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17 Feb 2014
I'm surprised no thread has been started on this... it's been over a month since the last widespread plain rain event (Jan 14 I think), the snow has definitely been the highlight of the last month but it appears we'll finally have some variation in the pattern coming up this week with a brief taste of spring as a strong low cuts through the Lakes, aiding in a surge of GOM moisture and warmth into the C US with severe wx possible on Thursday, which later reaches the region on Friday as the front moves through. Differences with the timing of the front exist as usual, with the GFS bringing the front through fairly quickly early on Thursday afternoon while the other models are slower; given the GFS' progressive bias it would be reasonable to side with the slower models, supporting widespread highs in the 50s into the northern Mid Atlantic/parts of SNE and the 60s and even 70s in the central-southern Mid Atlantic. The strength of the cold front is also somewhat in question as the best forcing lifts north into Canada, although if these aspects set up in a favorable position, the frontal passage on Friday could support widespread moderate-heavy rain and thunderstorms, up to at least NYC with a slightly negative lift index, and perhaps even a risk of severe weather in the Mid Atlantic.
0z GFS, which is slower than the latest 6z run:
15 Feb 2014
15 Feb 2014
Another one gone under the NHC radar... our extremely lame, inactive, non-existent, imaginary, whatever term you want to call it "hurricane season" of 2013 actually had a last minute addition. Which, like the other storms, was also weak and for the fishes.
Read the full info here:
14 Feb 2014
Opened this thread to keep it separate from the Saturday storm (the one on 2/15)
Some models supporting moderate snow in the NE, can't post right now
5 Feb 2014
I know this isn't nearly as extreme as the last few cold outbreaks were, and by our new standards this winter this time period would barely even deserve its own thread, but I just noticed temps in the NYC area forecast to stay almost, if not entirely below freezing from tomorrow through at least the middle of next week... if it does verify, the potential would be there for 7 consecutive below freezing days which is not a common event in NYC. Elsewhere in the region temps are still below average. I just hope I can remove the question mark from the end of the thread title as soon as possible since I'm already sick of the cold.
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