperatures in New England and the Great Lakes, with snow events at high elevations the week of Sept. 22-29.

This autumn season will also see the early signs of what will be be common this early winter: high winds & blizzards, and freezing rains. Most residents east of the Rockies in the U.S., should beware of very slick roads, and freezing rains this winter ~ mostly ice events ~ and should therefore be prepared for power outages by purchasing generators to run power in your homes and businesses.

Gusting winds throughout regions of the country pick up from October 19, 2008 and continue through December 27. There will be about ten (10) weeks of varying levels of gusting winds from mid-October to late December, making the colder-than-normal temperatures feel even colder throughout this period.

Arctic temperatures for two-thirds of the country (excepting the far west and Pacific Northwest) will occur between November 26 through to January 4, 2009. These arctic temperatures begin to recede slowly in January until the effects of the Pacific jet warms things up in late January.

I do not expect a strong Pacific jet until after January 25, 2009. This means the month of February 2009 will see temperatures rise after the pullback to the north of arctic air. However, February 6-9 brings another eastern snowstorm to the Mid-Atlantic states, then afterwards, a continuing warming up of the atmosphere the rest of February, but with still more threats of ice events because of the increase moisture in the atmosphere threatens the Southern Plains states, and Southeastern U.S. in February

Expect a stonger-than-normal northern jet stream this winter bringing about northwestern winds anf Alberta clipper systems into the Great Lakes, and upstate New York and New England with these clipper storms riding this wave also into the states of Ohio and Pennsylvania and into the Mid-Atlantic region.

December 5-12, 2008 shows snow and ice events for Southeastern & Central U.S., with colder than normal temperatures, heavy rains from the Gulf of Mexico combined with cold arctic air from Canada combining to prpduce snow and ice. Strong winds will make the storms damaging. The Central & Southern Rockies, and southern Plains into northern Texas will be affected, as well as states as Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia.

That early December 2008 winter event, for example, continues into the Mid-Atlantic region the week of Dec. 12-19, and will arrive by Friday, December 12, making for a messy weekend on the east coast and northeastern metropolitan areas with heavy snows in Philadelphia, New York, Washington D.C., and parts of the Southeast. Blizzard warnings due to the high winds will increase snow accumulations in the cities and suburbs. Roads will be treacherous the second and third weeks of December.

ASTROMET OUTLOOK
I expect about 2-1/2 snow storms a month from early December 2008 through to early March 2009 for the Rocky Mountains, the Southern Rockies, Cental & Southern Plain states, as well as the Southeastern, Central and Northeastern United States. This will make Winter 2009 memorable after several years of a relatively warm winters; especially in the Midwestern, Southern and Eastern U.S.

GENERAL CLIMATE CONDITIONS FOR WINTER 2008/2009

- Early onset of winter by Mid-November 2008
- Colder-than-normal temperatures
- Heavier than normal snowfalls - Pacific Northwest, Rockies, Central Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, Central Plains

- Gusty Winds, blowing snow, blizzard conditions - Plains states, Rocky Mountains, into Nebraska & Central Midwest
- Strong Northwestern Winds (affecting Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeastern states)
- Arctic Air (late Dec. '08/Jan. '09) Pacific Northwest, Intermountain West, Rockies, Great Lakes, Central Midwest & Northeast)
- Numerous Alberta Clippers from the Northwest
- Increased southern precipitation Mixing with Arctic Air
- Freezing Rains & Ice storms - Pacific Northwest, Central Midwest, Mid-Atlantic


This winter will be colder-than-normal due to the lack of sunspot activity affecting the Earth's equator. Colder than normal winter temperatures (arctic air) are on tap this winter ahead with increased precipitation of freezing rains, snows and gusty winds mixing with the very cold air.

My outlook for the nation from the Continential Divide towards the entire two-thirds of the country is to prepare for a chilly early autumn and very cold winter season. Think and act about 4-5 weeks ahead of what one would normally do to prepare for fall and especially winter this year.

