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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
56 years old
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Born May-22-1960
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On Fb as the WxWiinii
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Local Time: Jun 26 2016, 06:42 PM
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Undertakerson

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8 Jun 2016
If at first, you don't succeed, try to open a severe thread again.

Just to keep this separate from the cool shot discussion. If JD wants to merge, I have no issues

D4 SPC disco

QUOTE
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080809
SPC AC 080809

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2016

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY
FROM OHIO AND POSSIBLY SERN LOWER MI ACROSS PA AND PERHAPS EXTENDING
EWD INTO SURROUNDING STATES.
ECMWF SHOWS STORMS FROM LAKE ERIE INTO
CENTRAL AND ERN PA DURING THE DAY...CONTINUING ACROSS NJ SAT
EVENING...WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER W FROM WRN PA INTO OH. GIVEN
AMPLE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FROM THE W...A CORRIDOR OF SEVERE APPEARS LIKELY ALTHOUGH PRECISE
PLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST RISK WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT IN LATER
OUTLOOKS
.
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.


Attached Image

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

AFDCTP
QUOTE
A corridor of severe weather potential/northwest flow convective
event remains a concern on Saturday /June 11th/ as models depict a
shortwave trough rounding the hot Central U.S. upper ridge with
strong jet max nosing into PA. SPC maintained their previous 15%
severe prob/D4 SLGT risk over central PA, noting some level of
increasing confidence in severe storm potential although the exact
placement of greatest risk is still in questions. We will continue
to highlight the severe weather risk fro Saturday, June 11th in
the HWO.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
1 Jun 2016
Happy meteo summer, gang.

A few mentions in some of the a.m. disco's, have prompted the creation of this thread so that we have a place to discuss the potential.


SPC - yesterday's disco, waiting for today's updates which should be out shortly.

QUOTE
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 310853
SPC AC 310853

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD
APPEARS TO RESIDE NEAR /DAY 4/ AND E /DAY 5 AND BEYOND/ OF THE MS
VALLEY...AS UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS INTO AND THEN EXPANDS OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE AMPLITUDE/EVOLUTION OF THE
EVOLVING TROUGH IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE ECMWF VS. THE
GFS...AND AS SUCH TIMING OF THE ADVANCE OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN U.S. IS ALSO UNCERTAIN.

THE MAIN RISK DAY 4 /FRI. 6-3/ APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE UPPER
OH VALLEY...AS THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW SHIFT ACROSS MN AND INTO WI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH EARLIER/ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED WITHIN A ZONE OF
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW...IT APPEARS THAT DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE MN/WI REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY BE HINDERED. AS
SUCH...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCTION OF A 15% RISK AREA ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AREA ATTM.

DAY 5...THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY
EWD...THOUGH IT APPEARS ATTM THAT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
.

LATER IN THE PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH EXPANDS INTO THE ERN U.S. BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS EVOLUTION INCREASING
...NO AREAL
HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE INCLUDED THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 05/31/2016


Attached Image



AFD-CTP

QUOTE
More showers for Sunday into Monday...as a jet max moves across
the area. Starting to see signs that dry intrusion and dynamics
could support not only thunder...but even strong storms
18 May 2016
Well, I suppose I could have opened this sooner - but, again, just providing a spot for thoughts, etc. on this weekend's rain.

May open a corresponding warm up thread though for next week's start (actually from Sunday-Wed or so).

Back on subject - the threatening closed low has, in seeming confirmation of the UK Met forecast, been modeling to have a bit less influence than thought just two days ago (and yesterday with that retro action the GFS/Euro were signaling - something neither really shows in the latest guidance)

Where the models had, at one time, shoved the 1.5" precip up through PA, it now appears to be more of a S PA and coastal region of MidAtl/NE concern. Not that many areas escape with much better (possible exception of NW PA where drier air should prevail, fewer clouds but still chilly)

Anyway, the trend had been for less QPF, until today's 12z suite which looks like a return to a juicy soaker on Saturday.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=...conus&dpdt=

Although WPC still likes the "lesser" call of only about a half inch. Of course, S. of PA has always been in the "ground zero" zone

Attached Image


SREF Plumes for KMDT - only one or two outliers that have the "greater" amounts (> 0.5")

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

I'm going with the "under" on this one. What do you guys think?
13 May 2016
Thought I might as well make a place marker for what could be some feisty storms associated with the incoming cold front. (surprised no one has opened a cold shot thread)

Being a bit lazy with it, so I can't gripe. Here's CTP P&C outlook


QUOTE
Saturday

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce small hail and gusty winds. High near 68. Southwest wind 5 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.


Saturday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. West wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms


Latest 4K NAM (via EWall) suggests the main push is later tomorrow afternoon - especially once the line with the front, gets east of the Allegheny front.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/rloop.html

We'll have to see just how much to eastern part of the sub region gets into enough sun to destabilize the air mass out ahead of the incoming CF. There is some hint in the NAM that a front runner line weakens the warmth just a bit before the main thrust.

Just something to talk about - we haven't had a thread in a while.
1 Apr 2016
I wanted to create a space for any discussion relative to the pending threat of strong to severe storms, associated with the incoming cold front and energy

QUOTE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY...
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND INTO WRN VA FRIDAY MORNING...ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KT SWLY
LOW-LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH INTENSIFYING OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND 100 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR VIA PERSISTENT SWLY SFC WINDS WITH
MID 60S F DEWPOINTS TO THE DELMARVA SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.
IMPRESSIVE SWLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AS WELL AS VEERING
IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH 200-300 M2/S2 SRH OVER ERN VA/NC POINT
TOWARDS SEVERE WIND AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WITH BOWS AND/OR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AROUND 18Z.
THE WEAK INSTABILITY
AND COMPLEX STORM MODE WILL PRECLUDE GREATER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES...BUT A SMALL CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED RISK COULD
EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE ACROSS VA AND NC


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Attached Image
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