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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
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30 May 2013
Start off with SPC thoughts:
QUOTE ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300836 SPC AC 300836 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013 VALID 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS THE NERN U.S. IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO ON SUNDAY /DAY 4/. A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AND SUPPORT AN ENHANCED CORRIDOR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITHIN A LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ Twister data shows CAPE of over 2000 j/kg and Lift of nearly -8 but little shear for most of the region near 40N in PA on the 2nd. On the third, the shear increases to a modest to robust 40-50 region wide but only meager CAPE and that is focused on the 95 corridor. One thing for sure - 850 moisture is really strong and easily will ride the southwest flow into the region. Flash flooding may have to be watched as a mostly linear line up of training storms and heavy precip conspire to make things "interesting"
22 May 2013
After the recent back and forth with temps, compliments of BDCF's and Eastern cool troughs, the GFS and Euro both signal a strong warm up starting near the first of June.
The amplification of 5H appears to wane as a true "heat of the seat" s/e ridge pumps HHH into the region overall. It may not be record breaking territory but likely will be warm both night and day and for most of our region. The jet seems to lift back north into Canada and leave us in the "doldrums" a bit so the influencing ridge should be able to settle in for at least the first week.
This appears to be the real deal and the death knell for cooler temps. There is some signal in the LR (GFS) of yet another BDCF around the end of the pd but that's so far off it cannot be given much weight at this juncture. Even a that, the temps will be only relatively cool. I think, after this period, all are done seeing any 50's outside of some rain events (and at night). As a radio DJ I grew up listening to back in the 70's would have said "Three H's out there today girls, be sure to dress loosely" (  )
29 Jan 2013
"Super"Clipper just won't go away as the 6z GFS swings the trough negative at the last moment, tries to spawn a coastal off Carolina but it's too late. It does place a SLP exactly over Long Island and there's more juice into this run. I would say it was more like last night's 18zGFS.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/avnloop.html The trailer system is also much like the 18z GFS from last night - 0z broke away from the cold scenario - but 6z brings it back and with even more QPF than the 2/3 event. Looks like we may need two threads for this time pd.
27 Jan 2013
SPC has issued a D4 discussion for the convective nature of the approaching front.
QUOTE ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270930 SPC AC 270930 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013 VALID 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE THAT A POWERFUL AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE RAPID PROGRESS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH LATE D4/WEDNESDAY. A MID LEVEL WIND MAX IN EXCESS OF 100KT IS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COINCIDENT WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THESE AREAS. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A PLUME OF AT LEAST 1.5 INCH PW VALUES EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS PHL AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. QPF AND VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS FROM LATEST EC AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST A CONTINUATION AND/OR RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE FRONT AMIDST INTENSE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR. WHILE CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE RISK AREA WILL REMAIN LOW...EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING/MOISTENING TO BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGH MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF ALL BUT FAR SRN FL BY D5/THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO SHUT DOWN FURTHER PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AT LEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ..CARBIN.. 01/27/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT SPC link This thread is for the severe element ONLY as we have the storm thread for the period immediately after this. SKEW T's for C PA show a "notching effect" near the H5-H7 layers, this is one indicator of a jam of very mild air within an over all cooling scenario. This, to me, suggest the potential for convective activity. Winds in the H5-H3 are RAGING and the mid levels show potential of 40+- not a lot of crossover winds so organized cells would be squashed, but straight liners translate pretty well in such a set up. |
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12 Jun 2013 - 6:18
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 19th June 2013 - 02:24 AM |