SPRING 2009 OUTLOOK
Next Spring is "muddled." That's the word I use because from all my calculations, spring is very slow to get up, and when it does, it is sluggish at best and takes it's time to get started.

February 2009's Pacific jet will warm the atmosphere over much the U.S., and during the latter half of the month of February, it will "appear" as if spring is one its way. However, it is not.

Spring-like weather will be seen in the Southern U.S. in early February. Do not be surprised to hear thunderstorms and see lightning in mid-February in the southern region of the country. There are strong potentials for tornados in February and the first 15 days of March 2009 throughout the southeastern U.S.

By March 6, 2009, a six-week Venus retrograde (Mar. 6 to April 17) will delay the onset of proper sping climate conditions relative to Earth's position to the Sun-Venus configuration. Prior Venus retrogrades before spring equinoxes in legacy data have shown very wet winter conditions returning over the course of about six-weeks ~ the exact length of most Venus retrogrades and delays in fuller spring climate conditions.

The climate by the next spring equinox (March 20, 2009) will see increased precipitation from the South to Central Midwestern states, to the Northeastern regions, including New England, with heavier-than-normal rains, particularly in April 2009, with the threat of a major Nor'easter along the Eastern U.S. from April 17-25.

The months of March and April 2009 show colder-than-normal weather conditions. A damp, unsettled, and stormy climate throughout these two months. April 2009 is very windy, wet and cold, with winter-like days and colder-than-normal temperatures showing that spring will be delayed yet another month. According to my calculations, spring really does not fully bloom until the second week of June 2009.

Warmer temperatures from the continued Pacific jet will increase, as the northern jet falls further south, bringing with it heavy rains and increased gusty winds during all of April into the first week of May 2009.

SPRING 2009 CLIMATE

- Colder than normal
- Wetter than normal w/ heavy precipitation & freezing rains
- Windy (especially April 2009)
- Dense Fogs (April/early May)
- Winter-like storms in March & April


Related Story: Alaska's Glaciers Return:

By Craig Medred | Anchorage Daily News
Two Hundred Years of Glacial Shrinkage in Alaska, Then came the Winter & Summer of 2007-2008.

Unusually large amounts of winter snow were followed by unusually chill temperatures in June, July and August.

"In mid-June, I was surprised to see snow still at sea level in Prince William Sound," said U.S. Geological Survey glaciologist Bruce Molnia. "On the Juneau Icefield, there was still 20 feet of new snow on the surface of the Taku Glacier in late July. At Bering Glacier, a landslide I am studying, located at about 1,500 feet elevation, did not become snow free until early August.

"In general, the weather this summer was the worst I have seen in at least 20 years."

Never before in the history of a research project dating back to 1946 had the Juneau Icefield witnessed the kind of snow buildup that came this year. It was similar on a lot of other glaciers too.

"It's been a long time on most glaciers where they've actually had positive mass balance," Molnia said.

See ~ http://www.adn.com/news/environment/story/555283.html


No Respite As Wintry Storms Spread Over Nation
AP--December 17, 2008--OKLAHOMA CITY Students went home for a snow day, stranded travelers waited at airports and drivers slid across icy roads in the second day of a bitter cold wave that blanketed much of the nation Tuesday.

There was little relief in sight. Temperatures were forecast to drop below zero Wednesday in at least 12 states in the Midwest and West. A band of snow and sleet fell Tuesday from Minnesota to New Hampshire.

Dozens of schools closed in Kentucky, Arkansas and Tennessee, and some school districts in Illinois sent students home early Tuesday. Up to a half-foot of snow had fallen in parts of Kentucky.

"It's pretty treacherous," said Jodi Shacklette, a Kentucky State Police dispatcher in Elizabethtown. "We're working wrecks just left and right."

