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> Oct. 17-19 MidAtl/NE Coastal Storm Forecasts, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] Discussion
WeatherMatrix
post Oct 9 2008, 08:23 AM
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I'm posting this not because I really think it's going to happen, but because...

1. This is the first GFS prediction of a snowstorm in the Northeast this fall laugh.gif
2. I think this points to the overall pattern near the end of October which JB has mentioned:

QUOTE
Joe turned us on to an even-shorter term cold snap that he expects around either side of Halloween (by a week or two). Although the bulk of the cold will center in the middle of the nation, the cold and winter weather that we experienced in the Fall of 2002 here in State College, PA was mentioned, when we had to go trick-or-treating in the snow (it's impossible to predict precip that far out, but the cold air will be there).

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weatherspmd
post Oct 9 2008, 08:28 AM
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Thats a early snow... All depends how deep that trough digs..


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- Rainfall Total Since 12/1/09= 3.37"
- Ice Total Since 12/1/09 =0.1"
- Snowfall Total Since 12/1/09 =22.1"
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Phased Vort
post Oct 9 2008, 10:10 AM
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QUOTE(weatherspmd @ Oct 9 2008, 10:28 AM) *
Thats a early snow... All depends how deep that trough digs..




Although we know that this as of now, is all speculation and not reality concerning the actual event, it's good to see the rain-snow line right over my place this early in the season, if one believes the fantasy long range and those GFS snow maps.


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Phased Vort
post Oct 9 2008, 10:22 AM
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Here is the culprit:

Today's 00Z GFS:


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That's cold!


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Removed_Member_snowmaninbuffalo_*
post Oct 9 2008, 10:30 AM
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QUOTE(WhitePlainsNYBlizzard @ Oct 9 2008, 12:22 PM) *
Here is the culprit:

Today's 00Z GFS:


Attached Image


Attached Image


That's cold!

If you extrapolated those temperatures down to the surface what would the 528 line be in terms of temperature?
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Phased Vort
post Oct 9 2008, 10:40 AM
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QUOTE(snowmaninbuffalo @ Oct 9 2008, 12:30 PM) *
If you extrapolated those temperatures down to the surface what would the 528 line be in terms of temperature?



I'd say temperatures would be hard pressed to clim much inside that trough. Could range from 35F to 45F for Highs and 30's for low with possibly colder locations.


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Removed_Member_snowmaninbuffalo_*
post Oct 9 2008, 10:48 AM
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QUOTE(WhitePlainsNYBlizzard @ Oct 9 2008, 12:40 PM) *
I'd say temperatures would be hard pressed to clim much inside that trough. Could range from 35F to 45F for Highs and 30's for low with possibly colder locations.


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Carlos,

Now that's chilly! lol... Too bad the models are going to change 1000 times before this happens if it even does. However, it is exciting to look at laugh.gif
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Removed_Member_snowmaninbuffalo_*
post Oct 9 2008, 10:50 AM
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PS shouldnt this thread say Oct 21-23 Northeast Storm- 1st Chance Flurries... Not Oct 21 - 13
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Removed_Member_snowmaninbuffalo_*
post Oct 9 2008, 10:52 AM
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12z GFS threw that idea out the window...
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Phased Vort
post Oct 9 2008, 10:53 AM
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Woah!!!

The 12Z fantasy range GFS has a Perfect storm like system! Monster!


Links and merges a tropical system out of the Caribbean in to the trough and blows it up on the Mid Atlantic coast! Wow!


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Phased Vort
post Oct 9 2008, 10:54 AM
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QUOTE(WhitePlainsNYBlizzard @ Oct 9 2008, 12:53 PM) *
Woah!!!

The 12Z fantasy range GFS has a Perfect storm like system! Monster!
Links and merges a tropical system out of the Caribbean in to the trough and blows it up on the Mid Atlantic coast! Wow!




Attached Image


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Phased Vort
post Oct 9 2008, 10:58 AM
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QUOTE(WhitePlainsNYBlizzard @ Oct 9 2008, 12:54 PM) *

Attached Image


The trough is still there, but now the possible "winter" storm, became a hurricane merging into the trough.


Attached Image


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blizzardfan
post Oct 9 2008, 11:02 AM
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Hey guys...

