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> 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts, POST ALL SEASONAL FORECASTS HERE
Kyle P
post Mar 14 2008, 05:38 PM
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Post your forecasts here.
Mine is coming very soon, heres a sneak peak outlook map:
*dotted areas are formation zones

This post has been edited by Kyle P: Mar 14 2008, 05:39 PM
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Removed_Member_nicnic_*
post Mar 14 2008, 05:40 PM
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QUOTE(Kyle P @ Mar 14 2008, 06:38 PM) *
Post your forecasts here.
Mine is coming very soon, heres a sneak peak outlook map:

looks like what happened in 2005.
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Removed_Member_baltimore_big_daddy_*
post Mar 14 2008, 05:53 PM
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QUOTE(nicnic @ Mar 14 2008, 06:40 PM) *
looks like what happened in 2005.
well, it depends on whether la nina is weakening or not,
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southmdwatcher
post Mar 14 2008, 06:02 PM
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The mid-atlantic and southeast are way overdue for a major hurricane strike. Whether it is an active season with overall numbers or just a few that manage to strike land.
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snowhyper
post Mar 14 2008, 06:15 PM
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QUOTE(baltimore_big_daddy @ Mar 14 2008, 06:53 PM) *
well, it depends on whether la nina is weakening or not,


Well, accourding to the El Nino Dianostics Discussion, L Nina should start to weaken in a slow but steady clip, just in time for hurricane season. Me personally HOPE that it will stay La Nina until late fall. Forcasting hurricanes is just as interesting as forcasting snowstorms.


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I-95blizzard
post Mar 14 2008, 06:20 PM
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I think more storms will curve out to sea at the beginning of the season, then head for the U.S. near the end. I'm thinking 16-18 named storms this year, because of the weakening La Nina, and the high levels of TCHP in the GOM and Carribean.


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Removed_Member_OHweather2_*
post Mar 14 2008, 07:01 PM
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Here is my forecast map...I think La Nina and the SE ridge will remain strong, through the beginning of the hurricane season, and it could well remain through the whole hurricane...I have slight concern that the SE ridge will weaken and some storng hurricanes could take aim at the SE coast...I think there could be some very violent hurricanes, as often times high pressure means lower wind shear, as long as the storms do not go east around the high and stay south towards the Carribean...

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Removed_Member_ice526_*
post Mar 15 2008, 01:48 AM
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QUOTE(Kyle P @ Mar 14 2008, 05:38 PM) *
Post your forecasts here.
Mine is coming very soon, heres a sneak peak outlook map:
*dotted areas are formation zones



Why is there an arrow pointing directly at NYC???


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Kyle P
post Mar 15 2008, 09:10 PM
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2008 Hurricane Outlook:
HIGH DEFINITION GRAPHIC
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Removed_Member_baltimore_big_daddy_*
post Mar 16 2008, 11:14 AM
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QUOTE(Kyle P @ Mar 15 2008, 10:10 PM) *
2008 Hurricane Outlook:
HIGH DEFINITION GRAPHIC
im hoping for a busy season on east coast.
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Removed_Member_baltimore_big_daddy_*
post Mar 16 2008, 11:15 AM
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QUOTE(OHweather2 @ Mar 14 2008, 08:01 PM) *
Here is my forecast map...I think La Nina and the SE ridge will remain strong, through the beginning of the hurricane season, and it could well remain through the whole hurricane...I have slight concern that the SE ridge will weaken and some storng hurricanes could take aim at the SE coast...I think there could be some very violent hurricanes, as often times high pressure means lower wind shear, as long as the storms do not go east around the high and stay south towards the Carribean...

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from what i hear, the lanina is starting to break down, so if it weakens enough, then we will get more tropical systems on east coast
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Removed_Member_MDsnowbunny_*
post Mar 21 2008, 03:24 PM
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Hello my fellow Hurricane forecasters/lovers.

I am from MD and my interest in hurricane came about when I first learned to surf with my father, uncle and sister. About 30 years ago. I follow tropical weather systems and low pressure systems to determine when I could possibly catch some waves - b/c east coast surf in the Mid-Atlantic is very touch and go.

I start every year out with the looking at the Colorado State Forecast that comes out in December.

Here is what I have learned and can share with all of you:

There were five hurricane seasons since 1949 with characteristics most similar to what we observe in October-November 2007. The best analog years that we could find for the 2008 hurricane season are 1953, 1956, 1989, 1999, and 2000. We anticipate that 2008 seasonal hurricane activity will have activity in line with what was experienced in the average of these five years. We believe that 2008 will have somewhat above-average activity in the Atlantic basin.

Best analog years for 2008 with the associated hurricane activity listed for each year.

