Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> U.S. Current POLICY CHANGE: Storm Thread Titles, Upcoming Regional Winter Storm Changes
Phased Vort
post Sep 20 2008, 08:52 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 17,845
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





The test uses the following for the thread titles for the storms in the fall and winter:

The thread title will be updated accordingly to address the current range and degree of possibility of the event actually happening. Right now, when a storm is in the long range time frame which is also the Fantasy range, the thread title will look like this example:

Attached Image Sept 27-28 MidAtl/NE Coastal Storm Speculation
Cogitation: Long Range [192-384 Hours Out] Discussion



Once the system is in the Medium range, if it survives until then, the word Speculation on the thread title will be replaced by the word Forecasts, which is when, real forecasting should start and speculation should end. In this range the thread title will look like this example:

Attached Image Sept 27-28 MidAtl/NE Coastal Storm Forecasts
Possibility: Medium Range [90-180 Hours Out] Discussion



Once the system enters the short range, then the thread title will be updated to to display this example:

Attached Image Sept 27-28 MidAtl/NE Coastal Storm Forecasts
Reality: Short Range [0-84 Hours Out] Discussion



Hopefully this will make readers aware that in the long range speculation time period of the thread, everything that is discussed is more speculation than possibility or even reality. Also, this will help those with less weather knowledge pick the difference between the time ranges and in the process know in which of the ranges wishcasting is more likely than actuality.

Additionally, this should also keep the thread titles more organized, descriptive and more informative.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.



Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMatrix
post Sep 21 2008, 06:28 PM
Post #2




Admin
***

Group: Administrator
Posts: 7,121
Joined: 6-March 05
From: State College, PA
Member No.: 2





P.S.: This decision was made by the moderators and I don't think that it's a big of enough change to warrant a vote. We're only talking titles here.

QUOTE(WhitePlainsNYBlizzard @ Sep 20 2008, 10:52 PM) *
The test uses the following for the thread titles for the storms in the fall and winter:

The thread title will be updated accordingly to address the current range and degree of possibility of the event actually happening. Right now, when a storm is in the long range time frame which is also the Fantasy range, the thread title will look like this example:

Attached Image Sept 27-28 MidAtl/NE Coastal Storm Speculation
Cogitation: Long Range [192-384 Hours Out] Discussion

Once the system is in the Medium range, if it survives until then, the word Speculation on the thread title will be replaced by the word Forecasts, which is when, real forecasting should start and speculation should end. In this range the thread title will look like this example:

Attached Image Sept 27-28 MidAtl/NE Coastal Storm Forecasts
Possibility: Medium Range [90-180 Hours Out] Discussion

Once the system enters the short range, then the thread title will be updated to to display this example:

Attached Image Sept 27-28 MidAtl/NE Coastal Storm Forecasts
Reality: Short Range [0-84 Hours Out] Discussion

Hopefully this will make readers aware that in the long range speculation time period of the thread, everything that is discussed is more speculation than possibility or even reality. Also, this will help those with less weather knowledge pick the difference between the time ranges and in the process know in which of the ranges wishcasting is more likely than actuality.

Additionally, this should also keep the thread titles more organized, descriptive and more informative.



--------------------
-- Jesse Ferrell, FORUM ADMIN & MODERATOR

-- AccuWeather.com Meteorologist / Social Media Coordinator

-- My Blog | My Facebook Page




HELPFUL LINKS: MODEL FAQ / WEATHER QUESTIONS | FORUM FAQ / QUESTIONS
STAY ON TOPIC! TALK ABOUT PAST STORMS | TALK ABOUT NON-WEATHER STUFF
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Chicago Storm
post Sep 21 2008, 06:45 PM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 34,724
Joined: 14-February 08
From: The 630
Member No.: 13,697





QUOTE(WhitePlainsNYBlizzard @ Sep 20 2008, 09:52 PM) *
The test uses the following for the thread titles for the storms in the fall and winter:

The thread title will be updated accordingly to address the current range and degree of possibility of the event actually happening. Right now, when a storm is in the long range time frame which is also the Fantasy range, the thread title will look like this example:

Attached Image Sept 27-28 MidAtl/NE Coastal Storm Speculation
Cogitation: Long Range [192-384 Hours Out] Discussion

Once the system is in the Medium range, if it survives until then, the word Speculation on the thread title will be replaced by the word Forecasts, which is when, real forecasting should start and speculation should end. In this range the thread title will look like this example:

Attached Image Sept 27-28 MidAtl/NE Coastal Storm Forecasts
Possibility: Medium Range [90-180 Hours Out] Discussion

Once the system enters the short range, then the thread title will be updated to to display this example:

Attached Image Sept 27-28 MidAtl/NE Coastal Storm Forecasts
Reality: Short Range [0-84 Hours Out] Discussion

Hopefully this will make readers aware that in the long range speculation time period of the thread, everything that is discussed is more speculation than possibility or even reality. Also, this will help those with less weather knowledge pick the difference between the time ranges and in the process know in which of the ranges wishcasting is more likely than actuality.

