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27 Dec 2014
I think it's about time to make a thread for the last system of the year.
This is what we are looking at precip wise right now. A couple of days ago this was forecast to be a cool Santa Ana wind event, but pretty much all of the models are showing some kind of moisture for at least some parts of southern California right now. The question is... how much? In all likelihood this will not be a big rain maker. Inside sliders usually aren't, although there have been exceptions. The placement of the low will make all the difference here. The trend has been favorable, with models placing the low a bit further south and west, picking up a bit more moisture. Very few actually take it over the ocean though.
Another thing to watch will be snow levels. As of right now NWS LA/Oxnard is calling for snow down to 2500 ft and NWS San Diego down to 2000 ft. Again, moisture is the big question. The storm should be very cold, but if the storm can't pick up enough the core where the coldest temps are will be dry. Regardless of what happens I'll be wishing all of you a happy new year!
4 Jan 2013
Models have finally agreed that the southland will see some rain this coming weekend. Models initially thought this would be a weak cutoff low that would most likely pass south into Baja California, bringing little more than some clouds to the area. Then suddenly they all changed, some bringing a stronger (relatively speaking) cutoff low directly over the area and others taking it to the north as an open wave. Models as recent as the 18z GFS yesterday showed this passing to the north bringing little impact to the southland. Considering that the event is only 2 days away models have really struggled with this event.
For now the question is where will the cold core of this low pass. The GFS brings 850mb temps down to between 0C and -2C, which would bring snow levels down to a similar level as the last system. 500mb temps get down to the mid -20's, which would make for a fairly marginal, but still considerable threat of convection. If the low cuts off more and the cold core comes directly overhead there could be a better chance of thunderstorms.
25 Nov 2012
After several days of uneventful weather here along the west coast, a series of storms looks to take aim at the California coastline. Rainfall totals look to be quite impressive up closer to the Oregon border, dropping as you head south.
Here is a summary of the upcoming system from NWS in Sacramento:
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL RANGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAKING FOR THE
FIRST OF MANY WET COMMUTES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY STRONG WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AS WELL AND PICK UP
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH GFS 850 MB WINDS INDICATED AT 50 TO 60 KTS
OVER THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY LOOK TO BE AROUND 6000 FEET
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT MAY DROP TO NEAR 5000 FEET DURING THE DAY AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE STILL MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION WITH OTHER
MODELS KEEPING THE SNOW LEVEL AT AROUND 7000 FEET.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR NORCAL FROM MIDWEEK ON.
MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WED/THURS...AND THEN ROTATE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
INTO THE WEST COAST FROM THURS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SEND
MULTIPLE JET STREAKS OVER NORCAL ALOFT AND WILL BRING A BROAD
MOISTURE TAP OF PWAT WELL OVER 1 INCH AT THE SURFACE. THIS
MOISTURE STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...WHICH WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. CURRENTLY...MODELS
ARE INDICATING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY WITH
MULTIPLE INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND SIERRA. WITH A WARM AIRMASS
ADVECTING IN...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH (AT OR ABOVE PASS
LEVELS). WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL RELIABILITY PLOTS INDICATE GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH...THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL AFFECT WHEN PRECIP IS HEAVIEST AND WINDS ARE
STRONGEST. THE GFS INDICATES ONE SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE LATE SATURDAY. -DVC
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK THOUGH THEY DO DIFFER IN THE DETAILS
WHICH DOES TEND TO CAST A BIT OF DOUBT ON THE EVENTUAL SCENARIO.
BROAD MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LOW POPS AN
ACCEPTABLE CHOICE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT.
ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER IN THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT
TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWING MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. THIS LEADS TO A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE
RAIN IS PREDICTED TO GO WITH THE EC MODEL BRINGING ALMOST AN INCH OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH AND THE GFS SHOWING VERY LITTLE FOR THE DISTRICT.
WE CURRENTLY HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE SOUTH AND THE FORECAST WAS NOT CHANGED WITH THIS PACKAGE.<div class='codetop'>CODE
Yesterday, 10:05 PM
21 Jan 2015 - 23:33
7 Apr 2014 - 0:05
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26 Jun 2013 - 1:50
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