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“Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get,” Both have always and will always be changing.
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
41 years old
SW Coastal CT
Born Dec-17-1974
Season Snow Totals:

2007-08 - 21"
2008-09 - 41"
2009-10 - 39.4"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
Joined: 10-August 09
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Last Seen: Today, 08:18 AM
Local Time: Oct 21 2016, 10:50 AM
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My Content
16 Oct 2016
Hope you don't mind I started this thread. Here is the link to last years 2015-16 Season long Lake Effect Thread.

GFS6z hinting at some Lake Effect snows Monday night the 25th

Attached Image

Accu Map forecast

Attached Image
26 Sep 2016
One of my favorite atmospheric features coming down and looks to meander across the regions..
Hopefully will be able to chip away at some drought areas..

National Weather Service State College PA
552 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016


A cold front will move through quickly later this afternoon and
early tonight. After a dry day or two, the forecast becomes rather
wet with a cut off upper low .


Wind out of the west/southwest and temps will be rather normal,
allowing things to get right back to dry. But, this may
(probably) will not last long.


The mid week period will bring the large upper level low through
the Great Lakes and down into the Ohio Valley. The low will
slowly progress eastward with model PWATS increasing through the
latter half of the week
. Couple this with the Southwesterly flow
and will allow for an increase of POPS Through the second half of
the week and into the weekend. This will make the forecast a
little milder at night and slightly cooler in the day, but very
nearly normal. Have kept up with the overall trend of increasing
POPs for the latter half of the week and into the weekend. The
upper low is currently progged to lift northeast, but probably not
until then end of the long term period.
15 Sep 2016
Just to have somewhere to put our forecasts and OBSs instead of in the Drought thread.. Hopefully we get some good rains in Southern New England and drought areas.

A front will interact with Tropical moisture from remnants of Julia.

Dewpoints rise as well to near 70 which will create more instability which means more embedded rains.

National Weather Service Taunton MA
347 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2016

Sunday into Sunday night ...

Approaching trough and associated frontal boundary begin to advect
and interact with tropical moisture along with some interaction from
the remnants of Julia
. Frontal convergence coupled with modest upper
level jet streak should provide sufficient forcing for ascent to
yield at least scattered showers if not numerous at times. Will have
to watch this closely as there are some signs of a PRE (Predecessor
Rainfall Event...however jet streak aloft is not that anomalous
along with frontal boundary lacking baroclinicity. Thus weak signal
for a PRE but worth watching how system evolves.

Dew pts rising into the mid to upper 60s /possibly near 70/ will
yield modest SB instability of 500 to 1000 j/kg. Thus isolated T-
storms possible
along with a few strong storms possible as deep
layer shear increases to 30-35 kt yielding. As previous forecaster
noted...0-1km shear increases to 20 kt along with high dew pts
yielding low LCLs. Hence very low risk of a brief spin-up. In
addition with PWATs climbing to near 2" and dew pts 65 to 70 coupled
with modest frontal convergence and synoptic scale lift...heavy rain
threat exist. Otherwise it will be a warm and humid day with highs
75 to 80.

Monday ...

Mid level trough and associated frontal boundary moving across the
Thus risk for leftover showers and T-storms early and
especially over RI and eastern MA. Typical bias at this time range
with 12Z GEFS and GFS faster than 12z ECMWF with trough departure.
Still warm and humid.

5 Jul 2016
Just when we thought a La Nina dry drought would be the main story...here we are with Storm #3 now within 2 weeks time. Looks like a wet Thursday-Friday for Northeast


Attached Image
20 Jun 2016
Looks like a Clipper Style.

Green showing up is a welcome site. June 1 - 20 only 1.09" at Bridgeport. Least amount since 2005 for the period. It's been a dry pattern recent weeks.

Frontal Rains tomorrow then ... Looks like a Storm coming down with rain Wed-Thursday as the Jet digs down in the East. Euro Ensembles are further south so New England misses the rains. GFS is north with it.

Some discussions::

NWS Boston:

National Weather Service Taunton MA
720 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

Longwave trof will gradually deepen and dig connected vortex
centered just south of Ungava Bay.

Tue night into Wed night...
Trof continues to settle across the northeast with H5 temps
dropping below -15C and strong cyclonic flow. This will lead to a
continuation of cloud cover

A second shortwave, currently wrapped
in the PACNW vortex will be entering this flow and is expected to
be catalyst for cyclogenesis of the mid Atlantic along this
stalled frontal boundary.

NWS Philly

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
652 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

**Dry pattern across our area this month looks to continue through
at least Wednesday**


National Weather Service New York NY
725 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

Next threat for unsettled weather looks to be Thursday into Thursday
eve with an approaching low pressure system in response to earlier
mentioned shortwave energy. Models have all been signaling this
system for the past couple of days...but still some uncertainty on
track of low pressure.
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