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LALEO
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Long Beach, CA
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Joined: 28-October 09
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Last Seen: 15th June 2014 - 02:08 PM
Local Time: Sep 1 2014, 08:22 PM
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LALEO

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20 Feb 2013
This last storm was pretty pathetic here in the LBC with only accumulating .19" from a thunderstorm that flew by last night. However many areas South and East fared a bit better as a stronger complex of thunderstorms hit those areas. Even then, Most totals remained under 1"



Looking ahead things definitely look to dry out for atleast a week. The Ecmwf is dry for most of California keeping rain North and East of the state, While the GFS is advertising very very light events scraping the northern half of the state at weeks end. We'll have to wait and see how things transpire over the course of the week. Here is the CPCs 6-10 day Precip and Temp Outlooks.




Either way, Things look to remain unseasonably cool with temps hovering in the low 60s here at the coast.
16 Feb 2013
After some down right beautiful weather here in the Southland, Things look to surprisingly take a turn back towards seasonal weather with a few storms barreling into town.

The first is set to move into the West coast starting Monday, and into the Southland by Tuesday. Then quickly on it's heels is another progged for Thursday into Friday.

Here is the SPC WX Statement from the NWS LA.

...ANOTHER COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
BY TUESDAY...

ANOTHER COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST ON TUESDAY. RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO
AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES ON TUESDAY MORNING...SPREADING INTO
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE IT IS STILL EARLY...PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES
INDICATE THAT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN ONE THIRD AND ONE
INCH OF RAIN.

THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS COLD STORM WILL BE LOW SNOW LEVELS AND
ICY ROADWAYS. ON TUESDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET...LOWERING TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 12
INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES BETWEEN 3000
AND 5000 FEET. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND CUYAMA
VALLEY...WITH BETTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO
GENERATE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.

DUE TO THE LOW SNOW LEVELS AND POTENTIAL FOR ICY ROADWAYS...THERE
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS SOME OF THE HEAVILY TRAVELLED
ROADWAYS...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 5 FROM CASTAIC TO THE GRAPEVINE...HIGHWAY
14 THROUGH THE SOLEDAD CANYON AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...HIGHWAY 33 IN
THE VENTURA MOUNTAINS...AND HIGHWAY 138 THROUGH THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY.

AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ON TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS.
IN ADDITION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE
WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR UNPREPARED HIKERS AND
CAMPERS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW VISIBILITIES...SNOW...
AND ICY ROAD CONDITIONS COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ROAD
CLOSURES. ANYONE PLANNING TO TRAVEL INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS AND BRING WARM
CLOTHING...CHAINS...AND FOOD SUPPLIES.



And Finally, Ken Clarks thoughts on the system. He seems to think So Cal will have the best shot at higher totals, Which could amount to up to 1", Possibly higher amounts with areas lucky to get stuck under a thunderstorm.

Here are a few cuts out of his thoughts.

This next storm strikes starting Monday night in northern California and spread into southern California Tuesday then east into Arizona late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Likely to bring precipitation to the entire area, the heaviest precipitation looks to be across the southern third of California and Arizona. The trajectory of the storm will bring the most Pacific moisture and greatest support aloft across these areas. The models, uncharacteristically, are fairly uniform on the track and therefore my confidence is higher than normal for a storm this far away. What I don't believe in some of the models is the amount of precipitation. While the European was higher on the amount on precipitation yesterday for this storm it now seems the GFS has along with the Canadian seem to have a better handle on these details. Given the dynamics involved higher amounts are better than lower to me. So here are some of the details.

In California:

-Rainfall northern to central California averages 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch.

-Snow levels plummet Tuesday reaching 2,500 feet in the north to 3,000 feet in the southern Sierra and coastal range by Tuesday afternoon and drop another 500 feet Tuesday night into Wednesday for central California.

-Resort levels pick up 8 to 16 inches of snow but several inches of snow could accumulate down to 3,000 feet.

-A little light rain and drizzle can occur anytime west of the mountains southern California but the heaviest rain comes in the afternoon into part of Tuesday night before becoming showery later Tuesday night with a few showers lingering into Wednesday. Rainfall amounts of to 1 inch seem likely with locally higher amounts in the lower foothills of the coastal slopes.

-Snow levels start out at 4,000 feet Los Angeles County mountains and east and 4,500 to 5,000 feet San Diego but fall to 3,000 feet late in the day and down to 2,500 feet everywhere Tuesday night and Wednesday. Resorts could pick up 1 to 2 feet of snow with 4 to 8 inches down to pass level (Grapevine/Cajon/Highway 14) and maybe a couple inches down to 3,000 feet. If this happens major travel problems are likely through all the passes.

-Expect temperatures to be 25 to 30 degrees colder than they are today and will be tomorrow for Tuesday and Wednesday.
10 Feb 2013
After about 2 weeks of dry weather, We just got through a small storm which dumped light totals over much of the area. Some area's fared better than others, Mostly those South and East of Los Angeles, And even then, Most received no more than a half inch. There is a very good chance this could be the last storm we see for February, Which is one of the wettest months for us here. Of course this is very long range, But just about every global model is showing ridging for us here in So Cal through the end of February. Nor Cal may get a system or two, but even then, For those guys, It won't be anything to write home about.

