BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108280025
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2011, DB, O, 2011082800, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922011
AL, 92, 2011082800, , BEST, 0, 103N, 195W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

1. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH.

WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W//WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 120727Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW THE
AREA WEST OF THE STORM BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED, THE 37GHZ
CUT OF THE SSMIS SERIES REVEALS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE ABSENCE OF BANDING IS A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT), WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE 21ST LATITUDE. THE TUTT IS IMPINGING
ON POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW
GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST, IT ALSO SHOWS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THUS, TS 08W HAS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW IN
ALL BUT ONE QUADRANT. DIFFUSE ORGANIZATION IN THE BOUNDARY LEVEL
CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM'S ENERGY IS DISPERSED OVER A BROAD REGION,
STEALING ENERGY AWAY FROM THE CORE. THE CURRENT INENSITY ANALYSIS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK RANGE FROM 30 TO 32 DEGREES. TS 08W IS
STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE,
WHICH EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYLONE SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO.

3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THE ANTICYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STEADY AND STATIONARY THROUGH 72 HOURS, WHICH WILL KEEP TS 08W ON A
STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG TRACK WILL REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGH (BETWEEN 30 AND
32 DEGREES). OUTFLOW WILL FLUCTUATE AS THE SYSTEM OCCASIONALLY LINKS
WITH AN EMBEDDED TUTT CELL AND RECEIVES A BOOST TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
BUT FOR THE MOST PART, THE TUTT WILL ACT AS A SUPPRESSING MECHANISM.
THUS, TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS STIPS GUIDANCE
CLOSELY. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS VIRTUALLY ALL AIDS AS THEY ARE
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, BUT THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN CONSENSUS DUE TO AN OBSERVED TENDENCY OF STRAIGHT RUNNERS TO BE
FASTER THAN CONSENSUS.
C. BEGINNING NEAR THE TAU 84-96 PERIOD, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN AND RE-ORIENT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW THE STORM TO
TURN POLEWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT REGARDING A TRACK SOUTH
OF IWO TO, AND THE LONGER RANGE PROGS ARE INDICATING POLEWARD
MOVEMENT PRIOR TO THE RYUKUS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE TUTT
WILL KEEP THE INTENSIFICATION RATE LOWER THAN NORMAL. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS ALONG THE SAME TRACK, WHILE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED CLOSELY ON STIPS GUIDANCE.//
NNNN

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107071831
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011070706, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011070612, , BEST, 0, 237N, 828W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011070618, , BEST, 0, 232N, 841W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011070700, , BEST, 0, 236N, 845W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011070706, , BEST, 0, 240N, 848W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 96, 2011070712, , BEST, 0, 244N, 851W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 96, 2011070718, , BEST, 0, 248N, 853W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

WDPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS QUICKLY CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 200758Z
WINDSAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. TS 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EAST OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD, ENHANCED
OUTFLOW AND LOWER VWS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FAVOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION, FUELED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. AFTER TAU 48, THE STEERING STR WILL MOVE FURTHER
NORTHEAST CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY.
C. TS 04W WILL REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY BY TAU 72. A SECONDARY STR
ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN WILL ASSUME STEERING AND CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, 04W
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, REACHING 90 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST
PERIOD. THE LIMITED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008040049
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2010, DB, O, 2010080400, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982010
AL, 98, 2010080300, , BEST, 0, 118N, 620W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010080306, , BEST, 0, 123N, 637W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010080312, , BEST, 0, 128N, 655W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010080318, , BEST, 0, 132N, 673W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 691W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 90, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2010

1. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.