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WEATHERFAN100
Rank: F5 Superstorm
18 years old
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LANCASTER PA
Born April-19-1995
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Local Time: May 21 2013, 03:40 AM
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15 Apr 2013
Looks like a cold front will be capable of producing thunderstorm activity over the region on Friday afternoon or evening.
Seems that the CAPE is quite meager at this point, so a widespread outbreak doesn't look to likely at this point. Still something to watch throughout the week.
5 Jul 2012
Next threat for severe weather comes over the weekend as a front comes through. While a updated day 3 outlook has not been made yet they have hinted at it in the discussion that a area of severe weather seems likely in this time-period for Mid Atl to Ohio Valley.
QUOTE AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AN E-W BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SWD THROUGH THE
NERN STATES...MID ATLANTIC AND OH VALLEYS DAY 4-6. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM SECTOR. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL EXIST MOST LIKELY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD INTO THE OH VALLEY DAY 4 AND A LITTLE FARTHER SWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS AND WWD INTO THE OH VALLEY DAY 5. CONFIDENCE IN A HIGHER COVERAGE SEVERE EVENT IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO DELINEATE A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS IN THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
1 Jul 2012
We are stuck in the summer pattern as we enter July which means more chances for severe weather over the region for next week or so. The next threat that catches my eyes as of now is Wednesday and Thursday (July 4th and 5th) time-period.
GFS brings good cape/ LI values up through central Mid-Atlantic. While the NAM from what I see so far confines the severe threat just to the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Still to far out to wrinkle out details as who gets severe weather if any, and timing.
8 Jun 2012
No severe weather outlooks have been made for the day 4-8 time period as of yet but looking at the models Tuesday/Wednesday (June 12/13th) caught my eye for possible severe weather across the east coast. Looks like a front comes through mid week with good amount of moisture associated with it.
Today's 12z GFS- hour 126 for (6/13/12) CAPE:
LI:
Dew Points:
7 Jun 2012
Potential isolated severe threat tomorrow. See Text issued for tomorrow (6/7/12) for the region along with 5% hail probability.
QUOTE ...PA/NJ... .VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...MINUS 18-20C AT 500 MB...WILL EXTEND ACROSS PA/NJ DURING THE DAY. IT APPEARS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AS READINGS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BY 18Z. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT...OR DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IT WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP SWD AT ROUGHLY 10KT WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING The better and more widespread severe threat is on Friday (6/8/12). SPC day 2 outlook highlights portions of New England for potential severe weather for Friday.
QUOTE ...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...
A FAIRLY POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND COMBINED WITH MODEST AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- FROM ERN NY INTO MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE STORMS DEVELOPING IN A FORECAST BACKGROUND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATELY STRONG NWLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...POTENTIAL FOR EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE FAST-MOVING BOWING SEGMENTS APPEARS POSSIBLE. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS -- DESPITE THE MODEST INSTABILITY -- WARRANTS INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST AND BEGIN WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING. |
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wingsovernc
It's me again...wishing you another Happy Birthday! :D May the weather always go your way... 19 Apr 2012 - 7:12
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29 Apr 2013 - 21:35
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 21st May 2013 - 02:40 AM |