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Viewing Topic: Long Range Winter 2015-2016 Outlooks, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
Local Time: Nov 25 2015, 02:16 PM
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17 May 2015
I read a post from Dr. Spencer last fall & he felt the cooling the RSS was showing was wrong. UAH v.5 was warmer than RSS. Spencer thought that version 6 would confirm RSS was too cool but....instead v.6 is in agreement with RSS to Spencer's surprise.
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN VERSION 5 & 6
HERE'S THE RSS:
This raises even more questions about the land measurements by NOAA, GISS, HAdCrut 4 etc...I'm not a conspiracy thinking person at all. But the difference between the satellite measurements, & the manuel measurements paint a different picture.
27 Nov 2014
Models have been consistently showing an overrunning event for a while as an Arctic front stalls out just south of the Ohio River. The overrunning precip looks to bring some light ice potential for someone as cold Arctic air undercuts warm air aloft.
These types of events are sneaky & tricky & often underplayed by models...so this bears watching.
12z GFS Parallel
The 12z Euro OP, Control run & many of the individual ensembles are pretty moist...and a little colder with more precip in the freezing surface temps.
7 Feb 2014
No thread for this so I thought I'd start one. Precip breaking out in TX moving NE
Winter Weather Advisories are posted from parts of TX NE through Louisville, Ky for generally 1-3 inches of snow
6z GFS Snowfall
6z NAM Snowfall
Moist GOA Flow beginning to return:
6 Dec 2013
SREF is showing another winter storm that could affect portions of the lower OV on the 10th AFTER the event on the 7th-8th. It has shown it two runs in a row. Definitely need to keep an eye on this.
HR 75 21z SREF Mean
2 Meter Freezing Line
7 Feb 2012
No one has started a thread to my knowledge & it's already game time with this:
Latest 0z GFS gives a little more precip with this system in places:
Latest 04z RUC
16 Nov 2015 - 11:19
21 Oct 2015 - 13:17
28 Aug 2015 - 19:16
24 Jul 2015 - 10:11
14 Jun 2015 - 23:31
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