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elder05
Rank: F5 Superstorm
35 years old
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Grimsby, ontario, can
Born Mar-30-1979
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Joined: 30-January 09
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Last Seen: 18th March 2014 - 03:38 PM
Local Time: Jul 24 2014, 11:42 PM
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elder05

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19 Dec 2012
on 3 consecutive runs now.

12Z GFS shows some light snow entering southern ontario Christmas eve, how perfect. Important to note, the ecmwf is colder and dryer (no snow) we'll see what the 12Z says this aft.

22 Oct 2012
Hey all!

Just watching a potentially developing situation unfold...

Sandy is indeed forming south of jamaica right now, and could be a depression by the end of the day. Sandy will begin moving north after some rather benign movement today. waters over 30 C and low wind shear should enhance further development.

after it's move northward, will need to be monitored over the coming days.

Ok it’s farfetched at this point but certainly looks intriguing. ECMWF absolutely slams the NE coast (new Jersey) with a 955 mb low…GEM not far behind. GFS has a fish storm with no real phasing of would be Sandy and the polar jet like the others.

Euro does seem cold enough for snow for parts of Ontario as it pulls the system inland and retrogrades towards NY State…hmmmm, tropical snows?

Something to watch over the next few days

Corey
29 Feb 2012
on the foot steps of our current system is another system originating in the southern plains. This storm has the potential to be a very strong and dynamic system.

Cyclogenisis will take place, as mentioned, in the southern plains and slide NE into the western great lakes. Upper trough to our west, and a upper level jet to our south will advect very warm, and unstable air into southern ontario. surface temps friday could reach into the teens for many area's, especially in the SW.

Increasing instability ahead of the FROPA will usher in a pretty unstable air mass for this time of year, which will lead to the potential development of thunderstorm activity, an event typically slated for April as opposed to the beginning of March.

let's start with the SPC convective outlook...note, this is severe probability...albeit only a very slight risk, it's worth noting due to the timing of the year.



NAM Cape values...approaching 2000 j/kg to our SW...the day before...



NAM CAPE values worth noting saturday. very low, but remember this is surface based cape, which is rare for this time of year, hence the possibility of some storms in the SW approaching severe. for some reason the image isn't loading, and i gotta go, but SB Capes around 500 j/kg for southern ontario...


i don't have much time for anymore info now, but i will try and post as this develops. one more thing to keep an eye on is the development of possible warning criteria winds after the fropa...
27 Jan 2012
Surprised no one has posted anything about this little feature...Sure there's not a lot of snow with it, it's a pretty dynamic little storm meteorologically speaking speaking.

it's a pretty potent shortwave that's going to bring some pretty strong winds and some snow. Very tiht pressure gradient around this SLP.

One thing to watch though (of course) the 925 mb temps warming slightly which could translate into mixing issues. A lot depends on the exact track, but as of now, i'm thinking plain snow, with perhaps blowing snow and a light accumulation. (see SWS below) someone else may want to post some images? Also i'm assuming EC is referring to the eastern shores as opposed to the western shores of huron....

747
WOCN11 CWTO 271037
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 5:37 AM EST FRIDAY 27 JANUARY 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= CITY OF TORONTO
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON
=NEW= ELGIN
=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
=NEW= SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
=NEW= DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
=NEW= OXFORD - BRANT
=NEW= NIAGARA
=NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON
=NEW= HALTON - PEEL
=NEW= YORK - DURHAM
=NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
=NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
=NEW= GREY - BRUCE
=NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
=NEW= BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND =NEW= KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD =NEW= PORT CARLING - PORT SEVERN =NEW= BRACEBRIDGE - GRAVENHURST =NEW= BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET
GODERICH - BLUEWATER - SOUTHERN HURON COUNTY
WINGHAM - BLYTH - NORTHERN HURON COUNTY
TOWN OF PARRY SOUND - ROSSEAU - KILLBEAR PARK
HUNTSVILLE - BAYSVILLE.

A BLUSTERY SATURDAY.


---------------------------------------------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ENDED FOR:
OXTONGUE LAKE - FORT IRWIN - NORTHERN HALIBURTON COUNTY
PETAWAWA - PEMBROKE - COBDEN
ALGONQUIN.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE AMERICAN MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 5 CM RANGE ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 CM NEAR THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 50 KM/HOUR WITH GUSTS TO 70 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SATURDAY EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL REGIONS. HIGHER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKE SHORELINES. THE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LOW VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW IN SOME AREAS, MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA

END

8 Mar 2011
This time frame interests me. all i'm gonna say...total precip on the GFS for this timeframe. Taken from the 00Z...mostly snow. It's been shown for the last few runs now...just something i'm a weeee little bit curious about...but we'll see smile.gif

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