SPC AC 070730 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... THE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT MID LEVEL JET DROP SEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC...PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM SERN CANADA THROUGH NRN PARTS OF OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY. A WEAK SFC WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE OVER THE OH VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE SWD DURING THE DAY. ...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE NERN STATES... PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES. ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED...BUT DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. THOUGH STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL...THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES. PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THIS REGION INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...BUT STORMS WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.