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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
56 years old
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Born May-22-1960
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On Fb as the WxWiinii
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Local Time: Dec 5 2016, 05:31 AM
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Undertakerson

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16 Nov 2016
Well, I went ahead and joined my PA brethren, Pocono Snow and JDClapper, in opening a thread that holds, at least, some potential for wintery type precip.
One of the other main reasons I open this is in homage to my friends who have these dates to start the search for the elusive monster white tail buck. (I no longer pursue such endeavor, but can appreciate that those who do would want some cold air and white on the ground)

The set up starts with the teleconnections - as a well forecasted Rex (perhaps Omega) block, sets up downstream during these dates

Attached Image


Note that we even see some rise in the PNA region. These two indicators are showing in the modeling as what was once a flatter wave (like the one before this one) is now not so flat and holds a transfer potential.

Simply put - when the Thanksgiving storm passes off the coast, it runs straight into the (then) still strengthening block. This hold up in the flow should yield predictable results, among other things, lowering the heights in the Atl.

That lower heights "field" if you will could be prime breeding grounds for a secondary cyclogenesis that would be in response to an incoming wave in the northern stream - the Euro is not quite out to this date, but one can see a shortwave in the Lakes and the low in the W Atl

Attached Image


Where can that GL shortwave go? It has no route to plow north or east of that location. Witness the block as shown on a map (red circles)

Attached Image

So, here's what the GFS Op run at 18z shows...caveman scrawl to show 1) as the T Day storm remnants; 2) secondary developing at coast; and 3) the inland wave and path as it drops out of the lakes.

Attached Image


At the start, this would be a rain/snow mix. As modeled it lacks cold air for most of the region - thus, it (now) looks like rain even well inland. (sorry snow lovers)

However, this system is way out in the misty distant future (credit to Fred G. of Weather World) so we can't focus on temps just yet. Sure, the odds don't favor big snow storm, but it's hard to knock this as it could be showing us a pattern that may be stubborn. At least it looks very much different than we've gone through recently.

Just to end with a S&G type image - to present this cold season's first "unicorn" (50/50 low for first time viewers) ohmy.gif Note also the long wave trough coming in on the heels.


Attached Image
5 Nov 2016
Hoping to get a chance to do some viewing tonight/tomorrow in the early hours.

This may be the only post in this section - given that the Taurids are not particularly plentiful, so they don't garner much attention.

So, if you do get to see some (reportedly, some could be fireball type), I hope you do give us an account of the experience smile.gif
28 Oct 2016
Thought we might need a spot to comment on the warmth coming up this weekend.

A week ago, I had thought we'd already be into this spell - as I told my Fb friends, I did not think the prior warm up qualified as a Indian Summer here in PA (because we had not hard frost prior to that - we now have had widespread frost events) and I called for yesterday and today to be the next chance.

Turns out I was wrong with timing, but right in spirit. Saturday and Sunday should feature truly pleasant weather, especially in the MidAtl, but could be felt in NE I would think.

I would have extended the dates through next week - if not for Halloween being a bit of a "glitch".

To save some time, and to spare you my further blathering

Attached Image

(source, Facebook page)

Double treat for the early viewers, and always enjoyable read from Good Ol' Vojo (on WPC extended desk). Even though an extended disco, I've bolded the reference to this time frame, call it the "beginning of the extended period", I suppose

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
112 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016

VALID 12Z MON OCT 31 2016 - 12Z FRI NOV 04 2016

...OVERVIEW...
ACTIVE JET STREAM FLOW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
ALONG/NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER --- MOST OF THIS MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. A PACIFIC TROUGH MIGRATION WILL BE THE PREVAILING
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LOWER 48 ---WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS
NOTED BELOW. AS IT (THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH) SLOWLY PRESSES EASTWARD
TO THE DIVIDE AND THEN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS---A PORTION OF
THE ENERGY IS SHEARED EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AND A
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS.

...MODEL PREFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
PREFER THE 27/12Z NAEFS/ECENS MEANS AS A BASELINE FOR THE PACIFIC
WEST COAST SYSTEM FOR DAYS 3-7. THIS GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE
FLOW ---ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HELPS WITH ---
SOLIDIFYING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND ITS SLOW MIGRATION EASTWARD
FROM THE OZARKS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH RESPECT TO A
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION...JUST ABOUT ANYTHING WORKS UNTIL DAY 5
WHEN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS PARTICULAR PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS
TO SPLIT/SHEAR IN THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN DIVIDE. AFTER DAY
5...SEEMED TO BE ENOUGH DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW---TO SUGGEST THE
PATTERN 'TRIES TO CHANGE' BUT MAY NOT.

FOR DAYS 6 AND 7--- THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND ITS 588DM HEIGHT IS
REASONABLY DEPICTED BY ALL THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS IS A GOOD SIGN FOR MORE OF A PERSISTENCE-TYPE
FORECAST (WARM/MILD CONDITIONS AT DAY 7) FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH.
THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE SOUTH--- IS WHETHER OR NOT THE PRESENCE
OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO (MAYBE A TUTT
CELL?) MIGRATES FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO ERODE THE WESTERN
FLANKS OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND LOWER HALF OF
THE MS VALLEY. AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE
REGION AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WOULD PRODUCE THE SUBTLE
'EROSION' OF THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE RIDGE AND COULD BE (NOT
WILL BE) -- MORE OF A 'GAME CHANGER' DOWNSTREAM BY DAY 6-7 ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

