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EstorilM
Rank: F5 Superstorm
28 years old
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Sterling, VA
Born June-11-1984
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Joined: 4-February 10
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Last Seen: 25th March 2013 - 08:20 PM
Local Time: May 20 2013, 08:37 PM
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19 Jan 2013
I had been monitoring the fropa for the ~21st timeframe for about a week now, and there appeared to be little-to-no immediate impact on my area (DC metro) - however after combing through the main thread and looking at the latest Sterling WFO discussion, I came across a very unusual set of circumstances that the models appear to be consistent about for Monday the 21st. This is even more interesting when you factor in the timing of the potential event with the Presidential Inauguration in DC on the same day.
I'll cut out the boring bits but this should get the thread started; Sterling NWS Discussion QUOTE INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE CONSISTENCY OF
BOTH MODELS GIVING LARGE UVV IN THE H85-H7 LAYER...WITH THE PRESENTATION OF THE OMEGA FIELD SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SEE IN SPRING/SUMMER CONVECTIVE SITUATIONS WHERE IT INCREASES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW REFERENCED IN THE ABOVE PARAGRAPH WILL HELP BRING IN SOME ATLC MOISTURE TO FEED INTO THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE FAIRLY STARVED OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS CONTINUE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MAX OMEGA...FAVORED TEMPERATURES FOR MAX DENDRITIC GROWTH...AND RH AOA 80% ALL OVERLAPPING IN THE VERTICAL AT THE SAME TIMEFRAME MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE ARE THE CLASSIC INGREDIENTS FOR SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS EVENTS WHICH ARE KNOWN TO SOME NEW ENGLAND METEOROLOGISTS AS A WINDEX/WINTERTIME INSTABILITY INDEX/ EVENT. WINDEX RESEARCH AND DOCUMENTATION WAS LED BY WEIR LUNDSTAT AT NWS CWSU NASHUA IN THE EARLY 1990S.
8 Nov 2012
The pattern has obviously slowed a bit since the 1-2 punch of a certain hurricane and nor'easter, and I've been wondering when things would change enough to look favorable for the next system to come through.
I'll leave the details to the experts, but after watching a few runs of the GFS - I do feel as though the models see "something" in this time frame which may come to fruition. The 06Z GFS looked to have some kind of disorganized mess with no clear ridge or temperatures; almost enough to say it had lost the idea of a storm - but the 12Z showed a much cleaner storm system with cold air pouring in quickly behind it, and a nice trough developing. At the very least, the GFS now seems to think that this storm/event will be enough to possibly bust the progressive pattern and bring colder temps in! I know it's a ways out at the moment, but 12Z shows precip entering VA at 312hrs putting it at 13 days out and within the cogitation category. 06Z mess:
12Z idea:
Either way, it's juicy..
16 Dec 2010
I expected the forecast thread to last a little longer, especially with the way these cold clipper systems have acted in the past - but radar show precip to the coast of SC and ewd across VA border already.
VA Radar:  NWS Snowfall Map - Storm Totals:  Local mets fcst primary impact on evening commute, but it's going to cause trouble in the AM as well.
23 Nov 2010
...besides the end of the world.
 Just curious from a software engineering point of view. I've never seen this before as well, is this kinda thing rare?
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23 Mar 2013 - 23:06
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 20th May 2013 - 08:37 PM |