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WeatherMonger
Rank: F5 Superstorm
40 years old
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Springfield, IL
Born Aug-17-1974
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WeatherMonger

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13 Jun 2015
Went ahead and started this, a few of the threads are overlapping already and a bit confusing. If anyone has a better start date let me know and I'll change it. Flooding has been ongoing in a lot of areas but haven't paid attention to dates.

WPC is anticipating a high precip week ahead and this will add areas to the flooding and aggravate ongoing flooding.

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CPC outlook

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7 Apr 2015
After the bigger event mid week, a small breather before the next chances. SPC is mentioning it and Forbes has given an initial TorCon of 3(for now) for some of these areas.

QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z


BEYOND DAY 5...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES...AS A SRN-STREAM
UPPER FEATURE CROSSING THE SRN ROCKIES IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY
AMONGST MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/LOCATION/ORIENTATION. THIS CONTINUES INTO LATTER STAGES OF
THE PERIOD...AS THE FEATURE PHASES WITH -- AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED BY -- A NRN-STREAM TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. DAY
7 /MON 4-13/. GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN...PREDICTABILITY OF SEVERE RISK REMAINS TOO LOW TO HIGHLIGHT
ATTM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

..GOSS.. 04/07/2015
27 Mar 2015
SPC mentioning the possibility of severe weather towards the mid to latter part of the work week. Forbes, in a reply to his facebook feed, mentions the GFS showing Wed-Thurs while Euro is more Thurs-Fri.

Dates and regions will be narrowed as the possibility becomes better defined.

QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LULL IN EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS...POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
INCREASE BEGINNING ABOUT D5/TUE AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ACCUMULATE OVER THE GULF AND ADJACENT STATES.
ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES BECOME INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED WITH
TIME...CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE OFFERS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF
CONVECTIVE INTEREST. A WEAK SRN-STREAM IMPULSE SHOULD APPROACH THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND D5/TUE. FLOW FIELDS ARE NOT PROGGED
TO BE STRONG...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL-SCALE AMPLIFICATION TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AROUND D6-7.
IN THE NRN STREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AROUND D6/WED WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH INTO THE WRN
STATES AROUND D8/FRI. ALL OF THESE FEATURES MIGHT SUPPORT POCKETS OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...BUT LOW PREDICTABILITY SUGGESTS
DELINEATING SPECIFIC SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS IS PREMATURE.


..GRAMS.. 03/27/2015
28 Feb 2015
Precip has finally pushed into our region, good luck and enjoy



2 Feb 2015
QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jan 6 2015, 11:50 AM) *
Going with the 40 day theme.

Valentines day Clipper anyone?


Had thought about trying to best CV's longest range system thread, but thought better of it. It's shown up for a couple runs and TR/BSR says it's a bit earlier than my 40 day count. Oddly enough it would be the 3rd cycle of the clipper thread(originally Nuri correlation) mentioned above. This cycle has given me nearly half of my snowfall to date, hoping to get one more from it. Really think this one will my last shot at snow, have no faith in southern streams after yesterday, it almost changed my outlook. But ultimately kept it unchanged


Let's see where it goes and what it does, left out some in betweens

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