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phillyfan
Rank: F5 Superstorm
26 years old
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Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Born Dec-21-1989
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phillyfan

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20 Jul 2016
Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NY AND
PA TO NORTHERN OH/INDIANA/IL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WESTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO DAMPEN SOME ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WELL-FORECAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND PERHAPS
REACHING ND/SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z SATURDAY. WHILE AN ELONGATED
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM CA TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THIS REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MT FRIDAY
WITH THIS LOW MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT. EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW VARIES AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...GIVEN
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.

...NORTHEAST STATES...
NY INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING IN
THAT PART OF THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
DESTABILIZATION THIS FORECAST PERIOD...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AREAS OF CLOUDINESS FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE EML
AND SOME SURFACE HEATING...MUCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE COLD FRONT SUGGEST ORGANIZED STORMS
WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS DEEP-LAYER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

...SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH WESTWARD EXTENT FROM NY/PA TO NORTHERN
IL. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR WEAKENS WITH WESTWARD EXTENT SUGGESTING
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
17 Jul 2016
Figured I'd start a thread for tomorrow:
Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
DELMARVA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.

...OH VALLEY/NERN US...

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE TRANSLATING INTO THE SERN PROVINCES
OF CANADA. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY 18Z FROM ERN OH INTO UPSTATE NY. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AMPLE BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING FOR ROBUST
UPDRAFTS WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE EXPANDED 15 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS
DEVELOPING BY MID DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. WITH DEEP-LAYER
FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION...CONVECTION SHOULD
PROPAGATE STEADILY TOWARD THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR STRONG
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS IND/IL INTO SRN IA. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY
CLEAR WHETHER A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AID TSTM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THIS REGION BUT STRONG HEATING AND SUBSTANTIAL QPF IN LATEST
GUIDANCE FAVOR EXPANDING MRGL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY.
1 Jul 2016
Figured I'd open another thread for this upcoming Tuesday MCS.

18z NAM - That's as far north as it gets on that run


12z NAM - Was a little more south then 18z was


18z GFS - Only has this


HPC has bumped the precip a bit more north:
Attached Image
30 Jun 2016
I'll go out on a lime here and start this thread for tomorrow.
Attached Image



HWO for eastern PA:
QUOTE
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY DAMAGING WIND, TORRENTIAL RAIN CAUSING BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING, AND HAIL. THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IS 4 PM TO 10 PM.


I didn't think much of this a few days ago until now.
Point and click gives me hope.
QUOTE
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.


Weather Channel just has the words Strong Storms from 3pm to 6pm. Not very often do you see that on there forecast hour by hour.
9 Oct 2015
Since there's no thread for today, here we go. Warnings up for Harrisburg, Lebanon and up into Schuylkill county.



QUOTE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1847
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN/SOUTHERN PA TO NJ/CT/FAR SOUTHERN NY AND
NORTHERN MD/DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091911Z - 092115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO
MAY BE INCREASING CONCERNS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PA TO NJ/SOUTHERN NY.
DEVELOPMENTAL/ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED
FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE AND CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE AT
20Z.

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SIGNS OF
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AS OF 230 PM
EDT/1830Z. WHILE BROKEN CLOUD COVER PRECEDES THE COLD
FRONT...MODERATE HEATING AND A GRADUALLY MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER
/LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS/ HAVE RESULTED IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH
INCREASINGLY WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG
MLCAPE. THE TREND OF GRADUAL UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MODERATELY STRONG/LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT YIELDING AS MUCH AS
35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR
SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS AND POSSIBLY A SPLITTING SUPERCELL
OR TWO. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..GUYER/HART.. 10/09/2015


QUOTE
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015

PAC043-075-097-107-091945-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-151009T1945Z/
LEBANON PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-DAUPHIN PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-
310 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR LEBANON...SCHUYLKILL...DAUPHIN AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTHUMBERLAND
COUNTIES...

AT 309 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WILBURTON NUMBER ONE TO LINGLESTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PALMYRA...POTTSVILLE...MYERSTOWN...LEBANON...CORNW
LL...ST. CLAIR...
FRACKVILLE...SCHUYLKILL HAVEN...ANNVILLE...LINGLESTOWN...MAHANOY
CITY...MOUNT CARMEL...MIDDLETOWN...HUMMELSTOWN...SHENANDOAH...
TAMAQUA...MINERSVILLE...HERSHEY...COLONIAL PARK AND SHAMOKIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THESE STORMS.
ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...
ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
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bubbles
Howdy!
28 Nov 2008 - 11:37
Eaglesfan412
Go Birds!
11 Feb 2008 - 23:04

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