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Viewing Topic: May 15th-20th Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather
Local Time: May 20 2013, 05:12 PM
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12 May 2013
Well folks, our first potent severe weather event is upon us.
The signal is strengthening in the longer-range GFS that this weekend SVR is likely over parts of the Plains then transitioning eastward with mean flow aloft.
Finally we get a Southwestern Trough ejecting over the plains with what will surely be a VERY unstable airmass. Now it is coming after a rather strong ridge, so naturally 700mb temps and associated Capping Inversions are something to look at deeply.
The main days look to be Saturday and Sunday, however there are opportunities associated with the ejecting ShortWaves likely in the TX panhandle along a sharp dryline.
However, looking at the broad "simple synoptic" pattern this set-up has a lot of things going for it, and would not be surprised if we some Day 4-8 Probs introduced very soon - as GFS has been consistent with other Medium Range models.
Will be out there chasing - along with everyone and their dog I am sure as well.
28 Apr 2013
Can't believe this title is appropriate and yet it is...some eye candy maps for everybody, and this system is synoptically set up by the GFS to support snow fall...
0z GFS Snow Depth Map
Yea that's 12+ inches progged in Kansas...The GFS is bringing down cold air - that's fairly unmodified with a large deformation precipitation shield and mixing the two yielding snow.
Synoptically, looking at the 500mb charts it would support this solution.....SHOULD tonights GFS be right with the pattern around 120 hours out from now. It certainly won't be, but it is a time frame worth watching as snow is possible just by looking at the general pattern.
UGHHHH We need all the rain in KS and the precipitation we can get, but we would stunt the growing season already more than we have. Wheat failures from the recent freezes are already hurting, this would make it worse.
It's bad because KS winter wheat has received about the amount of Precip it will need for excellent harvest yields, it's just cold weather is getting in the way this year.
2 Jan 2013
Thunderstorms and maybe severe weather for the ejection of the closed low from the SW US into the Central Plains before being absorbed back into zonal flow.
Note the Jet Streak coming behind it - has a possibilty to be a bigger weather maker spatially than this storm. This storm doesn't appear to be massive.
7 Aug 2012
Lo and Behold, a respite from thee extended heat that has battered the Central Plains and, at times, parts of the MW and OV area.
The ECMWF and the GFS are all fairly consistent on bringing down Trough and an associated Canadian High, modified or not (hard to tell this time of year) into the MW/OV. 850 Temps ranging from 12C to 8C look common place. The stalwart ridge is looks to take a major hit, both in strength and in location (further West) with this Trough.
It does not appear to stick around long ~3 days but today's 12z ECMWF wants to bring down a much stronger trough and a very strong SLP along the Canadian/US border towards the long range of 192-240 hours. It bears watching as the GFS has showed something along this lines in the past. I am not sure that today's 12z did though.
Anyways worth watching
Teleconnections, for those that like to look for recurring patterns and such:
At the time of this post the forecasts for the AO and NAO concerning the time frame were:
MJO (with ECMWF forecast):
Enjoy the cool down, places of upper MW should definitely see lows in the upper 40's.
Would like to get a lively discussion here on these forums again. Let's Go!
25 Oct 2011
Oh baby, the ECMWF cooks up a doozy of a storm for this time frame. Places as far south as KS might see snow from this, not too mention the associated severe threat that could accompany a system this dynamic.
A Long ways out, but the Euro has been consistent in something happening in this time frame.
21 Feb 2013 - 22:43
21 Feb 2013 - 20:05
24 Dec 2012 - 13:27
17 Dec 2012 - 22:14
23 Jul 2012 - 10:32
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