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15 Apr 2014
I had absolutely no idea where to place this thread but I thought it would be of possible interest, especially to those from the West Coast region.
A research paper published recently suggests that the significant increase in pollution over Asia over the recent decades and thus increasing anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere could be related to stronger storms in the Pacific with impacts extending downstream to North America. National Geographic has an article on this, with a short section posted below:
Clouds form when water vapor condenses around aerosol particles to form liquid droplets. Because pollution increases the number of particles, it leads to more water droplets—but smaller ones. Those smaller droplets in turn rise to greater heights in the atmosphere—and even form ice—before they precipitate back out.
Link to the actual research
10 Apr 2014
Still a bit early but with the potential for a strong El Nino for the first time since 2009 emerging in the Pacific (and likely stronger than that one as well, perhaps rivaling that of 1997-98), it will be interesting to see the impact the El Nino has on the Atlantic hurricane season, which over the last 2 years despite the lack of a strong ENSO signal has been trending less active with each season; first 2012 with many tropical storms-low end CAT 1 hurricanes with only Sandy & Michael becoming major hurricanes, then 2013 which was one of the least active seasons on record.
There's still another 1-2 months until most outlooks come out; the early outlooks on Wikipedia by TSR and WSI indicate near-slightly below average activity, FWIW.
In the meantime, already making a backup plan ahead of time in case this season is inactive as well, there's still the West Pacific & Australian basins to track with a CAT 4 cyclone currently rapidly intensifying as it approaches Queensland...
4 Apr 2014
Normally I'd also be with the crowd hoping for some cold and perhaps a fluke late season snow event, but this season has been enough to make me sick of winter for a while and anxiously look forward to the next warm up. Next week finally looks like one with more sustained warmth, as the earlier-hyped mid week "cool down" is nothing more than a transient trough quickly swinging through with only 1 day in the 40s in the Northeast and 50s near I-95, followed by strong WAA for Thursday and Friday as the upper level flow quickly flattens out with a low racing east through southern Canada dragging a warm air mass off the Rockies. Tuesday also looks to be fairly mild with highs in the 60s along I-95 behind the cold front; while the interior NE will be chilly on Wednesday, I don't know if it's worth splitting the thread because of only 1 chilly day for parts of the region. While Monday wasn't included in the thread, parts of SNE may reach the low 60s ahead of the heavy rain event.
The main uncertainty is the timing of the timing of the low on Thu-Fri which will determine if there's just 1 or 2 warm days; a slower timing would probably result in widespread highs in the mid 50s-low 60s on Thursday but much more widespread 60s and perhaps even 70s up to the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday, while a faster timing would lead to warmer temps on Thursday especially in western parts of the region but colder temps on Friday.
6z GFS for Thursday, with the more progressive scenario - regardless of whether the faster/warmer or slower/cooler timing verifies, the model bias of underestimating surface temps in spring warm ups likely applies.
17 Feb 2014
I'm surprised no thread has been started on this... it's been over a month since the last widespread plain rain event (Jan 14 I think), the snow has definitely been the highlight of the last month but it appears we'll finally have some variation in the pattern coming up this week with a brief taste of spring as a strong low cuts through the Lakes, aiding in a surge of GOM moisture and warmth into the C US with severe wx possible on Thursday, which later reaches the region on Friday as the front moves through. Differences with the timing of the front exist as usual, with the GFS bringing the front through fairly quickly early on Thursday afternoon while the other models are slower; given the GFS' progressive bias it would be reasonable to side with the slower models, supporting widespread highs in the 50s into the northern Mid Atlantic/parts of SNE and the 60s and even 70s in the central-southern Mid Atlantic. The strength of the cold front is also somewhat in question as the best forcing lifts north into Canada, although if these aspects set up in a favorable position, the frontal passage on Friday could support widespread moderate-heavy rain and thunderstorms, up to at least NYC with a slightly negative lift index, and perhaps even a risk of severe weather in the Mid Atlantic.
0z GFS, which is slower than the latest 6z run:
15 Feb 2014
25 Mar 2014 - 21:14
10 Mar 2014 - 21:24
27 Feb 2014 - 22:53
24 Feb 2014 - 14:11
21 Feb 2014 - 7:46
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