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> BLIZZARDFAN's Daily Weather Discussions, by WeatherOnTheGo Meteorologist Connor Chown
blizzardfan
post Jul 10 2008, 12:23 PM
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This is a thread that I have started for daily weather discussions across the United States (and includes occasional insights on the tropics...which I will post in the tropical weather thread as well). You can also find these discussions on my weather website (http://weatheronthego.bravejournal.com/). Please feel free to ask questions or comment on anything I put in these discussions...

This post has been edited by blizzardfan: Jul 10 2008, 12:23 PM


--------------------
Connor Chown
E-mail: connorchown@hotmail.com
Weather website: http://weatheronthego.bravejournal.com/

"It's like catching lightning..."
-High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Song: Can I Have This Dance?)
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blizzardfan
post Jul 10 2008, 12:32 PM
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WeatherOnTheGo meteorologist Connor Chown here with your Thursday, July 10th, 2008 Weather Discussion!



TODAY'S WEATHER POINTS...

1.) Yesterday's cold front has cleared the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coastlines. It did so earlier this morning. This is setting up a drier and more comfortable airmass for both today (Thursday) and tomorrow (Friday) across these two regions. Highs in the 70's and 80's, and lower 90's are expected. I know the 90's are hot temperatures, but the reason for it being less humid in these areas with temperatures that high, is because that cold front has cleared the area. Once cold fronts sweep through certain areas, those areas see cooler conditions, but not always cooler temperatures. The temperatures are still high, but the humidity levels are lowering, which is a good thing for all of those who dislike the heat and humidity. It will even feel more comfortable tomorrow across these two regions. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

2.) A weak upper level trough of low pressure may bring a couple of widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms tomorrow (Friday) to Northern New England. I am not thinking these storms are going to be widespread. Also...I am not expecting any severe weather in this area tomorrow either. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

3.) The humidity creeps back up in the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic as we head into this up and coming weekend. It appears that this round of humidity won't be as bad as this last round that the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic experienced. Now...it's not so much the heat that will be noticed...it's more the humidity. This round of warmth and humidity will stick around for a couple of days, before yet another cold front cools the region off for next week. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

4.) The weather next week gets interesting next week along the East Coast. As a cold front races through the area later Sunday, it will touch off some POTENTIALLY strong to severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. It appears that this front is going to come through at the same time a pretty strong trough of low pressure is going to swing through the area. The front and the trough will stall, which may allow what's left of what is now Hurricane Bertha to feed into the two and allow for a heavy rain scenario for New England. Now...some of the computer models try to form a tropical low off of the Carolina's early next week and bring it up the Eastern Seaboard. I have reason to believe this scenario MIGHT take place. So...even though the East Coast may not see that many effects from Bertha...they may see effects from a different tropical system. This scenario will most definitely be watched closely in the coming days. If all things come together...we could be talking about (major) flooding problems for at least Monday and Tuesday of next week along the East Coast. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

5.) The Southeastern United States is going to be in an unsettled weather pattern over the next several days as a cold front will be hard to push all the way Southward. Eventually the front will weaken...but not until early next week. Actually...believe it or not...this is good news for the drought-stricken areas of the Southeastern United States. Some areas may benefit greatly with all of this unsettled weather. Although it will ruin outdoor plans, especially during the afternoon hours. There are a whole bunch of mixed ingredients that are allowing for all of this active weather in the Southeastern United States. First, we have the slow-moving cold front, then we have the increasing warmth and humidity, and final we have an increase in low-level moisture streaming Northward from the Gulf of Mexico and the Carribbean. Expect this unsettled weather to last right through early next week. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

6.) If you live in the Upper Midwest, watch out for strong to severe thunderstorms today. An upper level trough of low pressure will bring with it the chance for some scattered strong to severe afternoon thunderstorms. Some of these storms will be capable of producing small hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

7.) The Desert Southwest will be under the influence of continued showers and thunderstorms over the next several days, due to continued moisture and warmth streaming Northward from the Pacific Ocean. Expect the chance for heavy rain every day for at least the next five days in the Desert Southwest. This is a cause for concern. Some areas will see flooding problems, mostly flash flooding. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

8.) The Pacific Northwest looks dry for the next several days. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.


