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Local Time: May 20 2013, 08:37 PM
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19 Jan 2013
I had been monitoring the fropa for the ~21st timeframe for about a week now, and there appeared to be little-to-no immediate impact on my area (DC metro) - however after combing through the main thread and looking at the latest Sterling WFO discussion, I came across a very unusual set of circumstances that the models appear to be consistent about for Monday the 21st. This is even more interesting when you factor in the timing of the potential event with the Presidential Inauguration in DC on the same day.
I'll cut out the boring bits but this should get the thread started;
Sterling NWS Discussion
INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE CONSISTENCY OF
BOTH MODELS GIVING LARGE UVV IN THE H85-H7 LAYER...WITH THE
PRESENTATION OF THE OMEGA FIELD SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SEE IN
SPRING/SUMMER CONVECTIVE SITUATIONS WHERE IT INCREASES EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW REFERENCED IN THE ABOVE PARAGRAPH
WILL HELP BRING IN SOME ATLC MOISTURE TO FEED INTO THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD BE FAIRLY STARVED OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
MODELS CONTINUE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MAX
OMEGA...FAVORED TEMPERATURES FOR MAX DENDRITIC GROWTH...AND RH AOA
80% ALL OVERLAPPING IN THE VERTICAL AT THE SAME TIMEFRAME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE
ARE THE CLASSIC INGREDIENTS FOR SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS EVENTS
WHICH ARE KNOWN TO SOME NEW ENGLAND METEOROLOGISTS AS A
WINDEX/WINTERTIME INSTABILITY INDEX/ EVENT. WINDEX RESEARCH AND
DOCUMENTATION WAS LED BY WEIR LUNDSTAT AT NWS CWSU NASHUA IN THE
8 Nov 2012
The pattern has obviously slowed a bit since the 1-2 punch of a certain hurricane and nor'easter, and I've been wondering when things would change enough to look favorable for the next system to come through.
I'll leave the details to the experts, but after watching a few runs of the GFS - I do feel as though the models see "something" in this time frame which may come to fruition.
The 06Z GFS looked to have some kind of disorganized mess with no clear ridge or temperatures; almost enough to say it had lost the idea of a storm - but the 12Z showed a much cleaner storm system with cold air pouring in quickly behind it, and a nice trough developing.
At the very least, the GFS now seems to think that this storm/event will be enough to possibly bust the progressive pattern and bring colder temps in!
I know it's a ways out at the moment, but 12Z shows precip entering VA at 312hrs putting it at 13 days out and within the cogitation category.
Either way, it's juicy..
16 Dec 2010
I expected the forecast thread to last a little longer, especially with the way these cold clipper systems have acted in the past - but radar show precip to the coast of SC and ewd across VA border already.
NWS Snowfall Map - Storm Totals:
Local mets fcst primary impact on evening commute, but it's going to cause trouble in the AM as well.
23 Nov 2010
23 Mar 2013 - 23:06
6 Mar 2013 - 0:02
18 Feb 2013 - 11:34
15 Feb 2013 - 0:16
19 Jan 2013 - 1:09
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