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snowlover2
Rank: F5 Superstorm
38 years old
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Dayton,OH
Born July-30-1976
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snowlover2

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20 Jul 2014
How do you do it? Doesn't want to work for me for some reason.
14 Jun 2014
New day 3 starts the next severe threat. Date changes as needed.
Attached Image

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB/SERN SD INTO IA
AND SWRN MN...

...SUMMARY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY ON MONDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEPART THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH SOME INDICATION OF A
WEAKER IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW AFFECTING THE NRN
PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALL THIS WILL BE PRECEDING A LARGER UPPER
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NWRN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER WRN NEB WITH
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BUILDING NWD DUE TO STRONG SLY
SFC WINDS. AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIE ROUGHLY FROM
SERN SD/NERN NEB INTO IA AND SRN MN BY AFTERNOON...WITH BOUTS OF
STORMS FOCUSED ON THIS BOUNDARY...MAINLY LATE. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND
SWD FROM THE SFC LOW...FROM CNTRL NEB INTO W TX. HEATING AND LIFT
NEAR THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT FROM NEB INTO
IA...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE.

...NERN NEB INTO CNTRL IA...SWRN MN AND SERN SD...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND NEAR
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN NEB AND SD BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY BUILDING INTO MN AND IA. MODELS SUGGEST A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF REDEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA WHERE WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST. THE
GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS WELL AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ON
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT
WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE INITIALLY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE BEFORE MERGING INTO AN MCS MOST LIKELY
AFTER 00Z. HAIL IS LIKELY TO BE VERY LARGE.


...WRN KS INTO WRN TX...
STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIR MASS ALONG
THE DRYLINE FROM WRN TX INTO WRN KS. WHILE THERE WILL BE LITTLE
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WITH NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES ALOFT...ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL FAVOR SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

..JEWELL.. 06/14/2014
22 May 2014
This is for the severe weather that started yesterday and will hang around the plains a few days.
21 Apr 2014
Day 4-8 outlook from SPC hinting at something potentrially significant this weekend especially in the plains.

QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY4-8 TIME PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THREE MAJOR SYNOPTIC-SCALE
COMPONENTS. THE FIRST BEING THE AMPLITUDE OF UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...2...SWD EXTENT OF SFC FRONT OVER THE PLAINS/MS
VALLEY...AND 3...AMPLITUDE OF SHORT WAVE/UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN
U.S.

WHILE STRONG CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY LINGER INTO THE DAY4 PERIOD
AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...LIMITED
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE 00Z/144-HR
ECMWF FORECAST WHICH SHARPENS A DRYLINE ACROSS KS...SWD INTO NWRN
TX. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS A BROAD...MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
CLASSIC SEVERE EVENT COULD UNFOLD ACROSS THIS REGION SATURDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF
THE SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY SUNDAY...AND LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF
STATES DAY8.


HOWEVER...GFS IS CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND BLOCKING HIGH OVER CNTRL CANADA FORCING A
DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONE SWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SFC
FRONT PLUNGES INTO NORTH TX BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EFFECTIVELY
UNDERCUTS STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF SWRN UPPER LOW. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WITHIN
UPSLOPE REGION OF NM COULD SUPPORT MEANINGFUL SEVERE. WHILE SEVERE
TSTMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF POLAR FRONT...FRONTAL POSITION
RAISES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PLACEMENT OF MOST ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT. FOR THIS REASON PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN
OUTLOOK THIS PERIOD.
6 Apr 2014
This threat started yesterday but nothing really happened. T-storm watch currently in Texas and OV might see some minor severe tomorrow.

Day 1
Attached Image

QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SUN APR 06 2014

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD IS A
SRN-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO NWRN MEXICO
WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. AN
ASSOCIATED 500-MB JET STREAK WILL STRENGTHEN TO 90-100 KT AS IT
EMERGES FROM THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT IN TANDEM WITH A LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM. IN
RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER-AIR SYSTEM...A SSWLY LLJ
WILL BROADEN AND INTENSIFY TO 50+ KT WHILE MIGRATING FROM THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS BY 07/12Z.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER TX COAST WILL DEEPEN
WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD INTO WRN PARTS OF KY/TN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH MS AND AL INTO TN WITH
THE ERN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTING MORE SLOWLY NWD THROUGH
PARTS OF GA AND SC. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE
ADVANCING EWD/SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...

A CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ONGOING AS OF MID MORNING FROM
PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL MS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LARGELY BEING FORCED BY WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING AT THE
TERMINUS OF THE LLJ ABOVE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. THIS REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD/NEWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

THE INLAND DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLJ WILL PROMOTE
THE POLEWARD FLUX OF A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS /I.E. PW VALUES OF
1.50-1.75 INCHES/ ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND MIGRATORY
SURFACE LOW WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN THE
EXPANDING WARM SECTOR.

INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH COUPLED
WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM/COLD FRONTS WILL FOSTER INITIAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SERN TX INTO SRN LA WITH THIS
ACTIVITY MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD/NEWD THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MS...AL
AND THE WRN FL PNHDL THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE COLOCATION OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED LOW AND MIDLEVEL WIND MAXIMA
WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...PARTICULARLY
FROM SERN LA THROUGH MS/AL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE MOIST/LOW LCL BOUNDARY LAYER AND AT
LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY
EF-2+/ AND WIND DAMAGE...NAMELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR.

...W-CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...

DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS COUPLED
WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH WRN TX. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS INTO THIS EVENING.
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coach
like your posts!
15 Jan 2010 - 13:53

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