ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 270839
SPC AC 270839

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

VALID 301200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT LESS PREDICTABLE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME
BY MONDAY /DAY 4/. EARLY MONDAY A STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD EXTEND
FROM THE CAROLINAS WWD THROUGH WRN TX. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
MAY EXIST IN THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM ERN NM INTO WRN TX...BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THIS REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.

WARM SECTOR WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS DAY
5 AS OH VALLEY SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND LEE TROUGH WITH
ACCOMPANYING SLY LLJ BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP FROM WRN OK INTO KS ALONG THE DRYLINE AS
WELL AS FARTHER NORTH IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME CAPPING CONCERNS OVER THE PLAINS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN A HIGHER COVERAGE EVENT.

POTENTIAL FOR A GREATER COVERAGE SEVERE EVENT MAY EVOLVE BY DAY 6
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION FROM MN...IA INTO WI WHERE MODELS
INDICATE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY UPSTREAM FROM
RETURNING MOIST AXIS. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...BUT A SEVERE RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE
INTRODUCED FOR THIS REGION IN THE NEXT EXTENDED UPDATE.

..DIAL.. 04/27/2012