--------------------
Connor Chown
E-mail: connorchown@hotmail.com
Weather website: http://weatheronthego.bravejournal.com/

"It's like catching lightning..."
-High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Song: Can I Have This Dance?)
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Phased Vort
post Jul 11 2008, 10:41 AM
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Ladies and gentlemen, the regional discussion threads, are supposed to be used for posting mostly by the creator, he or she, take upon themselves to post brief discussions about the current and short-term weather conditions for the specific thread title.

Therefore, the regional discussion threads, should be mostly read-only with the exception of the thread's creator.

The forecast threads for each region are open for that purpose. For users to debate and discuss the specific event related to the thread's title.

The regional discussion threads, after the vote results, which are separate from the forecast threads, are not to be used the same way as the forecast threads. No forecasts should be made and no discussions about events more than one day out are supposed to be allowed in the regional discussion threads.

However, i do see what you mean by "discussion", and agree with you completely. Therefore, to address your concern the regional discussions' thread titles will have the name of the thread's creator included into the title as to reflect that the thread is for the creator's only discussions and therefore, for the most part, should be read-only threads for users other than the creators themselves.

Thanks for the understanding folks.


--------------------
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blizzardfan
post Jul 11 2008, 10:45 AM
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Oh...OK...sorry WhitePlains...I never knew that...thanks for the clarification!


--------------------
Connor Chown
E-mail: connorchown@hotmail.com
Weather website: http://weatheronthego.bravejournal.com/

"It's like catching lightning..."
-High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Song: Can I Have This Dance?)
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Phased Vort
post Jul 11 2008, 11:07 AM
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QUOTE(blizzardfan @ Jul 11 2008, 11:45 AM) *
Oh...OK...sorry WhitePlains...I never knew that...thanks for the clarification!



You are welcome.

Please continue to enjoy your discussion posts by following the clarification above.

This way, you discussions will help those users who do can't understand or read the discussions out of the NWS and its branches.


--------------------
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blizzardfan
post Jul 11 2008, 12:56 PM
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Today's discussion will be posted by 4 p.m. ET this afternoon.


--------------------
Connor Chown
E-mail: connorchown@hotmail.com
Weather website: http://weatheronthego.bravejournal.com/

"It's like catching lightning..."
-High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Song: Can I Have This Dance?)
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blizzardfan
post Jul 11 2008, 02:50 PM
Post #7




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WeatherOnTheGo meteorologist Connor Chown here with your Friday, July 11th, 2008 Weather Discussion!


TODAY'S WEATHER POINTS...

1.) A couple of instability showers are falling in parts of the Northeast today. A few light rain showers are expected through the evening hours tonight...from anywhere from Central New England on northward. The weather should become mostly clear by the late-evening hours. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

2.) Expect rising humidity starting tomorrow across the Eastern third of the United States. You should also expect rising temperatures as well. But...it will be a dry day tomorrow in the Eastern United States (at least the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic). Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

3.) Sunday brings in the real warmth and humidity in the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic...out and ahead of an approaching strong cold front that could bring heavy rainfall and MAYBE some severe weather Sunday afternoon, evening and during the overnight hours. The reason why I say MAYBE some severe weather is because latest indications are to lower the cape levels. You need high cape levels for their to be severe weather. You also need enough instablity along with warmth and humidity...which these regions will most certainly have. So...the severe weather potential has lowered...but the heavy rain potential hasn't lowered. In fact, it has highered. Some areas COULD see in excess of 2 or 3 inches of rainfall with these thunderstorms on Sunday night. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

4.) Then the weather get's interesting on Monday. As eluded to yesterday, some of the computer models were, to me, showing a tropical system developing off of the Carolina coast on Sunday night and bringing it up the Eastern Seaboard during the day Monday. I have studied the some of the computer models more and have looked at some of the latest model data, and most of the computer models don't even show a tropical system forming, or even a weak coastal low forming. The two computer models that do show a storm developing are the NAM model and the CMC model. They don't even bring the storm up the coast. The only area that could be effected by this weak coastal storm (and no...it does not look like a tropical system...although in the end, it could end up being an extra-tropical low pressure system) is Coastal New England, as per the latest model runs. Now...things could most certainly change...but the way I see it is that all of New England is going to see a major rainstorm on Monday. I think that there is going to be a coastal low (not tropical) or MAYBE an extra-tropical low that is going to form somewhere off of the Mid-Atlantic coast and bring in with it heavy rain anywhere from Long Island, New York on northward. This is a situation that I will continue to monitor...so please stay tuned to later forecasts. Some areas may see more than 2 or 3 inches of rain with this POTENTIAL coastal storm. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

5.) Now...because of the potential heavy rain Sunday night (2 to 3"+) with the strong cold front and the potential heavy rain Monday (2 to 3"+) with the potential coastal low, some areas could most certainly see at least some flooding problems. If you do the math correctly, and add those two expected rainfall amounts to together...some places could see between 4 and 6 inches or more of heavy rainfall. This is most definitely a cause for concern for flash flooding. Although...this forecast is not set in stone yet...so please stay tuned to later forecasts.

