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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
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Undertakerson

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4 Sep 2014
I'm on a roll with thread opening - not much action which I can't blame due to so much of the summer being somewhat "usual".

As others have mentioned in the severe thread, next Thursday is being portrayed by the GFS to be very rainy for the region.

I'll let the picture say it all to start - 12zGFS Hr 174

Attached Image


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html

Looks like a classic heavy precip event - western ridge, deep negative trough, phased (to some extent at least) northern stream and southern (via Norbert). If this were winter, the thread would have been started 3 days ago and already have 7-10 pages

Even at this stage the QPF output is noteable (12z GFS precip, via Twisterdata)

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=...p;archive=false

Appears to have a tap of the H7 levels and H8.5 from both the GOM and Atl - though not long duration at the same time. A day ago the GFS made this system eject at Delmarva Penn, last night I think GFS had it up the W Apps, now today - middle ground.

Post storm, via the Euro Hr 216- notice anything you haven't seen for quite a while? (hint, lower right panel)
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=...p;archive=false
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
3 Sep 2014
Set up is the very warm and humid air compliments of the SER dominating the flow via return southerlies to the region. Appears to be capped by mid-level warmth on Friday. Approaching cold front enters the region sometime late Friday or Saturday. Depending on which model one views, the passage would be either early Saturday (GFS/Euro) or late Saturday (NAM). Note that the system responsible for dragging the front along is currently in the NW US and is making some news of it's own.

http://www.kpax.com/news/weather-forecast-...likely-tonight/

12zGEFS - right hand panel showing the ensembles, which seem to be, if anything, mostly faster than the Op model

Attached Image


I'm thinking this could mean the front moves in even faster, something we saw in some earlier frontal passage situations, but I'm not sure of lately. That could lead to a Friday evening passage - but if it doesn't speed up by at least 12 hours, it would tend to make it a later Friday event and loss of heating would keep storms to less than severe.

However, the global big boys sometimes struggle with small details, even at D3 - so they may not be seeing something that the NAM is catching onto (I know, unlikely, but still...)

18z NAM

Attached Image


Beyond the timing differences, the GFS is trying to show some shearing of the system whereas the NAM keeps the H5 profile much more compact. We've seen the NAM exaggerate system strength in past situations, so that begs for discarding it here.

Yet, the system is quite potent as is

Attached Image

And the airmass awaiting looks almost, if not as much as, what we just sat through yesterday.

SPC gives this but scant mention in their D4-8 - so we have to figure this out for ourselves - for now.
1 Sep 2014
I thought I would open this just for those who want to make note of how warm it gets in their zones. With NWS State College pushing mid-upper 80, near 90 here on Tuesday as the SER continues to pump the humidity and the long wave H5 pattern supplies the southwesterly flow.


.
QUOTE
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE SHEARING
OUT MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH SOME RESPECTABLE WINDS
ALOFT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STRONGER STORMS
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS NOT OUTLOOKED US FOR SEVERE
CITING THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND PROGGED MEAGER LAPSE RATES...AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NW TO NEAR 90 OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF MILD AND LESS HUMID WEATHER. THE HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
12 Aug 2014
I decided to jump the gun and open this thread to discuss the potential warm up FINALLY (?) coming to most of the region.

I based my thoughts (see LR summer thread) on the pattern finally becoming less blocky which I had attributed, mainly, to the large scale amplification of the mean flow (as an aside, I recall posting last year - an article on Phys.Org about what would drive an increasingly amplified pattern), AND that the push off the NW Pac zone would translate the heat of seat to the east.

Part One - the blocking

For some reason the CPC site is not showing the D5-9 blocking pattern, so I had to rely on the MREF's and loop the images to see that the western block detaches from the ridge and seems to absorb northward. The eastern block also relaxes in the Atlantic and it may be fairer to say it translocates to a more standard SER configuration.

12z MREFS http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_1...nsloopmref.html

This "backing in" of the SER should drive heat and humidity in the usual fashion. Especially this summer, it will likely get mighty uncomfortable for many who have seen a less than scorching summer.

As per the 12z GFS - it seems to show the 20c 850 zone very close by or directly over parts of the region during this period (follow link to MREFs - switch screen to Ewall Home and select GFS12z)


The relaxation of both blocks will favor a flooding of Pacific air to move along the N US border - shutting off the frequent visits from our friends in the Great White North, or at least, blunting their blows.

Of course, the increase in heat and humidity will drive afternoon T storms and we'll have to watch for added fire should any cool fronts be in the offing - such as around the 19th.

Here is what CTP had to say earlier.

QUOTE
FOR THE VERY EXTENDED THE ECMWF SHOWS A RARE...FOR THIS
SUMMER...SURGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 5900M ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR A TROUGH TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS SUMMER...THIS SOLUTION HAS TO BE VIEWED DUBIOUSLY AT THIS
TIME...BUT MAY GIVE HOPE TO REAL SUMMER LOVERS THAT WE COULD HAVE
AT LEAST ONE TRUE HEAT WAVE IN STORE FOR US.


So - what say you all? Another bluff towards summer heat (wave?) or the only REAL threat we are to see?
1 Aug 2014
Thought I'd create a thread so any who care to can post rainfall tallies in their zones.

Someone could get mighty wet - looks like most at risk is the coastal plain, especially to the south. But it wouldn't take much of a shift for areas back towards the spine of the Apps to get in on the "action"

Attached Image


QUOTE
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Valid 12Z Fri Aug 1 2014 - 12Z Sun Aug 3 2014

***Rainy conditions with stalled front near East Coast***

***Numerous showers and thunderstorms for the Rockies***


A return to warmer and more humid weather can be expected for the East
Coast states as the recent cool air mass lifts northward into Canada. The
frontal boundary near the Gulf coast is developing a wave of low pressure
along it that is expected to bring a warm front near the Mid-Atlantic
coast by Friday evening, and this will bring widespread rain and embedded
thunderstorms from the Carolinas to southern New England. Warm and humid
air over-riding cooler air inland will be the main forcing mechanism for
rain.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdspd
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7 Sep 2014 - 3:06


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