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“Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get,” Both have always and will always be changing.
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NorEaster07
Rank: F5 Superstorm
41 years old
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SW Coastal CT
Born Dec-17-1974
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Local Time: Feb 10 2016, 09:19 PM
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NorEaster07

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20 Nov 2015
Snow breaking out across SD, NE, and Iowa now.

Good luck, stay safe, and have fun!

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The Synopsis

QUOTE
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EST Fri Nov 20 2015

***Significant snowfall from Central Plains to Great Lakes***

With plenty of cold air in place across the north-central U.S., the first
significant snow storm of the season is expected to materialize from
Nebraska to Michigan. A low pressure system exiting the Rockies early
Friday is forecast to develop further as it tracks across the central U.S.
and eventually towards the Great Lakes region. A wide band of moderate to
heavy snow is expected north of the low, with the heaviest amounts from
eastern Nebraska, through Iowa, and extending eastward to central Michigan
by Saturday afternoon. In areas where the heaviest snow bands set up,
amounts on the order of 6 to 12 inches are likely, with widespread 4 to 8
inch amounts.


NWS Chicago

QUOTE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
608 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015


A VERY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC EARLY SEASON STORM SYSTEM IS IN THE WORKS
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM...GENERALLY TAKING THE
SURFACE LOW...AND ACCOMPANYING 700 MB LOW ALONG A VERY HEAVY SNOW
FAVORABLE TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL
THAT STRONG...SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER HINTING AT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.


9 Nov 2015
Coastal storm from Gulf coming up with some rain.

QUOTE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
653 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015

ALL NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE H5 PATTERN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE NAM HOLDS ON TO A CUTOFF
LOW ALOFT WHEREAS THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE WEAKENS INTO AN UPPER
TROUGH. THIS IS RESULTING IN THE NAM`S SFC LOW TRACKING DIRECTLY
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. IT CONTINUES TO BE DISCOUNTED.

REMAINING
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PASSES S AND E OF LONG
ISLAND
...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN STRENGTH AND
EXACT TRACK. GFS IS THE FURTHEST OFFSHORE...PASSING OUTSIDE THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK...THE EC PASSING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND THE GEFS
MEAN IS BETWEEN THE TWO SOLNS. THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS
ALSO UNCERTAIN AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW REMAIN PRIMARILY S AND E
OF THE AREA. IT IS EXPECTED TO RAIN...HOWEVER POTENTIALLY NOT AS
MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.


Future radar loop. Looks like a bad frame in there but you can see the storm moving in. Rain starts Tuesday afternoon/Evening in New England

30 Oct 2015
Weak storm coming from the South, exiting around Virginia and out to sea

NAM18z keeps it dry north of NYC

Monday morning

Attached Image
12 Oct 2015
Lets post projections, forecasts and OBS in this thread for the cold and possible snows for the northern tier Northeast. This other thread will be for the storm

Quick history.. GFS was on this Cold blast since 10-12 days out and became very consistent while Euro did not agree. Euro finally agreed on the 9th and all models now have this coldest air of the season coming down.

Euro12z 850mb temps
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PNA/NAO

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5 Feb 2015
An arctic front passed today bringing some very cold temps and wind chills, but its next week that has everyone's attention.

Best quote of the day.

"GFS and Euro are both showing "Dennis Quaid hiking up I-95 to save Jake Gyllenhaal" levels of cold around Valentine's Day. Isn't winter fun?"

https://twitter.com/WeatherNut27/status/563...2222849/photo/1
Last Visitors


25 Jan 2016 - 19:28


13 Dec 2015 - 9:41


21 Nov 2015 - 0:03


14 Nov 2015 - 14:15


13 Nov 2015 - 23:03

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RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 10th February 2016 - 09:19 PM