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Rank: F5 Superstorm
25 years old
Joined: 23-March 08
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Local Time: Jul 28 2016, 04:14 PM
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15 Jan 2016
16 Dec 2015
Well figured why not start one for this region. Just over a week out until the big holiday is here what kind of weather should you expect? We are still technically past hour 180 but the models are varying quite a bit.
I am not sure if can post the Euro from pro,if i can just let me know and ill change this.
So which do you believe? While the Euro has been pretty consistent, not always right, and the GFS known to have wild swings in the longer range. Well to get a somewhat clearer message we go to 500mb to understand why the models show as they do.
While i like the idea that we stay in a transient pattern with warm and small coolings to average. The big difference that seems to have created this large gap is how the energy to this system is handled. The GFS has been known to kinda zip things along quicker while the Euro likes to hold energy back and really dig systems.
As i stated above, the GFS really does not amplify the system in the plains but lets the energy dig out west pumping a ridge ahead and takes the energy from the plains east and develops it into Canada around Christmas developing what looks like an apps runner giving us a cool blast, no snow pack to the west moderated cold snap.
The Euro wants to send the energy in the plains flying ahead as a S/W along a boundary bring rain with it the day before Christmas eve. Instead it focuses on the energy that digs in the west and really digs a trough out for Christmas day pumping a ridge in the East and a developing storm in the plains.
While the models both have valid runs, its just that only one run, with the pattern we have been having there are expected to be wild swings since the models are very unsure of themselves in the next 2 weeks with maybe a resetting of the pattern or a complete change to the pattern. The biggest difference is the handling of the Pacific in the next week.
Post as you please on your thoughts.
23 Jun 2015
Well here we go again into the active pattern.
Both are for Thursday night into Friday. Might be quite the producer in some spots.
Synoptic System that follows is real impressivee on the GFS:
State College AFD
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AIR CONDITIONERS GET A BREAK WED NIGHT AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON THU AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESP FOR SW HALF. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL. DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...AND UP POPS SOME.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.
OVERALL...AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS...LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN ACROSS THE EAST. THE MAIN THING IS THIS IS A WET PATTERN.
ANYWAY...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS WET.
PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER BY NEXT TUE.
8 Jun 2015
Forgive me because I have not started a topic in quite some time so if needed please change around what needs to be changed. Im alos not sure if it is ok to post pro stuff on here but i posted one picture let me know if this ok as well.
But none the less we are about to get some heat coming our way. Above is from the 00z Euro showing a somewhat decent ridge trying to get going across the SE US and stretching up our way a bit. It is still almost a little less than a week out but we will get a taste of what may be coming by this thursday friday saturday period where some places may experience their first heat wave.
The GFS after this time period really wants to get the ridge strengthening after a few shortwaves run along the top of this. We may be on the battle grounds in this region between some cooler air and extreme heat but that is to be determined what is everyones thoughts on this?
27 Apr 2013
Does anyone know of a good place to download full albums of artists? I have been trying to look all over and haven't found one that has any of the bands im looking for.
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I think you deserve more than three stars! Maybe we can start a petition!
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