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NorEaster07
Rank: F5 Superstorm
41 years old
Male
SW Coastal CT
Born Dec-17-1974
Interests
Season Snow Totals:

2007-08 - 21"
2008-09 - 41"
2009-10 - 39.4"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
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Joined: 10-August 09
Profile Views: 33,843*
Last Seen: Private
Local Time: Oct 1 2016, 01:12 PM
15,630 posts (6 per day)
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NorEaster07

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26 Sep 2016
One of my favorite atmospheric features coming down and looks to meander across the regions..
Hopefully will be able to chip away at some drought areas..

QUOTE
National Weather Service State College PA
552 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will move through quickly later this afternoon and
early tonight. After a dry day or two, the forecast becomes rather
wet with a cut off upper low .


.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

Wind out of the west/southwest and temps will be rather normal,
allowing things to get right back to dry. But, this may
(probably) will not last long.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The mid week period will bring the large upper level low through
the Great Lakes and down into the Ohio Valley. The low will
slowly progress eastward with model PWATS increasing through the
latter half of the week
. Couple this with the Southwesterly flow
and will allow for an increase of POPS Through the second half of
the week and into the weekend. This will make the forecast a
little milder at night and slightly cooler in the day, but very
nearly normal. Have kept up with the overall trend of increasing
POPs for the latter half of the week and into the weekend. The
upper low is currently progged to lift northeast, but probably not
until then end of the long term period.
15 Sep 2016
Just to have somewhere to put our forecasts and OBSs instead of in the Drought thread.. Hopefully we get some good rains in Southern New England and drought areas.


A front will interact with Tropical moisture from remnants of Julia.

Dewpoints rise as well to near 70 which will create more instability which means more embedded rains.

QUOTE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
347 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2016


Sunday into Sunday night ...

Approaching trough and associated frontal boundary begin to advect
and interact with tropical moisture along with some interaction from
the remnants of Julia
. Frontal convergence coupled with modest upper
level jet streak should provide sufficient forcing for ascent to
yield at least scattered showers if not numerous at times. Will have
to watch this closely as there are some signs of a PRE (Predecessor
Rainfall Event...however jet streak aloft is not that anomalous
along with frontal boundary lacking baroclinicity. Thus weak signal
for a PRE but worth watching how system evolves.

Dew pts rising into the mid to upper 60s /possibly near 70/ will
yield modest SB instability of 500 to 1000 j/kg. Thus isolated T-
storms possible
along with a few strong storms possible as deep
layer shear increases to 30-35 kt yielding. As previous forecaster
noted...0-1km shear increases to 20 kt along with high dew pts
yielding low LCLs. Hence very low risk of a brief spin-up. In
addition with PWATs climbing to near 2" and dew pts 65 to 70 coupled
with modest frontal convergence and synoptic scale lift...heavy rain
threat exist. Otherwise it will be a warm and humid day with highs
75 to 80.

Monday ...

Mid level trough and associated frontal boundary moving across the
region
.
Thus risk for leftover showers and T-storms early and
especially over RI and eastern MA. Typical bias at this time range
with 12Z GEFS and GFS faster than 12z ECMWF with trough departure.
Still warm and humid.


http://www.weather.gov/bgm/productText
5 Jul 2016
Just when we thought a La Nina dry drought would be the main story...here we are with Storm #3 now within 2 weeks time. Looks like a wet Thursday-Friday for Northeast

GFS12z

Attached Image
20 Jun 2016
Looks like a Clipper Style.

Green showing up is a welcome site. June 1 - 20 only 1.09" at Bridgeport. Least amount since 2005 for the period. It's been a dry pattern recent weeks.

Frontal Rains tomorrow then ... Looks like a Storm coming down with rain Wed-Thursday as the Jet digs down in the East. Euro Ensembles are further south so New England misses the rains. GFS is north with it.





Some discussions::

NWS Boston:

QUOTE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
720 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

Longwave trof will gradually deepen and dig connected vortex
centered just south of Ungava Bay.

