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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Queens, New York
Born Dec-2-1988
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15 Jul 2011
Well I had to make this thread after seeing tonight's 00z runs, with the NAM now on board, and the GFS having its most impressive run yet, with maximum instability of the region over the NYC metro area N&W in the 18-00z timeframe, along with ample shear... Appears to be a nice pre-frontal trough forming over the area.

LI to -10:

CAPE to 2000-3000:

Shear to 40 kts:

What will be interesting to see is that the storms will likely be coming from the N-NW, which is a rather rare direction.

Also of note, we have some severe history on this date (1997, 2006, 2007, possibly other years but too lazy to check now! tongue.gif)

I think next week will definitely be the best t'storm week of the season so far for the NE... Looks like at least one more event following this one!
30 Jun 2011
With the timing of the front slowing down on the last couple runs of the NAM & GFS, Sunday is now in the game for severe weather. NAM continues to show a nice amount of precip, although low instability, compared to the GFS, which is showing higher instability but less precip. Unfortunately, neither model shows much of any shear, so we'll most likely be dealing with pulse-type storms. But the 00z NAM shows a nice vort max rolling towards the coast in the late afternoon-early evening...


SPC doesn't mention the threat yet, although I feel like some may be pleasantly surprised. Maybe now that we're entering the month of July, we will see an increase in convective activity. On the other hand, it may also mean that this summer will continue to stink!
4 Jun 2011
Models are depicting an interesting low setup next week which normally favors severe weather for the region.

Right now the ECM is the fastest with this feature, appearing to bring a surface trough through the area overnight Wednesday into Thursday, while the GFS and GGEM brings it through at a favorable time in the late afternoon-evening on Thursday.

12z ECMWF:

12z GGEM:

12z GFS:

This would likely be a better event than last Wednesday's for areas further south, since the low will be traveling closer to the area, allowing for better forcing. Looking at 12z GFS parameters, there is plenty of instability, however, there is basically no shear, which seems odd considering a rather strong low for this time of year will be rolling through.

LI (18z Thurs June 9):

CAPE (18z Thurs June 9):

Shear (18z Thurs June 9): dry.gif

As of now, SPC has no mention of this event... Yet.
10 Nov 2009
We now have had 3 consecutive GFS hinting at a major storm affecting the area around Thanksgiving, and considering this is a climatologically active period, i feel that this is definitely something to watch. Some of the more recent active Thanksgivings (give or take a few days) include 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005... Note it has been a while since a major storm has struck around Thanksgiving, so we are due... In addition, note that most of those years (except for 2005) were El Nino years...

06Z GFS:

12Z GFS:

18Z GFS:

All three runs indicate a deep trough digging into the area (probably marking the unofficial start of winter, if it verifies). The 18Z also appears to start to go negatively tilted way far south, so this definitely has the potential to really bomb out and be our first significant storm system of the year. Of course, it is still over 2 weeks away, so it's something we'll just have to keep an eye on as we get closer to the time period.
20 Oct 2008
If i were to estimate the geostrophic wind off a computer model, what kind of wind speed would that translate to at the surface? I know wind speed is going to be less at the surface b/c of friction, but how much less? I just calculated the geostrophic wind for the NYC area for the potential storm this upcoming weekend and it came out to 67 mi/hr... Just wondering what kind of actual winds that would give us...
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