THE FIRST UPR-LVL WAVE TO IMPACT NY/PA THIS PD IS
SLATED FOR WED AFTN AND EVE. THIS SYSTEM FEATURES A WELL DEVELOPED
JET CIRCULATION/BAND OF MID-LVL FGEN...SPCLY FROM ABT 21Z WED-
06Z THU. USING A BLEND OF HPC/GFS/NAM QPF`S...A GENERAL 0.25-0.5"
STRIPE IS PROGGED DURG THIS TIME FRAME ACRS THE TWIN TIERS...WHICH
COULD TRANSLATE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PTYP IS CERTAINLY QUESTIONABLE THIS FAR OUT...BUT SINCE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY STEEP LR`S ABV THE SFC-BASED LYR...THE
TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR AN INITIAL MIX TO GO OVER TO SNOW WITH
TIME...SPCLY AFTER SUNSET. FOR NOW...WE WENT WITH POTENTIAL SNOW
ACCUMS OF 1-3" ON THE HILLTOPS...WITH VERY LTL IN THE VALLEYS.

THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL ALLOW THE THERMAL GRADIENT /BAROCLINICITY/ TO
INCREASE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND
MESOSCALE MODELS ALL SUGGEST AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIP EVOLVES
OVER THE STATE OF OHIO AND TRACKS INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL A RATHER ROBUST AREA OF 2D FGEN TO
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES AS TO WHERE THIS ENHANCED BAND OF
PRECIP WILL EVOLVE AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST NORTH ACROSS THE DACKS WITH THE 12Z NAM
SUPPORTING THE NOTION OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE 18Z NAM IS NOW A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH SO WE WILL NUDGE THE POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I90. AS FOR PTYPE...THIS WILL BE INTERESTING. THE
COMBINATION OF WET BULB PROCESSES...NOCTURNAL TIMING OF THE
PRECIP...SUGGESTS WITHIN THIS ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIP THAT MOST OF
PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...THERE
COULD BE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AS LATEST QPF VALUES APPROACH ONE
HALF OF AN INCH AND APPLYING A 10:1 RATIO. FOR NOW...WE WILL PLACE
WITHIN THE HWO AND CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING.