Rank: F5 Superstorm
40 years old
Joined: 26-March 08
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Local Time: Sep 1 2014, 11:15 PM
32,935 posts (14 per day)
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2 Feb 2014
There have been multiple complaints on the social media scene regarding people posting the ECMWF model to the public instead of keep it behind a paid wall situation. With this in mind, you can discuss what you see on the model, but cannot post the actual model!
Please reference this tweet from Ryan Maue. Yes, we are in the process of obtaining a definition of "most". However, better safe than sorry!
29 Oct 2013
A few nuggets...
October 27, 2013
BOULDER—Scientists have fingerprinted a distinctive atmospheric wave pattern high above the Northern Hemisphere that can foreshadow the emergence of summertime heat waves in the United States more than two weeks in advance.
To see if heat waves can be triggered by certain large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, the scientists looked at data from relatively modern records dating back to 1948. They focused on summertime events in the United States in which daily temperatures reached the top 2.5 percent of weather readings for that date across roughly 10 percent or more of the contiguous United States. However, since such extremes are rare by definition, the researchers could identify only 17 events that met such criteria—not enough to tease out a reliable signal amid the noise of other atmospheric behavior.
The group then turned to an idealized simulation of the atmosphere spanning 12,000 years. The simulation had been created a couple of years before with a version of the NCAR-based Community Earth System Model, which is funded by NSF and the Department of Energy.
By analyzing more than 5,900 U.S. heat waves simulated in the computer model, they determined that the heat waves tended to be preceded by a wavenumber-5 pattern. This pattern is not caused by particular oceanic conditions or heating of Earth’s surface, but instead arises from naturally varying conditions of the atmosphere. It is associated with an atmospheric phenomenon known as a Rossby wave train that encircles the Northern Hemisphere along the jet stream.
Just adding a few links...Bering Sea Rule...and LRC.
"There may be sources of predictability that we are not yet aware of,” she says. “This brings us hope that the likelihood of extreme weather events that are damaging to society can be predicted further in advance.”
17 Oct 2013
A special request has been made that I explain the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to the masses. Since the Bering Sea Rule is the first "heads up" in a pattern I will begin with it.
The Bering Sea Rule was a pattern that I recognized back in 2011/2012 while performing my moderator duties at Accuweather.com. Joe Bastardi made a claim that after some monster storms of 1950 and 1974 in the Bering Sea, that within 3 weeks of those storms we saw monster storms for the East and left it at that. Sadly enough, I was playing firefighter in the thread below and the corresponding OBS thread because his hype didn't come true.
Here is a picture that he tweated showing the 50/74 storms in question.
...and the wiki on both storms...
Over the years, I have amassed multiple post where I have correlated the above to a pattern that follows. That is where JB got himself into trouble. He was attempting to get people involved in the hype of some monster storms instead of looking at the pattern in general. One of my favorite "JDism's" on the forum is "It's all about the pattern, and knowing the right pattern is what it's all about!" or "We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!"
Is there any research outside of me that has looked deeper into this...not that I can find. In fact, if one performs a google search on this, you will find two good friends of mine who have typed up blogs about the subject based on what I've taught them.
As for the Typhoon Rule...this rule has been around for decades.
It became popular by Joe Bastardi who used it while at Accuweather. The rule is quite simple and applies all year round! If a typhoon recurves as it approaches Japan, whether it be too late to miss the Korean Peninsula or completely miss Japan OTS, the weather in the Eastern US is teleconnected 6-10 days later. How does this apply all year you ask? Easy way to think about it is that a cold front is forcing the typhoon to recurve one way or the other. Cold fronts aren't seasonally dependant like typhoons are...they happen all year round! The same applies if the typhoon heads into Mainland China. That translates to a ridge blocking the typhoon from recurving towards Japan and the Eastern US will have a heat ridge develop in 6-10 days as a result.
A few resources that I use to help me with the pattern recognition techniques...
WPC 5 Day Lower 48 Forecast
WPC Alaska Day 4-8 500mb Forecast
Ocean Prediction Center
Weather Online Expert Charts 500mb
Accuweather Pro Animator
North Pacific View
20 Aug 2013
After talking with OSNW3, we have determined that there is a need for a new thread due to the standard morphing this time of year.
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26 Mar 2014 - 14:43
Thanks for the birthday wish. Take care.
6 Feb 2012 - 21:21
Thank you for the Happy Birthday wishes! Hope you and your family had a wonderful Christmas!
27 Dec 2011 - 7:29
1 Nov 2011 - 17:43
Congrats on 20K posts!
20 Mar 2011 - 22:56
Thanks for the Happy Birthday!
6 Feb 2011 - 20:22
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