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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
55 years old
Male
Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Born May-22-1960
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On Fb as the WxWiinii
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Joined: 12-February 10
Profile Views: 29,235*
Last Seen: Today, 08:37 AM
Local Time: Apr 30 2016, 11:02 AM
18,825 posts (8 per day)
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Undertakerson

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1 Apr 2016
I wanted to create a space for any discussion relative to the pending threat of strong to severe storms, associated with the incoming cold front and energy

QUOTE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY...
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND INTO WRN VA FRIDAY MORNING...ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KT SWLY
LOW-LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH INTENSIFYING OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND 100 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR VIA PERSISTENT SWLY SFC WINDS WITH
MID 60S F DEWPOINTS TO THE DELMARVA SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.
IMPRESSIVE SWLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AS WELL AS VEERING
IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH 200-300 M2/S2 SRH OVER ERN VA/NC POINT
TOWARDS SEVERE WIND AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WITH BOWS AND/OR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AROUND 18Z.
THE WEAK INSTABILITY
AND COMPLEX STORM MODE WILL PRECLUDE GREATER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES...BUT A SMALL CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED RISK COULD
EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE ACROSS VA AND NC


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

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4 Mar 2016
I don't have time to add much, but wanted to make a place for any discussion on the clipper moving through after todays event.

Doesn't look like much on some models, but a coating to a couple inches is possible for some.

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24 Feb 2016
Decided to hit the trigger on these dates. We have an earlier date range which, I believe, is actually for this southern energy. But since there is a northern wave moving through part of the region also at that time. I decided that we should keep the discussions separate, so went ahead and opened this one.

Some spaghetti from the MREF

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GFS OP - phased and "cuts"


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Euro - not phased



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EPS

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Some blocking downstream
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17 Jan 2016
Decided to open an obsx thread because snow is breaking out in VA and lower MidAtl. Arctic front could lay down some accumulation through the Apps.

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1 Dec 2015
I've been thinking that this time period starts to show some harbinger of change.

The Euro Op run 12z today

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We see that a trough shortwave combination have spawned a SLP off the EC, near NJ. The storm appears to have some upper level cold air to tap. On a side note, look at the negative heights near Greenland - they are showing a sign of moving along - that feature has been keeping the NAO at its present positive state, once it leaves the atmosphere responds with HP in the vacuum.

Now the GFS 18z ( time stamp edited from original)

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The extent to which that cold pool can be tapped is important to precip types and would still be a question mark at this point in time.

So -now we see a couple of storms not really looking at the cutter path, or being involved in some sort of tandem SLP development. This to me, bodes well for snow lovers as we move along into the traditionally colder months. Should the LR blocking be correct (GFS based shown) then it could become more of a "game on" situation for the heretofore "boring" EC weather.
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