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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
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Undertakerson

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25 Jun 2014
OK - I thought I'd put up some early pro thoughts for this time period. If you've been following along in the preceding thread (6/25-26) you will know I've been watching this time period for a while now and see better than average chance of this threat unfolding. Let's hope things don't fold like some more recent events.

QUOTE
WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGING MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK...IN TURN...WILL BE LIFTED
NWD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER - WHICH IS VERY TYPICAL HEADING
INTO JULY. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA /MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO/ BY NEXT TUE-WED
. PCPN
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG SERIES OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONTS PUSHING EWD
THRU THE PLAINS/MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY. WPC SFC
PROGS SHOW A LEAD BOUNDARY REACHING THE UPPER OH VLY ON 30 JUNE

FOLLOWED BY A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION
BY 1-2 JULY
. USING PWATS AS A GENERAL GUIDE...THE HIGHEST POPS
ARE LKLY IN THE SUN-WED TIMEFRAME WHEN MSTR AVAILABILITY WILL BE
+1SD ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVG IN SEEING TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&


So we see the heat and its been pretty well advertised, we have moist air mass and a defined CF coming in.

GFS for this time period shows some H5 spin, (but little H7 moisture feed - which may be OK given the ambient moisture present in the columns)

Attached Image


WPC D7 map - concensus map (for now)
Attached Image


Edge of the ring of fire, cold front, some shear possible from the developing short wave along the front. Most of the checklist is accounted for (again, for now)
10 May 2014
I thought I would go ahead and start watching next weekend for potential severe weather in the region. I had mentioned in the 12-14th thread that this time period could turn out to be the best most recent threat (which is not saying much, granted)

Anyway SPC is starting to also turn their heads in that direction

QUOTE
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 100825
SPC AC 100825

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
PRESENT FROM S-CNTRL CANADA TO NM AT 12Z/TUE. POOR PREDICTABILITY
PERSISTS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
POTENTIAL AMPLIFICATION OF AN EMBEDDED SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
.
THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS SCENARIO EVOLVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST ON D6/THU. THIS COULD INDUCE
STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES ACROSS A RESIDUAL WARM SECTOR OVER PARTS
OF THE ERN CONUS.
BUT WITH MERIDIONAL WIND PROFILES AND EXTENSIVE
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING THROUGH AT LEAST D2-3 OVER THE CNTRL
STATES...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE LIMITED
. EVEN SO...GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL ROBUSTNESS OF WIND PROFILES...AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK COULD DEVELOP.

..GRAMS.. 05/10/2014

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

The 0z Euro - decent spin profile and enough Rh and 850 moisture to work with.

Attached Image

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html

0z GFS looks similar
Attached Image
6 Mar 2014
Creating this thread to cover the second of what now looks like two weekend systems. There is a thread for what is essentially Friday event.

I don't mean to create thread confusion but just wanted to put this one up separate in case it actually does develop into something more.

NAM keeps insisting that a SLP develops along the stalled boundary near Mason Dixon/Delmarva.

AT this point, it has little if any support from the Globals. The SREF set is picking it up though as one might expect

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes...mp;mTYP=roadmap

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes...mp;mTYP=roadmap

Attached Image


Attached Image


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_6z/wrfloop.html

2 Mar 2014
Precip from this event is in the region - time to start real time observations.

Attached Image


QUOTE
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
413 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

PAZ056>059-063-022000-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0005.140302T2100Z-140303T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0014.140302T2100Z-140303T1800Z/
PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...
POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE
413 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FROM TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.


Attached Image
23 Feb 2014
Since this threat has been showing up now on GFS runs and is joined by some other guidance, I decided to open this up (despite the current seasonal lull in forum activity). I have been eyeing this one as the "crescendo" storm referenced by the Mets at Weather World as strong STJ energy comes under the western ridge and phases in time to make this an important type system as it gets to our region.

0zGFS Hr228 4 panel

Attached Image


0zEuro Hr216 (closest I have due to 24 hr increments)

Attached Image


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

Both show a phases system with some latent cold air to work with and a northern displaced Atlantic High. While neither of these is ideal for temp profiles, each may help a well developed system (strong) overcome late season influences and produce a good swath of wintry precip for most, if not all, of the region. Verbatim, 40N and south would struggle with marginal temps - but as discussed there are "helper" elements on scene.

The GFS depiction shows the best western ridge structure though neither is robust. The GFS is well placed as far as axis orientation on location.

Plenty of signals here for an important storm - it winds up pretty well as it gains latitude towards NE.

Looks like about 985 as it hits ME's latitude at Hr240.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

Last note - though I'm seeing this as a crescendo type storm - it does not mean that there will not be others as plenty of energy still seems to be upstream. But they don't show the same strength potential to overcome the ever increasing late seasonal pitfalls related to climatology.
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