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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
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Viewing Topic: Long Range Fall 2014 Outlooks
Local Time: Oct 1 2014, 04:18 PM
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Undertakerson

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29 Sep 2014
I have a lot I might say about this potential. But it's getting late for me to wake up with the roosters so I'll just start with the AFD CTP outlook

QUOTE
000
FXUS61 KCTP 292303
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
703 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT
AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL
.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...mp;highlight=on

I'll have to look closer tomorrow to determine where I think the, almost certain, severe weather will set up. As of now, looks to be outside the region.
23 Sep 2014
A few have been discussing this system in other sub forums. Now that most all the guidance shows an impact to our region, might as well open this for discussion.

QUOTE
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE WED NITE/THURSDAY FCST...AS ALL
MED RANGE GUIDANCE NOW TRACKS COASTAL LOW ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO AT LEAST THE
SE COUNTIES ON THURSDAY. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH EAST OF NEW
ENG AND SFC LOW RIDING UP THE E COAST IS RESULTING IN ANOMALOUS
EASTERLY WINDS/PWATS IN THE 00Z GEFS ACROSS SE PA WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. GEFS AND OPER MDL QPF ALL SUPPORT AT LEAST LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD AND A CHC OF RAIN
AS FAR WEST AS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
. SOME ENSEMBLE AND OPER RUNS
INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL OF OVER AN INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF SE PA.
HAVE INCREASED MIN TEMPS WED NIGHT AND LOWERED MAX
TEMPS WED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/RAIN.

GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THAT COASTAL LOW WILL
EXIT THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO FAIR
AND MILD WX. ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE OVR THE GRT LKS IS THEN
PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST INTO PA OVR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE AREA
A PERIOD OF FAIR AND WARM WX THAT SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN
MCLEAR SKIES THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z NAEFS CLOUD OUTPUT
SUGGESTS. GEFS AND ECMWF 925TEMPS NEAR 20C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPS ARND 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH AFTN READINGS BTWN 75-80F OVR
MUCH OF THE AREA.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
4 Sep 2014
I'm on a roll with thread opening - not much action which I can't blame due to so much of the summer being somewhat "usual".

As others have mentioned in the severe thread, next Thursday is being portrayed by the GFS to be very rainy for the region.

I'll let the picture say it all to start - 12zGFS Hr 174

Attached Image


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html

Looks like a classic heavy precip event - western ridge, deep negative trough, phased (to some extent at least) northern stream and southern (via Norbert). If this were winter, the thread would have been started 3 days ago and already have 7-10 pages

Even at this stage the QPF output is noteable (12z GFS precip, via Twisterdata)

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=...p;archive=false

Appears to have a tap of the H7 levels and H8.5 from both the GOM and Atl - though not long duration at the same time. A day ago the GFS made this system eject at Delmarva Penn, last night I think GFS had it up the W Apps, now today - middle ground.

Post storm, via the Euro Hr 216- notice anything you haven't seen for quite a while? (hint, lower right panel)
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=...p;archive=false
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
3 Sep 2014
Set up is the very warm and humid air compliments of the SER dominating the flow via return southerlies to the region. Appears to be capped by mid-level warmth on Friday. Approaching cold front enters the region sometime late Friday or Saturday. Depending on which model one views, the passage would be either early Saturday (GFS/Euro) or late Saturday (NAM). Note that the system responsible for dragging the front along is currently in the NW US and is making some news of it's own.

http://www.kpax.com/news/weather-forecast-...likely-tonight/

12zGEFS - right hand panel showing the ensembles, which seem to be, if anything, mostly faster than the Op model

Attached Image


I'm thinking this could mean the front moves in even faster, something we saw in some earlier frontal passage situations, but I'm not sure of lately. That could lead to a Friday evening passage - but if it doesn't speed up by at least 12 hours, it would tend to make it a later Friday event and loss of heating would keep storms to less than severe.

However, the global big boys sometimes struggle with small details, even at D3 - so they may not be seeing something that the NAM is catching onto (I know, unlikely, but still...)

18z NAM

Attached Image


Beyond the timing differences, the GFS is trying to show some shearing of the system whereas the NAM keeps the H5 profile much more compact. We've seen the NAM exaggerate system strength in past situations, so that begs for discarding it here.

Yet, the system is quite potent as is

Attached Image

And the airmass awaiting looks almost, if not as much as, what we just sat through yesterday.

SPC gives this but scant mention in their D4-8 - so we have to figure this out for ourselves - for now.
1 Sep 2014
I thought I would open this just for those who want to make note of how warm it gets in their zones. With NWS State College pushing mid-upper 80, near 90 here on Tuesday as the SER continues to pump the humidity and the long wave H5 pattern supplies the southwesterly flow.


.
QUOTE
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE SHEARING
OUT MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH SOME RESPECTABLE WINDS
ALOFT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STRONGER STORMS
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS NOT OUTLOOKED US FOR SEVERE
CITING THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND PROGGED MEAGER LAPSE RATES...AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NW TO NEAR 90 OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF MILD AND LESS HUMID WEATHER. THE HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
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