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> Oct. 12-15 NE/MidAtl Storm Forecasts, Possibility: Medium Range [4-7 Days Out] Disco
Hunter Outten
post Oct 4 2008, 06:47 AM
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i have been noticing on the models that a strong Great Lakes cutter with a strong cold front push its way into the eastern US with a big dip in the jet with alot of energy in place

MSLP 1000mb 6hr precip


250mb Streamlines


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NYCSuburbs
post Oct 4 2008, 08:40 AM
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QUOTE(Hunter Outten @ Oct 4 2008, 08:47 AM) *
i have been noticing on the models that a strong Great Lakes cutter with a strong cold front push its way into the eastern US with a big dip in the jet with alot of energy in place

MSLP 1000mb 6hr precip


250mb Streamlines


That's also close to what I am forecasting, in my discussion for the NYC Area, I noted that I am expecting dry conditions until mid-October as a large-scale weather event takes place for the NE. Some places in Canada could see heavy wet snow. This could also begin a colder period of time with widespread freeze.

Back to the severe weather potential, I do not expect much severe weather, if yes then it would probably be isolated at the southern edge of the storm, but this is a possibility we need to consider, as by late fall there are usually big storms.
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Removed_Member_snowmaninbuffalo_*
post Oct 4 2008, 09:09 AM
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Using a 5:1 ratio the GFS shows a little snowstorm for western and central NY at 252 hours out which isn't in fantasy range. Of course the GFS is gonna change and that storm will be out of there one day then right back in the models the next day, but it's something to keep an eye on.
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Hunter Outten
post Oct 4 2008, 09:16 AM
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QUOTE(snowmaninbuffalo @ Oct 4 2008, 11:09 AM) *
Using a 5:1 ratio the GFS shows a little snowstorm for western and central NY at 252 hours out which isn't in fantasy range. Of course the GFS is gonna change and that storm will be out of there one day then right back in the models the next day, but it's something to keep an eye on.

yea for sure. could be the first snow in the northeast. aswell as the possibilty of strong storms along that cold front. but in the later hours it has this nice cold pocket trapped in the low which can surely bring snow. even so some lake event might kick in by the show of this



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Removed_Member_snowmaninbuffalo_*
post Oct 4 2008, 09:23 AM
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QUOTE(Hunter Outten @ Oct 4 2008, 11:16 AM) *
yea for sure. could be the first snow in the northeast. aswell as the possibilty of strong storms along that cold front. but in the later hours it has this nice cold pocket trapped in the low which can surely bring snow. even so some lake event might kick in by the show of this


Definitely! Using 10:1 ratios (a little extreme for October) it brings western and central new york up to 4-6 inches of snow which would be a record . I'm not saying that this won't happen but the likely hood of 4-6 inches is unlikely. However if the models show constancy i do think 2-3 inches is possible. And I think lake effect will really get cranking off Lake Erie with a SW flow, Buffalo and the northern suburbs could get hammered if this were to play out right!
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Chicago Storm
post Oct 4 2008, 09:23 AM
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I believe this topic is for the Northeast. So per new forum guidlines the title should look like this, along with the sub-header:

Oct. 12-15th Northeast/Mid-Atl Storm Forecasts
Cogitation: Long Range [8-15 Days Out] Discussion


This post has been edited by Chicago Storm: Oct 4 2008, 09:24 AM
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Hunter Outten
post Oct 4 2008, 09:24 AM
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QUOTE(snowmaninbuffalo @ Oct 4 2008, 11:23 AM) *
Definitely! Using 10:1 ratios (a little extreme for October) it brings western and central new york up to 4-6 inches of snow which would be a record . I'm not saying that this won't happen but the likely hood of 4-6 inches is unlikely. However if the models show constancy i do think 2-3 inches is possible. And I think lake effect will really get cranking off Lake Erie with a SW flow, Buffalo and the northern suburbs could get hammered if this were to play out right!


haha were all hoping are we. but this is is the third day so far i have seen this storm even tho its so far out.


