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phillyfan
Rank: F5 Superstorm
28 years old
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Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Born Dec-21-1989
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phillyfan

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30 Mar 2018
I'll bite the bullet and open this thread up:

12z GFS:


12z CMC:
5 Sep 2017
What no thread for the severe weather chance today. It's not like there's a hurricane brewing or something...... rolleyes.gif
Attached thumbnail(s)
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18 Aug 2017
What no thread for today...

QUOTE
Flash Flood Watch up for this afternoon:

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
339 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019-
PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106-181545-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0007.170818T1800Z-170819T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.
O/
New Castle-Kent-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex-
Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Elkton, Chestertown,
Centreville, Easton, Denton, Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Trenton,
Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown,
Mount Holly, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Media, Philadelphia,
Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville,
Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
339 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southwestern, central and
northwestern New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, central and
southern Delaware and northeastern Maryland.

* From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening

* Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms can be expected
through tonight. While flash flooding is not anticipated with
the initial round this morning, locally higher rainfall amounts
of 1 to 2 inches are possible, and will help saturate the ground
for the next round of storms. Torrential downpours with storms
that develop this afternoon and evening could produce rainfall
rates greater than 2 inches per hour. While the entire area will
not receive heavy rain, isolated rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches are possible where storms track over the same locations.

* Torrential rain falling in a short period of time will result in
rapidly rising water levels along streams and creeks and in
areas of poor drainage. Significant roadway flooding is possible
in isolated areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Basement flooding is possible due to heavy rain falling on soils
already saturated from previous storms. If your home has a history
of basement flooding, monitor your sump pump for proper operation
and if possible, direct outside water flow away from your house
11 Aug 2017
Not much of a risk but, still could be some heavy rainers today:

Attached Image
25 Jul 2017
Time to open a thread for the Thursday - Friday period.
SPC:
Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY EAST THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S....

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe storms are forecast to spread across the
central Appalachians and mid Atlantic region and vicinity Thursday
afternoon and evening. Isolated severe risk may also evolve across
the northern Intermountain region Thursday afternoon/evening.

...Synopsis...
Larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to expand across the
eastern U.S. this period, as a short-wave trough digs southeast
across the Great Lakes area into the mid and upper Ohio Valley
through the period. Meanwhile to the west, ridging will prevail,
though a short-wave trough moving eastward out of the Pacific
Northwest will suppress ridging to some degree as it moves through
the northern Intermountain region.

At the surface, a cold front will shift southeast across eastern and
southern portions of the country through the period, while high
pressure prevails across the central and northern portions of the
country.

...Mid and upper Ohio Valley east to the mid Atlantic coast...
Widespread precipitation is forecast to be ongoing across western
and northern portions of the risk area, which -- along with clouds
streaming east ahead of the convection -- should hinder diurnal
destabilization across a large portion of the risk area. Still,
with a belt of strong flow aloft expected to spread east across the
region in conjunction with a lead short-wave trough ahead of the
main system crossing the Great Lakes, any storms which can
form/organize would likely evolve into fast-moving bands, posing a
damaging wind risk. Therefore, while uncertainty remains relatively
high, will introduce slight risk across a broad zone from the mid
and upper Ohio Valley east the mid Atlantic area to cover this
potential risk -- which could extend through the evening and into
the overnight hours.

Lesser risk -- due to weaker shear -- is expected along the trailing
cold front as it shifts southeast across the mid South region during
the day, aided by greater CAPE. Local severe risk may linger
through the evening, spreading south into the Southeast states
before weakening overnight.

...Northern Intermountain region...
As the weakening upper short-wave trough shifts east-northeast
across the area, modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterlies along
with ample large-scale ascent will favor afternoon thunderstorm
development, as modest CAPE develops through peak diurnal heating.
Though modest instability in most areas should limit hail potential,
damaging wind gusts -- aided by sub-cloud evaporation -- may occur
locally with stronger storms through the evening.

..Goss.. 07/25/2017


Also this HWO from Mount Holly:

QUOTE
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a potential for heavy rainfall Thursday night into Friday.
Areas that were impacted by heavy rainfall earlier this week will be
particularly susceptible to another round of flooding. Additionally,
a few thunderstorms may become severe.
Last Visitors


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11 Sep 2017 - 17:13


9 Sep 2017 - 23:46

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bubbles
Howdy!
28 Nov 2008 - 11:37
Eaglesfan412
Go Birds!
11 Feb 2008 - 23:04

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