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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
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Undertakerson

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26 Nov 2014
Precip has entered the region. Time for an obsx thread.

Attached Image


Current temps. look too toasty to support snow

Attached Image

SREFS increased by 2" in CTP land - now up to 10"

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes...mp;mTYP=roadmap

It does not feel like snow.

Storm is 1008mb and off the Carolina coast ATTM

Attached Image

CTP updated part of their disco

QUOTE
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MESO ANALYSIS AT MIDNIGHT SHOWS THE LOW FORMING JUST OFF THE GA COAST.
MODELS AGREE IN TRACKING THE STORM UP ALONG THEN OFF THE NJ COAST
BY 100 MILES OR SO. THIS SHOULD ASSURE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF EASTERN PA WITH SIG ACCUMS ALL THE WAY
BACK INTO CENTRAL AREAS.

HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE. INITIAL THOUGHTS FOR
THE NEXT UPDATE ARE THAT WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH WARNING
SNOW AMOUNTS OVER OUR VERY SERN COUNTIES WHERE A RAIN-SNOW MIX
COULD LAST A WHILE. HOWEVER I WILL NOT CHANGE THE WARNING
CONFIGURATION DUE TO EXPECTED IMPACT ON THE HEAVY HOLIDAY TRAVEL


Best yet - full day closure for yours truly, compliments of the Governor.

QUOTE
PCCD employees in the Harrisburg area are authorized a full day closing for Wednesday, November 26, 2014. This is subject to the provisions of Management Directive 530.17.



Here we go!
18 Nov 2014
I suppose we could have extended the recent storm thread, but creating a separate one for the cold element seems apropos.

This is no run of the mill cold shot, especially this early into the cold weather seasons. So, I decided it needs its own thread.

Some images...(used the Uni maps for their ease of viewing)

24Hr temp change

Attached Image

Temps - only S/E Coast, S Fl and s/w AZ and S CA have any real warmth this a.m.

Attached Image

The winds, they are a coming


Attached Image


A few discos

AFDCTP

.
QUOTE
SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

MEAN 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AS LOW AS 3-4 SD BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ENS MEAN 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -17C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS OF ONLY THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES TO ONLY THE
UPPER 20S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

RECORD BOOKS INDICATE THESE COULD BE THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGHS
FOR THE DATE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO ARND
30KTS TUESDAY AFTN...MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER
. AT THE
MOMENT...WIND CHILLS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA...BU5T
APPARENT TEMPS OF 5-10 BLW ZERO SEEM LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE W MTNS...PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR MID NOVEMBER


Boston, MA

QUOTE
WEDNESDAY...

SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 30S...AND ONLY LOWER
30S IN NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-30 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.
WIND CHILL INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE REGION
.

Sterling, VA

QUOTE
THE TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ON TRACK SO FAR AS THE
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS SURGES INTO THE AREA
...SO MINIMAL
CHANGES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR
MOST...WITH TEENS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 30 IN URBAN
AND COASTAL AREAS. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS OUTSIDE OF
URBAN AREAS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.


As one would expect many other disco use similar language - all of them mention this lasting until the 22d, when temps rebound nicely for the lead in to the Holiday week.

Currently 22F IMBY - a 15F drop overnight. No winds yet, most surfaces have dried and will reduce problems with black ice or quick freeze situation. The combo of temps and wind chill will make it feel like the Teens down here in CTP. This is about as cold as I can remember any stretch of weather in November.
1 Nov 2014
Opening this thread as I've been watching the evolution of H5 since this time frame has gotten within 240hrs.

In a pattern sprinkled with multiple bundles of energy, this has what looks to be benefit of the Bering Sea Rule. If I understand the BSR correctly, a strong trough out there pumps the ridge ahead of it. In this case, the ridge becomes part of the overall western ridge structure capable of allowing an eastern shortwave to slide into a longwave trough.

The result, as is currently the 12z GFS Op is a decent coastal system where cold air is close by. Of course, the current solution is likely to adjust quite bit as we get closer. For now, here's the Op run output

Attached Image


Again, another very progressive system - this time around though, there could be some benefit from a preceding cool air mass laid down in the 11/7-8 time pd.

At this point, only the inland region (well inland) of the Mid Atl and NE would see much frozen (read as elevation). But we shall see how the systems evolve upstream, to watch for potential differing influence.

Edit - Ensembles are somewhat all over the place but 2 or 3 resemble the Op solution.
9 Oct 2014
What appears to be the next major threat for rain occurs within this time pd.

The GFS has come in towards agreement with the Euro as to timing and potential for the deep mid continental US trough to, eventually, cut off and linger over the s/e US

GFS - 0z Op (via E Wall)

Note how deep the GFS has the H7 flow - well down into the tropics.

Attached Image

Euro (hr 168) - not quite as cut off as its earlier 12z run of 10/8 and not depicted to have such a deep tap root to the tropics.

Attached Image


Regardless, the flow out ahead of the mid US trough will promote large amounts of Gulf and Atl moisture as we pay the price for warmth, with the humidity and DP's rising.

WPC indicates PWAT Standard Deviation in the order of +1 - +2

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd
29 Sep 2014
I have a lot I might say about this potential. But it's getting late for me to wake up with the roosters so I'll just start with the AFD CTP outlook

QUOTE
000
FXUS61 KCTP 292303
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
703 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT
AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL
.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...mp;highlight=on

I'll have to look closer tomorrow to determine where I think the, almost certain, severe weather will set up. As of now, looks to be outside the region.
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