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travis3000
Rank: F5 Superstorm
25 years old
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Alliston,Ontario
Born July-30-1989
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travis3000

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16 Nov 2014
Ok guys,

We are entering our second big LES event. I know many areas received heavy snowfall Thursday and Friday of last week, with a swath covering Parry Sound south to Barrie picked up 10-30cm of snow. I apologize I couldn't give any insight on that, as my computer was in getting repaired and it's very hard to give any updates on my phone. More snow is on the way. This thread is for discussion on the LES event beginning Tuesday and continuing into Saturday.

The winds will be changing frequently. The three primary directions will be WNW, W, and WSW. It will also be at times SW and NW. Due the changing directions, I am not expecting any epic accumulations, but I am picking up clues that some of these bands will be VERY heavy, at times delivering up to 10cm an hour to certain locations.

I will be updating this thread frequently this coming week with more details. As for the GTA, I am seeing a band coming off Lake Huron (a unique WNW flow) that could affect the area delivering a dusting to 5-6cm across many areas. There is potential for this band to even give higher amounts should it lock in for a few hours. I will be monitoring this.

Here's a preliminary map I just did up now indicating some accumulations this week. I do think that by Saturday most of Southern Ontario will be white as these bands will be moving around quite a bit.

Attached File  Squall_Event_Nov_17th_20th.jpg ( 238.96K ) Number of downloads: 9


Here's a map showing the main bands. Now they of course will not be this wide, however I wanted to show a visual of what will be happening. The areas in the #1 #2 and #3 zone will be seeing the highest chance of seeing accumulating snows as long bands develop, and will oscillate like a windshield wiper across a wide area. Band #3 will move even further south impacting the Kitchener area as well from time to time. So while it's possible one area may only get a few hours of squall activity, accumulations may be 3-5cm PER hour inland at times and even more closer to the lake. So it's extremely hard to pinpoint exact accumulations.

Attached File  Main_Bands_Squall_Event_Nov_2014.jpg ( 189.96K ) Number of downloads: 7
5 Jan 2014
As everybody knows, behind the storm system today and tonight, a powerful WNW flow will form with sustained winds in the 40-50KM/H range and gusts up to 80KM/H. Not only will this put wind chill values in the minus 30's, it will create a heavy amount of LES beginning Monday across Southern Ontario.

These bands of snow will at times travel over 150 to 200KM inland, giving places that are not used of squalls some decent accumulations.

Okay so here's how it goes. Winds will be WNW Monday and very strong. Gusts in the 70-85KM/H range creating blowing snow and blizzard conditions especially in areas that saw the fresh snow fall this weekend. Winds remain WNW into Mon night. By Tuesday, we will see a WNW occasionally shifting into a W flow which will continue right into Wednesday afternoon before a High Pressure from the west moves in and chokes off the squalls.

Because of the long duration of this event, accumulations in the 40-70cm range are very possible with many areas inland receiving 5-15cm Monday and Monday night. This explains why EC has issued Snowsquall watches to many in-land areas. The high wind speed and tight flow will allow multiple bands to form off Huron and GB and extend hundreds of KM inland. So here's how it looks. Remember this DOES NOT include any storm accumulations. That is additional on top of this map.

Attached File  Squall_Map_Jan_6th_2014.jpg ( 237.49K ) Number of downloads: 10


London: 4-8cm
Goderich: 15-20cm
Kincardine/Sauble Beach: 50-80cm+
Owen Sound: 40-60cm+
Tobermory: 40-70cm+
Collingwood: 20-35cm
Midland: 50-70cm+
Orillia: 50-70m+
Gravenhurst: 55-80cm+
Bracebridge: 40-60cm+
Parry Sound: 20-30cm
Barrie: 15-25cm (higher as you go north towards Midhurst, Horseshoe Valley)
Alliston: 10-15cm
Shelburne: 15-20cm
Dundalk: 20-30cm
Flesherton: 25-35cm
Orangeville: 8-15cm
Kitchener: 5-10cm
GTA: 2-6cm
19 Feb 2013
Here's my map on the LES event beginning tonight. We will see W winds become NW and NNW by Wednesday. They will stay NW/NNW right into Thursday. I am expecting some moderate to strong bands at times especially Wed late morning into Wed night. EC already has snowsquall watches in place as of 7am this morning for areas SE of Huron and GB. I can see the highest amounts of up to 40cm depending on where the bands set up.

For several hours, the GB band will be strong enough to stretch into the GTA (Vaughan, Richmond Hill) including parts of northern and eastern Toronto. Some flurries will make their way right downtown. More info later.

Here's my map:

Attached File  squall_map.jpg ( 229.31K ) Number of downloads: 10
23 Feb 2012
Here's the updated lake effect map:

If you live within the blue dotted area expect up to 2cm in flurries. Areas within the red zone can expect to see an additional 10cm of LES in addition to system snow. If you live in the purple area expect 15 to 25cm, locally 40cm. Winds will be NNW but shifting at times to NW, bands will move around a bit as a result.

LAKE HURON:


Goderich: 20-30cm (locally 40cm)
Kincardine: 5-10cm
Exeter: 25-35cm (locally 40cm)
Grand Bend: 10-20cm
London: 20-30cm (locally 40cm)
Lucan: 25-35cm (locally 40cm)
St. Thomas: 4-6cm
Stratford: 8-15cm


GEORGIAN BAY:


Meaford: 10-20cm
Collingwood: 20-30cm (locally 40cm)
Wasaga Beach: 25-35cm (locally 45cm)
Midland: 5-10cm
Barrie: 30-40cm (locally 45cm)
Angus/Borden: 15-20cm (locally 25cm)
Alliston: 8-15cm
Tottenham: 4-8cm

Attached File  lakeeffectmap.jpg ( 253.25K ) Number of downloads: 3
1 Apr 2009
I have been watching this low for the past 3-4 days on the GFS. Most runs do show snow for South/Central Ontario on the backside. It looks as if enough cold air could help create a rain to snow event. If the low stalls out as suggested by the GFS we have a historic snowstorm here. Chances of all this coming together are about 1/10. We need the exact amount of cold air to mix with the warm air from the south to make sure the low does not swing further west and bring rain or further east and weaken.The 12pm GFS model from today showed one of the biggest April blizzards in history if it were to come true. How much? Upwards of 40cm are shown especially just north and northwest of Toronto. Now this is obviously exaggerated however snow in April has occurred before. Keep an eye out on this potential storm! In the meantime, lets feast our eyes on the 48 hour precip amounts from April 6th-8th....and yes this would be 90% snow for most regions with exceptions of E. Ontario which would remain too warm.

Btw...this is NOT an April Fools Joke. Check out the model for yourselves!

Attached File  gfs_p48_168m.gif ( 50.43K ) Number of downloads: 8

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Comments
futureweatherman...
Happy Birthday Travis... you need to start updating your blog though
29 Jul 2010 - 23:02

hey there..
want to know more about you... hope you wont mind..
I found you interesting..
10 Dec 2009 - 18:33
players1
hey travis i posted some pics in the febuary pattern disco for you. have a good day.
28 Jan 2009 - 12:16

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