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alxz310
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Davis, CA
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alxz310

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22 Aug 2013
The southwest, particularly the areas of SE California, Southern Nevada, and Arizona have a good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and potential flash-flooding, associated with an influx of moisture from a tropical system currently developing off the coast of Baja California. This disturbance has a very high chance of materializing into a named storm, Ivo, and is forecast to drift to the NW along the Baja California coast. The storm itself, or the remnants (once it reaches the cooler waters off of Northern Baja), are not expected to impact Southern California at this time. However, a high pressure system to the east and a trough to the west will help to pull the moisture up into the Southwest. Currently the GFS is more aggressive with the moisture than the ECMWF and brings a very large plume of moisture, with 850mb dewpoints as high as 15-16C.

Right now, it is unclear how much, if any, activity will make its way north to areas such as LA and VTU counties, but inland areas of Southern California have a pretty good chance of rain. Either way, the remnants of soon to be Tropical Storm Ivo have a high chance of bringing heavy downpours and dangerous flash flooding to at least areas south and east of LA county.

Latest Special Weather Statement from the NWS:

QUOTE
Issued by The National Weather Service
Los Angeles, CA

Wed, Aug 21, 2013, 6:49 PM PDT

... A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS POSSIBLY SPREADING OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...

... AN UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK WILL WEAKEN ONSHORE FLOW... AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION COULD ALLOW FOR A MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA COULD SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM... HUMID... AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY... ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT... AND INTO VALLEYS AND COASTAL PLAIN.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN SOME DESERT... VALLEY... AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS COULD WARM TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID AIR MASS COULD ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION... OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES COULD NOT OFFER MUCH REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SOME VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS COULD ONLY FALL TO THE 70S... WITH 70S TO LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS SPREADING OVER THE AREA BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL PLAIN. CONVECTIVE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS... AND DANGEROUS CLOUD- TO- GROUND LIGHTNING.

PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR OR RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND IN THE AREA ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING THE COOLER PARTS OF THE DAY... BUT REMEMBER WHEN THUNDER ROARS... GO INDOORS. HEAT... FLOODING... AND LIGHTNING ARE AMONG NATURES DEADLIEST KILLERS.
24 Nov 2011
After a prolonged period of storms dropping down into California and an unusually wet November, it looks like the pattern is about to change with a 591DM ridge set to build into SW California. Some offshore flow will also send temps into the 80s in some areas west of the mountains.

3 Nov 2011
As we enter November, the recent dry streak in California comes to an end with at least two cold low pressure systems set to dive down into the state. Showers are currently affecting Central CA set to move down into the southern part of the state through the overnight and early morning hours. Cold air aloft behind the front (-28C to -30C 500mb temps) will also allow for a chance of thunderstorm.

Over the weekend, there is another chance of some precipitation with a similar system diving down into the region. Later on, yet another, much stronger and wetter storm might possibly move into the area
28 Sep 2011
As we head into next week, models are showing the possibility of the first significant pacific storm of the season to impact the West Coast with rain as far south as California. A few runs of the GFS have even brought rain as far south as SoCal, courtesy of a ~540DM low in the Pacific NW. In addition, some remnant moisture from former Hurricane Hilary could flow up into SoCal later this week and this weekend causing the possibility for a few showers and thunderstorms.

20 Jul 2011
As we enter late July and early August, the west coast will be smudged in between a battle of troughs moving through the west coast and the large ridge in the middle of the country. The marine layer will make appearances as the troughs deepen and warmup will ensue when the ridge dominates. Temperatures will range from below to near normal. At the present moment, the marine layer is firmly entrenched at the coast.

Another feature to watch will be the remnants of Hurricane Dora as it moves NW.
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Beck
Don't worry, I realized that a long time ago. Everything's cool. =)
1 Sep 2010 - 21:01
Beck
Hey, I just wanted to clarify that I wasn't on your ignore list or anything like that...it's just that I've noticed that you have not "spoken" to me lately & I wanted to make sure it wasn't something I said, or something like that.
15 Jun 2010 - 22:53

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