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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
55 years old
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
Born May-22-1960
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On Fb as the WxWiinii
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Joined: 12-February 10
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Last Seen: Yesterday, 03:53 PM
Local Time: Aug 28 2015, 01:06 AM
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Undertakerson

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14 Aug 2015
The heat is getting turned back up here in the east. As the "seat of the heat" western ridge aloft retrogrades stage left, it appears as though it allows the Atlantic ridge to gain inroads back towards the region.

For one of the few times this summer, the WAR (western atl ridge) structure looks to do more than make a cameo appearance. Hr 228 of the 00z GFS seems to pump the ridge to upwards of 594dm

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_0z/mrfloop2.html

The Euro not so robust but still stout (OT - check out the BSR region at this time frame, upper left of the upper left panel)


Attached Image


Here's AFDCTP


QUOTE
QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
413 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.


And WPC

QUOTE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS...

PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL BE AROUND THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS EXTENDING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES... ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE [b]SFC/UPPER HIGH IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC
[/b]... AND SOUTHERN AZ/NM. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW
THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASE IN
THE WEST WITH THE LOSS OF THE UPPER HIGH AND [b]CORRESPONDINGLY RISE
IN THE EAST AS THE 594 DM ISOHEIGHT ATTEMPTS TO FORM
[/b].


FRACASSO
This could be one the major HW's of the summer for many in our region. I put an end date of 8/27 on this, as I expect the TR will have something to say about the "shut off" around that time - I'll adjust if/when conditions dictate. I would expect a round of seriously severe weather at the transition time period between this HW and the TR induced system(s).
4 Aug 2015
No need to add many words - carrying the convo over to here from the 3-4 thread

Attached Image


Attached Image


UKIE looks like NAM track, as does Euro - Euro a bit quicker. GFS - its usual progressive self (takes this OTS then retros back in)
10 Jul 2015
I had a whole long post with many illustrated with a lot of words. Then I went to post it and something happened w/the PC.

So here's the abbreviated version - along with a snippet from my Fb weather page.

QUOTE
Monday has my attention as another severe storm threat shapes up. Unlike yesterday's threat, this time - the elements seem to mesh well. The result should be much more noteworthy. I expect most of Central and Eastern PA to be in for a very rough time. I'll try to pin down some timing for you as we get some more guidance to review.


Attached Image


NWS already displaying 50% POPs of T storms

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?C...45#.VZ-SiulRFdh
20 Jun 2015
Well gang, it's finally looking like it's going to happen! The much discussed, ballyhood and otherwise hyped golf throw down challenge is scheduled. Plans are being finalized as I type this. ohmy.gif

MidAtl members ST, RyanDuff, rtcemc, and yours truly will be slamming off the tee boxes and hacking up the fairways on 7/1/2015.

With due apologies for not being able to arrange a full out forum member outing, I thought you might like to participate, however tangentially, through this thread.

Here are some suggested subject on which you can provide your outlook (trying to keep the weather theme in here somewhere)

On the day of the outing ( in E PA) the weather Gods will:

A) Smile favorably upon the foursome - upper 70's, partly cloudy, slight breeze

cool.gif Exact vengeance upon the foursome - lower to mid 70's, moderate rain with ch/tshower, winds N >10mph

C) Make life miserable during the round - mid 80's, humid, no breeze

D) Who cares? I was not invited so it's raspberries, to each of them.

AND to keep it silly

Forecast the biggest gaff (as decided among the outing group) will be seen, on course, that day.

Or you could just put up general forecast thoughts - (remember this will be in East Central PA).

UTS

14 Jun 2015
Gaining confidence in the development of tropical activity in the GOM, via current Invest 91-L TS Bill Remnants of once TS Bill has prompted me to open this thread for discussion. Not of the tropical system, per se, but the potential for heavy rainfall in the region.

Let's start with the WPC disco

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

VALID 12Z WED JUN 17 2015 - 12Z SUN JUN 21 2015

*** THE WRN GULF COAST/ARK-LA-TEX IS VULNERABLE TO EXCESSIVE RAINS
THAT SPREAD NEWD TO THE E-CENTRAL US ***


...PATTERN OVERVIEW...

HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE SRN TIER
OF THE NATION NEXT WEEK...KEEPING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS
STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/NRN MID-ATLANTIC BACK TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A WEAKNESS/BREAK IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY ALLOW SYSTEM
ENERGY TO TRACK OUT OF THE WRN GULF...OVER THE S-CENTRAL U.S...AND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL US WITH POOLED TROPICAL
MOISTURE. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED TROUGH NOW OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHIFT INLAND TO TEMPORALLY SUPPRESS RIDGING
IN THE WEST NEXT WEEK AS REPLACED BY TRANSIENT MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING THAT WORKS INTO THE N-CENTRAL US NEXT WEEKEND.


...MODEL EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES...

GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN...BUT HAS YET TO LOCK IN ON SOME IMPORTANT DETAIL
DIFFERENCES. AN EARLY FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE BREAK/WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE EVOLUTION OF ANY TROPICAL ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE WRN GULF AS MONITORED BY THE NHC. LATER NEXT
WEEK...UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE DEEP VORTEX OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST HAVE LED TO VARYING MASS FIELD AND CONVECTIVE EMPHASIS
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CONUS. GIVEN THE CONTINUED FLUCTUATIONS AND
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...THE WPC MEDIUM-RANGE
FORECAST SUITE WAS LARGELY BASED OFF A MORE STABLE 18 UTC GEFS
MEAN AND 12 UTC NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS COMPOSITE.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

THE WRN GULF COAST TO THE ARK-LA-TEX WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO
HEAVY RAINS INTO MID-LATE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
GET PULLED NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
AND AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES AS WELL AS THE EVOLUTION
OF THE IMPULSE OF SYSTEM ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE WRN GULF
. HEAVY
RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE
N-CENTRAL US WITH APPROACH OF WRN US HEIGHT FALLS/TROUGHING AS
WELL AS NEAR LINGERING/WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES STALLED OVER THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...AND NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES
.
UNDERNEATH BENEATH THE MAIN RIDGE ALOFT...EXPECT NEAR RECORD HIGHS
OVER PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEANWHILE...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO WITH APPROACH OF HURRICANE
CARLOS THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N AND 100.1 W AS OF THE 03 UTC
NHC ADVISORY.

SCHICHTEL

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

As I posted in the 91-L Tropical thread, this set up is supported by recent 06142015 00z GFS and Euro models which suggest that the system has an affinity to the mid-continental H5 trough, but does not become entrained fully into that flow. Instead, it maintain semi integrity as a quazi cutoff that sort of drifts beneath the trough flow and focuses on a stalled mid lat front draped across our region from VA-S NE.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_0z/mrfloop2.html

(look at H5 from Hr72-180).

This week's precip from convection could set the stage for saturated ground as the predecessor/set up to this threat.

I'll try to add more later. Just wanted to get the ball rolling (as it were)
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