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2 Jan 2015
After this Great Lakes Cutter Storm this weekend, Jet Stream dives back down with the coldest air of the season.
Both Euro and GFS have cold air coming in 5th - 7th then a deeper more impressive shot from 7th-8th then another quick reinforcing shot of air on the 9th; but they both agree it's only for a couple days.
Quick look at the NAO going positive.
Climate Prediction Center - Teleconnections: North Atlantic Oscillation
14 Dec 2014
Apparently both old and new GFS keep showing a storm Christmas Eve or Christmas in the long parade of storms showing up. December 17-18 & Dec 21-22 as well.
Is the GFS being naughty or nice? we will soon find out.
Not in Euro's range yet but its last frame shows High pressures in the Northeast and Southeast on the 23rd.
EuroEnsembles from AccuPro showing a clipper that throws snow down from Great Lakes/Northern New England area down to Philly up to Boston on Christmas
GFS00z last night goes hog wild and stuffs the stocking with a 969mb low right over Boston.
The latest stuffs the stocking with rain on the 26th with storm cutting to Great lakes.
The 18z yesterday had 994mb low off the coast.
2 Oct 2014
The Senario from WPC
A DYNAMIC POLAR SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN
CANADA WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO REACH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON FRIDAY WHILE DEVELOPING A CLOSED 500MB LOW. IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW, SOME DYNAMIC COOLING WITH
THE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN
BE EXPECTED. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN AN EARLY SEASON EVENT LIKE
THIS IS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE.
Accumap is up for the flakes.
Sounding for Longville, MN where the GFS12z showing a few inches
GFS12z Hour 36 Friday 8pm
From NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
431 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE SLOWER TREND WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM ALSO MEANS MOST OF
FRIDAY COULD BE PRECIP FREE AS WE END UP IN THE DRY SLOT...WITH
THE TRAILING WEAK TROUGH AND UPPER LOW NOT SWINGING THROUGH UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING MIGHT ACTUALLY SUPPORT A FEW MORE SNOW
FLAKES MIXING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURE PROFILE COLLAPSE AND THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO NEAR
1000FT WHILE THE LIGHT PRECIP IS STILL ONGOING IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF MN AND IN WESTERN WI. THE SURFACE TEMP AND GROUND TEMP ARE TOO
WARM FOR EVEN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...BUT NONETHELESS WE`RE ABOUT A
COUPLE WEEKS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE FROM WHEN WE TYPICALLY SEE OUR
FIRST FLAKES . THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL HAVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN [/b]. ...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT
/INCHES/ SNOWFALL IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO.
18 Sep 2014
Here's the Current Alerts Map for tonight.
NWS Burlington says The Freeze for parts of Vermont/NY is 1-2 weeks early.
Protect those plants tonight best you can, I think a seasonable trend after this for couple days so I wonder if you can get them to survive through this freeze if they could last till end of September..
Nice cool dry airmass behind the front as it drops south. Should stall and dissipate near Southern Ohio Valley & Mid Atlantic.
This is High pressure dropping down from the Arctic so the airmass is fresh. Cold and Dry with it. North Winds
7 Sep 2014
All models showing this anomalous storm going from Plains to Great Lakes into Canada with some very cold air behind it.
As usual, details changing up to the event, such as exact track, temps, moisture, and such.
Something I'm seeing with this morning's run is backside moisture inside the cold pool of air. While some may see snow"flakes" falling, we may not know without anyone reporting it. Elevations above 2000 feet have much better chances at it from North Dakota to Northern Wisconsin..
Here's latest GFS map for Thursday morning.
Here's Rapid City Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 AM MDT SUN SEP 7 2014
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING COLD ENOUGH LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER AT
LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH COLD AIR
IN PLACE...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY OVER MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WY AND AT LEAST FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A HARD FREEZE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
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