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19 Jul 2014
Stopping by to open a thread for the next chance of precip on July 23-24... I barely followed the weather over the last few days, was just now made aware of this possibility, and I don't plan to invest much attention in it anyways given how this summer's "severe" events have gone here so far.

Attached Image
14 Jul 2014
NDFD is planning to change its forecast grid spatial resolution from 5km to 2.5km in August. More details here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin14-15ndfd-res.htm

Effective Tuesday, August 19, 2014, at 1400 Coordinated Universal

Time (UTC), the NWS will transition the spatial and temporal

resolution in the NDFD from experimental to operational status.

After this transition, the operational NDFD will be available at

2.5km spatial resolution for all forecast times and at 1 hour

temporal resolution for the first 36 hours from NDFD issuance

time. These are the finest spatial and temporal resolutions at

which Weather Forecast Offices in the Conterminous United States

(CONUS) provide forecasts. Forecasts from NWS offices and centers

employing coarser resolutions will be mapped onto the finer

resolution NDFD grid.
1 Jul 2014
It might be easy to overlook this time frame given the current activity and tropical storm Arthur, although this period looks rather interesting as well. Following a brief heat surge on Monday and Tuesday when the next chance for widespread 90s exists along the I-95 corridor as 850 hPa temps rise to about 16-20C, the next cold front should approach on Tuesday or Wednesday, running into an already unstable air mass. Still have time to nail down the specifics although an early concern I'd have is if the upper level flow is relatively zonal with a lack of strong forcing for widespread thunderstorms.

12z ECM:

Attached Image
29 Jun 2014
This heat wave is not an anomalous event, and is muted compared to recent summers through early July, but since I've seen this time period constantly downplayed, especially on other weather forums, and since heat and humidity can prove to be a dangerous combination, I went ahead and opened a heat wave thread. I think there was already a heat wave earlier this month in parts of Virginia, but there hasn't been much more than a few days barely reaching or surpassing 90 degrees here and there north of Maryland.

While this won't be one of those well-defined widespread mid-upper 90s type of heat waves, due to the constant threat of afternoon-evening convection ahead of the approaching cold front (one reason I suspect the Severe Wx thread will remain more active than this thread), 850 hPa temps are forecast to reach the 18-22C range. Along with a much more humid air mass bringing dew points into the upper 60s and low 70s (FWIW, GFS indicated mid 70s although medium range models are sometimes warm biased with dew points - and accordingly cool bias with temperatures), sufficient sunshine in the morning through at least 18z would allow temps to quickly climb into the low 90s in parts of the I-95 corridor from DC-BOS and the mid-upper 90s from DC and further south. It would not surprise me if locations along the former corridor that are not affected by significant clouds/rain from the afternoon convection may warm up even more. The humidity aspect should bring heat indices into the mid to upper 90s.

VA easily looks to reach heat wave criteria; from NJ and further north, given the convective thunderstorm activity in the afternoon and evenings, heat wave verification looks to be on an isolated scale. A few days ago it seemed that NJ may barely touch 90 on Wednesday before a cold front moves through, but with the addition of 91L near Florida and the upper level trough trending slower and north, the cold front trended slower as well, allowing for a period of heat and humidity in the middle of the week. Nothing anomalous in any way, but IMO, 90+ degree heat and humidity is noteworthy and important to mention rather than downplay.

0z ECM for Wednesday, FWIW:

Attached Image
18 Jun 2014
This looks to be our next time frame. Models still not very consistent with the fine details although there have been consistent signals for a low pressure near or north of the region in this time frame producing showers and thunderstorms.

Whatever happens, hopefully it goes better than today's failed potential in the NYC area.
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