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post Oct 4 2008, 09:27 AM
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QUOTE(Hunter Outten @ Oct 4 2008, 11:24 AM) *
haha were all hoping are we. but this is is the third day so far i have seen this storm even tho its so far out.

consistency is key wink.gif
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Removed_Member_snowmaninbuffalo_*
post Oct 4 2008, 09:31 AM
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I hope I get to use my power shovel that I just bought today =]
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Hunter Outten
post Oct 4 2008, 09:33 AM
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QUOTE(snowmaninbuffalo @ Oct 4 2008, 11:31 AM) *
I hope I get to use my power shovel that I just bought today =]


haha there u go. new GFS is coming out now. lets see if it keeps it or lose it


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Removed_Member_snowmaninbuffalo_*
post Oct 4 2008, 09:34 AM
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QUOTE(Hunter Outten @ Oct 4 2008, 11:33 AM) *
haha there u go. new GFS is coming out now. lets see if it keeps it or lose it

I cant wait until daylight savings time when the GFS comes out 1 hour earlier!
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post Oct 4 2008, 09:49 AM
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GFS threw that idea out the window sad.gif
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Hunter Outten
post Oct 4 2008, 09:51 AM
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QUOTE(snowmaninbuffalo @ Oct 4 2008, 11:49 AM) *
GFS threw that idea out the window sad.gif

sure did well away. but it will go back and forth until it makes up its mind



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Removed_Member_snowmaninbuffalo_*
post Oct 4 2008, 09:59 AM
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QUOTE(Hunter Outten @ Oct 4 2008, 11:51 AM) *
sure did well away. but it will go back and forth until it makes up its mind


That's okay lol, I remember about a 2 weeks ago when the GFS just started to recognize this cold outbreak that happened the past few days. It showed it cold then really warm then really cold ect... till eventually it came up with a cold solution which showed up to be true over the past few days here in the GL and NE.
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Oct 4 2008, 11:23 AM
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I think we all learned last year that relying on the GFS snowfall accumulation charts was not the way to go. They are not very accurate at all. I know there are a few that live and die by them but that is because they show what you want to see.
If you were using the 6z GFS model run for that chart of snowfall totals that you posted...here is your temperatures for 18 Z which is the time frame that the chart is showing...

Attached Image

As you can plainly see temperatures are really not cold enough for snowfall

This is why forecasting storms so far into the long range beyond 180 hours becomes less and less accurate wink.gif
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Removed_Member_snowmaninbuffalo_*
post Oct 4 2008, 12:55 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Oct 4 2008, 01:23 PM) *
I think we all learned last year that relying on the GFS snowfall accumulation charts was not the way to go. They are not very accurate at all. I know there are a few that live and die by them but that is because they show what you want to see.
If you were using the 6z GFS model run for that chart of snowfall totals that you posted...here is your temperatures for 18 Z which is the time frame that the chart is showing...

Attached Image

As you can plainly see temperatures are really not cold enough for snowfall

This is why forecasting storms so far into the long range beyond 180 hours becomes less and less accurate wink.gif

good point... I don't really like to go with the GFS with any storm further than 180 hours out either, however they are fun to look at laugh.gif
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Removed_Member_snowmaninbuffalo_*
post Oct 4 2008, 01:29 PM
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It will be interesting to see the 18z GFS. I love seeing what the GFS says every 6 hours.
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Hunter Outten
post Oct 4 2008, 06:36 PM
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QUOTE(snowmaninbuffalo @ Oct 4 2008, 03:29 PM) *
It will be interesting to see the 18z GFS. I love seeing what the GFS says every 6 hours.


well new GFS has a much stronger solution but still remaining well west.







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Hunter Outten
post Oct 4 2008, 06:44 PM
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wow good looking negative tilt trough over in the east with this last run



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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Oct 4 2008, 06:49 PM
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18 Z GFS actually has two S/Ws.....one that moves from the TX/OK panhandle on a NNW fashion heading into the upper ohio valley region and the lakes. However this low dies off and transfers its energy to a new low starting at 96 hours out. This new low then begins to organize over the Carolinas and then moves NE off the Delmarva region ...
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And temperatures are primarily in the 50s and 60s....
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