Additionally, this should also keep the thread titles more organized, descriptive and more informative.

I would have to disagree with the speculation portion on a few terms. First this would bring more wishcasts into play, which angers some members, which is what we are trying to get away from. Also many storms that are that far out never come to be realized, thus there would be many topics sitting in the forum not being used and cluttering up the forum. Though I do understand what your ideas are trying to get toward.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Sep 21 2008, 06:58 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 17,845
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





QUOTE(Chicago Storm @ Sep 21 2008, 08:45 PM) *
I would have to disagree with the speculation portion on a few terms. First this would bring more wishcasts into play, which angers some members, which is what we are trying to get away from. Also many storms that are that far out never come to be realized, thus there would be many topics sitting in the forum not being used and cluttering up the forum. Though I do understand what your ideas are trying to get toward.



Since no agreement has ever been reached concerning the prohibition of starting thread that are more than 180 hours out, user will still be able to start threads about any "ghost" events they see on the GFS on hour 384 or any time frame beyond 180 hours.

As a result, the change in approach related to the thread titles. Speculation refers to those threads that include events that out in the so called "fantasy land", so users know that anything discussed in those threads while the event is still more than 192 hours out, it's mostly all speculation, wishcasting and broad pattern analysis.

PS: I have received suggestions that say the usage of the word "Fantasy" for the long range titles was not good but the word speculation was perfect. However, now, as you stated, you do not like the word "Speculation"

So unless, a solution is implemented to not allow threads for events that are more than 180 hours out to be started, we will continue to have to deal with what you mentioned above.

The thread title scheme is to make the titles more descriptive, organized and let users know that which ranges the storms events are and how credible or accurate they are.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.



Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
DomNH
post Sep 21 2008, 07:02 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 10,181
Joined: 7-January 08
From: Nashua, New Hampshire
Member No.: 11,976





If we can't agree on the wording, I propose something like this:

FOR EXAMPLE:

Long Range: Jan. 7-9 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm Forecasts (192-380 hours out)
Medium Range: Jan. 7-9 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm Forecasts (90-180 hours out)
Short Range: Jan. 7-9 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm Forecasts (Less than 90 hours out)

Then we have the observations thread as usual.


--------------------

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Chicago Storm
post Sep 21 2008, 07:06 PM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 34,724
Joined: 14-February 08
From: The 630
Member No.: 13,697





QUOTE(WhitePlainsNYBlizzard @ Sep 21 2008, 07:58 PM) *
Since no agreement has ever been reached concerning the prohibition of starting thread that are more than 180 hours out, user will still be able to start threads about any "ghost" events they see on the GFS on hour 384 or any time frame beyond 180 hours.

As a result, the change in approach related to the thread titles. Speculation refers to those threads that include events that out in the so called "fantasy land", so users know that anything discussed in those threads while the event is still more than 192 hours out, it's mostly all speculation, wishcasting and broad pattern analysis.

PS: I have received suggestions that say the usage of the word "Fantasy" for the long range titles was not good but the word speculation was perfect. However, now, as you stated, you do not like the word "Speculation"

So unless, a solution is implemented to not allow threads for events that are more than 180 hours out to be started, we will continue to have to deal with what you mentioned above.

The thread title scheme is to make the titles more descriptive, organized and let users know that which ranges the storms events are and how credible or accurate they are.

As these are the new guidlines, speculation is better than using fantasy. I totally get what you are trying to do for us users. Just that I had a few concerns. smile.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_starsinmysky_*
post Sep 21 2008, 07:07 PM
Post #7







Guests








QUOTE(DS2434 @ Sep 21 2008, 09:02 PM) *
If we can't agree on the wording, I propose something like this:

FOR EXAMPLE:

Long Range: Jan. 7-9 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm Forecasts (192-380 hours out)
Medium Range: Jan. 7-9 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm Forecasts (90-180 hours out)
Short Range: Jan. 7-9 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm Forecasts (Less than 90 hours out)

Then we have the observations thread as usual.