6.) Things should dry by the middle of next week across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as an area of high pressure brings relatively fair weather. A nice break expected from all of this stormy weather. Although there are some indications that a short wave could bring widespread rain showers next Thursday and/or Friday, I am forecasting dry weather right through at least Friday of next week. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

7.) The Upper Midwest is dealing with scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Expect a large hail, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph, frequent (cloud-to-ground) lightning and torrential downpours anywhere from Northern Minnesota on towards Northern Michigan and Northern North Dakota throughout the rest of this afternoon and even towards the evening hours. Wisconsin could get in on some of the action as well. There is even the possibility of an isolated tornado or two. With the heavy rain, some areas could see localized flash flooding. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

8.) Those showers and thunderstorms in the Midwest will shift towards areas like Northeastern Illinois, Northern and Central Indiana and on into Northern and Central Ohio tomorrow afternoon and evening. Expect at least some of these storms to be on the strong to severe side with small to large hail, damaging winds in excess of 60 or 70 mph, frequent (cloud-to-ground) lightning and torrential downpours. Some areas could see localized flash flooding due to the heavy rainfall expected. There is even the possibility of an isolated tornado or two. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

9.) The Southeastern United States will remain on the stormy side through early next week before relatively dry weather moves on in from Monday onward due to an area of high pressure. Expect scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may be on the strong to severe side each day from today (Friday) through Monday with small hail, gusty winds and torrential downpours. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

10.) THE HEAT IS ON in the Southwestern United States. Some areas are going to hit past 100 degrees today. A cooldown is expected, although brief, this weekend for some areas before the heat rebuilds once again for much of next week. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

11.) Monsoonal rains are in the forecast over the next several days in parts of the Southwestern United States. Although this area of the United States is currently in a drought, localized flash flooding is likely with these monsoon rains in at least some locations due to the rainfall POTENTIALLY coming down in sheets in some cases. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

12.) The Pacific Northwest remains dry and comfortable (temperature-wise) over the next several days. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.


--------------------
Connor Chown
E-mail: connorchown@hotmail.com
Weather website: http://weatheronthego.bravejournal.com/

"It's like catching lightning..."
-High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Song: Can I Have This Dance?)
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blizzardfan
post Jul 14 2008, 04:56 PM
Post #8




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I forgot to post this discussion on Saturday...here it is...

Cold Front Brings Rain AND Severe Weather; Coastal Low; Next Weeks Weather; The Latest on Bertha; The Tropics to Get Active Again in the Long-Range???

WeatherOnTheGo meteorologist Connor Chown here with your Saturday, July 12th, 2008 Weather Discussion!

Although my original plan was to start posting again on Bravenet, I have decided to come back to blogspot and post my daily thoughts and discussions. You can always refer to both this website and my other website 24 hours a day.

Now to the weather...

TONIGHT'S KEY WEATHER POINTS (From BLIZZARDFAN)...

1.) Expect strong to severe thunderstorms to continue to wreak havoc across portions of the Ohio Valley tonight, all thanks to a slow moving cold front. Some of these storms may be on the strong to severe side with large hail, damaging winds, frequent (cloud-to-ground) lightning, torrential downpours and there is even the possibility of a couple or a few isolated tornadoes. Please keep an eye on the radar for your area to see if any storms are going to approach your area. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

2.) That same front that is affecting portions of the Ohio Valley tonight will move Eastward, ever so slowly though, as we head into the day tomorrow. The Ohio Valley, once again, could see more severe weather tomorrow afternoon. These storms make their way farther eastward towards the late-afternoon and evening hours. Areas like Upstate New York, Pennsylvania and throughout the Mid-Atlantic could see strong to severe thunderstorms as we head basically towards the evening hours. The main threat with these storms will be the very heavy rainfall. There is a chance for at least some of the storms to train over same exact areas several times (a.k.a. training thunderstorm cells). If this happens, which is a definite possibility, some places could see localized flash flooding due to the POTENTIAL continuous heavy rainfall. Some areas may see 1 to 2 inches or more of rainfall from tomorrow afternoon through the overnight hours. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

