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NYCSuburbs
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NYCSuburbs

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19 Aug 2014
18z GFS in its outlandish scenario depicts a California landfall.

Regardless, a hurricane appears likely off the coast of Mexico in this time frame.

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4 Aug 2014
Iselle has once again defied intensity forecasts and intensified into a major hurricane, with what NHC states appears to be an annular hurricane structure, and have accordingly slowed down the forecast weakening trend.

5am NHC discussion:?

QUOTE
Iselle continues to show an annular hurricane structure with no
outer banding around a symmetric inner core.
Satellite
classifications are about the same as a few hours ago, so the
initial wind speed will remain 110 kt. Little change in intensity
is likely today while a low-shear environment remains near the
hurricane. Iselle is likely to experience some shear on Tuesday,
which should start a more consistent weakening. As the cyclone
moves deeper into the central Pacific basin, a combination of dry
air aloft, westerly shear and marginal SSTs should continue the
weakening process. The latest NHC forecast is somewhat above the
model consensus early on due to the annular structure, but ends up
below the consensus at long range due to the unfavorable
environment described above.


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NHC predicts it will pass just north of Big Island and make landfall near NW Hawaii as a tropical storm. We'll have to see how well that goes; last year's Flossie was forecast to make landfall near Big Island, but collapsed into a tropical depression and relocated north of the islands at the last minute. No tropical cyclone made landfall in Hawaii since 1993's Eugene, and I don't think any tropical storm made landfall in Big Island since 1950.

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3 Aug 2014
I've probably ranted more than enough times about my lack of severe thunderstorms, and a quick search through SPC through a link I had no idea even existed until just a few days ago further confirms that northeast Bergen county has a tendency to avoid severe thunderstorms, at least based on the reports sent to SPC.

Below is a year-by-year review, focusing on the following section of Bergen county which from my personal observations has had a lack of severe thunderstorms in contrast to locations even barely outside the highlighted area, generally north of Fort Lee and east of the Garden State Parkway. For reference purposes, my location in Bergen county was generally near Cresskill, in east-central Bergen county.

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2014 - 0 - No reports in this area through August 3rd.

2013 - 2 - Two severe wind reports in the area:
July 7: Reports of trees down in Emerson and Dumont. I was on vacation at that time.
October 7: Trees down in Oradell and Bergenfield, with a tornado in Paramus just outside of this highlighted area. I was in Albany at that time.

(Notable mention to June 18th when I received a few dime and penny sized hailstones. The first time I actually witnessed hail in Bergen county.)

2012 - 1 - One hail report in the area:
September 7: Quarter inch hail in Harrington Park. I arrived in Bergen county not long after this thunderstorm weakened.

(September 8: Morning tornadic activity stayed to my east in NYC. Evening severe activity was just outside of this box, with a bow echo signature and tornado warning near Paramus and up the Garden State Parkway where wind damage was observed.)

2011 - 3 - Two wind reports and one hail report in the area:
June 9: Hail reported in Harrington Park and Norwood (northern Bergen county). I got a downpour from that cell but the hail core missed me literally by a few miles to the north.
August 19: Damaging hail and wind report in Oradell, NJ. Hail fell near my immediate area for the first time since 2008 and I was... on vacation outside of the US.

2010 - 0 - No reports in this area.
(Notable mention goes to July 21, when numerous rounds of severe thunderstorms stayed just north of Bergen county; July 23, when a tornado warned cell stayed near southern Bergen county; and July 25, when conditions in Cresskill were close to but just below severe criteria from a cell which later spawned a tornado in the Bronx, barely a few miles to my east).

2009 - 0 - No reports within the area, although many reports were concentrated near the western end of the box.
(Notable mention goes to June 15, when a foot of hail accumulated in parts of Washington Township and close to Emerson. Best I got was typical heavy rain.)

2008 - 5 - Mostly wind and some hail reports:
June 10 - Severe wind report in Dumont. Bergenfield just to the south reported 40mph gusts.
June 14 - Damaging wind near Closter. I received almost 2" of rain but I do not recall more than moderately strong wind gusts.
August 6 - Damaging wind in Harrington Park. I received over 1" of rain and moderately strong wind gusts.
August 12 - Severe hail and wind in Fort Lee. Nothing in east central Bergen county.
August 15 - Severe wind reported near Ho-Ho-Kus. Core of the cell moved towards my area, producing 1" of rain with moderate wind gusts and even small hail near my immediate area, and I was... at the airport about to go on vacation.

2007 - 2 - Two wind reports:
May 16 - Severe wind damage reported near Norwood (northern Bergen county).
August 3 - Severe wind damage in Bergenfield and Dumont. This one I think did affect me with actual severe criteria and wind damage.

2006 - 0 - No reports on SPC, although I find this a bit odd as I recall (and have pictures of) wind damage from thunderstorms during this summer.
2005 - 1 - One report near far northern Bergen county.
2004 - 0 - None on SPC.
2003 - 0 - None on SPC.
2002 - 0 - None on SPC.
2001 - 0 - None on SPC.
2000 - 0 - None on SPC.

I'm not sure about the 2000-2006 data, even though I don't recall the specifics of weather events from those years I do remember several severe-looking storms which produced wind damage near my area. 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2011 were relative active in my area, although I happened to be on vacation during the only two times that my immediate area received hail. These four years had numerous strong thunderstorms, some which produced wind damage nearby, but the majority of the actual severe reports was near the northern and western parts of the box. 2012-2014 featured a relative severe weather drought.

To summarize, there have been many strong thunderstorms in this time frame, some producing wind damage and others producing small hail, although in terms of actual severe thunderstorm criteria, northeast New Jersey lacked the frequency of severe thunderstorm reports that was observed in surrounding counties and even other parts of Bergen county. Not so much of a "no-thunderstorm zone" as much as a "no severe thunderstorm zone".
2 Aug 2014
This one has been there for a while (I think it formed on July 25th), peaking with 45mph/1004mb in the East Pacific basin, and initially dissipated just after entering the Central Pacific basin. It then regenerated as a tropical depression, dissipated again, and once again regenerated today as a tropical depression.

For what it's worth, CPHC predicts Genevieve will survive into the West Pacific basin as a tropical storm... I don't recall many tropical cyclones which existed in all three North Pacific basins, 1994's John easily comes to mind but otherwise I can't think of other examples. Then again, John was a Category 5 hurricane while this is a struggling tropical depression which regenerated for the 2nd time. One issue to consider though is CPHC's forecasting accuracy, not that there's many central Pacific tropical cyclones to monitor but they were continuously too bullish with Genevieve's forecast intensity and predicted it to persist for too long, so it wouldn't surprise me if Genevieve dissipates again prior to reaching the dateline.

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19 Jul 2014
Stopping by to open a thread for the next chance of precip on July 23-24... I barely followed the weather over the last few days, was just now made aware of this possibility, and I don't plan to invest much attention in it anyways given how this summer's "severe" events have gone here so far.

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4 Aug 2014 - 21:23


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