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snowlover2
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Dayton,OH
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6 Apr 2014
This threat started yesterday but nothing really happened. T-storm watch currently in Texas and OV might see some minor severe tomorrow.

Day 1
Attached Image

QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SUN APR 06 2014

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD IS A
SRN-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO NWRN MEXICO
WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. AN
ASSOCIATED 500-MB JET STREAK WILL STRENGTHEN TO 90-100 KT AS IT
EMERGES FROM THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT IN TANDEM WITH A LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM. IN
RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER-AIR SYSTEM...A SSWLY LLJ
WILL BROADEN AND INTENSIFY TO 50+ KT WHILE MIGRATING FROM THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS BY 07/12Z.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER TX COAST WILL DEEPEN
WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD INTO WRN PARTS OF KY/TN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH MS AND AL INTO TN WITH
THE ERN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTING MORE SLOWLY NWD THROUGH
PARTS OF GA AND SC. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE
ADVANCING EWD/SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...

A CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ONGOING AS OF MID MORNING FROM
PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL MS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LARGELY BEING FORCED BY WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING AT THE
TERMINUS OF THE LLJ ABOVE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. THIS REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD/NEWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

THE INLAND DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLJ WILL PROMOTE
THE POLEWARD FLUX OF A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS /I.E. PW VALUES OF
1.50-1.75 INCHES/ ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND MIGRATORY
SURFACE LOW WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN THE
EXPANDING WARM SECTOR.

INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH COUPLED
WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM/COLD FRONTS WILL FOSTER INITIAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SERN TX INTO SRN LA WITH THIS
ACTIVITY MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD/NEWD THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MS...AL
AND THE WRN FL PNHDL THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE COLOCATION OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED LOW AND MIDLEVEL WIND MAXIMA
WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...PARTICULARLY
FROM SERN LA THROUGH MS/AL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE MOIST/LOW LCL BOUNDARY LAYER AND AT
LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY
EF-2+/ AND WIND DAMAGE...NAMELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR.

...W-CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...

DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS COUPLED
WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH WRN TX. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS INTO THIS EVENING.
31 Mar 2014
Looks like flooding might be an issue for some during the week. ILN hinting at it in the AFD.

HPC QPF
Attached Image


ILN AFD
QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
804 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2014



.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS MOISTURE
STARVED FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN FACT. WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR AREA WILL HELP TO BRING A QUICK WARM UP
INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE 60S
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...FROPA AROUND SUNRISE WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
RISING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY EVENING
AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW A MOIST AIRMASS
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...
THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN BEGIN TO TRANSITION
INTO A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
PRESENT...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL THEREFORE BE FORECASTING
CHANCE THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...AND JUST SHOWERS TO THE NORTH.

PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE INCREASING
PRESENCE OF GULF MOISTURE COULD BRING PWATS TO GREATER THAN 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OUT AHEAD OF
THIS LOW WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. PCPN SHOULD THEN START TO
BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD THROUGH LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WILL
LIKELY END UP WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTH. EXPECT A SIMILAR GRADIENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID
50S IN THE SOUTH.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN FROM LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW FOR THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT FARTHER NORTH...PUSHING MOST OF OUR
AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A LOWER END SEVERE THREAT DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BE PULLED UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN DEPEND ON HOW FAR THE WARM FRONT GETS
AND THEN ALSO HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE...DROPPING BACK TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWEST. FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE HEADING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK GIVEN SEVERAL POSSIBLE WAVES OF PCPN AND THE FACT THAT
VEGETATION HAS NOT QUITE STARTED TO GREEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE THREAT IN THE HWO
PRODUCT
.

EXPECT PCPN TO TAPER OFF TO A FEW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
WORK ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SUPPOSE A
FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT PREFER TO
LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER 12Z ECMWF AS IT HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS. THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND ON
EXACTLY HOW TO HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PCPN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
CHANCE POPS HEADING INTO MONDAY.
12 Mar 2014
Next storm to track. 12z GFS and i believe Euro keep this mainly across the southern plains to the south. 12z GGEM tries to bring this up to the OV. 18z NAM @84 looks decent in the plains so not sure if it would try to go to OV or stay south.
18 Feb 2014
A little surprized there was no thread for this but i guess everyone is paying attention to the upcoming severe/flooding threat. All 3 models show a system during this period with the Euro being the farthest south keeping snowfall from the plains to along and south of the Ohio River. Doesn't look to be a major snow right now.
13 Feb 2014
Most of us still have a really good amount of snow on the ground and some of us will add to it over this weekend not to mention a rock solid ground with how extremely cold its been. With a pretty big warmup coming and what right now appears to be a potentially strong west GLC, water will have nowhere to go with the possible heavy rain and thunderstorms and thus flooding will likely occur for a widespread area.
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coach
like your posts!
15 Jan 2010 - 13:53

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