Feb 20-21st LES Event Southern Ontario

Here's my map on the LES event beginning tonight. We will see W winds become NW and NNW by Wednesday. They will stay NW/NNW right into Thursday. I am expecting some moderate to strong bands at times especially Wed late morning into Wed night. EC already has snowsquall watches in place as of 7am this morning for areas SE of Huron and GB. I can see the highest amounts of up to 40cm depending on where the bands set up.

For several hours, the GB band will be strong enough to stretch into the GTA (Vaughan, Richmond Hill) including parts of northern and eastern Toronto. Some flurries will make their way right downtown. More info later.

Here's my map:

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Lake Effect Feb 24th-25th

Here's the updated lake effect map:

If you live within the blue dotted area expect up to 2cm in flurries. Areas within the red zone can expect to see an additional 10cm of LES in addition to system snow. If you live in the purple area expect 15 to 25cm, locally 40cm. Winds will be NNW but shifting at times to NW, bands will move around a bit as a result.

LAKE HURON:

Goderich: 20-30cm (locally 40cm)
Kincardine: 5-10cm
Exeter: 25-35cm (locally 40cm)
Grand Bend: 10-20cm
London: 20-30cm (locally 40cm)
Lucan: 25-35cm (locally 40cm)
St. Thomas: 4-6cm
Stratford: 8-15cm


GEORGIAN BAY:

Meaford: 10-20cm
Collingwood: 20-30cm (locally 40cm)
Wasaga Beach: 25-35cm (locally 45cm)
Midland: 5-10cm
Barrie: 30-40cm (locally 45cm)
Angus/Borden: 15-20cm (locally 25cm)
Alliston: 8-15cm
Tottenham: 4-8cm

 lakeeffectmap.jpg ( 253.25K ) Number of downloads: 3

Southern Ontario Snowstorm April 6th-8th?

I have been watching this low for the past 3-4 days on the GFS. Most runs do show snow for South/Central Ontario on the backside. It looks as if enough cold air could help create a rain to snow event. If the low stalls out as suggested by the GFS we have a historic snowstorm here. Chances of all this coming together are about 1/10. We need the exact amount of cold air to mix with the warm air from the south to make sure the low does not swing further west and bring rain or further east and weaken.The 12pm GFS model from today showed one of the biggest April blizzards in history if it were to come true. How much? Upwards of 40cm are shown especially just north and northwest of Toronto. Now this is obviously exaggerated however snow in April has occurred before. Keep an eye out on this potential storm! In the meantime, lets feast our eyes on the 48 hour precip amounts from April 6th-8th....and yes this would be 90% snow for most regions with exceptions of E. Ontario which would remain too warm.

Btw...this is NOT an April Fools Joke. Check out the model for yourselves!

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WINTER OF 2008/2009 RECAP

Overall the winter of 2008/2009 was less snowy then the winter before however above normal when comparing to historical snowfall averages. November through January had higher then average snowfall amounts while February and March had significantly lower snowfall. March was and will continue to be warmer and drier then normal. Here are my official snowfall records for the season for my house which is located on the Simcoe/Dufferin County border, approximately 15 minutes WNW of Alliston, ON.

Snowfall For 2008/2009 Winter Season:
Measured at 996797 Mulmur/Tosorontio Townline
Official Snowfall Records
Elevation: 1000ft

October:

Tuesday Oct 21st: 2cm (first snow of the season)
Tuesday Oct 28th: 3cm
Wednesday Oct 29th: 2cm

Total Snowfall: 7cm

November:

Monday Nov 10th: 2cm
Saturday Nov 15th: 12cm
Sunday Nov 16th: 1cm
Monday Nov 17th: 5cm
Tuesday Nov 18th: 8cm
Wednesday Nov 19th: 4cm
Thursday Nov 20th: 1cm
Friday Nov 21st: 4cm
Monday Nov 24th: 5cm
Tuesday Nov 25th: 2cm
Sunday Nov 30th: 15cm

Total Snowfall: 59cm

December

Thursday Dec 4th: 1cm
Saturday Dec 6th: 2cm
Sunday Dec 7th: 4cm
Tuesday Dec 9th: 15cm
Friday Dec 12th: 1cm
Tuesday Dec 16th: 8cm
Friday Dec 19th: 25cm
Sunday Dec 21st: 10cm
Tuesday Dec 23rd: 10cm
Wednesday Dec 24th: 2cm
Friday Dec 26th: 1cm
Monday Dec 29th: 5cm
Tuesday Dec 30th: 4cm
Wednesday Dec 31st: 8cm

Total Snowfall: 96cm

January

Friday Jan 2nd: 7cm
Wednesday Jan 7th: 14cm
Thursday Jan 8th: 3cm
Tuesday Jan 13th: 2cm
Wednesday Jan 14th: 1cm
Saturday Jan 17th: 13cm
Friday Jan 23rd: 4cm
Sunday Jan 25th: 2cm
Wednesday Jan 28th: 11cm
Thursday Jan 29th: 1cm
Friday Jan 30th: 1cm
Saturday Jan 31st: 2cm

Total Snowfall: 61cm

February

Tuesday Feb 3rd: 2cm
Friday Feb 13th: 1cm
Wednesday Feb 18th: 6cm
Thursday Feb 19th: 1cm
Saturday Feb 21st: 8cm
Sunday Feb 22nd: 10cm

Total Snowfall: 28cm


March

Sunday March 8th: 2cm

Total Snowfall: 2cm


April

Monday April 6th: 19cm
Tuesday April 7th: 1cm

Total Snowfall: 20cm

TOTAL ANNUAL SNOWFALL: 271cm
Average Snowfall: 175cm
Largest Snowfall Of Season: Dec 19th- 25cm


**TOTAL ANNUAL SNOWFALL FOR 2007/2008 SEASON: 336cm

Major Storm For Ontario Near Months End?

I have been consistently watching for a large winter storm for the end of January. Models have very reliably shown a large low pressure system slamming into Southern Ontario near the end of the month. In fact, the GFS has been showing this storm for 4-5 days now as has the EURO. This storm will bring in ample warm air but the question is whether or not the cold air can hold its ground enough to allow a huge snowstorm for Southern Ontario. Let this thread be used to monitoring this storm as well as posting recent model runs and discussing its potential. I believe this storm could be very large. I have attached here the recent 12pm model runs from the GFS. It basically shows rain for SW Ontario, a mix for the GTA with snow to the north. Now this is only one run, although other previous runs have shown some similar findings. Regardless, it is certainly something to watch for. This storm will start a domino pattern of storms through February as a "La Nina" pattern kicks in, similar to the one in late November and December.

Here is the recent GFS's interpretation of the storm:

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 gfs_ten_216m.gif ( 80.54K ) Number of downloads: 14