DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/DAY 4. ON MONDAY/DAY
5...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE SWRN STATES WITH THIS
FEATURE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...MOVING THE SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE RETURN TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DUE
TO A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET. STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON/DAY 6 THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ON THE WRN AND NRN EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND
OZARKS NEWD ACROSS THE MID-MS AND OH VALLEYS. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY
7...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SHARPLY WITH THE GFS MOVING A COMPACT
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN STATES. DO TO THESE LARGE
DIFFERENCES...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW LATE IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.
AT THIS POINT...TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WILL NOT OUTLOOK AN AREA DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES OF MAGNITUDE AND TIMING CONCERNING THE UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM.

..BROYLES.. 04/14/2011