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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Springfield, IL
Born Aug-17-1974
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My Content
4 Apr 2017
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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Tue Apr 04 2017

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

The medium-range models generally suggest that mid/upper flow will
remain progressive, and trend more zonal next weekend into early
next week, with upper troughiness developing from portions of the
Intermountain West into portions of the Plains and Mississippi
Valley. Although the predictability of the short wave developments
within this regime remains in question, there does appear some
consensus within the output that a significant mid-level jet streak
(on the order of 50+ kt at 500 mb) could nose east of the Rockies
through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley on Sunday. As it
does, it appears that it could contribute to increasing convective
potential within lee surface troughing, ahead of an associated cold
front, particularly across parts of eastern Kansas and northwest
Missouri into southern Iowa. At least modest moistening within
southerly return flow off the Gulf of Mexico appears possible across
this region, beneath rather steep mid-level lapse rates. This
environment may be conducive to discrete supercell development, with
possible eventual upscale growth into an evolving cluster of storms
late Sunday afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 04/04/2017
3 Apr 2017
It was only a matter of time, with flooding already occuring locally, and 2-2 1/2" of rain forecast over the next few days it will only increase the coverage of flooding and exacerbate where currently ongoing. Add in the active wearher down south putting a plug into the Mississippi drainage and it only increases the threaat.

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7 day QPF

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Days 2 and 3 Heavy Precip outlook

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28 Mar 2017
For those moreso in the OV than the plains but both regions are included

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20 Mar 2017
Created a separate thread for the Slight Risk Day 6

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18 Mar 2017
A few of us may see some hail producers Sunday night, figured I's put a placemarker should it occur. Probably a step above yawn, but this will mark the official end of Winter either way, and that in itself is a bonus

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Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z


A marginal hail threat may develop from late Sunday evening into the
overnight period across parts of the lower Missouri and mid
Mississippi Valleys. Other non-severe thunderstorms may develop
across parts of the Intermountain West.

...Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the Great Plains and
mid Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley on Sunday. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into
the mid Missouri Valley Sunday night as the ridge moves eastward
away from the region. In response, a low-level jet will strengthen
across the lower Missouri Valley during the evening resulting in
moisture advection and allowing instability to increase. Model
forecasts are in decent agreement, developing thunderstorms near the
nose of the low-level jet in southern Iowa during the late evening
and moving this activity southeastward into western Illinois after
midnight. NAM and GFS forecast soundings along this corridor at
06Z/Monday show a sharp temperature inversion at the surface but
have substantial instability above 700 mb with MUCAPE values of 1500
to 2000 J/kg. This combined with steep lapse rates and 30 to 35 kt
of effective shear may be enough for a marginal hail threat with the
stronger cells.

..Broyles.. 03/18/2017
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