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WeatherMonger
Rank: F5 Superstorm
41 years old
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Springfield, IL
Born Aug-17-1974
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Joined: 26-January 10
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WeatherMonger

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4 Feb 2016
I isn't Skeered, GFS has been showing it off an on. Canadian(ho-hum) has what looks to be the beginnings of something at it's end. RRWT supports this and JD mentioned(not promised) a possibility for our region in this range.

This is my last attempt at '15/'16 winter. If this one fails to give MBY something I vow to not start or participate in another winter thread until the '16/'17 season. All December we heard wait until second half of Jan. first half February, it came and is going fast to no avail. This one has to be it.

02/03 12Z GFS
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02/03 18Z GFS
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0Z Canadian
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26 Jan 2016
SPC and models hinting at the potential

QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE ECENS AND NCEP MREF APPEAR IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...EMERGING FROM THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE PACIFIC...WILL DIG INLAND ACROSS
CALIFORNIA LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPREAD THEN INCREASES AMONG
THE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONCERNING A SUBSEQUENT NORTHEASTWARD
TURN THROUGH THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
PROBABLY WILL SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...WHICH COULD SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...IT ALSO APPEARS THAT GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION WILL
BE SLOW TO ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIVE INLAND RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE. AT THE PRESENT TIME...THIS SEEMS
MORE PROBABLE NEXT TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...RATHER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES...AND OTHER
UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT TO FORECASTS AT THE DAY 7-8 TIME FRAME...
SEVERE PROBABILITIES STILL REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT.

..KERR.. 01/26/2016
19 Jan 2016
Precip has broken out in the Plains/Mid West

5 Dec 2015
SPC has been mentioning the Souhern Plains potential for a few days now. Will add new regions if warranted as it nears, but figured a topic was needed to keep things orderly.


QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CST SAT DEC 05 2015

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A PROGRESSIVE...LOW-AMPLITUDE REGIME WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6 BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DAYS 7-8. HOWEVER...INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN
ECMWF...GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES PERSIST RESULTING IN LOW PREDICTABILITY BEYOND
DAY 5.

CURRENT INDICATION IS THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
AT LEAST DAY 5 DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN INLAND. HOWEVER...THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF INDICATES SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING MIGHT
OCCUR FOR A SEVERE THREAT BY DAY 6 OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN
RESPONSE TO A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT MIGHT EVOLVE BY DAY 8 FROM TX INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A MORE AGGRESSIVE
RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY
DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...HIGH ENSEMBLE DISPERSION SUGGESTS
PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW IN THIS TIME FRAME.


..DIAL.. 12/05/2015
10 Nov 2015
Started a separate theead for the severe weather since other one was a multiple date title.

New day 2 taking forever

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