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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
55 years old
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
Born May-22-1960
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On Fb as the WxWiinii
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Joined: 12-February 10
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Local Time: Jul 4 2015, 01:03 PM
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Undertakerson

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20 Jun 2015
Well gang, it's finally looking like it's going to happen! The much discussed, ballyhood and otherwise hyped golf throw down challenge is scheduled. Plans are being finalized as I type this. ohmy.gif

MidAtl members ST, RyanDuff, rtcemc, and yours truly will be slamming off the tee boxes and hacking up the fairways on 7/1/2015.

With due apologies for not being able to arrange a full out forum member outing, I thought you might like to participate, however tangentially, through this thread.

Here are some suggested subject on which you can provide your outlook (trying to keep the weather theme in here somewhere)

On the day of the outing ( in E PA) the weather Gods will:

A) Smile favorably upon the foursome - upper 70's, partly cloudy, slight breeze

cool.gif Exact vengeance upon the foursome - lower to mid 70's, moderate rain with ch/tshower, winds N >10mph

C) Make life miserable during the round - mid 80's, humid, no breeze

D) Who cares? I was not invited so it's raspberries, to each of them.

AND to keep it silly

Forecast the biggest gaff (as decided among the outing group) will be seen, on course, that day.

Or you could just put up general forecast thoughts - (remember this will be in East Central PA).

UTS

14 Jun 2015
Gaining confidence in the development of tropical activity in the GOM, via current Invest 91-L TS Bill Remnants of once TS Bill has prompted me to open this thread for discussion. Not of the tropical system, per se, but the potential for heavy rainfall in the region.

Let's start with the WPC disco

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

VALID 12Z WED JUN 17 2015 - 12Z SUN JUN 21 2015

*** THE WRN GULF COAST/ARK-LA-TEX IS VULNERABLE TO EXCESSIVE RAINS
THAT SPREAD NEWD TO THE E-CENTRAL US ***


...PATTERN OVERVIEW...

HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE SRN TIER
OF THE NATION NEXT WEEK...KEEPING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS
STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/NRN MID-ATLANTIC BACK TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A WEAKNESS/BREAK IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY ALLOW SYSTEM
ENERGY TO TRACK OUT OF THE WRN GULF...OVER THE S-CENTRAL U.S...AND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL US WITH POOLED TROPICAL
MOISTURE. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED TROUGH NOW OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHIFT INLAND TO TEMPORALLY SUPPRESS RIDGING
IN THE WEST NEXT WEEK AS REPLACED BY TRANSIENT MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING THAT WORKS INTO THE N-CENTRAL US NEXT WEEKEND.


...MODEL EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES...

GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN...BUT HAS YET TO LOCK IN ON SOME IMPORTANT DETAIL
DIFFERENCES. AN EARLY FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE BREAK/WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE EVOLUTION OF ANY TROPICAL ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE WRN GULF AS MONITORED BY THE NHC. LATER NEXT
WEEK...UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE DEEP VORTEX OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST HAVE LED TO VARYING MASS FIELD AND CONVECTIVE EMPHASIS
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CONUS. GIVEN THE CONTINUED FLUCTUATIONS AND
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...THE WPC MEDIUM-RANGE
FORECAST SUITE WAS LARGELY BASED OFF A MORE STABLE 18 UTC GEFS
MEAN AND 12 UTC NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS COMPOSITE.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

THE WRN GULF COAST TO THE ARK-LA-TEX WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO
HEAVY RAINS INTO MID-LATE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
GET PULLED NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
AND AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES AS WELL AS THE EVOLUTION
OF THE IMPULSE OF SYSTEM ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE WRN GULF
. HEAVY
RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE
N-CENTRAL US WITH APPROACH OF WRN US HEIGHT FALLS/TROUGHING AS
WELL AS NEAR LINGERING/WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES STALLED OVER THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...AND NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES
.
UNDERNEATH BENEATH THE MAIN RIDGE ALOFT...EXPECT NEAR RECORD HIGHS
OVER PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEANWHILE...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO WITH APPROACH OF HURRICANE
CARLOS THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N AND 100.1 W AS OF THE 03 UTC
NHC ADVISORY.

SCHICHTEL

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

As I posted in the 91-L Tropical thread, this set up is supported by recent 06142015 00z GFS and Euro models which suggest that the system has an affinity to the mid-continental H5 trough, but does not become entrained fully into that flow. Instead, it maintain semi integrity as a quazi cutoff that sort of drifts beneath the trough flow and focuses on a stalled mid lat front draped across our region from VA-S NE.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_0z/mrfloop2.html

(look at H5 from Hr72-180).

This week's precip from convection could set the stage for saturated ground as the predecessor/set up to this threat.

I'll try to add more later. Just wanted to get the ball rolling (as it were)
4 Jun 2015
If it is early week here in PA, a storm HAS to be in the offing

QUOTE
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL
SWRLY FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE
AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
WNW FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

I'll try to add some maps and detail, WPC disco, etc. - later on today.

Just thought I'd open this so we have something (other than below average temps) to discuss. smile.gif

Edit - I guess I must really love the month of MAY! (original title) - my mind refuses to acknowledge it as history. laugh.gif
21 May 2015
Since tomorrow is the very important start to the Holiday weekend - and because we have a split decision cool-warm, I thought it would be worthy of discussion.

We go from below average temps - to slightly above in much of the region - evidenced by the current CTP forecasts

QUOTE
140
FXUS61 KCTP 212129
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
529 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER CHILLY START
TO THE WEEKEND. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

I do see some potential for storms to herald the end of the Holiday, but the set up is marginal and depends on the progress of what appears to be a few warm fronts.

The H5 flow wants to jump well to the north and leave us under the influence of a weak but steady feed from the south and west

Without much spin in the atmosphere, I would think most storms would have to rely more on temperature contrast if they are to become anything at all. Most likely we'll see "garden variety" T storms and mostly well below severe.

So enjoy your weekend all, be safe and be kind.

UTS
15 May 2015
I don't have a lot of time to post models and such - apology in advance. Decided to open for what appears to be the next legitimate threat for sub severe to possible low end severe storms in the region.


Monday

Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Monday Night

Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?C...45#.VVXL-OlFBdj

Support via the 0z GFS (5/15/15) as the mid level moisture and the H5 vorticity align - temperature contrast should be a bit more notable than recent events near the beginning of the month. (Hr84-96)

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_0z/mrfloop2.html

SPC says potential too low ATTM but could the situation could warrant updating

QUOTE
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 150853
SPC AC 150853

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A STOUT ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON D4/MON AND
POTENTIALLY PERSIST OVER THE N-CNTRL STATES TO MIDWEST THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO
PARTS OF THE S-CNTRL/SE STATES BY D5/TUE. THIS SHOULD BE ALIGNED
WITH RELATIVELY MODEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND PROBABLY CONFINE
LOWER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT PLAINS. A
COMPARATIVE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SWLYS IS STILL EVIDENT ON D5/TUE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOWER-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NE
ACROSS THE SW STATES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DAMPENING
THIS FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THE SPATIAL OVERLAP OF MODERATE/STRONG
MID/UPPER FLOW MAY BE QUITE CONFINED WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED...SETUP IS TOO MARGINAL
FOR AN AREA THIS OUTLOOK.

..GRAMS.. 05/15/2015

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
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