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Rank: F5 Superstorm
Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
Joined: 12-February 10
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Local Time: Jul 31 2014, 11:30 AM
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24 Jul 2014
OK - looks like its time for me to put a voodoo hex on the IMBY weather and open another thread. The next severe threat to challenge us is Sunday (p.m.?)/Monday (and may even go a bit beyond)
First, let's look at what SPC has to say about D3 which takes us to Sunday at 12z (7 a.m. here)
CNTRL PLAINS TO OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
S OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...A STRONG TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS SHOULD BE PRESENT FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TO MIDWEST AS
THE PLAINS EML PLUME IS ADVECTED E TOWARDS THE NRN APPALACHIANS.
WAA-DRIVEN ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SAT OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...CAPPING SHOULD
LARGELY INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE DAY. THE
DEGREE OF INHIBITION SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS COMPARED TO D2...OWING
TO MINOR HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLER 700 MB TEMPERATURES /ESPECIALLY E
OF THE MS RIVER/.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD FORM BY EVENING WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AN ORGANIZED MCS OR TWO MAY
DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST PROBABLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE SWATHS OF DAMAGING
WINDS DURING THE EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT. IF SHORTER-TERM MESOSCALE
PREDICTABILITY INCREASES...CORRIDORS OF HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES
MAY BECOME EVIDENT IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
Looks very well aligned to translate east from this position and give us plenty to worry about.
Next, the 0z GFS 4 panel (with mark up)
As you can see, the upper left panel represents the picture at H5 (500 mb), I have circled the two distinct areas of enhanced vort max, one already into PA and a second, more vigorous one dropping out of the lakes and driving the front to the south and the east.
Upper right panel is the surface - upper level picture 1000mb-500mb (I use this to discern where the surface feature main drivers are) - we see some return flow from the Atl ridge, but it's a bit weak. Still the preceding day should put down at least some low level warm moist air - just not a lot.
Lower Left is the H7 or 700mb Rh - or mid level moisture. As you can see, there is a decent slug of it present. So two elements necessary for severe storms are on the field - mid level moist and high level spin.
Lower right is the H8.5 picture and is a good indicator of temperatures. Among other things, I use this image to demonstrate when the corridor between warm air and cold air is narrow, This is a decent picture of where the front or boundary layers may be and the sharpness of that boundary. We see here that the corridor looks relatively tight and the best heat is to the south of the Mason Dixon with the cooler air still over the lakes. Puts the region directly in "no man's land" where, any military person would tell you - the most danger lay.
OK UTS - but what about the other models? Well, surprisingly enough the Euro images support the GFS. Mind now, the Euro does not have an Hr90 interval such that I've shown with the GFS, but when you compare you see the same elements in locations very close to the GFS depiction of 6 hours earlier
So FWIW, I think we'll be in for some more severe storm tracking as we wind up the weekend.
25 Jun 2014
OK - I thought I'd put up some early pro thoughts for this time period. If you've been following along in the preceding thread (6/25-26) you will know I've been watching this time period for a while now and see better than average chance of this threat unfolding. Let's hope things don't fold like some more recent events.
WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGING MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK...IN TURN...WILL BE LIFTED
NWD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER - WHICH IS VERY TYPICAL HEADING
INTO JULY. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA /MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO/ BY NEXT TUE-WED. PCPN
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG SERIES OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONTS PUSHING EWD
THRU THE PLAINS/MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY. WPC SFC
PROGS SHOW A LEAD BOUNDARY REACHING THE UPPER OH VLY ON 30 JUNE
FOLLOWED BY A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION
BY 1-2 JULY. USING PWATS AS A GENERAL GUIDE...THE HIGHEST POPS
ARE LKLY IN THE SUN-WED TIMEFRAME WHEN MSTR AVAILABILITY WILL BE
+1SD ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVG IN SEEING TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
So we see the heat and its been pretty well advertised, we have moist air mass and a defined CF coming in.
GFS for this time period shows some H5 spin, (but little H7 moisture feed - which may be OK given the ambient moisture present in the columns)
WPC D7 map - concensus map (for now)
Edge of the ring of fire, cold front, some shear possible from the developing short wave along the front. Most of the checklist is accounted for (again, for now)
10 May 2014
I thought I would go ahead and start watching next weekend for potential severe weather in the region. I had mentioned in the 12-14th thread that this time period could turn out to be the best most recent threat (which is not saying much, granted)
Anyway SPC is starting to also turn their heads in that direction
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 100825
SPC AC 100825
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
PRESENT FROM S-CNTRL CANADA TO NM AT 12Z/TUE. POOR PREDICTABILITY
PERSISTS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
POTENTIAL AMPLIFICATION OF AN EMBEDDED SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE.
THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS SCENARIO EVOLVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST ON D6/THU. THIS COULD INDUCE
STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES ACROSS A RESIDUAL WARM SECTOR OVER PARTS
OF THE ERN CONUS. BUT WITH MERIDIONAL WIND PROFILES AND EXTENSIVE
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING THROUGH AT LEAST D2-3 OVER THE CNTRL
STATES...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE LIMITED. EVEN SO...GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL ROBUSTNESS OF WIND PROFILES...AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK COULD DEVELOP.
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
The 0z Euro - decent spin profile and enough Rh and 850 moisture to work with.
0z GFS looks similar
6 Mar 2014
Creating this thread to cover the second of what now looks like two weekend systems. There is a thread for what is essentially Friday event.
I don't mean to create thread confusion but just wanted to put this one up separate in case it actually does develop into something more.
NAM keeps insisting that a SLP develops along the stalled boundary near Mason Dixon/Delmarva.
AT this point, it has little if any support from the Globals. The SREF set is picking it up though as one might expect
2 Mar 2014
Precip from this event is in the region - time to start real time observations.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
413 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...
413 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM EST MONDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.
* TIMING...THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FROM TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
26 Jul 2014 - 15:41
22 Jul 2014 - 20:01
9 Jul 2014 - 13:18
4 Jul 2014 - 6:53
11 Jun 2014 - 7:31
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