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WeatherMonger
Rank: F5 Superstorm
40 years old
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Springfield, IL
Born Aug-17-1974
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Joined: 26-January 10
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Local Time: Mar 28 2015, 09:19 AM
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WeatherMonger

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27 Mar 2015
SPC mentioning the possibility of severe weather towards the mid to latter part of the work week. Forbes, in a reply to his facebook feed, mentions the GFS showing Wed-Thurs while Euro is more Thurs-Fri.

Dates and regions will be narrowed as the possibility becomes better defined.

QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LULL IN EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS...POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
INCREASE BEGINNING ABOUT D5/TUE AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ACCUMULATE OVER THE GULF AND ADJACENT STATES.
ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES BECOME INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED WITH
TIME...CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE OFFERS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF
CONVECTIVE INTEREST. A WEAK SRN-STREAM IMPULSE SHOULD APPROACH THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND D5/TUE. FLOW FIELDS ARE NOT PROGGED
TO BE STRONG...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL-SCALE AMPLIFICATION TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AROUND D6-7.
IN THE NRN STREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AROUND D6/WED WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH INTO THE WRN
STATES AROUND D8/FRI. ALL OF THESE FEATURES MIGHT SUPPORT POCKETS OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...BUT LOW PREDICTABILITY SUGGESTS
DELINEATING SPECIFIC SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS IS PREMATURE.


..GRAMS.. 03/27/2015
28 Feb 2015
Precip has finally pushed into our region, good luck and enjoy



2 Feb 2015
QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jan 6 2015, 11:50 AM) *
Going with the 40 day theme.

Valentines day Clipper anyone?


Had thought about trying to best CV's longest range system thread, but thought better of it. It's shown up for a couple runs and TR/BSR says it's a bit earlier than my 40 day count. Oddly enough it would be the 3rd cycle of the clipper thread(originally Nuri correlation) mentioned above. This cycle has given me nearly half of my snowfall to date, hoping to get one more from it. Really think this one will my last shot at snow, have no faith in southern streams after yesterday, it almost changed my outlook. But ultimately kept it unchanged


Let's see where it goes and what it does, left out some in betweens

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24 Jan 2015
Precip has moved into North Dakota

15 Jan 2015
Figured this would give a place to talk about the warm up without cluttering storm threads.

Currently 38, 2 degrees above my morning forecast high. Ready to turn my gray truck back to black this weekend.


Edit, do the dates look ok? Just went from the current date to before the next cold snap thread
Last Visitors


21 Mar 2015 - 12:06
PGM


8 Mar 2015 - 20:38


3 Mar 2015 - 21:54


1 Mar 2015 - 15:16


28 Feb 2015 - 9:46

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