WHAT SEEMS TO LOOK LIKE A GOOD FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST (IN A
BROAD RIDGE PATTERN SENSE) AT DAYS 6-7...IS A TAD MISLEADING.
USING THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE 'WHOLESALE' ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA---PARTICULARLY NEW ENGLAND --- MIGHT NOT
BE THE WAY TO GO JUST YET. IN SHORT...THE 27/12Z GFS AND CANADIAN
TENDED TO BE STRONGER WITH THE OUTCOME OF SHEARED PACIFIC ENERGY
'CONGEALING' WITH EAST CENTRAL CANADA TROUGHING (ON/AFTER DAY 6
+/- 12HRS). BECAUSE THESE 2 SOLUTIONS ARE FASTER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF ---INVOF SOUTHEAST CANADA --- THOUGHT A
50/40 BLEND OF THE ECENS/NAEFS MEANS SHOULD WORK UNTIL SOME OF
THOSE DAY 6-7 DETAILS IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION AND THE
WESTERN FLANKS OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE BECOME CLEARER.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
OVERALL, THE LOWER 48'S MAX/MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER MILD FOR
THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER AND FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER
. THIS 500MB
RIDGE WHICH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST --- YIELDS DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A GOOD 10-20 DEGREES (F) ABOVE NORMAL
AND AN AIRMASS THAT IS A DRY CANADIAN ONE.

VOJTESAK


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

CTP disco

.
QUOTE
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday night will be mainly clear with light winds under high
pressure. Mild weather will return on Saturday with 850 mb
temperatures forecast to rise back into the +10 to +13C range -
allowing surface temperatures to climb into the 60s with l70s in
the south
. The next front approaching from the north may trigger a
few showers over the northern mountains late in the day. The front
will stall for a short time as it enters PA as a sfc wave forms
along the front back in the midwest. The upper short wave trough
sliding straight east over the area will help to shove the front
slightly to the south Sat Night. But the front won`t pass through
most of the CWA until late in the day Sunday.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models are in good agreement with a mild and reasonably quiet
weather pattern through the period. Showers are possible on Sunday
as a slow moving cold front sags south across the area. High
pressure will bring dry conditions with near seasonable
temperatures on Monday... highs will be mostly in the 50s with
some 60s in the southeast. High pressure over the southeast U.S.
will bring dry mild weather Tuesday through Wednesday with
temperatures returning to above normal levels. ECMWF/GFS and GEFS
are in good overall agreement with this pattern and confidence is
above normal.
20 Sep 2016
Place marker for discussion of this weekend's cool down/cold shot. Some interior sub regions to see their first frost(?) come Saturday/Sunday in the "wee hours".

A few GFS maps, just for illustrative purpose (IOW not an actual forecast, just an indicator)

Saturday starts the daytime cool down - these values are not that much below (but are slightly) we'd expect this time of year. But note that there are no "reds" above a line delineated by I-80.

Attached Image


Saturday night, we get pretty chilly even down here in CTP - certainly looks like those "exposed" regions that, typically get early frost - would see so in this scenario

Attached Image


Sunday looks like a really chilly day all around

Attached Image


Then Sunday night, the bottom comes loose from the barrel.

Attached Image


This cold shot appears to be interrupted for a day or so, but then could go back to "just as cold" on the 29th. I did not extend the thread dates to include those days, but I might IF the guidance shows a return (if for no other reason than convenience sake)

There is a typhoon that is recurving off the coast of Japan - so this does have some TR/EAR support. It looks like a "flat" recurve though, so I wonder if that is cause and effect to the transience of this shot(?)


Attached Image
5 Sep 2016
Just creating a space to place your thoughts and observations.

Here we go (again) in the Mid Atl region - this time, could be 5 days (or more) of 90+ temps. Humidity may be lower at first, but will also increase late week (9-7 and onward)

Looks as if Thursday is the apex of the values.

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
130 AM EDT MON SEP 05 2016

VALID 12Z THU SEP 08 2016 - 12Z MON SEP 12 2016

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN THE EAST LATER THIS WEEK...


...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT/PREFERENCES...

BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD (THU-MON) AS UPSTREAM RIDGING SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WOBBLES IN PLACE. ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OVERALL THOUGH THEY CONTINUE TO SHIFT THEIR THINKING ON
EMBEDDED SYSTEM TIMING/TRACK/DEPTH. A MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND
(18Z GFS/GEFS AND 12Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN) SUFFICES FOR THE THU-SUN
PERIOD AS ONE SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. BY THEN, THE MODELS DIVERGE
(ESPECIALLY THE GFS) IN THE WEST. THE ENSEMBLES PREFER TO DIG THE
TROUGH INTO THE DIVIDE WHEREAS RECENT GFS RUNS WERE MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. PREFERENCE BY NEXT MONDAY IS ENTIRELY WITH THE
ENSEMBLES (18Z GEFS AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN) THOUGH THE
DETERMINISTIC 12Z ECMWF WAS IN THAT SLOWER CAMP AS WELL.

TO THE SOUTH, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TAKES A WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM NEWTON INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY EARLY THURSDAY AND
THEN INTO THE SW FLOW THEREAFTER. IN THE EAST, POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE HERMINE SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. AS ALWAYS, PLEASE CONSULT THE NHC FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

LEAD FRONT INITIALLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT A
WARM SW FLOW INTO THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS
. ACTUAL VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE 90S AS FAR NORTH AS NY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW. PRECIPITATION
WILL FOCUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THOUGH IT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY, THE
MAJORITY OF ITS FORCING WILL LIFT INTO CANADA. MODEST COOLING WILL
BRING BACK TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE GULF, IF
IT MOVES THAT FAR NORTH. ENSEMBLES SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD BY LATER
THIS WEEK IN ITS TRACK, THOUGH THE MAJORITY KEEP IT SOUTH ALONG
25N.


FRACASSO
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