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snowlover2
Rank: F5 Superstorm
38 years old
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Dayton,OH
Born July-30-1976
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Joined: 30-December 08
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Viewing Forum: Current Weather - United States
Local Time: Sep 2 2014, 05:17 PM
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snowlover2

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11 Aug 2014
There's a see text tioday and now a day 2 slight risk for the eastern half of Ohio.
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Had a really nice downpour yesterday and there are numerous storms around today.
20 Jul 2014
How do you do it? Doesn't want to work for me for some reason.
14 Jun 2014
New day 3 starts the next severe threat. Date changes as needed.
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QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB/SERN SD INTO IA
AND SWRN MN...

...SUMMARY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY ON MONDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEPART THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH SOME INDICATION OF A
WEAKER IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW AFFECTING THE NRN
PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALL THIS WILL BE PRECEDING A LARGER UPPER
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NWRN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER WRN NEB WITH
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BUILDING NWD DUE TO STRONG SLY
SFC WINDS. AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIE ROUGHLY FROM
SERN SD/NERN NEB INTO IA AND SRN MN BY AFTERNOON...WITH BOUTS OF
STORMS FOCUSED ON THIS BOUNDARY...MAINLY LATE. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND
SWD FROM THE SFC LOW...FROM CNTRL NEB INTO W TX. HEATING AND LIFT
NEAR THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT FROM NEB INTO
IA...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE.

...NERN NEB INTO CNTRL IA...SWRN MN AND SERN SD...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND NEAR
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN NEB AND SD BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY BUILDING INTO MN AND IA. MODELS SUGGEST A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF REDEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA WHERE WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST. THE
GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS WELL AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ON
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT
WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE INITIALLY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE BEFORE MERGING INTO AN MCS MOST LIKELY
AFTER 00Z. HAIL IS LIKELY TO BE VERY LARGE.


...WRN KS INTO WRN TX...
STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIR MASS ALONG
THE DRYLINE FROM WRN TX INTO WRN KS. WHILE THERE WILL BE LITTLE
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WITH NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES ALOFT...ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL FAVOR SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

..JEWELL.. 06/14/2014
22 May 2014
This is for the severe weather that started yesterday and will hang around the plains a few days.
21 Apr 2014
Day 4-8 outlook from SPC hinting at something potentrially significant this weekend especially in the plains.

QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY4-8 TIME PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THREE MAJOR SYNOPTIC-SCALE
COMPONENTS. THE FIRST BEING THE AMPLITUDE OF UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...2...SWD EXTENT OF SFC FRONT OVER THE PLAINS/MS
VALLEY...AND 3...AMPLITUDE OF SHORT WAVE/UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN
U.S.

WHILE STRONG CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY LINGER INTO THE DAY4 PERIOD
AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...LIMITED
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE 00Z/144-HR
ECMWF FORECAST WHICH SHARPENS A DRYLINE ACROSS KS...SWD INTO NWRN
TX. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS A BROAD...MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
CLASSIC SEVERE EVENT COULD UNFOLD ACROSS THIS REGION SATURDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF
THE SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY SUNDAY...AND LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF
STATES DAY8.


HOWEVER...GFS IS CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND BLOCKING HIGH OVER CNTRL CANADA FORCING A
DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONE SWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SFC
FRONT PLUNGES INTO NORTH TX BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EFFECTIVELY
UNDERCUTS STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF SWRN UPPER LOW. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WITHIN
UPSLOPE REGION OF NM COULD SUPPORT MEANINGFUL SEVERE. WHILE SEVERE
TSTMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF POLAR FRONT...FRONTAL POSITION
RAISES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PLACEMENT OF MOST ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT. FOR THIS REASON PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN
OUTLOOK THIS PERIOD.
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27 Aug 2014 - 22:41


27 Jul 2014 - 12:16


26 Jul 2014 - 20:36


26 May 2014 - 21:59


25 Apr 2014 - 19:30

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coach
like your posts!
15 Jan 2010 - 13:53

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