Maybe, Just maybe things will change, Which is a a long shot, Otherwise we need another 82 kind of March and April.
28 Jan 2013
Latest system has now fully moved out of the area, but not before delivering for some areas, The heaviest and highest totals of the year. Before today things looked to stay dry in the Medium to LR, However the GFS threw a wrench into all this and now shows a very wet system moving up from the Southwest into So Cal for Sunday. The system is depicted having a lot of sub tropical moisture tapped into it and will also be cut off, So we could be looking at another event we just saw. While this is in the Medium Range it will have to be monitored as things could certainly trend drier, So stay tuned for updates.

In the interim we can enjoy some warmer and drier weather for the work week. By friday temps should be beautiful in the mid 70s. Although today was quite cool with temps struggling to get on the north side of 60.


Here are a few cuts out of the NWS LA and SD discussions with this weekends system.



NWS- LOS ANGELES

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...

A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY
AND THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL DOWN.

THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DOUBT ON THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONG TERM PATTERN.

NWS- SAN DIEGO

OVER THE WEEKEND THE MODELS
SHOW THE START OF A BREAKDOWN TO THE RIDGE IN THE FORM OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC. NOT UNLIKE LAST WEEK...IT LOOKS
LIKE IT COULD DRAW A LOT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION AND
INCREASE THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS MODEL PAINTS A
VERY WET PICTURE BY MONDAY (MUCH LIKE LAST FRIDAY)
...BUT THE EURO
MODEL CUTS OFF THE TROUGH TOO FAR SOUTHWEST OF US AND KEEPS US DRY.
SO MONDAY COULD BE VERY WET OR DRY AND QUITE WARM. OF COURSE THIS
HUGE DISPARITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY LOWERS THE CONFIDENCE IN
OUR FORECAST. SINCE THERE IS AN INCREASING MOISTURE TREND WE WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL POPS FOR MONDAY.

I tried posting images, But I'm having technical difficulties! laugh.gif
21 Jan 2013
After several weeks of dry and much warmer weather, Things look to take a rather dramatic about face to stormier weather this weekend. There looks to be a smaller event that will affect mostly the northern third of the state Wednesday, Before we start to watch this weekends storm, which has all the ingredients to be a washout for Southern California. The CL to the SW has a massive plume of Subtropical moisture associated with it, and depending on the placement of the trough midweek, This could all get sling shotted directly into Southern California resulting in a prolonged period of moderate rains. The models are still trying to get a handle on what's going to take place as some are dry, but with that much moisture, Seems hard to believe, While other models like the European would result in very impressive totals for Southern California. Going to have to keep monitoring future model runs, But one can't disregard the Europeans great track record this year when forecasting this years weather for NA. At any rate, It's still too early to buy into any model at this point, But the ingredients are there for heavy qpf event for So Cal. Especially considering how dry we have been this year. Most storms have been weak and inside.



Here is K. Clarks excerpt.

A huge ridge of high pressure has made weather forecasting very clear cut and relatively east for well over a week now. It looks like the models are trying to make up for that by late this week into early next week.

In this edition I will he showing some of the model data that I have been faced with today in making forecast across California and the rest of the Southwest for the weekend into early next week. After seeing the differences it may give you an idea of why there are a few less hairs on top of my head.

Not that the forecast does not posses its challenges before then. In the shorter term we have two weather systems that will be affecting the weather. First a satellite picture of the West and Pacific.

It is fairly easy to see the two weather features, a storm in the eastern Pacific west of the Northwest and an upper level low in the low latitudes at about 15N and 137W. The northern system is heading east to southeast and will bring some rain into the coastal Northwest and northern California Wednesday into Wednesday night. That feature will pick up the southern low and start it moving toward California. If it were just the northern feature it would not bring rain any farther south than the northern third of California before it moved off to the east. However you can see that the southern low has a lot of clouds and moisture with it. Both the GFS and European models take this low and approach it toward southern and south-central Californian Friday, passing through Friday night into Saturday. However the GFS is virtually precipitation free with it while the European brings to 1 inch of rain for the southern half of the state west of the deserts. What are my thoughts? I find it hard to believe this southern low with all the moisture it has moves through without any rain at all like the GFS has. In fact I could see how there might be a shower or sprinkle as early as Thursday. I am not as confident about rain amounts. So for now I think there is the possibility for a few showers at the least and maybe more Friday into Saturday.

But our problems don't stop here. From Sunday through Tuesday the GFS and European are playing very different tunes, a difference sort of like classical music to hard core rap. Nothing close to the same. Below I am just going to give you the 500 mb maps Sunday, Monday and Tuesday mornings. It should be pretty obvious that the GFS is saying dry and the European is saying very wet. Here I find it much more difficult to play favorites. The European has been out performing the GFS operational model in many cases this winter in North America. Therefore I am slightly leaning to a wetter solution, just not yet the deluge the European is bringing right now. Even though the European has been better that does not mean it cannot go off the rails this time. There is plenty of time to see how things change with time as we go through the next few days.

The first map under each section is the GFS and the second is the European.

12Z Sunday:



12Z Monday:



12Z Tuesday:





Maybe just once this winter, Us here in the Southland will finally have something exciting to talk about! We will see, Definitely keep your eyes peeled for future updates.
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