3.) It is an unsettled day in the Northeast on Monday. This same front that I have been talking about is a very slow mover, and probably will not clear the East Coast until Monday afternoon or evening (at least that's what it looks like right now). But for Monday...we also have to keep our eyes on a developing coastal storm off of the Carolina coast. Most of the latest trends are for this coastal storm to not interact with the front and move offshore and not effect any land areas in the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic. There is one outlier computer model as of right now with this coastal storm scenario, and that model is the NAM model. This model is the most aggressive and has a more Northwestward then to the Northward trend with the coastal low. Right now...I am not going with the scenario that the NAM model is eluding to as of right now. My thoughts may change tomorrow though...so please stay tuned. Regardless of whether or not the Northeast and/or the Mid-Atlantic see this coastal storm, the slow-moving and strong cold front will bring stormy weather for these regions right through at least Monday afternoon and/or Monday evening. Some locations could see very heavy rainfall (on the order of 2" or more of rainfall) on Monday alone. That much rain combined with the rainfall from Sunday afternoon/evening/night could make flooding an even worse problem for at least some. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

4.) That front finally clears the coastline sometime later on Monday, allowing an area of high pressure to be in control of our weather in the Eastern two-thirds of the nation for Midweek. A frontal system may bring at least a few showers and/or thunderstorms later on Thursday. Then, another frontal system, maybe stronger than its predecessor, could bring at least some scattered showers and thunderstorms as we head into at least the first part of next weekend. Also...a significant warming trend may take place by the middle to the latter part of next week in the East. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

5.) Bertha will stay out to sea and not directly hit any landmasses, although waves will be higher than normal along the East Coast and also Bermuda. Rip currents and MAYBE minor splashover are a POSSIBILITY. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

6.) A new tropical storm has formed in the Eastern Pacific. Tropical Storm Elida formed early this morning off of the Coast of Mexico. Elida is expected to stay in the Pacific Ocean, although she may be able to bring at least some showers and thunderstorms to parts of Mexico (especially the Mexican coastline). Elida may also become a hurricane by the early to the middle part of this up and coming week. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

7.) The tropics may become active again in the Atlantic Ocean as we head into the long-range (about 10 to 16 days from now). Some of the latest computer model guidance is showing some kind of a significant tropical wave affecting anyone from the Gulf of Mexico to the East Coast in about two weeks from now. If no tropical storms or hurricanes form within the next couple of weeks, then this storm would be named Cristobal. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

This post has been edited by blizzardfan: Jul 14 2008, 04:59 PM


--------------------
Connor Chown
E-mail: connorchown@hotmail.com
Weather website: http://weatheronthego.bravejournal.com/

"It's like catching lightning..."
-High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Song: Can I Have This Dance?)
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blizzardfan
post Jul 14 2008, 04:57 PM
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Now here's today's discussion...

Front Clears East Coast...Severe Storm Threat in Midwest/Plains Wednesday and Beyond...Heat Wave POSSIBLE In The East Later This Week...Active Tropics

WeatherOnTheGo Meteorologist Connor Chown here with your Monday, July 14th, 2008 Weather Discussion!

TODAY'S WEATHER POINTS:

1.) The front that brought all of the severe weather in the Northeast yesterday and the morning rainshowers today in New England has not cleared the coastline yet...but it will do so by late this evening. Before this front clears the coastline, a few scattered showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out anywhere but not everywhere in Eastern portions of New England. I am not expecting any of these storms to be on the strong OR the severe side. But...once this front clears the coastline, it will bring in drier and much more comfortable air for the day tomorrow (Tuesday). Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

2.) The Midwest and the Plains will experience a brief, but also a well-needed, break from the severe weather today(Monday) and tomorrow(Tuesday). Then things go downhill, weather-wise, towards the midweek right through late-week. A strong cold front is expected to dive southward out of Canada and position itself in the Midwest and the Plains, at the same time increasing low level moisture and instability will be surging northward out of the Gulf of Mexico. This will help to create scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms every day from Wednesday right through at least the start of the weekend. The potential is there for heavy rainfall in portions of the Plains...which is not needed after all of the flooding problems that they have been experiencing so far this summer. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

