Sept. 30th - Oct. 1st Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather

Anyone seen the duzy of a system we got comin in late next week...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav.html

if there's enough instability this will be something to watch..feel free to make comments

Day 4-8 finally hinting severe weather?

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 140834
SPC AC 140834

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2009

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS -- WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE EVENT -- ARE FORECAST THROUGH DAY 5-6 /I.E. FRI.
AND SAT. SEPT. 18-19/...AFTER WHICH SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THOUGH SOME
HINTS THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE FROM DAY 6
ONWARD...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW ATTM. UNTIL THEN...SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST...AS SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
ALOFT KEEPS THE MUCH OF THE U.S. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LONGWAVE
MEAN RIDGING. GIVEN THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
GUIDANCE BEYOND...NO SEVERE THREAT AREAS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED THIS
FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 09/14/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


maybe ... we can finally get some severe weather action..