More than 300 flights were canceled at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport and about 50 were canceled at Midway Airport, said Department of Aviation spokesman Gregg Cunningham.

Police in northern Texas had to close some highway overpasses because they were so slippery with ice. In parts of Oklahoma, snow froze overnight and left a glaze of ice on roads, said John Pike, a weather service meteorologist.

Ski resorts near Flagstaff, Ariz., reported 8 to 12 inches of snow Tuesday and strong rain showers covered residents in Phoenix. Flash flood watches were issued for central Arizona through Wednesday night.

In Washington state, as much as 8 inches of snow was expected north of Seattle to the Canadian border and up to 2 feet of new snow was forecast in the Cascades.

See ~ http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081217/ap_on_re_us/cold_snap

This post has been edited by AstroMet: Dec 16 2008, 09:17 PM
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bwstump
post Dec 17 2008, 11:37 AM
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Well - even though winter hasn't started yet - I am going to go ahead an say it - I don't think winter is coming this year!! At least not here in SW Virginia. It always is too warm for any snow...and when there is precipitation in the forecast, it's always warm and then gets cold behind the storm. I'm not sure what's going on - but I say that our good ole' winters in SW Virginia are DONE!! Anybody have any comments?
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John1122
post Dec 17 2008, 11:56 AM
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Meterological winter actually has already begun and we are now 17 days into it. It runs from Dec 1st to March 1st. Many people get that mixed up with solar winter which starts on Dec 21st.

Not pointing out you saying it hasn't started per say, but I see it from a lot of different posters on a lot of different threads.


--------------------
Winter 2010-11 breakdown.


First Frost: October 4th.

First Freeze: October 4th

First accumulating snowfall: November 5th 1/2 inch, November 6th 1/2 inch.

Largest Snow: 5.5 inches December 12th-13th

Coldest Max: 19 degrees December 13th.

Coldest Low: 3.8 degrees December 14th.

Total Snowfall to date: 8.25 inches

.
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bwstump
post Dec 17 2008, 12:50 PM
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QUOTE(John1122 @ Dec 17 2008, 12:56 PM) *
Meterological winter actually has already begun and we are now 17 days into it. It runs from Dec 1st to March 1st. Many people get that mixed up with solar winter which starts on Dec 21st.

Not pointing out you saying it hasn't started per say, but I see it from a lot of different posters on a lot of different threads.



Not that it really matters at this point anyway - cause winter is over - LOL!
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Weatherjunkie
post Dec 17 2008, 02:13 PM
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One time old lady Karma will pay a visit from D.C-Philly, leaving out the rest of the Mid-Atl and NE.

One day...


--------------------
The reason I talk to myself is that I am the only one whose answers I accept~ George Carlin

To be or not to be is not a question of compromise. Either you be or you don't be ~ Golda Meir

Sometimes good guys gotta do bad things to make the bad guys pay ~ Harvey Specter

Why is the rum gone? ~ Captain Jack Sparrow
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marked8
post Dec 17 2008, 02:20 PM
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It was warm enough here today that there were insects all over the place ranging from the common housefly to box elder bugs. They should not be out a week before Christmas.


--------------------
2009-2010 snowfall total: 76 inches
2010-2011:
14.0 inches total
2011-2012:
Dusting
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John1122
post Dec 17 2008, 03:11 PM
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NWS closes out 2008 with the SE Ridge growing stronger through the period.

Unless and until the big trough over the West gets replaced there will be no lasting cold air here.

It used to be that when the upper midwest went into the deep freeze, we would also go into it soon after. Now with the excessive strength of the SE ridge that doesn't happen any more.

This snowless pattern is starting to effect climate normals. I noticed the Knoxville's official snowfall average has now dipped below 10 inches in the 30 year mean. I seem to recall that it was around 12 inches in the 30 year mean just about a decade ago. As these snow free winters continue it will get lower and lower in the 30 year mean.