3.) A heat wave could be coming to the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic later this week. Starting Thursday, enough heat and humidity will be coming out of the Gulf of Mexico to allow for a POTENTIALLY soupy airmass to set in place across these two regions. There are some questions as to whether a backdoor cold front is going to keep the temperatures cooler enough or not for at least New England. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

4.) A frontal system could bring scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms this coming Sunday in the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic. Some of the latest indications are that this front is going to stall somewhere in Southern New England, and also allow for several disturbances to ride along this front. How strong and the speed of this front and the disturbances will have to be ironed out over the next few days...so please stay tuned to later forecasts. There is the POTENTIAL for severe weather, although that is most certainly not set in stone at this time.

5.) Tropical Storm Bertha continues to sit and spin near Bermuda as of this writing. She is continuing to move at a very slow pace. Some of the latest indications are that Bertha is going to take a wild and sort-of "S"-shaped track out to sea. She is expected to make more of a Northeast turn over the next few days and will continue to move very slowly though. My guess is that as Bertha moves into cooler waters, she will become extra-tropical. Bertha is not that much of a threat to the United States, although there is a risk for rip currents along the Eastern Seaboard as this storm continues to sit and spin off of the East Coast. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

6.) There are some indications that a tropical low might form in the Gulf of Mexico in the short-term. I am not buying some of these indications, but I cannot rule it out. If a storm does form, I don't think it will be all that significant. If it were to be named a storm, it's name would be Cristobal, but I am not too confident that anything tropical is going to form in the Gulf of Mexico for at least the next 48 hours. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

7.) There are also some indications that a tropical low might form off of the Southeast United States coast. As a slow-moving cold front continues to push off of the coast, although weaken with time, it will help this already well-known swirl to POSSIBLY strengthen into a tropical system in the short term (possibly the next 24 to 36 hours). This is not completely set in stone yet...so please stay tuned to later forecasts. Also, where this storm heads is still in question, but I am guessing it is going to be a slow mover as there is nothing to steer it in any direction that fast in the steering currents. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

8.) There is an interesting tropical wave that moved off of the Cape Verde Islands a couple of days ago. This storm has to be closely monitored for any land areas that are near the Atlantic Ocean. This storm will probably strengthen into a tropical depression either tonight or tomorrow and POSSIBLY a into a tropical storm by the middle to the end of this week. It's possible that this storm becomes a hurricane in the longer range. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

This post has been edited by blizzardfan: Jul 14 2008, 04:58 PM


--------------------
Connor Chown
E-mail: connorchown@hotmail.com
Weather website: http://weatheronthego.bravejournal.com/

"It's like catching lightning..."
-High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Song: Can I Have This Dance?)
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blizzardfan
post Jul 15 2008, 12:05 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 2,364
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Suncook, New Hampshire
Member No.: 12,314





I will not be posting a discussion today...sorry for any inconvenience.


--------------------
Connor Chown
E-mail: connorchown@hotmail.com
Weather website: http://weatheronthego.bravejournal.com/

"It's like catching lightning..."
-High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Song: Can I Have This Dance?)
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blizzardfan
post Jul 23 2008, 05:56 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Suncook, New Hampshire
Member No.: 12,314





Here's from my discussion that was posted on my blog yesterday. Sorry I forgot to post it yesterday.

An interesting situation is setting up in the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic for the middle of this week. We have mulitple factors in this situation that could be dangerous for some locations. Ok...what am I talking about here. I am talking about the potential for flooding in a lot of areas over the next couple to a few days. Here are those factors I was talking about...

NORTHEAST FLOODING FACTORS...

1.) Stalled-out frontal boundary.

2.) Trough of low pressure that is having a hard time lifting out of the area.

3.) A dig in the Jet Stream.

4.) Increasing sub-tropical moisture streaming Northward both the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. The moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is moving Northeastward.

