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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
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Viewing Topic: October 31st-November 2nd Mid Atl/NE Storm
Local Time: Oct 31 2014, 05:50 AM
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Undertakerson

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9 Oct 2014
What appears to be the next major threat for rain occurs within this time pd.

The GFS has come in towards agreement with the Euro as to timing and potential for the deep mid continental US trough to, eventually, cut off and linger over the s/e US

GFS - 0z Op (via E Wall)

Note how deep the GFS has the H7 flow - well down into the tropics.

Attached Image

Euro (hr 168) - not quite as cut off as its earlier 12z run of 10/8 and not depicted to have such a deep tap root to the tropics.

Attached Image


Regardless, the flow out ahead of the mid US trough will promote large amounts of Gulf and Atl moisture as we pay the price for warmth, with the humidity and DP's rising.

WPC indicates PWAT Standard Deviation in the order of +1 - +2

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd
29 Sep 2014
I have a lot I might say about this potential. But it's getting late for me to wake up with the roosters so I'll just start with the AFD CTP outlook

QUOTE
000
FXUS61 KCTP 292303
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
703 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT
AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL
.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...mp;highlight=on

I'll have to look closer tomorrow to determine where I think the, almost certain, severe weather will set up. As of now, looks to be outside the region.
23 Sep 2014
A few have been discussing this system in other sub forums. Now that most all the guidance shows an impact to our region, might as well open this for discussion.

QUOTE
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE WED NITE/THURSDAY FCST...AS ALL
MED RANGE GUIDANCE NOW TRACKS COASTAL LOW ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO AT LEAST THE
SE COUNTIES ON THURSDAY. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH EAST OF NEW
ENG AND SFC LOW RIDING UP THE E COAST IS RESULTING IN ANOMALOUS
EASTERLY WINDS/PWATS IN THE 00Z GEFS ACROSS SE PA WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. GEFS AND OPER MDL QPF ALL SUPPORT AT LEAST LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD AND A CHC OF RAIN
AS FAR WEST AS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
. SOME ENSEMBLE AND OPER RUNS
INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL OF OVER AN INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF SE PA.
HAVE INCREASED MIN TEMPS WED NIGHT AND LOWERED MAX
TEMPS WED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/RAIN.

GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THAT COASTAL LOW WILL
EXIT THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO FAIR
AND MILD WX. ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE OVR THE GRT LKS IS THEN
PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST INTO PA OVR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE AREA
A PERIOD OF FAIR AND WARM WX THAT SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN
MCLEAR SKIES THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z NAEFS CLOUD OUTPUT
SUGGESTS. GEFS AND ECMWF 925TEMPS NEAR 20C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPS ARND 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH AFTN READINGS BTWN 75-80F OVR
MUCH OF THE AREA.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
4 Sep 2014
I'm on a roll with thread opening - not much action which I can't blame due to so much of the summer being somewhat "usual".

As others have mentioned in the severe thread, next Thursday is being portrayed by the GFS to be very rainy for the region.

I'll let the picture say it all to start - 12zGFS Hr 174

Attached Image


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html

Looks like a classic heavy precip event - western ridge, deep negative trough, phased (to some extent at least) northern stream and southern (via Norbert). If this were winter, the thread would have been started 3 days ago and already have 7-10 pages

Even at this stage the QPF output is noteable (12z GFS precip, via Twisterdata)

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=...p;archive=false

Appears to have a tap of the H7 levels and H8.5 from both the GOM and Atl - though not long duration at the same time. A day ago the GFS made this system eject at Delmarva Penn, last night I think GFS had it up the W Apps, now today - middle ground.

Post storm, via the Euro Hr 216- notice anything you haven't seen for quite a while? (hint, lower right panel)
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=...p;archive=false
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
3 Sep 2014
Set up is the very warm and humid air compliments of the SER dominating the flow via return southerlies to the region. Appears to be capped by mid-level warmth on Friday. Approaching cold front enters the region sometime late Friday or Saturday. Depending on which model one views, the passage would be either early Saturday (GFS/Euro) or late Saturday (NAM). Note that the system responsible for dragging the front along is currently in the NW US and is making some news of it's own.

http://www.kpax.com/news/weather-forecast-...likely-tonight/

12zGEFS - right hand panel showing the ensembles, which seem to be, if anything, mostly faster than the Op model

Attached Image


I'm thinking this could mean the front moves in even faster, something we saw in some earlier frontal passage situations, but I'm not sure of lately. That could lead to a Friday evening passage - but if it doesn't speed up by at least 12 hours, it would tend to make it a later Friday event and loss of heating would keep storms to less than severe.

However, the global big boys sometimes struggle with small details, even at D3 - so they may not be seeing something that the NAM is catching onto (I know, unlikely, but still...)

18z NAM

Attached Image


Beyond the timing differences, the GFS is trying to show some shearing of the system whereas the NAM keeps the H5 profile much more compact. We've seen the NAM exaggerate system strength in past situations, so that begs for discarding it here.

Yet, the system is quite potent as is

Attached Image

And the airmass awaiting looks almost, if not as much as, what we just sat through yesterday.

SPC gives this but scant mention in their D4-8 - so we have to figure this out for ourselves - for now.
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