Dec 29-30 MidAtl/NE Storm

Begin.

The GFS has held onto a strong signal for a Miller A type storm in this timeframe for the past day and a half or so. I don't have time to post previous runs but here's a snapshot from tonights 0z run.



I genuinely believe this is the EC's first shot a decent winter storm this season, but this is heavily dependant on where the ULL sets up from the 25th-27th storm and how much cold air is forced down into the Lower 48. The GFS has been very consistent with this being the timeframe for a sustained and locked-in cold airmass for a majority of the country, but only time will tell.

Statistical note: I am also the only member of this forum to have opened a thread for an accumulating snow event this season (November 7th-9th) and I'm hoping to get lucky again.

Nov. 7-9 MidAtl/NE NorŽeaster

Begin.

GFS/ECM agree on a potential coastal or coastal hugger affecting the region during this timeframe.

12z GFS:


12z ECMWF:




Teleconnections are as follows: Neutral NAO going slightly positive, PNA positive going neutral to slightly negative, positive AO.

Feb 18 MidAtl/NE Weak Disturbance

Both the 18z and 0z runs of the GFS/NAM have a weak disturbance associated with the leftover northern stream energy from Canada moving across the Southern and Central New England and possibly the NYC area Saturday evening. Figured I'd open a thread on this considering the fact that the 19-20th event is likely to pass well to our south so we at least have something more interesting to talk about.

Dec. 31-Jan. 3 MidAtl/NE Clipper

Yesterdays 18z GFS:


0z GFS:


6z GFS:


12z GFS:


This has the potential to be the only legit chance at accumulating snow for anyone from Richmond to Boston for a long time. Hopefully the models thread the needle on this one.

Dec. 6-8 MidAtl/NE Storm

All of today's GFS runs have shown some variant of a storm affecting this timeframe: