Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Profile
Personal Photo
Rating
 
Options
Options
Personal Statement
snowlover2 doesn't have a personal statement currently.
Personal Info
snowlover2
Rank: F5 Superstorm
40 years old
Male
Dayton,OH
Born July-30-1976
Interests
No Information
Statistics
Joined: 30-December 08
Profile Views: 31,815*
Last Seen: Today, 12:50 AM
Local Time: Aug 29 2016, 10:39 AM
15,022 posts (5 per day)
Contact Information
AIM No Information
Yahoo No Information
ICQ No Information
MSN No Information
Contact Private
* Profile views updated each hour

snowlover2

Member

***


Topics
Posts
Comments
Friends
My Content
7 Aug 2016
ILN seems very concerned about slow moving storms with torrential rains for most of next week. They wrote a novel about it.

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
250 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016


.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

A shift in the weather pattern over the Ohio Valley will begin on
Monday, though without significant impacts to the weather
conditions quite yet. Mid-level heights will be rising steadily
through the day, setting the stage for the heat and humidity that
will build into the region later in the week. At the surface, a
weak and nebulous front will set up west-to-east from Tennessee to
southern Virginia, gradually shifting northwest in the light flow.
Eventually, a weak trough will establish itself on the west side
of the Appalachians, with higher theta-e air advecting into the
southeast portions of the ILN forecast area by Monday afternoon.
For most of the CWA, the forecast from Sunday to Monday will not
be terribly different -- perhaps slightly warmer, but still with
similar dewpoints and SCT/BKN cumulus during the afternoon. For
the southeast, however, the increasing moisture may be enough to
spark a few showers during peak diurnal timing. Model predictions
on QPF are inconsistent, but given the pattern and instability,
including a slight chance PoP seemed reasonable -- though only for
areas near Maysville, West Union, Portsmouth, and Vanceburg.

Dry conditions are expected Monday night, but increasing moisture
will result in greater cloud cover and surface Td values. Because
of this, the MinT forecast will show a notable increase from
Sunday night to Monday night -- with values as high as the upper
60s to near 70 in the southern half of the forecast area.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

The screaming message during this time period will be anomalous deep
layer moisture over the Ohio Valley...with frequent threats for
showers and thunderstorms...many of which will be slow moving and
likely contain torrential rainfall rates in this high moisture/low
wind flow environment. There will be an almost daily threat of
localized short term runoff issues given the rather stagnant and
high-quality moisture pool which will be in place. Flash flooding
will be a definite concern.

At 12Z on Tuesday...the mid/upper level flow pattern will feature a
deep longwave trough in the west with downstream large scale ridging
over the cntl/ern U.S. An important feature will be a
wayward/westward moving upper trough along the Gulf coast...and
building/strong positive height anomaly off the east coast
retrograding westward. From Tuesday to Friday...heights will
continue to earnestly rise over the Atlantic basin expanding west
thru the Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley which will force the
upper trough along the Gulf west to the lower Mississippi Valley.
Meanwhile...the longwave trough in the west will creep east through
the Northern Plains into the western Great Lakes by Friday. Next
weekend...the height falls/upper trough crossing the Great Lakes
will allow a cold front to sweep through the Ohio Valley...with
uncertainties on timing/amplitude that far off.

In the details...it will be an unsettled period to say the least
with daily chances of showers/storms. Chances will peak in the
afternoon/evening /tied to diurnal cycle/ given the moisture in
place and uncapped and easily perturbed boundary layer. There is
higher confidence that several weak shortwaves /one emanating out of
the Gulf upper trough and one moving in from the west/ will meet up
over the Ohio Valley Tuesday afternoon/night and bring a good chance
of showers/storms. PWATs will rapidly increase Tuesday from 1.75" in
the morning to 2.00"+ by afternoon. With weak tropospheric flows in
place...and noted/weak Corfidi vectors /upwind/ owing to a weak
/15kts/ swly low level flow...net storm motions may be very
slow/backbuilding/regenerative in nature. It will most certainly be
an environment supporting localized flash flooding with the
strongest cores...and this may continue well into the night beyond
the diurnal cycle thanks to weak shortwave forcing.

