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6 Nov 2015
12z and 18z model runs are in and the operational models show a potential winter storm in the making for the November 13-15th period of this month. The NAO dives towards neutral and the AO dives towards neutral as well around the 15-16th and this pattern change could have a storm at the beginning of it to signal the pattern change. Models are signaling a change to more coastals originating from the GOM region with moisture laden systems heading northeastward. This is the pattern that could excite some people in the interior Mid Atlantic and Northeastern US.
9 Oct 2015
It's simply a period of time in which models are beginning to focus on for a potential cold period of time and we could see a period of snow/rain event to I95 corridor in New England come the 16th or 17th. There is an additional piece of 500mb energy that dips through the NE trough behind the main storm that gives us the cold shot, and both EURO and GFS show this cold snap and potential secondary storm. Still a lot of time left before we can see this come to fruition. Discuss.
29 Dec 2014
12z EURO, GGEM and 18z GFS and GFS parallel have a dangerous clipper situation unfolding within the northern jet stream flow over the North American continent impacting SNE between hours 216-240, or January 7-8th 2015. Too early for details as the storm is out at day 9 so we will see what happens in future runs, but I think since this is our first clipper and non phasing system with the southern stream, purely northern stream energy it will be plenty cold enough for snowfall this go around north of 39N. Hopefully the track behaves. Teleconnections don't necessarily predict a good pattern normally for snowstorms, but they are not 100% correct, especially the CPC forecasts, but nonetheless models are showing a favorable pattern for a good sized clipper system coming through the jet stream flow. Stay tuned!
9 Dec 2014
GFS and GFS parallel and ensembles all show a stormy period coming up. A nor'easter is possible, EURO is not in range which goes to show how far away this system is, but I thought since some have mentioned this storm already that we make a thread for it anyways. There is cold air available but the GFS operational model is out to sea with it while the parallel GFS shows a direct hit. Still almost two weeks out.
9 Dec 2014
This is the 12z GFS valid for December 17th at 6z or 10pm on the 16th. One can see with this image that there is a strong anomalous 500mb ridge axis over the Rockies into Southern Canada. This ridge is strong enough given the strong +PNA status and allows the downstream trough over the Great Lakes to amplify and phase with the weaker southern stream system seen as 500mb vorticity max entering the northeastern US causing a strong surface low to develop near Cape Cod, MA.
This second image is the 168 hour 00z EURO model run valid today at 00z December 9th 2014.
Mainly this model run does not show the northern stream digging far enough south, but can be seen in the position just west of the GFS at hour 168. It will be interesting to see what happens with today's 12z run at hour 168 so that the panels match up time wise because the 12z GFS is 12 hours later with the trough positioning, which is why I was originally going to post this new topic after the 12z runs are completely out, but I did so ahead of time because we have ensemble mean support, however they are too far east at this moment, still roughly 8 days away.
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