I like that idea better. I like the word "fantasy." We all know to take anything after 180 hrs with a grain of salt. Relability is not all that high with concern to the longer range. We all see models flip flop storms, make them disappear, even "cha cha cha." Higher relability in the medium range and especially in the shorter range. I can't remember if one fantasy land storm actually came true or not. Still don't like the idea of longer rage fantasy land storm threads. wink.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
missmarisa
post Sep 21 2008, 07:07 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 7,804
Joined: 3-December 07
From: Far NW NJ
Member No.: 11,489





QUOTE(WhitePlainsNYBlizzard @ Sep 20 2008, 10:52 PM) *
The test uses the following for the thread titles for the storms in the fall and winter:

The thread title will be updated accordingly to address the current range and degree of possibility of the event actually happening. Right now, when a storm is in the long range time frame which is also the Fantasy range, the thread title will look like this example:

Attached Image Sept 27-28 MidAtl/NE Coastal Storm Speculation
Cogitation: Long Range [192-384 Hours Out] Discussion



Once the system is in the Medium range, if it survives until then, the word Speculation on the thread title will be replaced by the word Forecasts, which is when, real forecasting should start and speculation should end. In this range the thread title will look like this example:

Attached Image Sept 27-28 MidAtl/NE Coastal Storm Forecasts
Possibility: Medium Range [90-180 Hours Out] Discussion



Once the system enters the short range, then the thread title will be updated to to display this example:

Attached Image Sept 27-28 MidAtl/NE Coastal Storm Forecasts
Reality: Short Range [0-84 Hours Out] Discussion



Hopefully this will make readers aware that in the long range speculation time period of the thread, everything that is discussed is more speculation than possibility or even reality. Also, this will help those with less weather knowledge pick the difference between the time ranges and in the process know in which of the ranges wishcasting is more likely than actuality.

Additionally, this should also keep the thread titles more organized, descriptive and more informative.


I like it! If speculation attracts wishcasters and that angers some members, then I'm certain there are other threads they will be more than happy to post in, and avoid the speculation threads altogether.

Listen...we can't please everyone...but we're trying. This is a good start. And if it doesn't work, then we don't have to keep it...but at least it's something. wink.gif


Dom has a good compromise, also.



--------------------





Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Chicago Storm
post Sep 21 2008, 07:08 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 34,724
Joined: 14-February 08
From: The 630
Member No.: 13,697





QUOTE(DS2434 @ Sep 21 2008, 08:02 PM) *
If we can't agree on the wording, I propose something like this:

FOR EXAMPLE:

Long Range: Jan. 7-9 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm Forecasts (192-380 hours out)
Medium Range: Jan. 7-9 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm Forecasts (90-180 hours out)
Short Range: Jan. 7-9 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm Forecasts (Less than 90 hours out)

Then we have the observations thread as usual.

I would be fine with that also. Its just i'm still do not think talking about storms past 240hr on the GFS is a good thing to do, unlees both the GFS and ECMWF are showing it.

This post has been edited by Chicago Storm: Sep 21 2008, 07:09 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
missmarisa
post Sep 21 2008, 07:12 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 7,804
Joined: 3-December 07
From: Far NW NJ
Member No.: 11,489





QUOTE(Chicago Storm @ Sep 21 2008, 09:08 PM) *
I would be fine with that also. Its just i'm still do not think talking about storms past 240hr on the gFS is a good thing to do, unlees both the GFS and ECMWF are showing it.



It's not a good thing because it isn't reliable...But while most members recognize that fact, you will have other members who will start a topic at 240 hours.....why not flag the topic right away somehow to let the more novice members know not to hang their hats on the discussion?? tongue.gif


--------------------





Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Weatherman Tyler
post Sep 21 2008, 07:18 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 4,571
Joined: 8-January 08
From: State College, PA
Member No.: 12,145





QUOTE(Bl1zzard @ Sep 21 2008, 09:10 PM) *
It's not that I don't like the word "speculation" now, I merely created a new argument in my head against the addition of any adjectives to the titles. Speculation is a much better term than fantasy if you must use either, I just don't like the fact that in the forums 15 days out is considered speculation but the parent site of accuweather provides "accurate" forecasts to 15 days. They don't label it as speculation there and thus I feel it would not be prudent to do so here.