Somewhat lesser chances /but with still the same threats/ exist
Wed/Thu due to lack of shortwave forcing but it is tough to pick up
on subtle waves ejecting northeast out of the gulf coast upper
trough. Starting Friday and continuing into Saturday...the approach
of height falls and slightly stronger flow from the west will lead
to better coverage of showers/storms as PWATs remain in the 2.00 to
2.25"+ range.

In the GEFS plumes...nearly every member has 2.00" to 2.25" PWAT
from Tuesday through Saturday...and this period will be a
stuffy/stagnant/muggy period with dewpoints in the low/mid
70s...very little wind...and tropical downpours every
afternoon/evening. NAEFS/GEFS standardized anomalies and climate
percentiles are impressive...with 2-3 sigma PWATS almost a daily
occurrence over the ILN CWA which is in the >99% for the 30 year
climate record used in NAEFS probabilistic output. SPC sounding
climatology suggests the incoming airmass will threaten daily PWAT
records Tue-Sat and confirms a >99% type moisture profile in place.
Daily forecast model soundings /GFS/ exhibit classic heavy rain
characteristics with tall/skinny CAPE...weak wind flows...very high
warm cloud depths />5km/...PWATS > 2.00"+...and <10kt Corfidi
vector magnitudes.
14 Jul 2016
Day 3 slight risk in the plains and mention in the day 4-8 of severe continuing.
Attached Image

QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN/SRN
PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED
SPEED MAX/ MOVES THROUGH THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM
THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...UPPER PATTERN WILL
TREND MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTS NEWD AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS.

SURFACE PATTERN WILL LIKELY FEATURE A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH WITH
EVENTUAL SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ERN CO. A SURFACE LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM SE MT TOWARD N-CNTRL NEB. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE A FRONTAL ZONE AT THE
BASE OF THE HIGH EXTENDS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WWD THROUGH THE MID
MS VALLEY.

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NRN PLAINS. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS FOR DEWPOINTS TO BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS...DECREASING TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NRN ND. DEWPOINTS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER SE MT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
UPPER 50S WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXPECTED HERE DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AMIDST MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO
AROUND 40-50 KT AT 500 MB. AS A RESULT...A SUPERCELL MODE IS FAVORED
WITH THIS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS TOO
LOW TO DELINEATE ANY SIG AREAS WITH THIS FORECAST.

UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINEAR MCS APPEARS PROBABLE AS THE INITIAL
STORMS MOVE EWD INTO A MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THE LLJ
INCREASES.


Day 4-8
QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORTICITY MAX WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD -- 12Z/SUN. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT MAX
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. HOWEVER...OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO IS LOW.

AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS ON D5/MON...A DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST. MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE EXISTS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUT A BIT MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
IS NEEDED BEFORE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO OUTLOOK ANY AREAS.

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL
LIKELY COVER MUCH OF THE CONUS BY 12Z D7/WED. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ATOP MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NRN/NERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE /ROUGHLY FROM THE NRN PLAINS
SEWD TOWARDS THE MID MS VALLEY/ BUT GUIDANCE IS YET TO SHOW A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR TSTMS DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS REGION THROUGH
D8/THU.

..MOSIER.. 07/14/2016
16 Jun 2016
Next threat starts Saturday and continues into next week.

Day 3
Attached Image

QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG SURFACE
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA...INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WITHIN A NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT
WESTERLIES APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD. AS
THIS OCCURS...PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MAY ELONGATE
EASTWARD ALONG AN AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ON THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...THE REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW
MIGRATING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY DEFORMED/SHEARED WHILE CONTINUING INLAND ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA.

IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...A MODEST SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO/ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT PROBABLY WILL
STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...
MOIST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONTANA IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD PLUME OF VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHEARING UPPER IMPULSE...SEASONABLY STRONG
WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW /50+ KT AT 500 MB/ MAY OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS OFF THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR/EAST OF GREAT FALLS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SMALLER-SCALE AREAS OF ENHANCED
FORCING FOR ASCENT EMANATING FROM THE SHEARING UPPER IMPULSE...WHICH
STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. BUT SOME MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST
THAT THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPSCALE GROWING...LONG-LIVED/LONG TRACK
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH
MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY
NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR A SWATH OR TWO OF SEVERE SURFACE
GUSTS.