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Six out of the eight seasons following La Niņa years were active Atlantic hurricane seasons, and seven out of the eight seasons witnessed either neutral conditions or a continuation of La Niņa conditions.

Warm sea surface temperatures are likely to continue being present in the tropical and North Atlantic during 2008, due to the fact that we are in a positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (e.g., a strong phase of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation).

Estimated probability (expressed in percent) of one or more U.S. landfalling tropical storms (TS), category 1-2 hurricanes (HUR), category 3-4-5 hurricanes, total hurricanes and named storms along the entire U.S. coastline, along the Gulf Coast (region 1-4), and along the Florida Peninsula and the East Coast (Regions 5-11) for 2008. The long-term mean annual probability of one or more landfalling systems during the last 100 years is given in parentheses.

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They will be issuing seasonal updates of our 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts on Tuesday April 8, Tuesday 3 June, Tuesday 5 August, Tuesday 2 September and Thursday 2 October 2008. The 5 August, 2 September and 2 October forecasts will include separate forecasts of August-only, September-only and October-November Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. A verification and discussion of all 2008 forecasts will be issued in late November 2008. Our first seasonal hurricane forecast for the 2009 hurricane season will be issued in early December 2008. All of these forecasts will be available on the web at: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts.
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denandtina
post Mar 22 2008, 04:47 AM
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I'll be thinking on the low end for this hurricane season. My non scientific estimates are:

11 named storms
5 hurricanes cat 3 or higher
4 tropical systems make landfall in cont. U.S.



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Weatherjunkie
post Mar 22 2008, 12:40 PM
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Latest diagnostics discussion on the Southern Oscillation says that a weakening phase of the strong La-Nina will continue through the spring time. By fall of 2008, they expect La-Nina to be weak.

That being said, I like what OHweather put out on his map. Areas of high pressure off the southeast coast will protect that area from tropical systems for the early part of the hurricane season(June-early/mid August).

By September, there should be an increase in probabilty of tropical systems hitting the east coast due to the weak La-Nina phase. Temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean should be above average for the most part, if not all of hurricane season.

Looking back at past La-Nina hurricane seasons, there were above normal tropical activites. With that being said, here is my 2008 hurricane season(but subject to change) outlook:

Total Named storms:13-15

Tropical Storms: 6-8

Hurricanes: 4-7

Major hurricanes: 2-4

Tropical systems making U.S landfall: 3-6

Major hurricanes making U.S landfall:1-2

Since I live in the Northeast U.S, might as well make a map showing the likelyhood of a tropical system hitting the coast
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This post has been edited by Weatherjunkie: Mar 24 2008, 06:09 PM


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AnthonyS
post Mar 24 2008, 02:56 PM
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I am counting on the season beginning in mid to late July, with four named storms between July 15 and September 1. After September 1, to November 31, I expect another eight named storms.

I predict that there will be six hurricanes, one in August, three in September, and two in October. Of those hurricanes, two of them will be classified as major in September, and one in October.

So my initial prediction for the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season is:

12 named storms;
6 Hurricanes;
3 Major.

Anthony


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Removed_Member_LETITSNOW_*
post Mar 24 2008, 03:25 PM
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With a La Nina still expected during the Atlantic hurricane season this summer, can anywhere from D.C. to Boston see a tropical storm, or even a hurricane in the dog days of summer? This thread depends on knowledge, but also lots and lots of research to prove your points. Enjoy...

P.S. Unfortunately, I will not be able to join you guys for discussion during hurricane season because I'll be living in France, however, I will be here for every college and professional prediction leading up to it. Post anything you can find about La Ninas in the past and we'll get this thread to a 1000 pager! See ya'll soon!
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blizzardof2009
post Mar 24 2008, 04:07 PM
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I hope the hurricane season isn't as dissapointing as this winter.
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yankee5
post Mar 24 2008, 04:13 PM
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i think its only a matter of time until a major hurricane strikes NYC.
experts say its not a question of if but a question of when.
we are over due the NYC area usually sees a major hurricane every 60 years.
the last major hurricane was "the long island express" in 1938 which struck LI than MA as strong cat 3.
JB said about 2 years ago the NE/NYC/LI area WILL be hit with a major hurricane in any of the next 10 years.
it could happen any year maybe even this year.
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post Mar 24 2008, 04:49 PM
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QUOTE(blizzardof2009 @ Mar 24 2008, 05:07 PM) *
I hope the hurricane season isn't as dissapointing as this winter.

I sure hope not...
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I-95blizzard
post Mar 24 2008, 05:37 PM
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I think the greatest threat for an East Coast hurricane is between July 15-September 1.


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