Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Profile
Personal Photo
Rating
 
Options
Options
Personal Statement
EstorilM doesn't have a personal statement currently.
Personal Info
EstorilM
Rank: F5 Superstorm
30 years old
Male
Sterling, VA
Born June-11-1984
Interests
No Information
Statistics
Joined: 4-February 10
Profile Views: 2,190*
Last Seen: 16th May 2014 - 01:38 PM
Local Time: Oct 22 2014, 01:23 AM
1,378 posts (1 per day)
Contact Information
AIM No Information
Yahoo No Information
ICQ No Information
MSN No Information
Contact Private
* Profile views updated each hour

EstorilM

Member

***


Topics
Posts
Comments
Friends
My Content
19 Jan 2013
I had been monitoring the fropa for the ~21st timeframe for about a week now, and there appeared to be little-to-no immediate impact on my area (DC metro) - however after combing through the main thread and looking at the latest Sterling WFO discussion, I came across a very unusual set of circumstances that the models appear to be consistent about for Monday the 21st. This is even more interesting when you factor in the timing of the potential event with the Presidential Inauguration in DC on the same day.

I'll cut out the boring bits but this should get the thread started;
Sterling NWS Discussion

QUOTE
INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE CONSISTENCY OF
BOTH MODELS GIVING LARGE UVV IN THE H85-H7 LAYER...WITH THE
PRESENTATION OF THE OMEGA FIELD SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SEE IN
SPRING/SUMMER CONVECTIVE SITUATIONS WHERE IT INCREASES EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW REFERENCED IN THE ABOVE PARAGRAPH
WILL HELP BRING IN SOME ATLC MOISTURE TO FEED INTO THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD BE FAIRLY STARVED OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST.

MODELS CONTINUE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MAX
OMEGA...FAVORED TEMPERATURES FOR MAX DENDRITIC GROWTH...AND RH AOA
80% ALL OVERLAPPING IN THE VERTICAL AT THE SAME TIMEFRAME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE
ARE THE CLASSIC INGREDIENTS FOR SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS EVENTS
WHICH ARE KNOWN TO SOME NEW ENGLAND METEOROLOGISTS AS A
WINDEX/WINTERTIME INSTABILITY INDEX/ EVENT. WINDEX RESEARCH AND
DOCUMENTATION WAS LED BY WEIR LUNDSTAT AT NWS CWSU NASHUA IN THE
EARLY 1990S.
8 Nov 2012
The pattern has obviously slowed a bit since the 1-2 punch of a certain hurricane and nor'easter, and I've been wondering when things would change enough to look favorable for the next system to come through.

I'll leave the details to the experts, but after watching a few runs of the GFS - I do feel as though the models see "something" in this time frame which may come to fruition.

The 06Z GFS looked to have some kind of disorganized mess with no clear ridge or temperatures; almost enough to say it had lost the idea of a storm - but the 12Z showed a much cleaner storm system with cold air pouring in quickly behind it, and a nice trough developing.

At the very least, the GFS now seems to think that this storm/event will be enough to possibly bust the progressive pattern and bring colder temps in!

I know it's a ways out at the moment, but 12Z shows precip entering VA at 312hrs putting it at 13 days out and within the cogitation category.

06Z mess:
Attached Image


12Z idea:
Attached Image


Either way, it's juicy..
Attached Image
16 Dec 2010
I expected the forecast thread to last a little longer, especially with the way these cold clipper systems have acted in the past - but radar show precip to the coast of SC and ewd across VA border already.
VA Radar:


NWS Snowfall Map - Storm Totals:


Local mets fcst primary impact on evening commute, but it's going to cause trouble in the AM as well.
23 Nov 2010
...besides the end of the world. unsure.gif

Just curious from a software engineering point of view. I've never seen this before as well, is this kinda thing rare?

Attached Image
Last Visitors


11 Feb 2014 - 11:34


23 Mar 2013 - 23:06


6 Mar 2013 - 0:02


18 Feb 2013 - 11:34


15 Feb 2013 - 0:16

Comments
Other users have left no comments for EstorilM.

Friends
There are no friends to display.
RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 22nd October 2014 - 01:23 AM