I wish I could find a way that tracked these periods. I'd like to figure up the 30 year mean snowfall rates for this area over the decades. I'd imagine the 30 year period from 1960-1990 would have been impressive. The 1960s and 1970s were very snowy. Knoxville received 60 inches of snow in the winter of 1959-1960. I think they had several 30 inch winters in the 70s. I'd be shocked if Knoxville's total snowfall exceeded 30 inches from 1998-2008.



--------------------
Winter 2010-11 breakdown.


First Frost: October 4th.

First Freeze: October 4th

First accumulating snowfall: November 5th 1/2 inch, November 6th 1/2 inch.

Largest Snow: 5.5 inches December 12th-13th

Coldest Max: 19 degrees December 13th.

Coldest Low: 3.8 degrees December 14th.

Total Snowfall to date: 8.25 inches

.
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bwstump
post Dec 17 2008, 07:39 PM
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QUOTE(John1122 @ Dec 17 2008, 04:11 PM) *
NWS closes out 2008 with the SE Ridge growing stronger through the period.



It just cracks me up - everybody said that there was not going to be any sign of the se ridge this winter.....guess they were all wrong!
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CrazyDon
post Dec 18 2008, 02:26 AM
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QUOTE(AstroMet @ Dec 16 2008, 07:16 PM) *
No Respite As Wintry Storms Spread Over Nation
AP--December 17, 2008--OKLAHOMA CITY Students went home for a snow day, stranded travelers waited at airports and drivers slid across icy roads in the second day of a bitter cold wave that blanketed much of the nation Tuesday.

There was little relief in sight. Temperatures were forecast to drop below zero Wednesday in at least 12 states in the Midwest and West. A band of snow and sleet fell Tuesday from Minnesota to New Hampshire.

Dozens of schools closed in Kentucky, Arkansas and Tennessee, and some school districts in Illinois sent students home early Tuesday. Up to a half-foot of snow had fallen in parts of Kentucky.

"It's pretty treacherous," said Jodi Shacklette, a Kentucky State Police dispatcher in Elizabethtown. "We're working wrecks just left and right."

More than 300 flights were canceled at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport and about 50 were canceled at Midway Airport, said Department of Aviation spokesman Gregg Cunningham.

Police in northern Texas had to close some highway overpasses because they were so slippery with ice. In parts of Oklahoma, snow froze overnight and left a glaze of ice on roads, said John Pike, a weather service meteorologist.

Ski resorts near Flagstaff, Ariz., reported 8 to 12 inches of snow Tuesday and strong rain showers covered residents in Phoenix. Flash flood watches were issued for central Arizona through Wednesday night.

In Washington state, as much as 8 inches of snow was expected north of Seattle to the Canadian border and up to 2 feet of new snow was forecast in the Cascades.

See ~ http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081217/ap_on_re_us/cold_snap


QFT. To add to AstroMet's post and prediction, expected storm total by tomorrow for the Spokane/CDA area is 15-20" of snow. I think this could be a bigger storm than the Jan '08 storm that we had.

Although winter got off to a bit of a slow start, the past five days have been frigid in the Pacific Northwest. Today was the warmest day we've seen since last Thursday with a high temperature in the upper teens.

Sorry to have interrupted all the east coast discussion...
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Snowlover Den
post Dec 18 2008, 07:42 AM
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QUOTE(CrazyDon @ Dec 18 2008, 03:26 AM) *
QFT. To add to AstroMet's post and prediction, expected storm total by tomorrow for the Spokane/CDA area is 15-20" of snow. I think this could be a bigger storm than the Jan '08 storm that we had.

Although winter got off to a bit of a slow start, the past five days have been frigid in the Pacific Northwest. Today was the warmest day we've seen since last Thursday with a high temperature in the upper teens.

Sorry to have interrupted all the east coast discussion...

I could actually see an average snow season if i keep getting about 20 - 30 one inch slush storms, lol.
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