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snowlover2
Rank: F5 Superstorm
39 years old
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Dayton,OH
Born July-30-1976
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snowlover2

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24 Mar 2016
I'm really surprised CV hasn't started this yet.

SPC has a brief mention in the 4-8 day outlook.
QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DAY 4/SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-SOUTH AND TN/OH VALLEYS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL CONUS ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY DAYS 4-5. REGARDING THIS TROUGH...SOME TIMING/PHASING
DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
/SLOWER/ CONTINUING TO EXHIBIT GREATER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AS
COMPARED TO FASTER 00Z GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
HAVE ACCESS TO SOMEWHAT RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO THE
TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHILE
AMPLE FORCING/STRONG WIND FIELD WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SEVERE RISK
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TN/OH VALLEYS ON SUNDAY/DAY 4.

AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO DAY 5/MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS FL. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE VARIABILITY PRECLUDES
A GRAPHICAL RISK DELINEATION...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

THEREAFTER...AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
MIDWEST AROUND DAYS 7-8 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

..GUYER.. 03/24/2016


Some of the med more knowledgeable posters on American are saying that the GFS is showing potential for
a big outbreak on Thursday 3/31.

American
27 Feb 2016
Really surprised no one started this yet. Looks like pretty good agreement on the 0z runs for a 3-6" event for IL/IN/OH.
12 Feb 2016
Models agree on a clipper moving through after the bigger storm moves east.
8 Jan 2016
Precip has started in the southern plains thus this thread now started.
1 Jan 2016
This thread will be for the storm the models show developing in the south and moving toward the OV.

0z GFS moves to KY and transfers.
Attached Image


0z Euro is a bit quicker but goes to WV and transfers.
Attached Image


0z GGEM not showing much yet.
Last Visitors


26 Apr 2016 - 14:43


22 Apr 2016 - 17:14


19 Apr 2016 - 20:57


1 Apr 2016 - 15:06


26 Feb 2016 - 17:05

Comments
coach
like your posts!
15 Jan 2010 - 13:53

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