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NorEaster07
Rank: F5 Superstorm
39 years old
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SW Coastal CT
Born Dec-17-1974
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Local Time: Oct 31 2014, 07:41 PM
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NorEaster07

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2 Oct 2014
The Senario from WPC

A DYNAMIC POLAR SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN
CANADA WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO REACH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON FRIDAY WHILE DEVELOPING A CLOSED 500MB LOW. IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW, SOME DYNAMIC COOLING WITH
THE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN
BE EXPECTED. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN AN EARLY SEASON EVENT LIKE
THIS IS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE.


Accumap is up for the flakes.



Sounding for Longville, MN where the GFS12z showing a few inches



GFS12z Hour 36 Friday 8pm

Attached Image


From NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
431 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

THE SLOWER TREND WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM ALSO MEANS MOST OF
FRIDAY COULD BE PRECIP FREE AS WE END UP IN THE DRY SLOT...WITH
THE TRAILING WEAK TROUGH AND UPPER LOW NOT SWINGING THROUGH UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING MIGHT ACTUALLY SUPPORT A FEW MORE SNOW
FLAKES MIXING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURE PROFILE COLLAPSE AND THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO NEAR
1000FT WHILE THE LIGHT PRECIP IS STILL ONGOING IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF MN AND IN WESTERN WI. THE SURFACE TEMP AND GROUND TEMP ARE TOO
WARM FOR EVEN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...BUT NONETHELESS WE`RE ABOUT A
COUPLE WEEKS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE FROM WHEN WE TYPICALLY SEE OUR
FIRST FLAKES . THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL HAVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN [/b]. ...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT
/INCHES/ SNOWFALL IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO.
18 Sep 2014
Here's the Current Alerts Map for tonight.

NWS Burlington says The Freeze for parts of Vermont/NY is 1-2 weeks early.

Protect those plants tonight best you can, I think a seasonable trend after this for couple days so I wonder if you can get them to survive through this freeze if they could last till end of September..

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Current temps.

Nice cool dry airmass behind the front as it drops south. Should stall and dissipate near Southern Ohio Valley & Mid Atlantic.

This is High pressure dropping down from the Arctic so the airmass is fresh. Cold and Dry with it. North Winds

Attached Image
7 Sep 2014
All models showing this anomalous storm going from Plains to Great Lakes into Canada with some very cold air behind it.

As usual, details changing up to the event, such as exact track, temps, moisture, and such.

Something I'm seeing with this morning's run is backside moisture inside the cold pool of air. While some may see snow"flakes" falling, we may not know without anyone reporting it. Elevations above 2000 feet have much better chances at it from North Dakota to Northern Wisconsin..

Here's latest GFS map for Thursday morning.

Attached Image



Here's Rapid City Discussion

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 AM MDT SUN SEP 7 2014

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING COLD ENOUGH LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER AT
LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH COLD AIR
IN PLACE...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY OVER MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WY AND AT LEAST FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A HARD FREEZE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
9 Aug 2014
Like a broken record this Summer, another possible Fall/Winter type scenario. (No not snow)

Euro shows a storm curling around a trough heads towards Great Lakes then transfers energy to a coastal low which then heads towards Maine. 1000mb Low. Not a pattern we typically see in the summer.

GFS does not transfer.

Either way ... Rain, Clouds, some wind likely. And temps maybe staying in the 60s during the day in spots in New England on Wednesday. Then the chilly air mass comes in for Thurs-Sunday

HPC Surface map for Wednesday

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WPC 7 Day rain totals

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25 Jan 2014
TWO FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS WILL CROSS THE REGION...EACH WITH A
MODERATE SNOW. THE FIRST WILL BE TODAY...THE SECOND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. EACH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SURGES OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR


6:10am Temps and Radar. And Worth it to point out that winds are gusting 15-30mph from Minnesota to Kentucky to Maine

Attached Image



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