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Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
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Viewing Topic: Dec. 14th-15th 2016 NE/Mid-Atl Winter Storm
Local Time: Dec 9 2016, 06:07 PM
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30 Nov 2016
Sorry to overlap dates but I don't believe the thread for the 6-8th was ever meant for this threat, current euro has it around the 6th, even if some of the energy is borrowed. A date change may be necessary on that or both. If we are going to use the 6-8 thread then simply merge the threads.
Gfs is a currently on the windward but looks to have another quasi linear convective system with flakes on its tail
EAR has lowering heights around the 2nd in the NE US region which correlates to ~8-9th
11 Nov 2016
O no he didnt!!!!
Ear has a trough but its fairly North on the US correlate.
Banking on a transfer here given the h5 look and bsr and ear
4 Nov 2016
18z gfs now falls in line with euro and other models for a possible trof or cutoff to affect the NE in the 12-13 timeframe
3 Nov 2016
Is continuosly looking flakey and mixed for the NE around the 15th/16th
Current 06z gfs with 6 day lead time from ear. Hr312 here but only 7day lead from asia
Next frame has cold arriving just a tad late and a cut off to deal with in regards to any vorticity that results aiding in moisture feed from the GOM. The northern stream looks negatively oriented on both ear and current modeling. Bsr too
Regardless this looks like the first actual possible snow thread for new England coming on the 15th.
Current RRWT does not necessarily match the 15th but has a east trough idea around the 23rd and does seem to be modulating o so slowly.
BSR is close going into the 15th for new england but just off coast as posted below. Does look like a shot of cold phases with the storm though.
Storm looks possible for east coast around the 15th before the great lakes retrograding low.
Ear bsr and current modeling agree the rrwt is getting there. If I'm not mistaken this falls in line with the SOI drop too.
corrected: typhoon recurves right around this time on the euro and gfs and that could spell trough in east. That being said it almost looks as if the typhoon is pulled into the trough rather than getting bounced by a warm front. So for now I'm still sticking to the 15th give or take for new England. Most likely a strong transfer type situation that could get as far south as southern Jersey is what I see.
Gefs consistently with a +pna and some -nao resulting in a transferush type scenario given the uncertainty with any cut off under the ridge or 4 corners area.
Here was 06z gefs completing transfer night of the 16th
I feel as there us enough data to discuss this period and on top of that will keep thread date and title updated accordingly
3 Nov 2016
Moved this to right forum please delete *****___
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