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jdrenken
Rank: F5 Superstorm
40 years old
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Columbia, MO
Born April-11-1974
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jdrenken

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24 Jan 2015
With JD's permission (and only after his permission) let's have a little fun for all of the forecasters out there.

I propose a snow forecasting contest for this system.

Total storm snow forecasts commencing at 1900L tomorrow through Wednesday Morning at 0700.

Cities: Boston (BOS), Hartford (HFD), Worcester (ORH), Concord (CON), August ME (AUG), Portland ME (PWM), Albany (ALB), LaGuardia (LGA), Scranton (AVP), Philadelphia (PHL), Atlantic City (ACY), Baltimore (BWI), Wash Dulles (IAD), Providence (PVD)

1 point error for each inch of frozen precipitation incorrect from official total values posted by Hydrological Prediction Center, NWS. Points summed up for all 14 locations.

Winner: Receives recognition from all other members by earning title of Winter 2015 Snow Champion (or another title deemed worthy by the old hands on this site)

Your entry must be posted on this thread visible to all NLT 1859 hours tomorrow night. One entry per person only. Supertyphoon will tabulate results and post by late Wednesday night.

ST
5 Nov 2014
Let's keep the cold anomalies in here...

Day 6 or Veteran's Day
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November 12th
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12 Oct 2014
Hello everyone,

Since we've started to see winter weather forecast populate the internet, feel free to post them here.
2 Feb 2014
There have been multiple complaints on the social media scene regarding people posting the ECMWF model to the public instead of keep it behind a paid wall situation. With this in mind, you can discuss what you see on the model, but cannot post the actual model!

Please reference this tweet from Ryan Maue. Yes, we are in the process of obtaining a definition of "most". However, better safe than sorry!
Attached File(s)
Attached File  Maue.PNG ( 164.83K ) Number of downloads: 347
 
29 Oct 2013
A few nuggets...

QUOTE
October 27, 2013
BOULDER—Scientists have fingerprinted a distinctive atmospheric wave pattern high above the Northern Hemisphere that can foreshadow the emergence of summertime heat waves in the United States more than two weeks in advance.


QUOTE
To see if heat waves can be triggered by certain large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, the scientists looked at data from relatively modern records dating back to 1948. They focused on summertime events in the United States in which daily temperatures reached the top 2.5 percent of weather readings for that date across roughly 10 percent or more of the contiguous United States. However, since such extremes are rare by definition, the researchers could identify only 17 events that met such criteria—not enough to tease out a reliable signal amid the noise of other atmospheric behavior.

The group then turned to an idealized simulation of the atmosphere spanning 12,000 years. The simulation had been created a couple of years before with a version of the NCAR-based Community Earth System Model, which is funded by NSF and the Department of Energy.

By analyzing more than 5,900 U.S. heat waves simulated in the computer model, they determined that the heat waves tended to be preceded by a wavenumber-5 pattern. This pattern is not caused by particular oceanic conditions or heating of Earth’s surface, but instead arises from naturally varying conditions of the atmosphere. It is associated with an atmospheric phenomenon known as a Rossby wave train that encircles the Northern Hemisphere along the jet stream.


Just adding a few links...Bering Sea Rule...and LRC. wink.gif
QUOTE
"There may be sources of predictability that we are not yet aware of,” she says. “This brings us hope that the likelihood of extreme weather events that are damaging to society can be predicted further in advance.”
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31B militaryPoli...
Thanks for the birthday wish. Take care.
6 Feb 2012 - 21:21
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