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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
56 years old
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Born May-22-1960
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On Fb as the WxWiinii
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Joined: 12-February 10
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Local Time: May 31 2016, 03:58 PM
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Undertakerson

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18 May 2016
Well, I suppose I could have opened this sooner - but, again, just providing a spot for thoughts, etc. on this weekend's rain.

May open a corresponding warm up thread though for next week's start (actually from Sunday-Wed or so).

Back on subject - the threatening closed low has, in seeming confirmation of the UK Met forecast, been modeling to have a bit less influence than thought just two days ago (and yesterday with that retro action the GFS/Euro were signaling - something neither really shows in the latest guidance)

Where the models had, at one time, shoved the 1.5" precip up through PA, it now appears to be more of a S PA and coastal region of MidAtl/NE concern. Not that many areas escape with much better (possible exception of NW PA where drier air should prevail, fewer clouds but still chilly)

Anyway, the trend had been for less QPF, until today's 12z suite which looks like a return to a juicy soaker on Saturday.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=...conus&dpdt=

Although WPC still likes the "lesser" call of only about a half inch. Of course, S. of PA has always been in the "ground zero" zone

Attached Image


SREF Plumes for KMDT - only one or two outliers that have the "greater" amounts (> 0.5")

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

I'm going with the "under" on this one. What do you guys think?
13 May 2016
Thought I might as well make a place marker for what could be some feisty storms associated with the incoming cold front. (surprised no one has opened a cold shot thread)

Being a bit lazy with it, so I can't gripe. Here's CTP P&C outlook


QUOTE
Saturday

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce small hail and gusty winds. High near 68. Southwest wind 5 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.


Saturday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. West wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms


Latest 4K NAM (via EWall) suggests the main push is later tomorrow afternoon - especially once the line with the front, gets east of the Allegheny front.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/rloop.html

We'll have to see just how much to eastern part of the sub region gets into enough sun to destabilize the air mass out ahead of the incoming CF. There is some hint in the NAM that a front runner line weakens the warmth just a bit before the main thrust.

Just something to talk about - we haven't had a thread in a while.
1 Apr 2016
I wanted to create a space for any discussion relative to the pending threat of strong to severe storms, associated with the incoming cold front and energy

QUOTE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY...
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND INTO WRN VA FRIDAY MORNING...ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KT SWLY
LOW-LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH INTENSIFYING OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND 100 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR VIA PERSISTENT SWLY SFC WINDS WITH
MID 60S F DEWPOINTS TO THE DELMARVA SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.
IMPRESSIVE SWLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AS WELL AS VEERING
IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH 200-300 M2/S2 SRH OVER ERN VA/NC POINT
TOWARDS SEVERE WIND AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WITH BOWS AND/OR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AROUND 18Z.
THE WEAK INSTABILITY
AND COMPLEX STORM MODE WILL PRECLUDE GREATER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES...BUT A SMALL CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED RISK COULD
EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE ACROSS VA AND NC


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Attached Image
4 Mar 2016
I don't have time to add much, but wanted to make a place for any discussion on the clipper moving through after todays event.

Doesn't look like much on some models, but a coating to a couple inches is possible for some.

Attached Image
24 Feb 2016
Decided to hit the trigger on these dates. We have an earlier date range which, I believe, is actually for this southern energy. But since there is a northern wave moving through part of the region also at that time. I decided that we should keep the discussions separate, so went ahead and opened this one.

Some spaghetti from the MREF

Attached Image


GFS OP - phased and "cuts"


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Euro - not phased



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EPS

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Some blocking downstream
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