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kpk33x
Rank: F5 Superstorm
41 years old
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Intervale, NH
Born Feb-13-1975
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kpk33x

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5 May 2016
How about some love for Autumn? The summer discussion is active and folks are posting in the winter 2016-17 forum. Let's not forget about September-November!

The last time we transitioned quickly from a strong Nino to a Nina was in the fall of 1998. Living in Maryland at the time, a relatively normal (within a degree or so) summer 1998 was followed by a warm September, a mild October, and a normal November (before a warm December). Calendar 1998 was one of three years with every month's average 40F or above at BWI...the other years being 1949 and 1932.

The outstanding detail of the fall of 1998 was the developing dryness. The first several months of 1998 were a bit on the wet side. Precip started to tail off in July, and the fall months were very dry. Only 3.46" of rain fell from 9/1 to 11/30, the driest fall since 1930 which was the driest year on record when only half the normal rainfall was recorded for the year. Drought was developing, with only January 1999 above normal all the way until September, when Hurricane Floyd and a few other systems ended the drought.

Prior to that, in September 1983 coming off another strong Nino, it was the 4th consecutive month of dryness, but October and November were wet enough to bring autumn precip to normal, while temperatures were maybe a degree above normal for all three months (a warm start in September with some 90s was evened out by a cool spell the last 4-5 days).

In New Hampshire, Fall 1998's temps were similar to the experience at BWI. North Conway temps were a degree or so above normal in September and October while normal in November. But precip was well above normal in October, and although there were a couple very dry months mixed in, both 1998 and 1999 annual precip were above normal.
In NH in 1983, a warm September was followed by a normal Oct-Nov. For precip it started dry but October was a little closer to normal, and November was a soaker. Snow did fall in both November 1983 and 1998, but a bit below the average (November snowfall is usually hit or miss here).

Will the autumn of 2016 be different this year than 2015? Last year, hints of leaf change started to show in August but were put on hold by a very warm September. In fact, leaves peaked about a week later (around Oct. 10) than they did in 2014. October was near normal overall with a mid month cold snap (and half inch of snow) evened out by a couple warm periods, while November was again warm.

Not having central AC and not being a fan of hot weather to begin with, I will be looking forward to the Fall!
26 Dec 2014
OK starting a thread for the first time because its very slow and everyone else is still sleeping off the holiday, I guess...maybe I will have better luck.

Several models have been showing this storm for most runs since late on the 24th. This is a separate entity than the Dec 31-Jan 2 thread which several models now show going offshore to the south in the Virginia Beach area....or not really organizing anything at all.

The 6z 12/26 GFS is on the faster side, with wintry precip breaking out along the Mason-Dixon and in WV ahead of a low centered over SW Kentucky early on 1/3, before kicking out a low off the Jersey shore 12 hours later (snow changes to rain for most of everyone east of I-81 and south of I-84), then heading NE to give New England a light/moderate snow event and a mix for NYC.

Here is Hour 204 GFS:
Attached File  GFS_Hour_204.png ( 142.7K ) Number of downloads: 311


What does the 6z PGFS do? It takes this storm to the lakes, moving the low on a track from central Missouri to Detroit and then skirting the Canadian border in New England. This means iniital light snow or frozen precip for anyone north of Baltimore/west of I-95 which then goes over to rain within 12 hours. No need to post an image; we just lived this a few days ago.

CMC is painting the most interesting picture right now. First of all, its slower in developing and second, features a retreating 1040 MB high over New England setting up a CAD situation. At 6z on 1/4, heavy snow is breaking out west of 95 and in MD in PA out ahead of a low in Kentucky. 6 hours later it looks like it is transferring to a low south of NYC, which means a frozen mess for west of I-95 to I-81 and snow up into southern New England away from the coast and up my way. Check out this fun map:

Hour 228 CMC:
Attached File  CMC_Hour_228.png ( 151.37K ) Number of downloads: 267


The storm then chugs to the Maine coast giving New England a nice snow dump away from the coast. Smiles abound for snow lovers from DC to New England west of I-95:
Attached File  CMC_Total_Snow.png ( 132.38K ) Number of downloads: 308


Euro? I don't have premium access but 0z looks similar to PGFS just a tad slower, sending a low from the Oklahoma Panhandle at midnight on 1/3 to north of Detroit 24 hours later and surely giving yet another soaker to the entire east coast, even the mountains of New England. The Euro depicts the New Year's shot of cold air being very transient and not really reloading to the west while setting up quite a SE ridge.

