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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
56 years old
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Born May-22-1960
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On Fb as the WxWiinii
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Undertakerson

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15 Jan 2017
In the spirit of "why not", and particularly because we've been mentioning this time period in the 17-20th thread, I've decided to go ahead and open this for discussion within its own thread.

A few of us, who shall at present, remain nameless - have been looking at this time period for the potential of a multiple phase scenario, based on assessment of upper air pattern signals plus OFM signals (which may be for just beyond this time period, but I believe are comparable in the main)

To start off, I'll show the most recent 12z GFS Op run - and will add other thoughts and maps as I go along.

Verbatim, there have been mostly "warm" solutions for our region, but a few ensemble members suggest otherwise.

This GFS run features a SLP at MDBR's house, with flooding type rain for UTS Hill. Issue remains, how strong does this become and can it, therefore, manufacture (as it were) any cold air?

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H5 look for next frame. HOLY MOLY

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Here's a look at 00z EURO blink.gif (via MeteoCentre site)
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Whether the two shall meet, where they meet, how they meet - all important discussion points. Could create a separate thread for the dates past this one, to boot.

Fun times
14 Jan 2017
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Precip has broken out over C VA. Figured I'd better open this up for discussion.

For my zones, I've made an earlier call of 2-3, but have to trim that back. Yet, as Clapper and others commented on the original thread, recent meso guidance shows some northern push to the precip.

Latest HRRR doesn't show any snow down my way until 10-11 or so, not really getting going until even later (as in maybe 4 p.m.) Afternoon and evening though, shows some "oomph". Ends up with this:

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And the "Exp" version this:

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6 Jan 2017
With reports of snow fall coming out of VA (Shenandoah most recently) figured time to open this up.

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30 Dec 2016
I'm going to attempt to keep this threat separate from the one being discussed in the other thread for the 7-9. As per Guidelines, only one storm per thread - so I thought creating this one's own space might help in that regard.

First up, the OFM correlation, posted by Msrs Renken and Clapper in the OFM Thread

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Edit to add that EAR support is evident as well

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Here's the link so you can get the animation http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...p;#entry2164166

Next. the latest 00z Euro, 4 panel view

Blue arrow shows wrinkle in the flow, indicative of a parcel of shortwave energy - the lower left panel is the H7 moisture content, showing a decent amount of moisture in the layer where the best precip clouds form. As you can see, this would be (verbatim) a primarily MidAlt event, but S New England could get scraped.

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The just in 6z GFS is remarkably similar with the handling of this time frame


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So, in summary - we have a relatively weak shortwave that is moving swiftly through the flow. There is cold air in place after an early week warm up. (when there's a warm up in winter, watch out for what follows - JDRenken), bringing up some return off the GOM (but not a ton).

Should result in one of those 2-4" mostly snow events for much of the MidAtl, mostly aligned well with 40N and S of there.

Oh yeah, almost forgot. This time period starts the annual PA Farm Show. Therefore, we have Bering Sea Rule, East Asia Rule, agreement among the top two global models, AND the Farm Show Rule (LOL) - what could go wrong? laugh.gif

Seriously though, this could set up the trailer system (or not, depending on exact evolution)
18 Dec 2016
Figured we might as well have a thread to discuss Christmas. Some have mentioned, in MJ's pre-Christmas thread, that the pattern keeps delivering storms and cold air is close enough to be available for some of them or certain portions of them.

First I'm posting this shell, but will edit this post for more inclusive reasoning/thoughts.

May as well start with the GFS, since the 12z Op version is just now available.

Whoa, 1045mb SHP over top a developing system within a long wave trough. That strength would really pin the CAD and cold even beyond the traditional CAD regions

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Compare to its 00z run, where the SHP is stronger, but East of the approaching system

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That leads to the system "cutting" up behind the strong high (warm scenario)

Position of 12z Op has the SHP almost ideally placed, so leads to a cooler solution. Here's the resulting snow map - please accept this as illustrative purpose only - not verbatim amounts. IOW shows where the cooler solution sees at least some snow.
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Now - look at the 6z run, not really like the ones surrounding it.
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