Tue night into Wed night...
Trof continues to settle across the northeast with H5 temps
dropping below -15C and strong cyclonic flow. This will lead to a
continuation of cloud cover

A second shortwave, currently wrapped
in the PACNW vortex will be entering this flow and is expected to
be catalyst for cyclogenesis of the mid Atlantic along this
stalled frontal boundary.


NWS Philly

QUOTE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
652 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

**Dry pattern across our area this month looks to continue through
at least Wednesday**


NWS NY

QUOTE
National Weather Service New York NY
725 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

Next threat for unsettled weather looks to be Thursday into Thursday
eve with an approaching low pressure system in response to earlier
mentioned shortwave energy. Models have all been signaling this
system for the past couple of days...but still some uncertainty on
track of low pressure.
8 Jun 2016
April 9-11 MidAtl/NE Cold Blast

May 14-16 Cold Shot

And here we are again with even chances for some snow at the mountain peaks of NY,VT, NH.. I left Mid Atlantic out of title.. Think the well below normal is for more north of Philly

Posting entire BTV discussion because it's just so detailed and interesting.

QUOTE
National Weather Service Burlington VT
317 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2016

As of 210 PM EDT Wednesday...Unseasonably cool and mostly cloudy
conditions to continue through the next 24-30 hours. Broad mid-
upper tropospheric trough in place across SERN Canada/New England
with deep closed 500mb low centered across New Brunswick this
afternoon. Several embedded mid-level vort centers are moving
through the cyclonic/nw flow regime. The first is passing across
NJ/sern NY this afternoon, and is associated with just a
few/isold light rain showers across s-central VT on nrn fringe of
the system. These showers will tend to diminish/move east of VT
after 21-22Z. The next shortwave trough is across swrn Quebec, and
will track sewd across VT during the overnight hours. While there
are some breaks in the clouds this afternoon, looking for
conditions trending overcast after sunset areawide.

Should see some light orographic precipitation develop across
both the nrn Adirondacks and nrn Green mountains
with this
synoptic feature and continued NW flow (850mb winds 30-35 kts).
Have indicated PoPs around 60% for the higher elevations, and
generally 20-40% for the valleys. NAM12/BTV-4km WRF/NAM-4km all
indicate a few hundreths QPF in the orographically favored
locations of the Adirondacks and nrn Greens. Freezing levels drop
to 2000-2500` after midnight
. That said, saturated layer is
relatively shallow per NAM/GFS model soundings (just a 2kft thick
band from 3- 5kft in the 12Z NAM) and not particularly cold
(generally warmer than -5C), thus thermal regime favors
supercooled water over frozen condensate. Anticipate a bit of
riming or freezing drizzle across the ridge tops tonight, with
perhaps intermittent snow flurries at times, if saturation can
occur at colder temperatures within the clouds. Lowered any snow
accumulation to <1" for the highest peaks of the nrn Greens and
nrn Adirondacks based on anticipated sounding profiles
. Low
temperatures tonight generally 42-46F at surface elevations AOB
1000 ft, with is 7-10DEG below the 30-yr climo mean in most spots.

Thursday: Continued deep-layer NW/cyclonic flow regime in place
across NY and Northern New England for Thursday. NAM12/BTV-4km
WRF/NAM-4km show continued orographic showers, mainly across far
n-central into nern VT, where best deep-layer moisture is
expected tomorrow. Freezing levels remain relatively low, around
2kft at 12Z and climbing to around 3kft at 18z per 12Z NAM
soundings across nrn VT. Again, saturated layer is relatively
shallow and generally warmer than -5C, so again rime and/or a bit
of freezing drizzle is favored over snow for the ridge tops, but
did keep some snow mention in case saturation extends deeper and
to colder temps
. Otherwise, anticipate mostly cloudy skies in
upslope areas, and some partly sunny conditions in downslope areas
downwind of the nrn Adirondacks and into the CT river Valley given
the NW flow. Low- level mixing should yield NW daytime winds
10-20mph, with gusts 20-30 mph during the late morning thru aftn
period given steep lapse rates and moderately strong sea-level
pressure gradient in place. In terms of temperature, should be
our coolest day of the stretch with highs only in the low-mid 50s
for n-central and nern VT - as well as the Adirondack communities
- and upr 50s to lower 60s in the St. Lawrence Valley, the
Champlain Valley, and into the CT valley with some
adiabatic/downslope warming conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 317 PM EDT Wednesday...Cyclonic flow and continued
unsettled conditions will continue into Thursday evening. 12z
NAM/GFS and most recent SREF mean suggest primary axis of 925-700
mb moisture is mainly focused across the northern mtns of VT.
Meanwhile depth of moisture becomes increasingly more shallow
across the Adirondacks into the evening hours. Accordingly, I`ve
focused PoPs for light showers in the slight chance to chance
category across the Northeast Kingdom and the northern/north-
central Greens. Partly to mostly cloudy skies along with 850 mb
temps around 0 to +2C support lows in the 40s except mid/upper 30s
across the mtns.


