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WeatherMonger
Rank: F5 Superstorm
41 years old
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Springfield, IL
Born Aug-17-1974
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Joined: 26-January 10
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Last Seen: Yesterday, 10:28 PM
Local Time: Jun 30 2016, 01:51 AM
19,651 posts (8 per day)
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WeatherMonger

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29 Jun 2016
Some much needed beneficial rains will fall for some. Maybe a bit too much over a short period, but a lot of areas could use this, especially with the heat coming back soon thereafter.
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21 Jun 2016
Slight risks introduced for both Friday and Saturday with the possibility of the Mid-MS and OH Valleys mentioned for Sunday.

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QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE D5 PERIOD SHOWING A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS ON
FRI/D4...AND THEN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SAT/D5. THIS WAVE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MATURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS
ON SAT/D5. STRONG FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRI/D4 WILL
INTERACT WITH RETURNING MOISTURE AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SEVERE HAIL OR WIND OVER ERN MT AND WRN ND
MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SAT/D5...THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A
MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO IA AND WI. THIS AREA MAY
EVENTUALLY BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF FAVORABLE MODEL TRENDS
PERSIST. A STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET...SFC TROUGH...AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY SUGGEST WIND AND HAIL ARE LIKELY.

THE LOW WILL OCCLUDE ON SUN/D6...WITH ONLY A MARGINAL THREAT PERHAPS
FROM LOWER MI SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY BUT
WEAKER SHEAR WILL COEXIST. BEYOND D6...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS
TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY WITH DECREASING SEVERE CHANCES.

..JEWELL.. 06/21/2016
20 Jun 2016
Looks like the brief cool down will be just that, brief
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19 Jun 2016
Day 3

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QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KY AND WV ACROSS MUCH
OF VA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA INTO WRN IL LATE...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS AND EXTENDING TO THE DELMARVA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
EASTWARD TO THE DELMARVA ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO ILLINOIS. WIND AND
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS IN ALL AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NERN STATES AS A JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
BY AFTERNOON WITH FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA...VA AND
INTO THE OH VALLEY. S OF THIS FRONT...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL EXIST WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
ERN KY/WV ACROSS VA AND INTO MD/DE.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MT DURING THE DAY
AN INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL RETURN NWD ACROSS THE MO
VALLEY BEHIND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM IL INTO IA...ALSO
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS.


...ERN NEB AND IA EWD ACROSS MO AND IL...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
LIFT AIDED BY THE WARM ADVECTION. WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR DURING THE DAY...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE AFTER 00-03Z AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. THE SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NWLY WILL ELONGATE
HODOGRAPHS AND FAVOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND/OR
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE.


Day 4

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QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS ESEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. MODELS APPEAR
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WED/D4 PERIOD...SHOWING A CORRIDOR
OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WIND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SEWD TOWARD THE OH
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICT AT LEAST 2000 J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...WITH A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SW FUELING A POTENTIAL MCS WED
NIGHT. THESE FEATURES ARE TYPICALLY LOW-PREDICTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH
OF A MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS TO INTRODUCE A MINIMAL SLIGHT RISK AT
THIS TIME.

BY THU/D5...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER PATTERN WHICH FURTHER
LENDS PREDICTABILITY ISSUES TO THE STORM SCALE. FOR EXAMPLE...THE
GFS SHOWS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS WITH
HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS MAINLY NW
FLOW AND LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS. REGARDLESS...ALL MODELS SHOW A
SUBSTANTIAL MCS SIGNAL WITH POCKETS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
ROUGHLY FROM OH SEWD ACROSS WV AND INTO VA. HOWEVER...WILL DEFER TO
LATER OUTLOOKS GIVEN PREDICTABILITY ISSUES THIS FAR OUT.

..JEWELL.. 06/19/2016
10 Jun 2016
90 degrees by noon, marks the first back to back 90 degree days with the real possibility of 7 straight. Covective debris or any pulse type storms could hinder consecutive days.
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