All decision are completed, and will not be changed for minor disagreements. AccuWeather forecasts are "accurate" because they are issued by a hired person/AccuWx computer.

Our threads will be labeled speculation because the forecasts contained in them ARE NOT WRITTEN by AccuWeather. Therefore, a storm between 168-380 hours out may ONLY be speculated upon by any random member. Most times, these speculated storms will NOT appear in the AccuWeather 15 day forecast. If they are, then we may consider them a possibilty.

Jesse has already ruled that this was a minor change, and agreement from others was not needed for this simple decision.


--------------------
Student Meteorologist Tyler Jankoski
The Pennsylvania State University '14
www.TylersWeather.com




Northwest Connecticut Weather:
www.TylersWeather.com
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMatrix
post Sep 22 2008, 08:20 AM
Post #12




Admin
***

Group: Administrator
Posts: 7,121
Joined: 6-March 05
From: State College, PA
Member No.: 2





Hi Guys,

We're not here to debate the morality of 15-day Forecasts, ONLY TO DISCUSS THE TITLE CHANGE. Thanks!

It seems like everyone pretty much agrees for now, and we were really going above and beyond by opening this for discussion I think...


--------------------
-- Jesse Ferrell, FORUM ADMIN & MODERATOR

-- AccuWeather.com Meteorologist / Social Media Coordinator

-- My Blog | My Facebook Page




HELPFUL LINKS: MODEL FAQ / WEATHER QUESTIONS | FORUM FAQ / QUESTIONS
STAY ON TOPIC! TALK ABOUT PAST STORMS | TALK ABOUT NON-WEATHER STUFF
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SIndigurl8378
post Sep 22 2008, 03:37 PM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 509
Joined: 12-January 08
From: Georgetown, IN
Member No.: 12,404





Hi guys and gals:
I normally dont put my 2 cents in and even if I do, I feel noone really cares or listens, but I feel I should on this.

In my OPINION I think maybe, instead of using the words suggested, maybe use just the stop lights? Maybe create some kind of legend with the lights saying what they mean on the page so members or quests can see them and know what they mean.

Im my eyes, no one is going to be happy with this word or that word. someone is always going to find something wrong. I would avoid any argument by using the Stop light idea. Again, just my opinion.
thank you

This post has been edited by SIndigurl8378: Sep 22 2008, 03:38 PM


--------------------
Wheres the snow?


Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_baltimore_big_daddy_*
post Sep 24 2008, 07:05 PM
Post #14







Guests








QUOTE(starsinmysky @ Sep 21 2008, 09:07 PM) *
I like that idea better. I like the word "fantasy." We all know to take anything after 180 hrs with a grain of salt. Relability is not all that high with concern to the longer range. We all see models flip flop storms, make them disappear, even "cha cha cha." Higher relability in the medium range and especially in the shorter range. I can't remember if one fantasy land storm actually came true or not. Still don't like the idea of longer rage fantasy land storm threads. wink.gif
i agree, i really dont get excited about anything farther out that 5- 7 days
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMatrix
post Sep 25 2008, 11:58 AM
Post #15




Admin
***

Group: Administrator
Posts: 7,121
Joined: 6-March 05
From: State College, PA
Member No.: 2





The stoplights might be difficult to implement, I'm not sure.



--------------------
-- Jesse Ferrell, FORUM ADMIN & MODERATOR

-- AccuWeather.com Meteorologist / Social Media Coordinator

-- My Blog | My Facebook Page




HELPFUL LINKS: MODEL FAQ / WEATHER QUESTIONS | FORUM FAQ / QUESTIONS
STAY ON TOPIC! TALK ABOUT PAST STORMS | TALK ABOUT NON-WEATHER STUFF
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMatrix
post Oct 3 2008, 06:15 PM
Post #16




Admin
***

Group: Administrator
Posts: 7,121
Joined: 6-March 05
From: State College, PA
Member No.: 2





One final clarification, we decided to use days (0-3, 3-8, 8-15) instead of the originally suggested hours.


--------------------
-- Jesse Ferrell, FORUM ADMIN & MODERATOR

-- AccuWeather.com Meteorologist / Social Media Coordinator

-- My Blog | My Facebook Page




HELPFUL LINKS: MODEL FAQ / WEATHER QUESTIONS | FORUM FAQ / QUESTIONS
STAY ON TOPIC! TALK ABOUT PAST STORMS | TALK ABOUT NON-WEATHER STUFF
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 19th April 2014 - 07:02 AM