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WeatherMonger
Rank: F5 Superstorm
40 years old
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Springfield, IL
Born Aug-17-1974
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Joined: 26-January 10
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Last Seen: Today, 06:46 PM
Viewing Topic: December 24-26 MW/Plains/OV/GL Christmas Winter Storm
Local Time: Dec 18 2014, 05:49 PM
13,598 posts (8 per day)
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WeatherMonger

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14 Dec 2014
Slight risk introduced, figured if something does happen will have somewhere to talk about it.

26 Oct 2014
Just curious how we're supposed to topic new threads based on the SPC new threat levels? A bit on course of TWC naming winter storms but it's here to stay. Then again I remember several years back when SPC changed it up to its previous color scheme. General thunder used to be brown and slight risks were green. A lot of disapproval then as well, but it was short lived.

Anyhow, here's a place to talk about the near misses and what ifs to start the new week laugh.gif



Day 1



Day 2

15 Jul 2014
What a welcomed relief, hoping to break a few record lows for both highs and lows.

already tied a record low, and if we can stay below 73 we'll break the record for coolest high temp

Wish it could stay a few weeks rather than a few days.


QUOTE
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
830 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014 ...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT SPRINGFIELD THIS MORNING... THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN SPRINGFIELD THIS MORNING WAS 52 DEGREES. THIS TIES THE RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE...WHICH WAS FIRST SET IN 1930.
9 Jun 2014
Dates may have to be modified a bit as it approaches, but looks to be the next chance for severe weather for some of us.

QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CDT MON JUN 09 2014

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z ...

DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY 5-7 TIME FRAME. ON THURSDAY/DAY 4...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD BENEATH THE RIDGE...THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY/DAY 5 INTO SATURDAY/DAY 6...WITH SEVERAL OTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTED ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BLOCK THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THROUGH THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE POTENTIALLY HIGHER-END SEVERE CHANCES MAY UNFOLD. ..


LEITMAN.. 06/09/2014
15 May 2014
SPC mentioning this time frame for the next possible best chance.


QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z ...

DISCUSSION...

ABOVE-AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY CONTINUES ON THE LARGE-SCALE WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST...A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL STATES AND A PERSISTENT ERN CONUS TROUGH BECOMING CENTERED JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS TYPE OF BLOCKING PATTERN SHOULD BE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR HIGH-END SEVERE COVERAGE /ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS/. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY COMMENCE ON D4/SUN ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTO PARTS OF THE N-CNTRL STATES ON D5-6/MON-TUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IMPINGING ON THE RIDGE. WITH A CONTINENTAL AIR MASS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN GULF...THE INITIALLY MARGINAL QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN MAY LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RISK.

SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE TOWARDS D7-8/WED-THU WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER S-CNTRL CANADA/N-CNTRL CONUS AIDING IN A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL NWLYS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY OVERSPREAD PARTS OF A BROADENING/INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM SECTOR OWING TO MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION. HOWEVER...SPREAD IN GUIDANCE WITH THE TRACK/AMPLITUDE OF THIS IMPULSE IS LARGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...YIELDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONSIDERING ANY HIGH-END PROBABILITIES. ..

GRAMS.. 05/15/2014
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