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snowlover2
Rank: F5 Superstorm
39 years old
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Dayton,OH
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snowlover2

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17 May 2016
SPC 4-8 day outlook mentions a new threat starting Saturday and continuing through at least Monday and probably beyond in which case the end date will likely need to be adjusted at some point.

QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016



DAY 5/SATURDAY...AS ADDITIONAL LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OCCURS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST ACROSS A
NORTH-SOUTH EXPANSE OF THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A MODESTLY MOIST AIR
MASS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST STATES ALONG/AHEAD OF A SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT.

DAYS 6/7 SUNDAY/MONDAY...AN INCREASINGLY SEVERE-CONDUCIVE PATTERN
FOR THE PLAINS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS THE WESTERN STATES TROUGH
CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSITIONS
NORTHWARD. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE
DAKOTAS/MN...AND AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN OK/TX.
24 Mar 2016
I'm really surprised CV hasn't started this yet.

SPC has a brief mention in the 4-8 day outlook.
QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DAY 4/SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-SOUTH AND TN/OH VALLEYS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL CONUS ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY DAYS 4-5. REGARDING THIS TROUGH...SOME TIMING/PHASING
DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
/SLOWER/ CONTINUING TO EXHIBIT GREATER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AS
COMPARED TO FASTER 00Z GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
HAVE ACCESS TO SOMEWHAT RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO THE
TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHILE
AMPLE FORCING/STRONG WIND FIELD WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SEVERE RISK
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TN/OH VALLEYS ON SUNDAY/DAY 4.

AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO DAY 5/MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS FL. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE VARIABILITY PRECLUDES
A GRAPHICAL RISK DELINEATION...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

THEREAFTER...AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
MIDWEST AROUND DAYS 7-8 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

..GUYER.. 03/24/2016


Some of the med more knowledgeable posters on American are saying that the GFS is showing potential for
a big outbreak on Thursday 3/31.

American
27 Feb 2016
Really surprised no one started this yet. Looks like pretty good agreement on the 0z runs for a 3-6" event for IL/IN/OH.
12 Feb 2016
Models agree on a clipper moving through after the bigger storm moves east.
8 Jan 2016
Precip has started in the southern plains thus this thread now started.
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coach
like your posts!
15 Jan 2010 - 13:53

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