If you're not enjoying life as much as I am, it's not my fault!
Rank: F5 Superstorm
55 years old
Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
On Fb as the WxWiinii
Joined: 12-February 10
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Local Time: Jul 31 2015, 03:20 AM
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10 Jul 2015
I had a whole long post with many illustrated with a lot of words. Then I went to post it and something happened w/the PC.
So here's the abbreviated version - along with a snippet from my Fb weather page.
Monday has my attention as another severe storm threat shapes up. Unlike yesterday's threat, this time - the elements seem to mesh well. The result should be much more noteworthy. I expect most of Central and Eastern PA to be in for a very rough time. I'll try to pin down some timing for you as we get some more guidance to review.
NWS already displaying 50% POPs of T storms
20 Jun 2015
Well gang, it's finally looking like it's going to happen! The much discussed, ballyhood and otherwise hyped golf throw down challenge is scheduled. Plans are being finalized as I type this.
MidAtl members ST, RyanDuff, rtcemc, and yours truly will be slamming off the tee boxes and hacking up the fairways on 7/1/2015.
With due apologies for not being able to arrange a full out forum member outing, I thought you might like to participate, however tangentially, through this thread.
Here are some suggested subject on which you can provide your outlook (trying to keep the weather theme in here somewhere)
On the day of the outing ( in E PA) the weather Gods will:
A) Smile favorably upon the foursome - upper 70's, partly cloudy, slight breeze
Exact vengeance upon the foursome - lower to mid 70's, moderate rain with ch/tshower, winds N >10mph
C) Make life miserable during the round - mid 80's, humid, no breeze
D) Who cares? I was not invited so it's raspberries, to each of them.
AND to keep it silly
Forecast the biggest gaff (as decided among the outing group) will be seen, on course, that day.
Or you could just put up general forecast thoughts - (remember this will be in East Central PA).
14 Jun 2015
Gaining confidence in the development of tropical activity in the GOM, via current
Let's start with the WPC disco
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
VALID 12Z WED JUN 17 2015 - 12Z SUN JUN 21 2015
*** THE WRN GULF COAST/ARK-LA-TEX IS VULNERABLE TO EXCESSIVE RAINS
THAT SPREAD NEWD TO THE E-CENTRAL US ***
HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE SRN TIER
OF THE NATION NEXT WEEK...KEEPING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS
STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/NRN MID-ATLANTIC BACK TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A WEAKNESS/BREAK IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY ALLOW SYSTEM
ENERGY TO TRACK OUT OF THE WRN GULF...OVER THE S-CENTRAL U.S...AND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL US WITH POOLED TROPICAL
MOISTURE. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED TROUGH NOW OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHIFT INLAND TO TEMPORALLY SUPPRESS RIDGING
IN THE WEST NEXT WEEK AS REPLACED BY TRANSIENT MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING THAT WORKS INTO THE N-CENTRAL US NEXT WEEKEND.
...MODEL EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES...
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN...BUT HAS YET TO LOCK IN ON SOME IMPORTANT DETAIL
DIFFERENCES. AN EARLY FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE BREAK/WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE EVOLUTION OF ANY TROPICAL ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE WRN GULF AS MONITORED BY THE NHC. LATER NEXT
WEEK...UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE DEEP VORTEX OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST HAVE LED TO VARYING MASS FIELD AND CONVECTIVE EMPHASIS
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CONUS. GIVEN THE CONTINUED FLUCTUATIONS AND
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...THE WPC MEDIUM-RANGE
FORECAST SUITE WAS LARGELY BASED OFF A MORE STABLE 18 UTC GEFS
MEAN AND 12 UTC NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS COMPOSITE.
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...
THE WRN GULF COAST TO THE ARK-LA-TEX WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO
HEAVY RAINS INTO MID-LATE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
GET PULLED NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES AS WELL AS THE EVOLUTION
OF THE IMPULSE OF SYSTEM ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE WRN GULF. HEAVY
RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE
N-CENTRAL US WITH APPROACH OF WRN US HEIGHT FALLS/TROUGHING AS
WELL AS NEAR LINGERING/WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES STALLED OVER THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...AND NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
UNDERNEATH BENEATH THE MAIN RIDGE ALOFT...EXPECT NEAR RECORD HIGHS
OVER PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO WITH APPROACH OF HURRICANE
CARLOS THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N AND 100.1 W AS OF THE 03 UTC
As I posted in the 91-L Tropical thread, this set up is supported by recent 06142015 00z GFS and Euro models which suggest that the system has an affinity to the mid-continental H5 trough, but does not become entrained fully into that flow. Instead, it maintain semi integrity as a quazi cutoff that sort of drifts beneath the trough flow and focuses on a stalled mid lat front draped across our region from VA-S NE.
(look at H5 from Hr72-180).
This week's precip from convection could set the stage for saturated ground as the predecessor/set up to this threat.
I'll try to add more later. Just wanted to get the ball rolling (as it were)
4 Jun 2015
If it is early week here in PA, a storm HAS to be in the offing
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL
SWRLY FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE
AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
WNW FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
I'll try to add some maps and detail, WPC disco, etc. - later on today.
Just thought I'd open this so we have something (other than below average temps) to discuss.
Edit - I guess I must really love the month of MAY! (original title) - my mind refuses to acknowledge it as history.
21 May 2015
Since tomorrow is the very important start to the Holiday weekend - and because we have a split decision cool-warm, I thought it would be worthy of discussion.
We go from below average temps - to slightly above in much of the region - evidenced by the current CTP forecasts
FXUS61 KCTP 212129
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
529 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER CHILLY START TO THE WEEKEND. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
I do see some potential for storms to herald the end of the Holiday, but the set up is marginal and depends on the progress of what appears to be a few warm fronts.
The H5 flow wants to jump well to the north and leave us under the influence of a weak but steady feed from the south and west
Without much spin in the atmosphere, I would think most storms would have to rely more on temperature contrast if they are to become anything at all. Most likely we'll see "garden variety" T storms and mostly well below severe.
So enjoy your weekend all, be safe and be kind.
23 Jun 2015 - 5:22
16 Jun 2015 - 15:00
16 Jun 2015 - 8:47
11 Jun 2015 - 15:57
20 Apr 2015 - 17:51
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