THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL RANGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAKING FOR THE
FIRST OF MANY WET COMMUTES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY STRONG WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AS WELL AND PICK UP
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH GFS 850 MB WINDS INDICATED AT 50 TO 60 KTS
OVER THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY LOOK TO BE AROUND 6000 FEET
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT MAY DROP TO NEAR 5000 FEET DURING THE DAY AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE STILL MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION WITH OTHER
MODELS KEEPING THE SNOW LEVEL AT AROUND 7000 FEET.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR NORCAL FROM MIDWEEK ON.
MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WED/THURS...AND THEN ROTATE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
INTO THE WEST COAST FROM THURS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SEND
MULTIPLE JET STREAKS OVER NORCAL ALOFT AND WILL BRING A BROAD
MOISTURE TAP OF PWAT WELL OVER 1 INCH AT THE SURFACE. THIS
MOISTURE STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...WHICH WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. CURRENTLY...MODELS
ARE INDICATING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY WITH
MULTIPLE INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND SIERRA. WITH A WARM AIRMASS
ADVECTING IN...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH (AT OR ABOVE PASS
LEVELS). WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL RELIABILITY PLOTS INDICATE GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH...THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL AFFECT WHEN PRECIP IS HEAVIEST AND WINDS ARE
STRONGEST. THE GFS INDICATES ONE SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE LATE SATURDAY. -DVC

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK THOUGH THEY DO DIFFER IN THE DETAILS
WHICH DOES TEND TO CAST A BIT OF DOUBT ON THE EVENTUAL SCENARIO.
BROAD MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LOW POPS AN
ACCEPTABLE CHOICE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT.

ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER IN THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT
TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWING MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. THIS LEADS TO A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE
RAIN IS PREDICTED TO GO WITH THE EC MODEL BRINGING ALMOST AN INCH OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH AND THE GFS SHOWING VERY LITTLE FOR THE DISTRICT.
WE CURRENTLY HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE SOUTH AND THE FORECAST WAS NOT CHANGED WITH THIS PACKAGE.<div class='codetop'>CODE