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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posting in topic: 4th of July MidAtl/NE Weekend Wx, Happy 239th USA!
Local Time: Jul 4 2015, 01:02 PM
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8 Jun 2015
The next potential for strong to severe thunderstorm activity throughout this active summer-like pattern will be on the Friday-Saturday (June 12-13) timeframe via a cold front.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
RETURN FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS NEARING 20 C
SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPS TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 90S...AND
THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE UPPER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...IN THIS PATTERN YOU CAN OCCASIONALLY GET ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ROUNDING THE RIDGE...SO THAT POTENTIAL WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF HOT AND HUMID AIR FOR
STORMS TO FEED ON SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP.
28 May 2015
The next threat of widespread (possible severe) thunderstorm activity comes this weekend. As of now it seems that the best threat will be later Saturday rather than on Sunday.
SPC already outlined some of our region for a day 3 marginal risk.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN VT TO TX...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME HAIL...WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM
VERMONT...SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS.
...VT TO TX...
PLUME OF TROPICAL AIR WITH PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL EXTEND
ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM TX INTO NRN VT DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.
SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITHIN THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODEST LAPSE RATES. VERTICAL
SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST TO BE SEASONALLY WEAK AND
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS WITHIN A FLOW REGIME
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY 500MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20KT.
STRONGER FLOW WILL BE NOTED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ALONG SRN
FRINGE OF STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT ACROSS ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY ROBUST ACROSS NY/VT AND FOR THIS REASON STORMS THAT
FORM WITHIN STRONGER FLOW SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN SEVERE
CHARACTERISTICS. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD ALSO EXTEND SWWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO TX BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST
STORMS SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE.
24 May 2015
Looks like the region will finally be stuck in a summer-like pattern with temps in 80-90's, with the daily risk of thunderstorms.
SPC has mentioned the risk in their d4-8 outlook today.
HOWEVER...ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY AND POTENTIALLY THE TN
VALLEY...IN ADDITION TO AREAS SUCH AS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY
DAYS 5/6 FRIDAY/SATURDAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY WHILE ALSO DEVELOPING INTO PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF A FRONT.
Will have to further monitor the handy parameters as we get closer.
6 Apr 2015
SPC is currently highlighting southern portions of the Mid-Atl in their 4-8 day outlook for D5 (Friday, April 10th) for the potential of severe thunderstorms.
Snippet of the d4-d8 discussion:
THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE RAPID EWD MOVEMENT ACROSS THE OH/TN
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...AND ATTM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DAY 5 /FRI 4-10/. WITH AN AMPLY UNSTABLE AND
SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT LIKELY TO EXIST IN LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ATTENDANT HAIL/WIND RISK
27 Nov 2014
26 Jun 2015 - 22:19
10 Jun 2015 - 21:08
7 Jun 2015 - 7:21
8 Apr 2015 - 13:11
12 Feb 2015 - 13:18
It's me again...wishing you another Happy Birthday! :D May the weather always go your way...
19 Apr 2012 - 7:12
Hope it's a good one.. :)
18 Apr 2011 - 23:12
Snow melt in progress. Boo.
6 Mar 2010 - 20:00
Hi, how are you doing?
9 May 2009 - 22:32
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