..KERR.. 06/16/2016



Day 4-8
QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGION APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT LATE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AFTER INITIALLY BEING
SUPPRESSED BY A SHEARING SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE...IT APPEARS THAT
RIDGING MAY REBUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE TROUGHING
DIGS DOWNSTREAM...FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID AND
NORTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS REGIME...THE RISK FOR AN ORGANIZED
STRONG/SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...DEVELOPING SATURDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THEREAFTER...A
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
SOME RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY/NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BE FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS...IN RESPONSE TO AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTIES
WITH ALL OF THIS...HOWEVER...REMAIN CONSIDERABLE...NOT ONLY IN THE
SYNOPTIC AND LARGER SCALE...BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY IN THE MESO
AND SMALLER SCALES. THIS RESULTS IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES REMAINING
BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

..KERR.. 06/16/2016
28 May 2016
Looks like this threat starts with the day 3 Slight Risk and SPC has possible risk into GL/OV by day 5/6.

Day 3
Attached Image

QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS
AND NWRN NEB...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO
THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

...N-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO SRN MN...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY OVERNIGHT
MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
AND MOVE EWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INVOKE MOISTURE TO STREAM
NWD ON SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS PROGGED BY
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER WLY/S OVERSPREADING
THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. ISOLD TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTERS MOVING E/SE ACROSS SD AND PERHAPS NEB DURING THE
EVENING AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN AN
ISOLD THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS.

...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL LIKELY FOCUS WIDELY-SPACED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNING NWD ON SLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S TO 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG
HEATING/MIXING OCCURS. STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY /SBCAPE 1500-3500 J/KG/. A BELT OF
STRONGER MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE LARGE BUOYANCY AND
SLY WINDS VEERING TO WLY WITH HEIGHT. YET...WEAK FORCING ALOFT IN
AREAS CASTS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON STORM DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION
FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SWD. HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY
LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE POTENTIAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOP AND
GROW UPSCALE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A SLY LLJ INTENSIFIES.


Day 4-8
QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF 15-PERCENT
PROBABILITY AREAS FOR THE DAY 4-6 /TUESDAY-THURSDAY/ PERIOD OWING IN
PART TO LIKELY UNRESOLVABLE MESOSCALE FACTORS THAT MAY EXERT A LARGE
INFLUENCE ON WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
NONETHELESS...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE N-CNTRL U.S. ON TUESDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND SOME
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THIS REGIME FEATURING THE
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
PERHAPS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A POTENTIAL STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK MAY DEVELOP FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD
ALONG/NEAR A COLD FRONT INTO THE OH-MS RIVER VALLEYS /DAYS 5-6/.
FARTHER S...MODEST MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW OVERTOP A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IN PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS MAY YIELD SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID-LEVEL LOW OPENS/WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS
EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES ON DAY 4 /TUESDAY/. YET...PREDICTABILITY
WITH THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO NOT
HIGHLIGHT AN AREA AT THIS TIME. BEYOND THE DAY 6 TIMEFRAME...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE IN THE WRN U.S. AND LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A LESS-FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
17 May 2016
SPC 4-8 day outlook mentions a new threat starting Saturday and continuing through at least Monday and probably beyond in which case the end date will likely need to be adjusted at some point.

QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016



DAY 5/SATURDAY...AS ADDITIONAL LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OCCURS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST ACROSS A
NORTH-SOUTH EXPANSE OF THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A MODESTLY MOIST AIR
MASS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST STATES ALONG/AHEAD OF A SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT.

DAYS 6/7 SUNDAY/MONDAY...AN INCREASINGLY SEVERE-CONDUCIVE PATTERN
FOR THE PLAINS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS THE WESTERN STATES TROUGH
CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSITIONS
NORTHWARD. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE
DAKOTAS/MN...AND AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN OK/TX.
Last Visitors


Yesterday, 12:04 AM


8 Aug 2016 - 17:52


30 Jul 2016 - 4:39


19 Jul 2016 - 15:41


17 Jul 2016 - 11:07

Comments
coach
like your posts!
15 Jan 2010 - 13:53

Friends
There are no friends to display.
RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 29th August 2016 - 09:39 AM