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WeatherMonger
Rank: F5 Superstorm
42 years old
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Springfield, IL
Born Aug-17-1974
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Joined: 26-January 10
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Viewing Forum: Current Weather - United States
Local Time: Mar 1 2017, 11:42 AM
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WeatherMonger

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1 Mar 2017
Figured I would go ahead and get this started to equal out the winter/spring threads, winter was overtaking the forum again laugh.gif


While no delineation has been made yet, SPC mentions the possibility Monday for the tri-states area of IA/MO/IL. I'll add other regions if warranted.

While it might not amount to much, Spring is ruling the roost.

QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The potential for severe weather will be minimal Saturday-Sunday
(days 4-5) before some conditional risk perhaps develops over the
middle Mississippi Valley on Monday (day 6). The 01/00z operational
GFS model and the GEFS ensemble mean suggest a narrow corridor of
moisture returning northward into the MO/IA/IL vicinity. The
aforementioned models are more amplified and slower with the
progression of a mid-level trough moving from the western states
into the central U.S. compared to the ECMWF and CMC models. Due to
model variability and the seemingly marginal moisture return
scenario, will describe this scenario with model
predictability-too-low. The central U.S. disturbance will move
downstream over parts of the eastern U.S. as a surface low moves
into southern Canada. Surface high pressure will likely reside over
the central Gulf Coast states by the Tuesday-Wednesday (days 7-8)
period.

..Smith.. 03/01/2017
14 Feb 2017
Figured I would get a thread started that shouldn't lead to heartache and misery. Quite the stretch of 60 plus temps forthcoming.

Have a feeling we'll see multiple 70+ days here by this time next week.
3 Feb 2017
CV has a thread for southern US if he decides to modify that title for this region I'll delete this thread. Having multiple regions lumped into a single thread gets confusing at times.

Forbes going with TorCon's of 2's and 3's for a good majority of this regions forum members. Ready for Spring


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5 Jan 2017
This is for the forthcoming winter event no one wants to create a thread for laugh.gif

Day 6

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Day 7

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CPC with large freezing rain area spanning several days

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21 Dec 2016
SPC has delineated an area in Southern Plains for Christmas day with mention of a few tornados possible unfortunately.

Will add days/regions as warranted

Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2016

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Model consensus continues to improve regarding a deep cyclone and
intense midlevel speed maximum forecast to emerge over the Central
States on Day-5/Sunday, when deepening surface low pressure is
expected to move across portions of the Central and Northern Great
Plains. Strong low-level southerlies within the northward-building
warm sector will transport partially modified Gulf moisture into the
broader zone of ascent accompanying the larger-scale cyclone. The
most-likely area of overlapping surface-based buoyancy -- albeit
muted by cloud coverage -- and deeper ascent should be focused
across portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. In this region,
thunderstorms accompanied by primarily a damaging-wind risk, and
perhaps some tornado risk, could occur, given the strong vertical
shear and at least some (though minimal) buoyancy.

..Cohen.. 12/21/2016
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