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Mid Tn. Man
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Mid Tn. Man

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26 Apr 2014



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER AR...FAR NRN LA/NERN TX/ERN
OK/SWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
CONUS...

...SUMMARY...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL STATES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES APPEARS CENTERED FROM THE
ARK-LA-TEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES
AT 12Z/SUN WILL SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS NEB. AN
ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET /AOA 50 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL
PERSIST FROM THE DESERT SW...CURLING NWD FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE
MO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING EWD ACROSS THE CORN BELT TO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY. A DRYLINE/WEAKENING PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
REACH ERN KS/OK INTO DEEP S TX IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

...MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GULF COAST...
OVERALL SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A POSSIBLE OUTBREAK AMIDST
CONTINUED LIMITING FACTORS.

THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE INCREASINGLY BROAD/MOIST BENEATH AN EML WITH
LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S INTO THE LOWER/MID-MS VALLEYS AND
ARKLATEX BY EARLY EVENING SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH INITIALLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SUN FROM PARTS OF IA TO
OK. ALTHOUGH THE BULK THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED...IT SHOULD
TRANSITION TO BECOMING SURFACE-BASED AS DOWNSTREAM DIURNAL HEATING
ENSUES. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS LEAD CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPS EWD.

THE MOST INTENSE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION...THERE REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION /ESPECIALLY WITH NRN
EXTENT/. NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AT LEAST
MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG INTO NERN KS AS
INSOLATION OCCURS ALONG THE DRYLINE AMIDST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...ROBUST MID-LEVEL DCVA WOULD FOSTER
SCATTERED STORMS FORMING BY MID-AFTERNOON INVOF KS/MO BORDER.
ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE LARGELY MERIDIONAL
HERE...BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WOULD AID IN SUFFICIENT CURVATURE TO
THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL /SOME
SIGNIFICANT/ AND AT LEAST A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE. PARTS OF
THIS REGION MAY BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT
APPEARS STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION WILL NOT BE TOO
DETRIMENTAL TO THE AFTERNOON THREAT.

FARTHER S...A MORE VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EXIST S
OF ANY EARLY DAY CONVECTION /INVOF THE ARKLATEX/. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO THE 80S/90S ALONG/W OF THE DRYLINE IN
TX...MLCAPE SHOULD REACH 2500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF IT. HODOGRAPHS
APPEAR QUITE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN THE
MOST ROBUST WITH THE CO-LOCATION OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND LARGE
CURVING HODOGRAPHS. OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGER KINEMATIC
FIELDS WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER EAST /CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/. BUT WITH THE DRYLINE STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NERN
TX SUN NIGHT...TRAINING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY WARRANT
AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.





DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR NRN/CNTRL MS...WRN TN...FAR
NERN LA/ERN AR/NWRN AL/SWRN KY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE CNTRL
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS
WITH AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /AOA 80 KT AT 500 MB/ ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EJECTING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-SOUTH AND CONFLUENCE OF MS/OH RIVERS BY MON AFTERNOON. SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MO VALLEY...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED EWD OVER THE MIDWEST. COMPOSITE DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO TX GULF COAST ON MON
AFTERNOON.

...MIDWEST TO CNTRL GULF COAST...
A PLUME OF 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE ESTABLISHED FROM THE WARM
FRONT IN THE MIDWEST S/SWWD TO THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST AND PERSIST
AMIDST STRONG LOW-LEVEL S/SWLYS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT 12Z/MON FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO MID-SOUTH...ROBUST
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR IN CONVECTIVE-FREE AREAS TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST MODERATE BUOYANCY OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON.
LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG OWING TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SPEED MAX. THIS CO-LOCATION WITH THE ESTABLISHED WARM
SECTOR YIELDS A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE MOST CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR FOR HIGH-END SEVERE RISK APPEARS
CENTERED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO MID-SOUTH. WIDESPREAD
STORMS APPEAR PROBABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY EMANATING FROM
REGENERATIVE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ALONG THE DRYLINE/CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 50 KT AND SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...SETUP COULD YIELD SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WITH
STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL...EVOLVING INTO BOWS AND WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS.




DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

VALID 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MULTI-DAY SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERSISTENT
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO D4/TUE
AS THE LAST IN A SERIES OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA EJECTS
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG
KINEMATIC FIELDS OVERSPREADING A GULF WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. THE BREADTH OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROBABLY
BE CONFINED BY WIDESPREAD ANTECEDENT CONVECTION ON D3.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT/EFFECTIVE DRYLINE. THE
CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE RISK
FOCUSED FROM THE CNTRL OH VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST.

OVERALL KINEMATIC FIELDS SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENING STATE ON D5/WED
AND BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM GREATER BUOYANCY AS THE FRONT
ACCELERATES EWD. NEVERTHELESS...ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
EVIDENT FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC SWD TO
THE SOUTHEAST...LIKELY YIELDING EVENTUAL SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION.
12 Dec 2013
Potential,but a long ways out



Attached Image
8 Dec 2013
Attached Image


Attached Image


Possible ZR,IP,SN,RN
30 Nov 2013
Slow moving boundary will bring some heavy rains into parts of the SE.Depending how much cold air filters in there could be periods of zr,ip and sn on the back end in some parts.

Attached Image
26 Nov 2013


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 575
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 950 AM UNTIL
500 PM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO 80 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
Last Visitors


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2 Mar 2013 - 18:01


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27 Jan 2013 - 12:14


11 Jan 2013 - 19:24


27 Dec 2012 - 20:59

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