These multiple factors are going to play a huge role in the weather for the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic for tomorrow (Wednesday) and Thursday. First, lets talk about the stalled-out frontal boundary. This frontal-boundary is a strong front and will move into the Northeast starting tonight...setting off numerous showers and thunderstorms that are already evident on the radars. In fact, flood advisories are already up for portions of Southern New Hampshire and Northwestern Massachusetts by the National Weather Service due to these thunderstorms producing very heavy downpours. This is seperate from the "main event" that will bring the most significant storminess over the next few days. This frontal boundary is going to stall out (which is why it is referred to as a stalled-out frontal boundary). As it does so, it will allow the Jet Stream (remember that the Jet Stream acts to steer storms) to dig across the Northeast. This will dig in the Jet Stream will allow for the continued trough to keep it's hold across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This digging will also allow for an increase in subtropical moisture to makes it way northward from both the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. All of these factors explained will help to create POTENTIALLY significant flooding in at lease some locations in the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic. The trick in getting this forecast right is where the stalled-out frontal boundary is actually going to stall (which will determine where the heaviest axis of the rainfall will occur). As I see it right now, it looks like the heaviest rainfall will occur in Western New England(particularly in Central and Northern Vermont) and in Upstate New York. It is in these areas that could potentially see 4 to 6" of rainfall or more. I am not trying to hypecast here...but due to the amount of moisture and instability that will be in place during all of this storminess, I would not be surprised in how some locations in the "heaviest rain swath" see up to 8 inches of rainfall. I am not saying that someone IS actually going to see that much rainfall...but I am just stressing the possibility that someone COULD and I mean COULD see that much rainfall. Anywho...4 to 6 inches is a LOT of rainfall, regardless of whether those areas see up to 8 inches of rainfall. It's in the swath that you see on my scenario map above of where it says 4 to 6"+ is where significant flooding on rivers and streams and road washouts are possible. The farther East you go, the less rain you will see, and the lesser threat of flooding there is. I will have more on this scenario in tomorrow's discussion. Please stay tuned to later forecasts.


--------------------
Connor Chown
E-mail: connorchown@hotmail.com
Weather website: http://weatheronthego.bravejournal.com/

"It's like catching lightning..."
-High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Song: Can I Have This Dance?)
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blizzardfan
post Jul 23 2008, 05:57 PM
Post #12




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Joined: 11-January 08
From: Suncook, New Hampshire
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Here is from my discussion today that is posted on my weather website...

NORTHEAST & MID-ATLANTIC...DANGEROUS SITUATION: Another big weather story today across the United States are the tropical downpours that are bringing a deluge of rainfall to at least some areas in the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic regions as of this writing. As eluded to in yesterdays discussion...flooding is taking place in the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic right now. Also...interesting enough...severe weather is taking place in a lot of locations in especially the Northeast. Yesterday, I really forecasting for severe weather to be a no-show with this event for most locations in the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic. Why, you may ask? Because...originally I was thinking most areas would be seeing more in the way of cloudiness that would help to prevent severe thunderstorms from developing today. Obviously, by looking at the MAP OF MULTIPLE WATCHES, WARNINGS & ADVISORIES on the National Weather Services (NWS') website, that is not the case. There is a whole lot of severe weather taking place in the Northeast today. Expect large hail, damaging winds, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and the possibility of an isolated tornado or two anywhere across the Northeast for the rest of this afternoon and evening due to the continuation of all of this storminess. Now...back to the rainfall...I am even more concerned today than I was yesterday in regards to the flooding likelihoods in Eastern New York and particularly Western New England. The reason why I am more concerned is that the latest NAM model run has portions of Eastern New York, Western Vermont and Western Massachusetts under the gun for up to 10 inches of rainfall. Now...the only question is...is this computer model wrong in it's forecasts? I think at least a little bit, as of right now. Due to the increasing tropical moisture feed from both the Gulf of Mexico and Bermuda and this strong, but slow-moving cold front rolling through, some areas could POTENTIALLY see 6 to 8 inches or more of rainfall. If this much rain falls, flash flooding would likely occur due to this rainfall and rainfall over the past few days that has caused flash flooding in some locations. Be on guard for flash flooding on AT LEAST the smaller rivers and streams (in which at least some of the rivers and streams may come out of their banks). Also...road washouts and basement flooding are certain possibilities at this point and time. Please stay tuned to later forecasts as I will try to update you on this website with the latest information on this latest storminess that is effect the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic today on this weather website.


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Connor Chown
E-mail: connorchown@hotmail.com
Weather website: http://weatheronthego.bravejournal.com/

"It's like catching lightning..."
-High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Song: Can I Have This Dance?)
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