Now, I know this is still too far out to predict, but if the GFS is showing heavy QPF over areas of where the cold air is currently predicted to be, wouldn't there be more than flurries...more on the order of Heavy Snow?


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post Oct 9 2008, 11:03 AM
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QUOTE(WhitePlainsNYBlizzard @ Oct 9 2008, 12:58 PM) *
The trough is still there, but now the possible "winter" storm, became a hurricane merging into the trough.


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Be looking at some very heavy rains if that were to occur thruout the region!

Temps at that time frame for 372..All duly noted as speculation..
Attached Image


This post has been edited by AtownWxWatcher: Oct 9 2008, 11:04 AM
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NYCSuburbs
post Oct 9 2008, 11:11 AM
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I can see the colder air in this time period, but I do not expect flurries to be seen less than 120 miles from the shore, except for the Catskills and the Appalachians. This will probably be a minor flurry event, if a storm happens then it would be needed here as the October precipitation so far is less than 1/2 inch and the 15-day forecast is dry. But I still see temperatures below freezing up to New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
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post Oct 9 2008, 11:13 AM
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I do not think it will be an extensive cold snap, and for that matter I am going against any snow possibilities for most of PA/NY/NJ. We may drop below normal in temperatures, but in the overall period we should be seeing typical early November weather.
What i learned so far from this weather pattern is that it is GRADUAL and is dominated by the PACIFIC JET out west. To prove this we look at the general extremes in temps and in severe weather---areas out west, and areas out south, and areas in the Atlantic Ocean, have been most prone to changes. Areas near the west coast have been most affected by the pacific jet. These areas in the US have all been source regions for our weather, either for High Pressures or rainfall. The problem again is that instead of the weather going straight into the northeast it always makes a stop at some other location. The best reason for this indirect approach into the northeast is for both stability and slow progression.
The active and unstable weather will go from one extreme to the other. For example, the weather pattern near the west coast will be hardest felt near the other extreme in the southern states. The extreme here is the area with high variations due to an active body of water. We in the northeast have the best feel for of all these different air masses out there, but again we are not the source region so the extreme is much less potent for us. The only direct feel that we can get is supposed to originate from the Atlantic Ocean. For this period, we in the interior northeast have as of recently managed to stay relatively equal in terms of variation. This pattern of progression has been with us since early September. My guess is that we will continue to see a slow and gradual downfall in temperatures because of the seasonal variation. The result should go from extensive cold core Highs moving from the North or warm core Highs moving from the south, to a relatively enhanced and deep zonal flow with the Pacific moisture dominating along it. The reason for the PAC dominance is that a zonal flow moves from west to east. The other thing i want to point out is that such movement of weather system suggests the 'let's start doing this now...to avoid stuffing everything in later' nature. The weather pattern is trying to stabilize to the changes in the seasons and it is starting right from the point (drawing a straight line) of one source region to the other.
Example: Pacific dominance turns the ridge out west to a trough...the SW Atlantic guy is like hey man i have a huge high pressure here , what should we do with this(?)...the weather pattern looks at that and says....well let's send both of the highs towards the south US and hopefully one of them gets to the northeast...they do that. So by the time the highs get together they produce a Low pressure and convection somewhere in the south...ok man we got another problem, we have this trough from the PAC...well just send it to the warm and muggy air we have down in the south...that should cool things off...THE END. It is all about stability.
Another thing, instead of just sending warm ATL air from the guys down south. The 'guys' down south will get together and send a tropical system and mild air towards the north. The PAC source will probably split between the growing cold air in New England to the warm air down near the Gulf...and stall...this could happen right when the real zonal pattern sets-up in the middle of the month (before any real cold comes in) ...this pattern will allow the waves from Africa to easily move into the source region near the south states...then the system will move north trying to get to the coldest air mass (probably near Canada) ...
thinking that we can get a big tropical storm but it will most likely affect Bermuda and then the polar bears in Canada.

Now tell me...if there is indication of growing cold air in the end of October, will the tropical threat increase or decrease for us? Increase...cold air building up north will indicate another source region building...its all about stability.

