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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
56 years old
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Born May-22-1960
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On Fb as the WxWiinii
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Local Time: Jul 26 2016, 02:24 AM
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Undertakerson

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24 Jul 2016
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rloop.html

Opening a place to discuss tomorrow's potential. 4K NAM (12z today) has shown an increased signal for convection.

There appears to be a dual wave threat though - one in the a.m. and one later in the afternoon. The afternoon threat would depend, largely, on how the a.m. threat leaves the atmosphere.

Attached Image


This will update in about an hour.
19 Jul 2016
This one appears to be for real folks.

I'll start with good ol' Vojo on the extended desk.

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
152 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

VALID 12Z FRI JUL 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JUL 26 2016

THE MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE AND 500MB PACKAGE UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE
18/12Z ECENS/CANADIAN MEANS --- BOTH OF WHICH MAINTAIN A STRONGER
MID-LATITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 (VS THE 18/12Z GEFS)
THROUGH DAY 7. FOR NATIONAL TEMPS/POPS --- THE 18/12Z ECENS/NAEFS
MEANS WERE USED THROUGH DAY 7 --- AND THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF
UNTIL 24/12Z.

SOME OF THE 18/12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WAS HELPFUL---THOUGH THE
SAME ISSUES ACROSS CANADA, ALASKA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MAKE
ANY CHOICE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ERROR BEYOND DAY 4 (24/00Z) ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES (FROM THE DAKOTAS TO MAINE).

WHAT LOOKED LIKE AN EASY FORECAST PATTERN FOUR DAYS AGO--- STILL
LOOKS EASY. BUT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WANTS TO PHASE A SERIES
OF EAST PACIFIC SYSTEMS WITH ARCTIC FLOW. AND THE RESULTING
SOLUTIONS DOWNSTREAM FOR THE LOWER 48 SEEM 'OVERDONE' WITH THE
'WEAKENING' OF THIS SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 38N
LATITUDE. HERE AGAIN...THE 'OVERDONE' SEEMS TO BE A DIRECT RESULT
OF CONVECTION AND THEIR 'EFFECTIVE' FRONTAL PROGRESSIONS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS. DIFFICULT TO USE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BEYOND DAY 4 IN THE MEDIUM RANGE---
WHEN THE OUTCOME IS CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED AND BOUNCING FROM AREA TO
AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN (FOR THE LOWER 48) IS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
STRENGTH/TIMING AND THEIR DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION. ALTHOUGH 500MB
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE LOW-LEVEL
MIXING AND ORGANIZED OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME TEMPERATURE
CHALLENGES ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE OHIO AND MISSOURI VALLEYS
TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. WHAT RAIN-COOLED AIR
CAN SPILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ONTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS
--- WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE (EITHER HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S OR CLOUD FREE AND AROUND 100F NEXT WEEKEND BETWEEN
LONG ISLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND --- WESTWARD TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

ABOUT THE ONLY 'CERTAINTY' SEEMS TO BE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES, ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND---WHERE 'TRUE'
COLD ADVECTION AND THE MODIFIED-ARCTIC AIR HAS A DECENT CHANCE TO
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE IS SOME 'HINT' THAT AN MCS-LIKE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC --- THEN ROLL
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A RARE CASE WHEN THE MEDIUM RANGE HAS TO
ACTUALLY LOOK FOR SOMETHING EMERGING 'OUTSIDE' THE USUAL SOURCE
REGION(S).

NOT ONLY IS THIS A QUESTION MARK ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONTINENT.
..BUT ALSO FOR WESTERN CANADA, THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. SHOULD THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FLOW
FAIL TO INCORPORATE SOME/ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...THEN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UP THE
WEST COAST. RIGHT NOW...THE MEANS KEEP ENOUGH ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO KEEP THE RIDGE
'FLAT' --- ALBEIT A 582DM TO 588DM 'FLAT' HEIGHT CONTOUR ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER --- AND 'DRY' WITH NO SHOT OF A
MONSOON-LIKE SURGE INTO INTERIOR CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. I
SUSPECT THIS PORTION OF THE RIDGE HAS MORE 'SURPRISES' IN STORE
--- WITH MORE 'MID-LEVEL' CONVECTION THAN THE 18/12Z GUIDANCE IS
LEADING ON WITH.

VOJTESAK


Attached Image


AFD CTP
QUOTE
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Increasing heat/humidity begins Thursday, as sfc high passes off
the Mid Atl coast and return sw flow develops
. Bulk of med range
guidance keeps Central Pa dry Thursday. However, there is building
confidence in a round of convection Friday assoc with passage of
shortwave. Behind this feature, both 00Z ECENS and NAEFS indicate
anomalous upper lvl ridging building into Pa over the weekend,
which should bring hot wx and suppress convection
. Next chance of
widespread shra/tsra appears likely to come early next week, as
another shortwave and assoc cold front works se from the Grt Lks.

ECENS/NAEFS mean 8h temps are near 20C Friday through Monday,
indicating the potential of several days in a row with highs at or
above 90F in the valleys
.

14 Jul 2016
So we don't have to clog up MaineJay's drought thread with storm discussion... laugh.gif

Attached Image


QUOTE
...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PA/MUCH OF NY/WESTERN CT AND MA/VT/NH/WEST
AND NORTH ME...
14/00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES. DESPITE
WEAK LAPSE RATES...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN AIR MASS
MOISTENING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE
/MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J PER KG/. THE TIMING OF THE OH
VALLEY MIDLEVEL TROUGH INTO PA/NY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY LATE MORNING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA OF THE U.S. TODAY...FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION
IN VICINITY OF LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE. A LEE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN PA. STRENGTHENING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND
BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
1 Jul 2016
Looks like the southern ridge structure wants to translate east towards the s/e corner of the US. GFS appears to be most aggressive with the strength.

CTP mentions in their extended disco

QUOTE
In the longer range, NAEFS and ECENS both showing rising heights
across the ne conus during next week, as center of subtropical
ridge migrates from the sw states to the se states
. ECENS mean 8h
temps rise to arnd 20c by late week, suggesting we will see max
temps nr 90F at that time.


Euro also shows the potential, but doesn't appear to be as strong with the notion.

Not sure we'll make HW criteria, but many areas (even up into NE) should challenge the threshold.
8 Jun 2016
If at first, you don't succeed, try to open a severe thread again.

Just to keep this separate from the cool shot discussion. If JD wants to merge, I have no issues

D4 SPC disco

QUOTE
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080809
SPC AC 080809

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2016

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY
FROM OHIO AND POSSIBLY SERN LOWER MI ACROSS PA AND PERHAPS EXTENDING
EWD INTO SURROUNDING STATES.
ECMWF SHOWS STORMS FROM LAKE ERIE INTO
CENTRAL AND ERN PA DURING THE DAY...CONTINUING ACROSS NJ SAT
EVENING...WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER W FROM WRN PA INTO OH. GIVEN
AMPLE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FROM THE W...A CORRIDOR OF SEVERE APPEARS LIKELY ALTHOUGH PRECISE
PLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST RISK WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT IN LATER
OUTLOOKS
.
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.


Attached Image

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

AFDCTP
QUOTE
A corridor of severe weather potential/northwest flow convective
event remains a concern on Saturday /June 11th/ as models depict a
shortwave trough rounding the hot Central U.S. upper ridge with
strong jet max nosing into PA. SPC maintained their previous 15%
severe prob/D4 SLGT risk over central PA, noting some level of
increasing confidence in severe storm potential although the exact
placement of greatest risk is still in questions. We will continue
to highlight the severe weather risk fro Saturday, June 11th in
the HWO.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
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