travis3000 doesn't have a personal statement currently.
Rank: F5 Superstorm
27 years old
Joined: 21-January 08
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Local Time: Jan 21 2017, 01:19 AM
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16 Jan 2017
I'm creating a thread on this storm, as all the models are showing something for next week. Looks to move into SW Ontario on the 23rd and make its way east, the effects continuing to be felt into the 25th and 26th out east.
Models have been dancing around with tracks, and precipitation types.
Here's the 12z CMC model:
Jan 23rd morning
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27.png ( 158.64K ) Number of downloads: 1
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_30.png ( 172.67K ) Number of downloads: 0
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31.png ( 180.73K ) Number of downloads: 0
Heavy snow in Eastern Ontario by this point moving into Southern QB.
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_35.png ( 181.08K ) Number of downloads: 0
Here's the 18z GFS run from tonight
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_28.png ( 162.56K ) Number of downloads: 0
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_30.png ( 181.72K ) Number of downloads: 0
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_32.png ( 175.58K ) Number of downloads: 0
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_34.png ( 170.45K ) Number of downloads: 0
As you can see this run of the GFS isn't as bullish for big snowfall out east, but potential remains.
Mostly rain for Southern Ontario at this point but potential is there for some mixtures especially over higher terrain.
28 Dec 2016
I am creating this thread to highlight the potential for heavy lake effect squalls, expected to develop Thursday evening and continue into early Saturday. Right now I am looking at a primarily NW event.
Here's my map
LES_Dec_29_30th.png ( 359.19K ) Number of downloads: 0
Right now it looks like the squalls will begin tomorrow early evening and strengthen overnight tomorrow. The bands will move around through Friday as winds will be oscillating but overall a primary NW flow, at times WNW off Huron and NNW off GB. However NW will be the primary direction.
This will take the heaviest Huron activity north of London in my opinion. I like the Kincardine down to Goderich corridor and in-land from there. Listowel down to Stratford will be dealing with squalls oscillating in and out of the area with areas closer to the lake getting hit hard (Wingham down through Mitchell and Exeter) where I feel 30-40cm is possible. London is a close call, the northeastern part of the city stands a better chance but from what I'm seeing the highest accumulations occur well north of the city. The actual city should not see anything significant.
Off Georgian Bay the highest accumulations will be felt from the Wasaga Beach to Barrie corridor and to the SW of that in areas like Angus, CFB Borden, New Lowell, Essa Township, Baxter, Cookstown/Innisfil, etc. Up to 40cm is possible in this region. Alliston will again be too SW for the heaviest accumulations, but stands a possibility of receiving 6-15cm if the squall can stall over this area. I think you'll see it cream areas just to the north and east, at times affecting the town. The east side of the town will likely fare better.
16 Nov 2014
We are entering our second big LES event. I know many areas received heavy snowfall Thursday and Friday of last week, with a swath covering Parry Sound south to Barrie picked up 10-30cm of snow. I apologize I couldn't give any insight on that, as my computer was in getting repaired and it's very hard to give any updates on my phone. More snow is on the way. This thread is for discussion on the LES event beginning Tuesday and continuing into Saturday.
The winds will be changing frequently. The three primary directions will be WNW, W, and WSW. It will also be at times SW and NW. Due the changing directions, I am not expecting any epic accumulations, but I am picking up clues that some of these bands will be VERY heavy, at times delivering up to 10cm an hour to certain locations.
I will be updating this thread frequently this coming week with more details. As for the GTA, I am seeing a band coming off Lake Huron (a unique WNW flow) that could affect the area delivering a dusting to 5-6cm across many areas. There is potential for this band to even give higher amounts should it lock in for a few hours. I will be monitoring this.
Here's a preliminary map I just did up now indicating some accumulations this week. I do think that by Saturday most of Southern Ontario will be white as these bands will be moving around quite a bit.
Squall_Event_Nov_17th_20th.jpg ( 238.96K ) Number of downloads: 10
Here's a map showing the main bands. Now they of course will not be this wide, however I wanted to show a visual of what will be happening. The areas in the #1 #2 and #3 zone will be seeing the highest chance of seeing accumulating snows as long bands develop, and will oscillate like a windshield wiper across a wide area. Band #3 will move even further south impacting the Kitchener area as well from time to time. So while it's possible one area may only get a few hours of squall activity, accumulations may be 3-5cm PER hour inland at times and even more closer to the lake. So it's extremely hard to pinpoint exact accumulations.
Main_Bands_Squall_Event_Nov_2014.jpg ( 189.96K ) Number of downloads: 8
5 Jan 2014
As everybody knows, behind the storm system today and tonight, a powerful WNW flow will form with sustained winds in the 40-50KM/H range and gusts up to 80KM/H. Not only will this put wind chill values in the minus 30's, it will create a heavy amount of LES beginning Monday across Southern Ontario.
These bands of snow will at times travel over 150 to 200KM inland, giving places that are not used of squalls some decent accumulations.
Okay so here's how it goes. Winds will be WNW Monday and very strong. Gusts in the 70-85KM/H range creating blowing snow and blizzard conditions especially in areas that saw the fresh snow fall this weekend. Winds remain WNW into Mon night. By Tuesday, we will see a WNW occasionally shifting into a W flow which will continue right into Wednesday afternoon before a High Pressure from the west moves in and chokes off the squalls.
Because of the long duration of this event, accumulations in the 40-70cm range are very possible with many areas inland receiving 5-15cm Monday and Monday night. This explains why EC has issued Snowsquall watches to many in-land areas. The high wind speed and tight flow will allow multiple bands to form off Huron and GB and extend hundreds of KM inland. So here's how it looks. Remember this DOES NOT include any storm accumulations. That is additional on top of this map.
Squall_Map_Jan_6th_2014.jpg ( 237.49K ) Number of downloads: 10
Kincardine/Sauble Beach: 50-80cm+
Owen Sound: 40-60cm+
Parry Sound: 20-30cm
Barrie: 15-25cm (higher as you go north towards Midhurst, Horseshoe Valley)
19 Feb 2013
Here's my map on the LES event beginning tonight. We will see W winds become NW and NNW by Wednesday. They will stay NW/NNW right into Thursday. I am expecting some moderate to strong bands at times especially Wed late morning into Wed night. EC already has snowsquall watches in place as of 7am this morning for areas SE of Huron and GB. I can see the highest amounts of up to 40cm depending on where the bands set up.
For several hours, the GB band will be strong enough to stretch into the GTA (Vaughan, Richmond Hill) including parts of northern and eastern Toronto. Some flurries will make their way right downtown. More info later.
Here's my map:
squall_map.jpg ( 229.31K ) Number of downloads: 10
28 Dec 2016 - 11:35
8 Dec 2016 - 21:39
1 Nov 2016 - 20:52
17 May 2016 - 7:21
13 Apr 2016 - 16:40
Happy Birthday Travis... you need to start updating your blog though
29 Jul 2010 - 23:02
hey travis i posted some pics in the febuary pattern disco for you. have a good day.
28 Jan 2009 - 12:16
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