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WeatherMonger
Rank: F5 Superstorm
42 years old
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Springfield, IL
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WeatherMonger

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18 Nov 2016
Marginal Risk for a broad area today. Figured I would give those that get a thunderstorm somewhere to talk.

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QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2016

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ARKLATEX TO SRN LM REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST
VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM THE
ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CHICAGOLAND AREA. THE MAIN
CONCERN SHOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...STEADILY PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING FROM
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND OVER PAC COAST
STATES ATTM. STG TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY
FROM ERN SD AND ERN NEB SWWD OVER CENTRAL KS TO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA AND NEARLY-CLOSED 500-MB CIRCULATION
OVER ERN NEB. LATTER FEATURE WILL EVOLVE INTO CLOSED LOW CENTERED
INVOF DLH BY 00Z...WITH TROUGH SWD ACROSS IA...MO...AR...TO LOWER
SABINE RIVER. LOW WILL DEVOLVE BACK TO OPEN-WAVE STRUCTURE DURING
LATTER HALF OF PERIOD...REACHING NRN LS. SYNOPTIC TROUGH SHOULD
ASSUME NEGATIVE TILT AS BASAL 500-MB VORTICITY/SPEED MAXIMA
STRENGTHEN AND OUTPACE NRN PART OF TROUGH FROM MO TO LOWER OH
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...LARGE NERN-PAC CYCLONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD BUT
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH PERIOD.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED PRIMARY LOW OVER CENTRAL IA...WITH COLD
FRONT OVER WRN MO...SERN OK...N-CENTRAL TX...AND LOWER PECOS VALLEY/
BIG BEND REGION. BY 00Z...WITH SFC LOW OCCLUDED NEAR WI/MI LINE...
COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH LOWER MI...INDIANA...WRN TN...NWRN LA...AND
MIDDLE TX COAST. BY 12Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN ONT
ACROSS WRN PA...SWRN VA...NRN GA...AND N-CENTRAL GULF.

...ARKLATEX TO SRN LM...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP ON EITHER
SIDE OF COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE OUTRUNNING
SUPPORTIVE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING.
WINDS APCHG SVR LIMITS MAY OCCUR FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.

BROADER SCENARIO FEATURES CLASSICAL COOL-SEASON TRADE-OFF OF
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE LIFT...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DEEP-
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW NORTH...MORE ROBUST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SOUTH BUT
SHALLOWER FRONTAL SLOPE. DISTINGUISHING CHARACTERISTIC HERE IS LESS
MOISTURE THAN THOSE SYSTEMS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD SVR EVENTS...
THANKS TO SUBSTANTIALLY ANTICYCLONIC ANTECEDENT TRAJECTORIES THAT
HAVE KEPT MOST RETURN-FLOW FETCHES NONEXISTENT TO SHORT ACROSS GULF.

STILL...RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS...BECOMING MORE NARROW WITH NWD
EXTENT...WILL PRECEDE COLD FRONT AT LEAST AS FAR N AS PORTIONS OF
LOWER OH VALLEY REGION INTO PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. SFC DEW POINTS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 60S F S OF OZARKS TO LOWER/MID 50S OVER IL.
GIVEN STG COMPONENT OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR VECTORS PARALLEL TO
FRONT...AND PREDOMINANCE OF VEER-BACK-VEER WIND PROFILES WITH
HEIGHT...MAIN STORM MODE SHOULD BE QUASI-LINEAR WITH EMBEDDED
STRONGER ELEMENTS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 21Z MLCAPE...IN IMMEDIATE
PREFRONTAL SECTOR...RANGING FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER NRN LA TO
LESS THAN 400 J/KG OVER NERN IL...WHILE EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES
INCREASE FROM AROUND 30 KT OVER NRN LA TO 50 KT IN NRN IL.
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN SOONER OVER NRN AREAS DUE TO LIMITED
TIME/SPACE WINDOW WITH FASTER STORM MOTIONS AND NARROWER ZONE OF
INSTABILITY THAT IS MORE MRGL.

...TX COASTAL PLAIN...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM MIDDAY ONWARD BOTH NEAR
AND AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...INCLUDING ANY PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE/
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP DURING FAVORED AFTN PERIOD.
FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERCUT RATHER QUICKLY BY ASSOCIATED
DENSITY CURRENT...WITH MINIMAL TO NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR SVR.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN AN HOUR OR MORE OF FRONTAL
TRANSLATION TIME INTO WARM SECTOR WILL POSE RISK OF ISOLATED STG-SVR
GUSTS...GIVEN STRONGLY HEATED/WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER...AND DEW
POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F SUPPORTING MLCAPE IN 2000-2500 J/KG
RANGE. FROPA AND RELATED CAA WILL DECREASE ANY SVR THREAT ABRUPTLY.

..EDWARDS.. 11/18/2016
2 Nov 2016
Slight risk for winds issued for north central/central IL.

This is a huge event compared to the last 4 months laugh.gif Created a thread just in case someone gets something to talk about ie. gust over 20, graupel, maybe a brief downpour with sun shining etc....

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9 Jul 2016
SPC has the next 3 days delineated in the northern Plains/MW and mentions of the GL and possibly further south beyond.

Day 1

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Day 2

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Day3

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29 Jun 2016
Some much needed beneficial rains will fall for some. Maybe a bit too much over a short period, but a lot of areas could use this, especially with the heat coming back soon thereafter.
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21 Jun 2016
Slight risks introduced for both Friday and Saturday with the possibility of the Mid-MS and OH Valleys mentioned for Sunday.

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QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE D5 PERIOD SHOWING A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS ON
FRI/D4...AND THEN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SAT/D5. THIS WAVE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MATURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS
ON SAT/D5. STRONG FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRI/D4 WILL
INTERACT WITH RETURNING MOISTURE AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SEVERE HAIL OR WIND OVER ERN MT AND WRN ND
MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SAT/D5...THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A
MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO IA AND WI. THIS AREA MAY
EVENTUALLY BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF FAVORABLE MODEL TRENDS
PERSIST. A STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET...SFC TROUGH...AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY SUGGEST WIND AND HAIL ARE LIKELY.

THE LOW WILL OCCLUDE ON SUN/D6...WITH ONLY A MARGINAL THREAT PERHAPS
FROM LOWER MI SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY BUT
WEAKER SHEAR WILL COEXIST. BEYOND D6...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS
TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY WITH DECREASING SEVERE CHANCES.

..JEWELL.. 06/21/2016
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