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WeatherMonger
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Springfield, IL
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3 May 2016
SPC has highlighted a Day 5 slight risk with inconsitency in modeling for downstream delineation ATM. Will add/modify dates and regions as needed

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QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY
DAY6...PERHAPS SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS LATER DAYS7-8. TIMING OF
EJECTING SHORT WAVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN AND MODULATOR REGARDING SEVERE RISK ACROSS THIS REGION.
WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SCANT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SHOULD WITH TIME
ALLOW AT LEAST MODIFIED MOISTURE TO ADVANCE NWD SUCH THAT SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ALONG A SHARPENING DRY LINE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. BY DAY5...ADEQUATE SHEAR/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
RESIDE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELLS...IF STRONGER
FLOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AS EXPECTED. TIMING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DICTATE SEVERE RISKS DOWNSTREAM DURING LATER
PERIODS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
ORGANIZED SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

..DARROW.. 05/03/2016

7 Apr 2016
SPC has higlighted an area for the 12th. JD has been mentioning the period of interest for awhile now.

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QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT THU APR 07 2016

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT MID/UPPER FLOW
COULD TREND A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THIS REGIME REMAIN A SOURCE OF CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS...AND WITHIN THEIR ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AND PATTERN PREDICTABILITY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BECOMES RATHER LOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A
SUBSTANTIVE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL EMERGE FROM MEAN TROUGHING
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIME FRAME.

CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS COULD STILL BE LACKING ON SUNDAY...MITIGATING SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL AT LEAST SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY...AN INFLUX
OF MORE SUBSTANTIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...COINCIDING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU. IT APPEARS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL
BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR SUPERCELLS...AT LEAST
INITIALLY. THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF A PROGRESSIVE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM THEN APPEARS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY EVENING.

..KERR.. 04/07/2016
24 Mar 2016
SPC has a few areas higlighted for this period

Day 3
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QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
FLORIDA...THE GULF COAST...AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS ON
SATURDAY.

...FL...
A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SEA BREEZE-AIDED CONVERGENCE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
WHILE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS ON THE MASS FIELD-RELATED
DETAILS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD DEVELOP NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES. GIVEN THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...AT
LEAST A CONDITIONAL NEAR-SURFACE-BASED SEVERE RISK MAY EXIST WHERE A
MARITIME AIRMASS/WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND...WHILE SOME ELEVATED
STRONGER STORMS WILL OTHERWISE BE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE GENERALLY
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND OVERSPREAD A SOUTHEAST-MOVING FRONTAL
ZONE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN
THE PRESENCE OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/STRONG SHEAR COULD
YIELD A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL SATURDAY NIGHT.

..GUYER.. 03/24/2016


Day 4
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QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DAY 4/SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-SOUTH AND TN/OH VALLEYS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL CONUS ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY DAYS 4-5. REGARDING THIS TROUGH...SOME TIMING/PHASING
DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
/SLOWER/ CONTINUING TO EXHIBIT GREATER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AS
COMPARED TO FASTER 00Z GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
HAVE ACCESS TO SOMEWHAT RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO THE
TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHILE
AMPLE FORCING/STRONG WIND FIELD WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SEVERE RISK
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TN/OH VALLEYS ON SUNDAY/DAY 4.

AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO DAY 5/MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS FL. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE VARIABILITY PRECLUDES
A GRAPHICAL RISK DELINEATION...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

THEREAFTER...AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
MIDWEST AROUND DAYS 7-8 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

..GUYER.. 03/24/2016
18 Mar 2016
Cliche has already created a thread for the southern states, figured one would be needed furher north for Thursday/Friday per SPC. Talking of delineating an area if trends continue.

QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE BY THE
MIDDLE/LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKENDS
FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...MEANINGFUL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE ABSENT ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AIR MASS MODIFICATION/NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD GRADUALLY
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH. WHILE A
SOMEWHAT SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN STATES TROUGH IS PLAUSIBLE
VS CURRENT GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS...AT LEAST SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS DAY 6/WEDNESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS. A MORE PROBABLE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT
RISK...COULD MATERIALIZE INTO DAYS 7-8 THURSDAY/FRIDAY INITIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER
VALLEY. AS GUIDANCE-RELATED TIMING/SPATIAL DETAILS BECOME
CLEARER...SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS WILL REEVALUATE POTENTIAL
INTRODUCTIONS OF AT LEAST 15-PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR NEXT
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

..GUYER.. 03/18/2016
2 Mar 2016
I'll stop short of flooding in the title for now as most of the river basins are low right now. When flood watches start getting issued I will change to reflect.

Trying to keep the heavy rain talk out of the severe thread for obvious reasons so figured why not.

WPC has high QPF numbers for the 8th and 9th

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And for 7 day totals

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This I believe correlates to the post Christmas historic flooding that was associated with then named storm "Goliath" by TWC.

Here are obvious differences but similarities are there as well

48 hour total then

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7 day QPF then

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A comparison in modeling

Then


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Now

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Last Visitors


20 Mar 2016 - 5:26


18 Mar 2016 - 20:50


14 Mar 2016 - 21:30


25 Feb 2016 - 21:36


22 Feb 2016 - 16:01

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