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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
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Undertakerson

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26 Mar 2015
Opening a separate thread to discuss the slight to marginal chance of severe storms. Confined mostly to the MidAlt states, the shear is upwards to 80 and the CAPE in the zones near 40N is plenty to touch off some convection.

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http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32309
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Sounding do not appear overly impressive at this time, but we'll keep an eye for rapid cooling at heights to show an increase as the strong front approaches. I would think Hail and wind are the main threats, but a discrete spinner may yet be in the offing.

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26 Mar 2015
OK - let's do this, why not?

You all have kept up in the 3/28-29 thread, mentioning this threat several times. The 06z GFS holds serve with the possible aptly named "Nor'Easter".

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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...=0&ypos=219

Verbatim, this would yield up to a foot of snow for NY on north and from a coating to a half a foot possible from the DC region up into the Poconos - a 985mb at the 40/70 benchmark would do just that. wink.gif
3 Mar 2015
Decided to break this away from the thread that is mostly discussing Part Two snow. This one is to cover the front end thump of snow, then ICE, then the rain which follows.

QUOTE
SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL GO DOWNHILL FAIRLY QUICKLY ON TODAY WITH MOISTURE
FROM BAJA MONSOONAL FLOW ADVECTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
ARRIVING INTO THE ALLEGHENIES BY LATE MORNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW
INITIALLY...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS MY CWA THROUGH THE MIDDAY
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

VERY MILD BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BRING A QUICK MIX AND EVENTUAL
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR ALL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THERE
MAY BE A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. CONSENSUS BLEND OF 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENS
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR AN INITIAL FEW
TO SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY
A SIGNIFICANT BOUT OF MIXED PRECIP/FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT PROLONGED ICE ACCRETION IS THE MAIN
THREAT...PRECEDED BY THE COATING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW FAR SOUTH AND 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN MOST AREAS (WITH UP TO 3 INCHES NORTH). THE
NORTH MAY NOT COMPLETELY MIX OUT...AND EXPECT AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN TO PERSIST THERE THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. ICE
ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
NCENT MTNS OF PA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN MOST PLACES TO THE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET
ACCUM...FOLLOWED BY FREEZING RAIN...GENERALLY FROM MIDDAY TODAY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.


The ice threat interactive map is looking like a horrible situation for most of C and E PA
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accu...&ptype=icez
26 Feb 2015
Some rollicking action being reported in the southern parts of the region - the reports from NC are noteworthy - looks like too much ice for my liking.


http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?l...=1#.VO7eiOk5Bdg

SOVA


QUOTE
Overnight
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 27. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Thursday
Snow, mainly before 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. North wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?l...=1#.VO7ewek5Bdg
21 Feb 2015
I have stated my liking this time period for a moderate to major storm to affect the region during this time period. It seems to be one of transition - as yet another ULL over the southwest, ejects into the main flow of the apparently mingling jet streams.

The models have, to one extent or another, strongly signaled this potential for the past 3 days as H5 energies try to come together at the right time.

The just in 12z GFS Op run gives us a hint of what this could become.

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http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html

0z 0221 Euro has a different idea.

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Somewhere in between? Or is one onto the idea before the other. The Euro did have this signal but not solution 2 days ago, but then lost it the next run. It's somewhat back in something that looks like the present (2/21) event or a hybrid of that.

Anyway, a long way to go and a storm going on outside right now. So I'll leave it to you whether you think this worthy of further discussion
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