Temperatures then begin to moderate on Friday, in response to a
pattern change toward building 500-mb heights. Slight chances for
showers across the Northeast Kingdom will continue for the morning
hours on Friday, but expect the depth of moisture to become more
shallow here as well. Prevalence of showers should therefore
become fewer and far between, with dry conditions then the rule
Friday afternoon and evening. 925-850 mb warm advection to take
place on northwest flow Friday, with warming 850 temps to +3 to
+6C by early Friday evening, and then further rising to +5 to +9C.
Under partial sunshine, look for highs Friday in the upper 50s to
low 60s eastern VT to mid/upper 60s in the milder valley
locations. Lows Friday night generally in the 40s to near 50 in
the Champlain Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 317 PM EDT Wednesday... Highly-amplified CONUS mid-
tropospheric pattern to evolve into the extended. In this pattern,
large-scale troughing with fast mid-level flow in the mean across
the Northeast US is about the only detail that can be confidently
stated about the period. Timing and phase differences of
individual shortwave troughs in the northwest flow unfortunately
preclude more specific daily details. As the previous forecaster
alluded to, expect a rollercoaster of temps initially near or
slightly above normal with below-normal temperatures a likely
outcome late in the weekend into the middle of next week.

Per indications inherent in today`s 12z GFS and ECMWF, a possible
window of significant active weather would be Saturday afternoon
or Sunday, as a strong cold front is likely to pass across the
North Country. Latest indication is that the front would arrive
Saturday evening. Aloft, both models show strong upper dynamics
associated with potent mid-level shortwave trough - including
diffluent mid-level flow focused mainly Saturday evening.
Unfavorable time of day limits available instability for the front
to work with, but the strong dynamics would at this point support
a limited risk of T-storms. Maintained idea of high-chance/low-
likely PoPs for Sat night. Timing that front will be a point to
monitor in later model runs. Saturday`s also the warmest day in
the extended period with highs low/mid 70s.

Upper trough progresses southeastward Sunday and then evolves into
a wrapped-up upper low setting up shop somewhere in the Gulf of
Maine or Nova Scotia/Canadian Maritimes region. Unseasonably
cool temperatures aloft
(reflected by sub-550 dm 1000-500
thickness with 850 mb temps a couple degrees either side of 0C
should lead to highs only in the 60s with good mixing of
northerly gusts
. Slight chance to chance PoPs indicated for early
next week as moisture is wrapped around, highest around the
northern mtns of VT. It adds up to a potentially raw couple days
by mid-June standards
.


NWS Albany

QUOTE
National Weather Service Albany NY
406 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2016

Tonight...The NAM/HRRR guidance continues to have instability
showers associated with the upper level continuing into the early
evening. Also, with the W/NW flow...some June lake effect rain
showers will continue downstream of Lake Ontario. Temps may cool
enough for some wet snowflakes over the highest peaks of the
southern Dacks, but little or no accumulation is expected
. The
isold-sct rain showers will tend to persist along the west facing
slopes of the southern Dacks, southern Greens, and Catskills into
the early morning hours before diminishing due to the lowering
subsidence inversion. Low temperatures will mainly be in the 40s,
with some upper 30s possible across higher elevations of the
southern Adirondacks and southern Greens, as well as the eastern
Catskills. These temps will be a good 10-15 degrees below normal.


Current Surface Map. Front has clear, High Pressure moving in

Attached Image

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