So let's kick off the roller coaster from torch to no storm to slider to BECS! laugh.gif
31 May 2013
I bought a new weatherstation (La Crosse Technology WS-2812U-IT) and had not taken the old thermometer down. The new sensor is attached to a fencepost 6' high in the back of my yard just under the first branches of a bank of pine trees. Its the only place that never gets sun. The old one was attached to the fencepost next to my house also 6' up near no vents or windows and got sun between late morning and just after noon. Its about 150' from the other one and both locations are on a gradual slope with neither being at the peak or hollow. Right away I noticed the following differences, not counting when the sun hit the old thermometer or that side of the house:

Sunny days - old thermometer was 2-5 degrees higher than new one
Cloudy/rainy days - old thermometer was never more than 2 degrees higher than new one, usually within 1 degree
Clear nights with wind - never more than a degree apart
Clear nights without wind - old thermometer 2-4 degrees higher
Cloudy/rainy nights - never more than a degree apart

I tested this by clipping the new thermometer right next to the old one and for four days the temps moved in lockstep, never differing by more than 0.2 degrees at any time, including daily max and min.

I am wondering if heat radiating from the house has anything to do with the differences, especially given the differences decreased in windy/rainy/cloudy weather. I also tested the old one in shade within 20 feet of the asphalt driveway and the sunny day difference was 4-9 degrees and the clear calm night difference was only 1-2. Makes you wonder just how accurate those airport thermometers next to paved runways, vents and small outbuildings are.
12 Dec 2007
I posted this is a reply to Kyle's topic, figured I may as well make it its own topic too.
As it seems almost a certainty according to what I've heard that something will be coming this weekend, I extend a challenge to pros and amateurs alike to take a guess on how much snow falls in my backyard. I am in Timonium, MD which is just north of the intersection of I-695 and I-83, north of Baltimore.
This area is notoriously difficult to forecast. Just last week, the local guys were giving anywhere to a dusting to an inch or two, Meteo-Madness Man Henry Margosuti stuck to a higher amount all along and nailed it. That was a clipper, they've done much worse with coastal events (see Jan. 25, 2000 for example!)
Rules:
1. I will take the "official" measurements.
2. Measurements include any sleet/ice accumulation and will reflect a TOTAL amount.
3. If snow falls then rain melts it down the number I give will be the total amount that falls, not what lays on the ground at the end.
4. You can guess and revise as many times as you want until 12:01 AM Saturday morning. You get a Barry Bonds asterisk if your final guess comes in after that but before the storm begins.
5. I will post results at the conclusion of the storm.
Good luck!
8 Feb 2007
OK, I'm not a meteorologist but I can add and can tell when numbers don't "look right". I was looking at the NWS temperature records for BWI airport and saw the normals given for 1971-2000 and thought that they looked too low. I took the normals stated for 1971-2000 period ("normals" below) versus what each value for 1971-2000 given was summed and divided by 30 ("calculated" below):

January - Normals: 32.3 Calculated: 33.2 Difference: +0.9
April - Normals: 53.2 Calculated: 53.9 Difference: +0.7
July - Normals: 76.5 Calculated: 77.4 Difference: +0.9
October - Normals: 55.4 Calculated: 56.7 Difference: +1.3

I did not add each day of each month or take the decimal further out than the tenths' place (which was the data provided), but I doubt that would cause more than a few hundreths of a degree of difference, and would likely even out over a 30 year period. I am assuming the other 8 months have similar results, but didn't want to bother trying if someone in the know has an easy answer...
Why do these differ by a degree? And why are the normals provided always lower than what I calculated? Are these adjusted somehow when figuring out the 30-year norms?
You can add for yourself with the BWI-Marshall data
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/bwi/bwitemps.txt
Maybe someone can let me know if they get the same results from their own local station's data?

(or is this a global warming conspiracy in purposefully understating "normal" temperatures by a full degree? haha!)
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