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29 Dec 2014
12z EURO, GGEM and 18z GFS and GFS parallel have a dangerous clipper situation unfolding within the northern jet stream flow over the North American continent impacting SNE between hours 216-240, or January 7-8th 2015. Too early for details as the storm is out at day 9 so we will see what happens in future runs, but I think since this is our first clipper and non phasing system with the southern stream, purely northern stream energy it will be plenty cold enough for snowfall this go around north of 39N. Hopefully the track behaves. Teleconnections don't necessarily predict a good pattern normally for snowstorms, but they are not 100% correct, especially the CPC forecasts, but nonetheless models are showing a favorable pattern for a good sized clipper system coming through the jet stream flow. Stay tuned!
GFS and GFS parallel and ensembles all show a stormy period coming up. A nor'easter is possible, EURO is not in range which goes to show how far away this system is, but I thought since some have mentioned this storm already that we make a thread for it anyways. There is cold air available but the GFS operational model is out to sea with it while the parallel GFS shows a direct hit. Still almost two weeks out.
This is the 12z GFS valid for December 17th at 6z or 10pm on the 16th. One can see with this image that there is a strong anomalous 500mb ridge axis over the Rockies into Southern Canada. This ridge is strong enough given the strong +PNA status and allows the downstream trough over the Great Lakes to amplify and phase with the weaker southern stream system seen as 500mb vorticity max entering the northeastern US causing a strong surface low to develop near Cape Cod, MA.
This second image is the 168 hour 00z EURO model run valid today at 00z December 9th 2014.
Mainly this model run does not show the northern stream digging far enough south, but can be seen in the position just west of the GFS at hour 168. It will be interesting to see what happens with today's 12z run at hour 168 so that the panels match up time wise because the 12z GFS is 12 hours later with the trough positioning, which is why I was originally going to post this new topic after the 12z runs are completely out, but I did so ahead of time because we have ensemble mean support, however they are too far east at this moment, still roughly 8 days away.
GFS and most models forecast a 500mb ridge to develop over the OH valley pumping heights to the northeast along the ridge axis. temps could warm up to about 15-20 degrees above normal across the MId Atlantic states, while in New England its more in the form of 5-10 degrees above normal given that the flow is flatter the further north one travels. It will be short-lived however given that a strong northern stream disturbance moves through the flow across Canada and ends the warm up towards the 17th or 18th of DEC. Chances of a white Christmas increase the further north one lives, especially north of 40N latitude. 12z GFS, GFS ensemble mean, EURO ensemble mean, GGEM ensemble mean all show this warm up and the EURO model does too. Just some differ on the evolution of the breakdown of the ridge.
28 Nov 2014
Warm air advection pattern could ensue across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with a surface low moving south of the region. A cold Canadian polar high pressure center will be positioned to the northwest pumping on colder air into the region, promoting a mainly snow event.
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