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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
55 years old
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
Born May-22-1960
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On Fb as the WxWiinii
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Joined: 12-February 10
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Local Time: May 22 2015, 12:01 PM
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Undertakerson

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21 May 2015
Since tomorrow is the very important start to the Holiday weekend - and because we have a split decision cool-warm, I thought it would be worthy of discussion.

We go from below average temps - to slightly above in much of the region - evidenced by the current CTP forecasts

QUOTE
140
FXUS61 KCTP 212129
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
529 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER CHILLY START
TO THE WEEKEND. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

I do see some potential for storms to herald the end of the Holiday, but the set up is marginal and depends on the progress of what appears to be a few warm fronts.

The H5 flow wants to jump well to the north and leave us under the influence of a weak but steady feed from the south and west

Without much spin in the atmosphere, I would think most storms would have to rely more on temperature contrast if they are to become anything at all. Most likely we'll see "garden variety" T storms and mostly well below severe.

So enjoy your weekend all, be safe and be kind.

UTS
15 May 2015
I don't have a lot of time to post models and such - apology in advance. Decided to open for what appears to be the next legitimate threat for sub severe to possible low end severe storms in the region.


Monday

Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Monday Night

Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?C...45#.VVXL-OlFBdj

Support via the 0z GFS (5/15/15) as the mid level moisture and the H5 vorticity align - temperature contrast should be a bit more notable than recent events near the beginning of the month. (Hr84-96)

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_0z/mrfloop2.html

SPC says potential too low ATTM but could the situation could warrant updating

QUOTE
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 150853
SPC AC 150853

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A STOUT ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON D4/MON AND
POTENTIALLY PERSIST OVER THE N-CNTRL STATES TO MIDWEST THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO
PARTS OF THE S-CNTRL/SE STATES BY D5/TUE. THIS SHOULD BE ALIGNED
WITH RELATIVELY MODEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND PROBABLY CONFINE
LOWER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT PLAINS. A
COMPARATIVE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SWLYS IS STILL EVIDENT ON D5/TUE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOWER-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NE
ACROSS THE SW STATES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DAMPENING
THIS FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THE SPATIAL OVERLAP OF MODERATE/STRONG
MID/UPPER FLOW MAY BE QUITE CONFINED WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED...SETUP IS TOO MARGINAL
FOR AN AREA THIS OUTLOOK.

..GRAMS.. 05/15/2015

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
30 Apr 2015
Those of us above 40N still need some rain (well, at least in the Mid Atl) now that the current threat is looking to do little in the way of making up deficits (CTP ~1.00" behind at this point)

Next chance seems to be as a front hangs up somewhere in the region, serving as the focus for enhanced precip chances/


Hr132 of the 12z GFS (4/30) shows an increase in the H5 vorticity (over its own previous runs), and decent H7 (mid level) moisture to work with (upper and lower left panels respectively)

Attached Image


The temps out ahead of this should be near 10+F over seasonal averages with the air behind it "relatively" cooler - so while temp contrast may play a role in developing CAPE, right now it's not all that strong.

CTP says widespread 70's - which typically means 70 or so in the northern tier - to near 80 (+?) for the southern third of the State. I would expect NJ to be similar and areas S of 40N a bit more in the way of highs leading to destabilization that may make up for the lack of vorticity and mid level moisture.

Therefore, I could see us getting into rumbles of T Storms and associated heavy rainfall within. I wouldn't think that severe storms would become an issue - but it bears watching for the potential of, at least, discrete pulse type storm that could merge into a more serious situation.

The Euro does not seem to present much energy but does have a "dimple" H5 reflection at Hr120 which indicates there should be some spin showing up in that model as we draw closer.

Parameters for more serious or severe as they plot at this much lead time, mean a bit less than in the short range. So I will let this play out before even looking seriously at CAPE, Shear, etc.

I would think, NE, as has been the case for quite a while, stays in the cool side of the front and would not likely see much action above the C NYS meridian.
26 Mar 2015
Opening a separate thread to discuss the slight to marginal chance of severe storms. Confined mostly to the MidAlt states, the shear is upwards to 80 and the CAPE in the zones near 40N is plenty to touch off some convection.

Attached Image


Attached Image




http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32309
Attached Image


Sounding do not appear overly impressive at this time, but we'll keep an eye for rapid cooling at heights to show an increase as the strong front approaches. I would think Hail and wind are the main threats, but a discrete spinner may yet be in the offing.

Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
26 Mar 2015
OK - let's do this, why not?

You all have kept up in the 3/28-29 thread, mentioning this threat several times. The 06z GFS holds serve with the possible aptly named "Nor'Easter".

Attached Image

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...=0&ypos=219

Verbatim, this would yield up to a foot of snow for NY on north and from a coating to a half a foot possible from the DC region up into the Poconos - a 985mb at the 40/70 benchmark would do just that. wink.gif
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