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PoconoSnow
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PoconoSnow

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7 Mar 2015
This thread will be used for discussion of the currently depicted first wave of our Mid March potential.







1012z edited description to fit threat possibility. Forecasts.

1112z one last description edit.
24 Feb 2015
EFD today
QUOTE
WEATHER IMPACTS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT
TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER 48. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW, IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM
FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-SOUTH, WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND STATES GETTING IN ON THE ACTION MONDAY INTO NEXT
TUESDAY AS WEAK FRONTAL WAVES ALIGN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID-SOUTH/OHIO VALLEY. FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY,
AREAS NEAR KY SHOULD BE WARY OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL,
WHICH COULD INDUCE SNOW MELT WITH THE COMBINATION LEADING TO
FLOODING


2412z GFS hr144


With an evident CAD signature and below average temps likely Fri-Mon, I believe this potential deserves its own thread for now.

It is possible the GFS is ejecting some energy too early from our SW ULL as we have seen before, so we can use this thread to keep a close watch.


Title edit @ 022500z: SWFE(South West Flow Event)
Date edit @ 022518z: March 1-4
based on harzard disco
QUOTE
Periods of heavy snow in a swath from central Kansas east-northeastward across the middle Mississippi Valley, northern Ohio Valley, lower Great Lakes region, Pennsylvania, and the Northeast (excluding Long Island and Cape Cod), Sun-Wed, Mar 1-4.
Periods of freezing rain/sleet in a band stretching from central Texas northeastward to most of Missouri, southern Illinois, the southern Ohio Valley, parts of the interior mid-Atlantic, Long Island, and Cape Cod, Sat-Wed, Feb 28-Mar 4.

Date edit @ 022712z: March 1-3
Based on rough model concensus in thread. 2-4d fcast & disco
Description edit @ 022800z: March 1-3
Short Range. We are now within 1-3 days of current qpf start time fcast & disco
Description edit @ 022812z: March 1-3
Short Range. Reality obs are now possible. 0-3d Forecasts & observations
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