NYCSuburbs doesn't have a personal statement currently.
Rank: F5 Superstorm
Joined: 29-August 08
Profile Views: 36,193*
Last Seen: Today, 02:11 AM
Local Time: Dec 6 2013, 04:09 AM
30,262 posts (16 per day)
* Profile views updated each hour
2 Dec 2013
Since it's clear we have some thread timing issues, it seemed the most logical step to split the Dec 7-9 thread into two discussions. This is for the Dec 5-7 time frame, for the first 2 waves of low pressures that move along the frontal boundary; the first is on Thurs night, Dec 5-6, and the second is on Fri night, Dec 6-7. Then the Dec 7-9 thread can be changed to Dec 8-9 and cover the Sunday-Monday storm, which IMO features a much better potential for widespread snow/ice, provided it doesn't end up too amplified.
This was the 6z GFS:
23 Nov 2013
This thread was long overdue... someone had to start it. Since we had our previous drought threads in the Current Weather forum (such as Spring 2012) I placed this one here as well. NYC and Boston metro areas under D1 conditions with no significant rain event in over 2 months, since 9/22 - over these 2 months, the biggest rain event in NYC was only 0.25 inch. CPC actually shows a persisting and developing drought for its 3-month seasonal outlook, which they never did for the 2012 drought when D1 and even D2 conditions were widespread, showing "some improvement" at the worst.
The next upcoming rain potential is on Wednesday. So far it looks to possibly defy the trend for little to no rain, but the models are still all over the place with it. If it hits, we should get at least 1-3" of rain which partially but not completely eases the drought. If it misses, that would definitely not be a good sign. There's been many outlooks showing a snowy winter pattern, but if we want a snowy pattern, we'd want it to become stormy as well.
For the short term, the region is under a red flag warning for tomorrow with strong wind gusts expected.
19 Nov 2013
Alternative thread title:
Subtropical Stor - wait, this season isn't over?!
5AM AST: Who cares, it'll be gone before we know it anyways
I can't believe our lowest minimum pressure could be from a subtropical storm. All it has to do is drop below 980mb and we lose the record for the highest min pressure for a season's most intense storm in the satellite era.
5 Nov 2013
This one is still quite a bit out, although I decided to go ahead and open this thread as there is some sort of a storm likelihood in the eastern half of the US in this time frame, whether a weak cold front on the 6z GFS or the 0z ECM fantasy massive low pressure. Normally I wouldn't make a big deal of this but the main thing that's catching my attention to begin with is the extremely anomalous north central Pacific blocking, which I would easily think has to be one of, if not the strongest on record for this time of the year - h5 heights rise to 588-594dm in the northern Pacific and Aleutians, perhaps even over 594dm which would be extremely high for that region in November.
Not surprisingly, models are having somewhat of a tough time nailing down the specifics of this setup, both with the typical long range variations and difficulty in handling the NE Pacific setup. The 0z ECM, which brought a massive low pressure into the region and would basically eliminate the D1 drought in no time, already seems to hold back the troughing too far west in Canada (typical long range bias), which allows it to dig anomalously south and lead to the crazy storm it shows, while the others are more progressive and range from some showers to a progressive moderate-heavy rain event.
Given the teleconnections with a screaming -PNA, +AO and +NAO, without looking beyond that it would be typical to think it would be a torch, but I'm not entirely convinced of a warm pattern, at least until next weekend (11/16-18 - after then I suspect it could get warmer). The flow becomes zonal next week, but not necessarily warm as we've associated the term zonal with in 2011-12 and Dec 2013, as there's a weak tendency for lower heights in the NE along with a cold air mass near the US/Canada border that should keep temps near-below average in the Northeast through the first half of next week. I'm not too sure this one breaks the drought at this time, nor of the ECM solution, but it's something worth to keep an eye on until models settle down with something; even a typical cold front is somewhat interesting with the lack of storminess this fall.
0z GFS/0z ECM h5 height anomalies:
0z ECM - crazy storm setup
6z GFS - typical light-moderate rain event/cold front
29 Sep 2013
I think there's a bit of a thread confusion as the Oct 2-5 thread is closed, so (at least for now) I opened this thread for the storm. Looks like a strong frontal passage bringing the first widespread rain event in the last 2 weeks, and given the progressive pattern tendency the following week or two look relatively dry as well. Hopefully we get as much as we can out of it.
Should also note that strong surface-h5 bulk shear is expected with the front. A sharper frontal passage could bring a higher risk of some thunderstorms and strong wind gusts. Heavy rainfall rates are likely as well given moisture feed from the Atlantic/GOM.
GFS hour 180:
2 Dec 2013 - 22:02
29 Nov 2013 - 18:49
24 Nov 2013 - 12:46
23 Nov 2013 - 16:44
17 Nov 2013 - 19:20
Other users have left no comments for NYCSuburbs.
There are no friends to display.
|Lo-Fi Version||Time is now: 6th December 2013 - 04:09 AM|