Conclusion:
-now: moving Lows and High from the source regions in the US (sources: Pacific coast region, up north source region or down south source region, and southeast region (into the deep ocean)) - north cold core Highs modify and fuse with the warm core highs down south...
-its all about stability and being gradual with these seasonal variations
-enhanced zonal in the middle of the month to the end of the month because of the 'gradual nature' of this pattern
-opposites and extremes attract --this weather pattern is playing it smart (straight line storm trajectories)
-if cold air builds up north, African wet period comes in, zonal flow (with all of the modified Highs) moves into the ATL--African storm can move across the ATL and be near the south states (east Caribbean source) then move towards the other source region building up north near the northeast ...
Is this perfect or what? Enhanced zonal flow in the middle of the month (tropical system forms out east) and then when the system gets here it will be met up with a zonal flow that is breaking down (trough building up north or east US) ...and so when the system gets to the warms waters in the Caribbean it will move to the next source that is up north. (the extreme and opposite source pattern, the cold air building in the northeast will mark a possible source)
-October 21st to 30 -tropical threat and temps near or below avg with zonal flow breaking down...colder air building up north...may spark a trough to develop and change flow once a tropical threat moves in...temps remaining on avg or just below for November
I think that when December rolls around we will have enough cold air up north to move down and give us some snow...once the pacific jet gets enough moisture together...again relatively zonal, and pacific dominates is my theory. (short outbursts of cold air up north will be possible, with ATL influence once in a while)
WINTER FORECAST:
i think this winter will be relatively on avg or mild with possible nor'easters, most precip days coming from the west than the south ...i think that there is a good chance for some minor or one major snowfall for mid Dec/Jan if a good trough digs down into the northeast.
-Mild and above normal snowfall/precip for the northeast during this winter.


I just put all of my thoughts together, and i am not sure if any of it will makes sense to you.
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SnowMan11
post Oct 9 2008, 11:26 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMatrix @ Oct 9 2008, 10:23 AM) *
I'm posting this not because I really think it's going to happen, but because...

1. This is the first GFS prediction of a snowstorm in the Northeast this fall laugh.gif
2. I think this points to the overall pattern near the end of October which JB has mentioned:


-- from my blog yesterday


Still rain for NYC.
sad.gif


QUOTE(snowmaninbuffalo @ Oct 9 2008, 12:52 PM) *
12z GFS threw that idea out the window...


Typical GFS.
blink.gif


QUOTE(WhitePlainsNYBlizzard @ Oct 9 2008, 12:53 PM) *
Woah!!!

The 12Z fantasy range GFS has a Perfect storm like system! Monster!
Links and merges a tropical system out of the Caribbean in to the trough and blows it up on the Mid Atlantic coast! Wow!


That is insane if it happens.


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SyracuseSnow
post Oct 9 2008, 01:49 PM
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I know this perfect storm is a long way out but I can't wait for the 18z GFS to come out.


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Phased Vort
post Oct 9 2008, 02:03 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Oct 9 2008, 01:11 PM) *
I can see the colder air in this time period, but I do not expect flurries to be seen less than 120 miles from the shore, except for the Catskills and the Appalachians. This will probably be a minor flurry event, if a storm happens then it would be needed here as the October precipitation so far is less than 1/2 inch and the 15-day forecast is dry. But I still see temperatures below freezing up to New Jersey and Pennsylvania.



That's if we do not end up with a hurricane of some kind on the East coast.

The 12Z literally forms a tropical system in the Caribbean and then moves it north and merges it with that trough moving into the east coast with a good deal cold air inside the trough.

If for some crazy reason, this were to happen, people inland could be getting snow or at least a very cold rain in the 40's from a hurricane or tropical storm while the people on the coast would be flooded with tropical muggy air from the Caribbean and Bahamas with heavy heavy rain from the same tropical system.

What is scary is that the clash of the cold air coming in with the trough and all the warm muggy air coming with the tropical system when colliding and merging with the trough would cause some serious explosion into a deep subtropical and eventually extra-tropical system. And if that merge were to occur just a bit more off the coast, the coastal areas could be dealing with insane storm.

BUT remember, as the thread title says, this is all COGITATION. It's the long long range...

Here's the 12Z GFS long range animation:




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post Oct 9 2008, 02:14 PM
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I will say this...........GFS Fantasy Land

We have all seen this before. It's too far out to be predicting anything. The GFS is starting already to tease us with these types of storms. Once we get closer to the event and the other models "hopefully" pick up on this, we will have a better idea. It's fun to break the fantasy storms down, but we will see massive shifts in runs and insane flip floping.

We all know winter is quite close.......... laugh.gif
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