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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
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Undertakerson

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6 Mar 2014
Creating this thread to cover the second of what now looks like two weekend systems. There is a thread for what is essentially Friday event.

I don't mean to create thread confusion but just wanted to put this one up separate in case it actually does develop into something more.

NAM keeps insisting that a SLP develops along the stalled boundary near Mason Dixon/Delmarva.

AT this point, it has little if any support from the Globals. The SREF set is picking it up though as one might expect

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes...mp;mTYP=roadmap

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes...mp;mTYP=roadmap

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http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_6z/wrfloop.html

2 Mar 2014
Precip from this event is in the region - time to start real time observations.

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QUOTE
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
413 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

PAZ056>059-063-022000-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0005.140302T2100Z-140303T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0014.140302T2100Z-140303T1800Z/
PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...
POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE
413 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FROM TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.


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23 Feb 2014
Since this threat has been showing up now on GFS runs and is joined by some other guidance, I decided to open this up (despite the current seasonal lull in forum activity). I have been eyeing this one as the "crescendo" storm referenced by the Mets at Weather World as strong STJ energy comes under the western ridge and phases in time to make this an important type system as it gets to our region.

0zGFS Hr228 4 panel

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0zEuro Hr216 (closest I have due to 24 hr increments)

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http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

Both show a phases system with some latent cold air to work with and a northern displaced Atlantic High. While neither of these is ideal for temp profiles, each may help a well developed system (strong) overcome late season influences and produce a good swath of wintry precip for most, if not all, of the region. Verbatim, 40N and south would struggle with marginal temps - but as discussed there are "helper" elements on scene.

The GFS depiction shows the best western ridge structure though neither is robust. The GFS is well placed as far as axis orientation on location.

Plenty of signals here for an important storm - it winds up pretty well as it gains latitude towards NE.

Looks like about 985 as it hits ME's latitude at Hr240.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

Last note - though I'm seeing this as a crescendo type storm - it does not mean that there will not be others as plenty of energy still seems to be upstream. But they don't show the same strength potential to overcome the ever increasing late seasonal pitfalls related to climatology.
18 Feb 2014
Well, this one caught most of us by surprise (not even a thread for it but NYCS and another member discussed it in the 20-22 thread which is mostly for a different system)

Not sure anyone wants to discuss this very late term short lived threat but since advisories are out, I figured might as well start a thread.

CTP issuance of ZR Advisory

QUOTE
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
309 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

.LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PAZ006-012-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-057>059-190615-
/O.NEW.KCTP.ZR.Y.0004.140219T0900Z-140219T1700Z/
POTTER-NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COUDERSPORT...RENOVO...MANSFIELD...
WELLSBORO...LAPORTE...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...
SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOO
SBURG...
BERWICK...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBA
ON
309 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A THIN GLAZE OF ICE OVER MANY LOCATIONS...WITH
THE HEAVIEST ACCRETIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE
POCONOS.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON...ENDING
THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...MAINLY ON UNTREATED ROADS AND
BRIDGES. SIDEWALKS AND METAL OBJECTS MAY ALSO HAVE A GLAZE OF
ICE.

* WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.
USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/CTP OR
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
SENDING AN EMAIL TO CTP.STORMREPORTS@NOAA.GOV...POSTING TO THE
NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET @NWSSTATECOLLEGE WITH
THE HASHTAG #CTPWX.

&&

$$


http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?...ry#.UwPHJTYo5dg

QUOTE
Tonight Patchy fog after 9pm. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 24. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Wednesday Freezing rain before 10am, then rain likely between 10am and 1pm. Patchy fog before 1pm. High near 40. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible.
14 Feb 2014
With the recent snow pack freshly delighting the winter weenie in all, we have a strong signal as indicated by several LR indexes and as alluded to or pointed to by JDRenken and others of a decent warm up for at least the span of days shown in the title.

With an expected strong W GLC, we should see decent southwest mean flow into the region ahead of the mid Continental trough. This will be, as I have mentioned in other threads recently, potentially bad for our areas hydrologically. Too warm too soon with this much snow pack and ice on mainstem rivers and we may need to watch for flooding concerns.

Recent runs of the Op models (not shown here due to time constraints) are backing off the severity of the warmth - which would be good for the hydro regions. Not so much for those wanting a real true warm up.

It looks to me, to be a period of non-sudden thaw - perhaps increasing the snow margin between those piles out there and our homes and roadways, etc.
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