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phillyfan
Rank: F5 Superstorm
26 years old
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Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
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phillyfan

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9 Oct 2015
Since there's no thread for today, here we go. Warnings up for Harrisburg, Lebanon and up into Schuylkill county.



QUOTE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1847
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN/SOUTHERN PA TO NJ/CT/FAR SOUTHERN NY AND
NORTHERN MD/DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091911Z - 092115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO
MAY BE INCREASING CONCERNS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PA TO NJ/SOUTHERN NY.
DEVELOPMENTAL/ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED
FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE AND CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE AT
20Z.

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SIGNS OF
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AS OF 230 PM
EDT/1830Z. WHILE BROKEN CLOUD COVER PRECEDES THE COLD
FRONT...MODERATE HEATING AND A GRADUALLY MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER
/LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS/ HAVE RESULTED IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH
INCREASINGLY WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG
MLCAPE. THE TREND OF GRADUAL UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MODERATELY STRONG/LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT YIELDING AS MUCH AS
35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR
SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS AND POSSIBLY A SPLITTING SUPERCELL
OR TWO. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..GUYER/HART.. 10/09/2015


QUOTE
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015

PAC043-075-097-107-091945-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-151009T1945Z/
LEBANON PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-DAUPHIN PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-
310 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR LEBANON...SCHUYLKILL...DAUPHIN AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTHUMBERLAND
COUNTIES...

AT 309 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WILBURTON NUMBER ONE TO LINGLESTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PALMYRA...POTTSVILLE...MYERSTOWN...LEBANON...CORNW
LL...ST. CLAIR...
FRACKVILLE...SCHUYLKILL HAVEN...ANNVILLE...LINGLESTOWN...MAHANOY
CITY...MOUNT CARMEL...MIDDLETOWN...HUMMELSTOWN...SHENANDOAH...
TAMAQUA...MINERSVILLE...HERSHEY...COLONIAL PARK AND SHAMOKIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THESE STORMS.
ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...
ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
6 Jul 2015
Since there's no thread for today, so here we go.

HWO:
QUOTE
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THAT PRODUCES DAMAGING WIND,
ESPECIALLY ON THE DELMARVA.


QUOTE
Today
Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 80. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 10pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 10pm and midnight, then a chance of showers after midnight. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Patchy fog after midnight. Low around 71. Southeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
8 Feb 2015
Well time for another thread for late this week, here's the last 4 snow maps off the last 4 GFS runs. Another New England storm or can we get a south trend this time.

0z
Attached Image


18z
Attached Image


12z
Attached Image


6z
Attached Image
2 Feb 2015
Time to start up another thread for the next storm threat. No Whammies laugh.gif
19 Aug 2014
Looks like we have an area to watch for development now. GFS takes this into the Gulf next week.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

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Comments
bubbles
Howdy!
28 Nov 2008 - 11:37
Eaglesfan412
Go Birds!
11 Feb 2008 - 23:04

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